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In this paper, we follow Bresser-Pereira et al. (2021) and estimate for Mexico a a series of the real exchange rate (RER) that balances the current account for Mexico for the period 2001q1-2019q4. In this process we take into account numerous determinants, including policy variables and financial indicators the evolution of the terms of trade, as well as a proxi for the Balassa-Samuelson effects, inter alia. Our results show that in most of the period analyzed there has been a trend tendency towards overvaluation, with the RER fluctuating above its equilibrium level. With cointegrating methods, and dynamic ordinary least squared (DOLS) techniques, we examined the effects of exchange rate under and overvaluation on manufacturing; disaggregated in three sectors: i) technology intensive, ii) natural resource intensive and iii) labor intensive activities. Overall, our results indicate that the real exchange rate has a significant influence on the rate of expansion of Mexico's manufacturing real GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Previous studies have found that a tightening of the balance of payments (BP) constraint can explain the slowdown in Mexico's growth after its trade liberalization in the late 1980s. This paper develops a disaggregated model of the BP constraint with two types of exports (manufactures and primary commodities) and two types of imports (intermediate and final goods). Econometric estimates (including tests for structural breaks) show that the BP-equilibrium growth rate did not fall, but instead rose in the post-liberalization period, so this model cannot account for the country's growth slowdown. Instead, the analysis points to the need to consider the real exchange rate as well as internal obstacles and policies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The remittances sent by Mexican migrants in the USA are relevant for recipient household at least in two senses. First, they contribute to rise income, and therefore to diminish poverty level. Second, they also contribute to regional and local economic development via the multipliers generated by the increases of the demand and of the investment in productive activities. Nonetheless, there are several estimations of household remittances magnitude. This paper analyzes the methodologies of Banco de Mexico (Mexican central bank) and those of recognized researchers. There is no consensus regarding the amount of money transferred by Mexican migrants in the USA. Consequently, the positive effects upon the recipient economy may not be conclusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an extended model that includes Thirlwall's simple rule. Growth in Mexico fell from an annual average of 6.76% in 1961-1981 to 2.95% in the 1982-2004 period. Net lows of capital, rents and transfers promote and stabilize the economy, but devaluation does not improve growth. Income growth rates and income elasticities between Mexico and the United States have become equal, which prevents convergence of per capita income. Mexico must design and implement an industrial policy if it wants to increase its rate of growth and face the fall of oil reserves and the changes in US immigration policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The remittances sent by Mexican migrants in the USA are relevant for recipient household at least in two senses. First, they contribute to rise income, and therefore to diminish poverty level. Second, they also contribute to regional and local economic development via the multipliers generated by the increases of the demand and of the investment in productive activities. Nonetheless, there are several estimations of household remittances magnitude. This paper analyzes the methodologies of Banco de Mexico (Mexican central bank) and those of recognized researchers. There is no consensus regarding the amount of money transferred by Mexican migrants in the USA. Consequently, the positive effects upon the recipient economy may not be conclusive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the effects of exogenous changes in the terms of trade on short term fluctuations of the balance of payment in Mexico (concerning a monetary approach and a fixed exchange rate), during 1948-1984. Variations in the terms of trade are here stated to repercuss on transformations of real activities and through them on the demand for real balances and on the balance of payments. A wide description and use of Granger and Sims techniques are made in the document to prove the causal patterns of a double variable system (domestic monetary variables and inflation) given the implicit assumption of the model that considers the exogenous character of the inflation rate with regard to the domestic monetary variables. The results obtained from the model allow to stress the importance of and concern for variations in the terms of trade concerning the real activity as well as the balance of payment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]