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The study uses numerical weather prediction models to predict the occurrence of heavy convective rainfall associated with the passage of the African Easterly Wave (AEW) during the period 23–26 August 2017 over Nigeria. Fraction skill score (FSS) and method for object‐based diagnostic evaluation (MODE) verification techniques were applied to verify how well the models predict the high‐impact event and to demonstrate how these tools can support operational forecasting. Ensemble model forecasts at a convective scale from UK Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and a one‐way nested weather research and forecasting (WRF) model were compared with the integrated multisatellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement (IMERG GPM). The purpose is to examine skills of improved model resolution and ensemble in reproducing rainfall forecasts on useful scales and how the skill varies with spatial scale. WRF 2 and 6 km model forecasts show comparable skill at smaller grid scales. The skill of MetUM improves dramatically when the verification statistics are applied to the ensemble mean of the binary fields of the individual member forecast. The object‐based analysis reveals a similar structure as observed, although displaced eastwards. Most improvement occurred for heavier rainfall events associated with the passage of the AEW. WRF 6 km compares reasonably well with WRF 2 km in terms of shape and structure of rainfall underscoring the ability of the model to reasonably represent convection at 6 km horizontal resolution. The ensemble members in MetUM explicitly reproduce convection at 4 km resolution but are displaced at about 166 km behind observed rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a study based on evaluating different techniques to automatically recognize the basic emotions of people with Down syndrome, such as anger, happiness, sadness, surprise, and neutrality, as well as the statistical analysis of the Facial Action Coding System, determine the symmetry of the Action Units present in each emotion, identify the facial features that represent this group of people. First, a dataset of images of faces of people with Down syndrome classified according to their emotions is built. Then, the characteristics of facial micro-expressions (Action Units) present in the feelings of the target group through statistical analysis are evaluated. This analysis uses the intensity values of the most representative exclusive action units to classify people's emotions. Subsequently, the collected dataset was evaluated using machine learning and deep learning techniques to recognize emotions. In the beginning, different supervised learning techniques were used, with the Support Vector Machine technique obtaining the best precision with a value of 66.20%. In the case of deep learning methods, the mini-Xception convolutional neural network was used to recognize people's emotions with typical development, obtaining an accuracy of 74.8%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notion focus affinity refers to the likelihood that a grammatical role (e.g., subject, object) is the narrow focus of a sentence. There is evidence that such differences exist at the level of distributional data. For example, subjects are less often focal and more often topical as compared to direct objects. However, it is not obvious whether focus affinity is genuinely related to grammatical roles. Focus affinity could be an epiphenomenon of various other linguistic and pragmatic processes or their interactions (e.g., direct objects are more often indefinite, less often animate, more often new than subjects). In our controlled experimental study, we investigate the focus affinity of three adjunct types (instruments, locatives, depictive secondary predicates) in Spanish and provide evidence that these grammatical roles indeed differ with respect to focus affinity. Depictives show the highest degree of focus affinity, followed by instruments and finally locatives. These effects are robust and stable even if we account for a number of possible alternative explanations. Thus, we suggest that focus affinity is a property sufficiently closely associated with grammatical roles to justify more attention both in theoretical linguistic and psycholinguistic literature. • Focus affinity is an understudied information structural concept. • Focus affinities of three adjunct types have been experimentally investigated. • Focus hierarchy: Depictives > Instruments > Locatives. • Differences between grammatical roles are robust even if we consider alternative explanations (e.g., probabilities). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concepts like the 100‐year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20‐, 50‐, and 100‐year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20‐/50‐year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100‐year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments. Plain Language Summary: Here, we provide the first global examination of recent changes in the size, frequency, and probability of extreme river floods using historical river records. Since the 1970s, the 20‐year and 50‐year extreme river floods have mostly increased in temperate zones but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, the 100‐year floods have decreased in arid and temperate zones, and show mixed results in cold zones, but at a smaller sample of sites with long records. Descriptions of changes in extreme flooding depend largely on site selection, and are constrained by availability of long‐term data. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of regularly updating flood hazard assessments under nonstationarity. Key Points: We provide the first global nonstationary assessment of changes in the magnitude, return period, and probability of observed extreme floodsWe find increasing 20‐year and 50‐year floods in temperate climate zones but mostly decreases in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zonesFor the 100‐year floods, at a smaller sample of sites, we find decreases in arid and temperate zones and mixed results elsewhere [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of electric vehicles (EVs) is expected to grow significantly, which calls for effective planning of charging infrastructures. While the planning of the charging infrastructure relies on an accurate charging demands, the behaviours of EVs charging are not always predictable and can be sensitive to many uncertain future environmental factors. Considering such uncertainties, this study aims to robustly and optimally determine the chargers and main switch board (MSB) capacities without violating queuing time constraints and load flow constraints. The non-parametric estimations of charging demands are derived with data-driven charging behaviour analysis considering diverse social factors, including travelling patterns, queuing, and changes of charging facilities. Then, the impacts of the EV integration are modeled by a stochastic load flow program. The samples