1. The Cognitive Calculus Theory of Decision-Making:Explaining British Foreign Policy Choices in 1938.
- Author
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Gronich, Lori Helene
- Subjects
- *
DECISION making , *CALCULUS , *THEORY , *SOCIAL psychology , *COGNITIVE psychology ,BRITISH foreign relations - Abstract
This paper develops the cognitive calculus theory of decision-making. The theory is derived deductively from experimental evidence in social and cognitive psychology, and is based on the notion that all people are cognitive misers or cognitive processing cost-minimizers who unconsciously prefer judgments that are mentally cheap to those that are mentally dear. It proposes that the relative miserliness of any foreign policy choice depends on three distinct variables: the decision-making stage (problem definition or solution definition), a decision-maker's role assignment (leader or advisor), and his or her level of knowledge (novice to expert). And it argues that when circumstances are fluid enough for people to disagree, it is the cognitive cost of making policy judgments (low to high) that accounts for systematic differences between civilian and military specialists in choices of war and peace. Evidence from the British decisions for peace in 1938 confirm the explanatory power of the new theory and extend earlier work on several American cases including studies of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the 1968 turn toward peace, and the 2001 decision for war. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007