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This work investigates potential cost reduction trajectories of three emerging offshore renewable energy technologies (floating offshore wind, tidal stream, and wave) with respect to meeting ambitious cost targets set out in the Strategic Energy Technology Implementation Plans (SET-Plans) for Offshore Wind and Ocean Energy. A methodology is presented which calculates target costs for current early-stage devices, starting from the 2030 SET-Plan levelised cost targets. Component-based experience curves have been applied as part of the methodology, characterised through the comparative maturity level of each technology-specific cost centre. The resultant early-stage target costs are then compared with actual costs for current devices to highlight where further cost reduction is still required. It has been found that innovation and development requirements to reach these targets vary greatly between different technologies, based on their current level of technological maturity. Future funding calls and programmes should be designed with these variables in mind to support innovative developments in offshore renewables. The method presented in this paper has been applied to publicly available cost data for emerging renewable technologies and is fully adaptable to calculate the innovation requirements for specific early-stage renewable energy devices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Methodology for capital and operational indicators estimation is presented. • Introducing stochastic operation and maintenance modelling for uncertainty reduction. • Reference database for further works on floating wind farms provided. • Results shows agreement with observed values for offshore wind projects. • Comparison against previous work shows underestimation of operational costs. Floating offshore wind is rapidly gaining traction in deep water locations. As with all new technologies, to gain the confidence of developers and investors, the technical and economic feasibility of this technology must be proven and robust cost estimates are necessary. In this paper, the authors present a methodology to calculate the capital and operational indicators of a floating wind farm over its project lifetime. A set of computational models is used to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the technical and economical parameters. In particular, the effect of using detailed operation and maintenance models and strategies allows a better estimation of operational cost. The paper highlights the requirements and specific adjustments considered for floating offshore wind technology. The methodology is demonstrated for two case studies inspired by real floating wind installations in the United Kingdom, namely the Hywind and Kincardine projects. The related input data, gathered from publicly available sources, constitute a reference database for future studies in the floating offshore wind sector. Results are presented for the two case studies. These show that availability and energy production are in line with typical values for offshore wind projects, and highlight the substantial contribution of operational expenses to the cost of energy. Results are also compared against previous estimations for floating offshore wind projects, showing satisfactory agreement for the overall project costs but an underestimation of operation and maintenance costs in previous studies. This highlights the importance of using detailed operation and maintenance models to adequately capture operational expenses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]