of the stochastic load flow stipulate the conditional value-at-risk constraints for the planning of chargers and MSBs, which consider the probabilities and scenarios in a box of ambiguity with bounds. Afterwards, by limiting the frequency and severity of constraints violation, the total investment cost is minimized with a distributionally robust optimisation program. Simulation based on a real-world residential community in Singapore is carried out to testify the effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For monodomain nematic elastomers, we construct generalised elastic–nematic constitutive models combining purely elastic and neoclassical-type strain energy densities. Inspired by recent developments in stochastic elasticity, we extend these models to stochastic–elastic–nematic forms, where the model parameters are defined by spatially independent probability density functions at a continuum level. To investigate the behaviour of these systems and demonstrate the effects of the probabilistic parameters, we focus on the classical problem of shear striping in a stretched nematic elastomer for which the solution is given explicitly. We find that, unlike the neoclassical case, where the inhomogeneous deformation occurs within a universal interval that is independent of the elastic modulus, for the elastic–nematic models, the critical interval depends on the material parameters. For the stochastic extension, the bounds of this interval are probabilistic, and the homogeneous and inhomogeneous states compete, in the sense that both have a a given probability to occur. We refer to the inhomogeneous pattern within this interval as 'likely striping'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: The correct interpretation of values from the quadratic deviation is useful in immunology, it is the average of the deviations; therefore, based on this, we can make decisions. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the behavior of leukocyte, total lymphocyte and CD4 values from the set theory when performing the mean square deviation, and extrapolate its utility to the clinic. MATERIAL AND METHOD: A transversal analytical study was done from January 1st to November 30th, 2018, after collecting leukocyte and total lymphocyte values from a blood count, as well as the latest CD4 values of HIV-infected patients, based on the theory of sets, we proceeded to classify by ranges of 1000 leukocytes, to form 10 ranges. Subsequently, it was classified by sets to finally perform the mean square deviation, this being the central axis of the present article. RESULTS: It was observed how the behavior of the probabilities is strongly distributed for total lymphocytes coming from the blood count and CD4 T lymphocytes in the 10 established ranges. For the AUC set, the quadratic deviations took values between 0.25 and 0.50; for the BUD set between 0.19 and 0.50, while for the set (AUC)n(BUD) the deviations were observed between 0.04 and 0.50. CONCLUSIONS: The quadratic deviation and its analysis is usually useful applied to the clinic. The behavior of the probabilities is distributed for both CD4 and general lymphocytes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In large deformations, internally pressurised elastic spherical shells and tubes may undergo a limit-point, or inflation, instability manifested by a rapid transition in which their radii suddenly increase. The possible existence of such an instability depends on the material constitutive model. Here, we revisit this problem in the context of stochastic incompressible hyperelastic materials, and ask the question: what is the probability distribution of stable radially symmetric inflation, such that the internal pressure always increases as the radial stretch increases? For the classic elastic problem, involving isotropic incompressible materials, there is a critical parameter value that strictly separates the cases where inflation instability can occur or not. By contrast, for the stochastic problem, we show that the inherent variability of the probabilistic parameters implies that there is always competition between the two cases. To illustrate this, we draw on published experimental data for rubber, and derive the probability distribution of the corresponding random shear modulus to predict the inflation responses for a spherical shell and a cylindrical tube made of a material characterised by this parameter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trajectory reconstruction in bloodstain pattern analysis is currently performed by assuming that blood drop trajectories are straight along directions inferred from stain inspection. Recently, several attempts have been made at reconstructing ballistic trajectories backwards, considering the effects of gravity and drag forces. Here, we propose a method to reconstruct the region of origin of impact blood spatter patterns that considers fluid dynamics and statistical uncertainties. The fluid dynamics relies on defining for each stain a range of physically possible trajectories, based on known physics of how drops deform, both in flight and upon slanted impact. Statistical uncertainties are estimated and propagated along the calculations, and a probabilistic approach is used to determine the region of origin as a volume most compatible with the backward trajectories. A publicly available data set of impact spatter patterns on a vertical wall with various impactor velocities and distances to target is used to test the model and evaluate its robustness, precision, and accuracy. Results show that the proposed method allows reconstruction of bloodletting events with distances between the wall and blood source larger than ∼1 m. The uncertainty of the method is determined, and its dependency on the distance between the blood source and the wall is characterized. Causes of error and uncertainty are discussed. The proposed method allows the consideration of stains indicating impact velocities that point downwards, which are typically not used for determining the height of the origin. Based on the proposed method, two practical recommendations on crime scene documentation are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: What is the relation between factual conditionals: If A happened then B happened, and counterfactual conditionals: If A had happened then B would have happened? Some theorists propose quite different semantics for the two. In contrast, the theory of mental models and its computer implementation interrelates them. It postulates that both can have a priori truth values, and that the semantic bases of both are possibilities: states that are possible for factual conditionals, and that were once possible but that did not happen for counterfactual conditionals. Two experiments supported these relations. Experiment 1 showed that, like factual conditionals, certain counterfactuals are true a priori, and others are false a priori. Experiment 2 replicated this result and showed that participants selected appropriate paraphrases, referring, respectively, to real and to counterfactual possibilities, for the two sorts of conditional. These results are contrary to alternative accounts of conditionals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Many networks have nodes located in physical space, with links more common between closely spaced pairs of nodes. For example, the nodes could be wireless devices and links communication channels in a wireless mesh network. We describe recent work involving such networks, considering effects due to the geometry (convex, non-convex, and fractal), node distribution, distance-dependent link probability, mobility, directivity, and interference. