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This work focuses on the development of a combined statistical-mechanical approach to predict changes in landslide displacement rates from observed changes in rainfall amounts. The forecasting tool FLAME (Forecasting Landslides Accelerations induced by Meteorological Events) associates (1) a statistical impulse response (IR) model to simulate the changes in landslide rates by computing a transfer function between the input signal (e.g. rainfall) and the output signal (e.g. displacement) and (2) a simple 1D mechanical (MA) model (e.g. viscoplastic rheology) to take into account changes in pore water pressure. The models have been applied to forecast the displacement rates at the Super-Sauze landslide (South East France). The performance of different combinations of models (IR model alone, MA model alone and a combination of the IR and MA models) is evaluated against observed changes in pore water pressures and displacement rates at the study site. Results indicate that the three models are able to reproduce the displacement pattern in the general kinematic regime (succession of acceleration and deceleration phases); conversely, extreme kinematic regimes such as fluidization of part of the landslide mass are not being reproduced. The approach constitutes however a robust tool to predict changes in displacement rates from rainfall or groundwater time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wired and wireless monitoring system installed in the Rebaixader catchment detected six debris flows and 11 debris floods between 2009 and 2012. Apart from results directly related to the processes, many experiences associated with monitoring were collected. Debris flows and debris floods showed clear differences in both the recorded data and field observations. The distinction was especially visible in the stage measurements and the ground vibration registered by the most downstream geophone. At this geophone, a positive relation between the maximum ground vibration and the volume was also observed. The triggering of most events was associated with short, high-intensity rainstorms in summer, but some were also generated in spring, when the melting of snow cover and frozen soil played an additional role. A positive correlation between the volume and both the amount and the intensity of the triggering rainfall was observed. Regarding technical aspects, a switch between a 'no-event' mode with a low sample rate and an 'event' mode with a fast sampling was particularly useful at the station that register the passing of a flow. In addition, the stations, which most recently were installed at Rebaixader, apply wireless devices because wireless techniques include multiple advantages against standard wired systems. Although recorded data or even video images provide detailed information on the debris-flow behavior, we strongly recommend periodic field surveys along the entire torrent to verify and improve the interpretation obtained from the monitoring system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]