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The synthesis of iron (Fe-) group elements was different in the early Galaxy than it is today. Measurements of the relative Fe-group elemental abundances in old metal-poor stars yield information on the Galactic chemical evolution and some information on early supernovae (SNe). Improved laboratory data on transition probabilities is essential to this effort. It is also essential to understand and map the limits of standard photospheric models based on one-dimensional and local thermodynamic equilibrium approximations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To provide a mechanistic and probabilistic framework for defining the species pool based on species-specific probabilities of dispersal, environmental suitability and biotic interactions within a specific temporal extent, and to show how probabilistic species pools can help disentangle the geographical structure of different community assembly processes. Innovation Probabilistic species pools provide an improved species pool definition based on probabilities in conjunction with the associated species list, which explicitly recognize the indeterminate nature of species pool membership for a given focal unit of interest and better capture real-world complexity. Probabilistic species pools provide a quantitative assessment of how dispersal, environmental or biotic factors influence estimates of species pool composition and size for a given temporal extent. Conclusions Based on one simulated and two empirical examples we demonstrate that probabilistic species pools allow us to disentangle the geographical variation in dispersal, environmental and biotic assembly processes for species assemblages in focal units. We also show that probabilistic species pools are fully compatible with traditional definitions of species pools and are applicable over a wide range of spatial and temporal extents. Additionally they are robust to missing data and provide a quantified and transparent approach to estimating the size and composition of species pools in a mechanistic way, providing a valuable tool for studies from community ecology to macroecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The differences of the near-surface wind speed ( SWS) between the frictional wind model ( FWM) and the observation are used to reflect the impacts of land use and cover change ( LUCC) on SWS in Eastern China Plain ( ECP). Results show that LUCC makes the range of SWS narrow, which had significantly weakening effect to stronger wind than weaker wind. In addition, the decrease of probabilities for observed gentle breeze ( GB), moderate breeze ( MB), and wind speed greater than or equal to 8 m s−1 ( WSGE8) are more significant in large cities than that in small cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals can shape their timed behaviors based on experienced probabilistic relations in a nearly optimal fashion. On the other hand, it is not clear if they adopt these timed decisions by making computations based on previously learnt task parameters (time intervals, locations, and probabilities) or if they gradually develop their decisions based on trial and error. To address this question, we tested mice in the timed-switching task, which required them to anticipate when (after a short or long delay) and at which of the two delay locations a reward would be presented. The probability of short trials differed between test groups in two experiments. Critically, we first trained mice on relevant task parameters by signaling the active trial with a discriminative stimulus and delivered the corresponding reward after the associated delay without any response requirement (without inducing switching behavior). During the test phase, both options were presented simultaneously to characterize the emergence and temporal characteristics of the switching behavior. Mice exhibited timed-switching behavior starting from the first few test trials, and their performance remained stable throughout testing in the majority of the conditions. Furthermore, as the probability of the short trial increased, mice waited longer before switching from the short to long location (experiment 1). These behavioral adjustments were in directions predicted by reward maximization. These results suggest that rather than gradually adjusting their time-dependent choice behavior, mice abruptly adopted temporal decision strategies by directly integrating their previous knowledge of task parameters into their timed behavior, supporting the model-based representational account of temporal risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the modelling of extreme-capability working platforms that are operated in periodic cycles, each cycle having a predefined number of operations that affect the working surfaces. A novel hypothesis is introduced about the platform-degrading effects that cause an equivalent decrease in the successful operations after repeated cycles. Deterministic modelling, based on the basic equations of Lanchester and Dinner, is generalized here to include coupling between parameters. The newly developed mathematical model of performance degradation is in good agreement with both experimental measurements and numerical simulations. It is assumed that the new variables and their correlations link the Gaussian distribution and the observed performances of the testing platforms. Relative probability dispersions of affected surfaces are derived, as a new indirect referencing figure of merit, to describe simulations and compare them to experimental test data. The model proves a hypothesis that the degrading effects are a function of the platform capacity, frequency of operations and the number of available cycles. Degradation effects are taken into account through an equivalent decrease of effective operation capacities, reflected on the properties of the affected operating surfaces. The obtained estimations of degradation could be used in the planning of platform capacity as well as in the selection of real affected surfaces in various machining systems and for a wide range of different materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Communication between physicians and patients in everyday life is marked by a number of disruptive factors. Apart from specific interests, mistakes, and misunderstandings on both sides, there are main factors that contribute to the risk in risk communication. Using the example of mammography screening, the current work demonstrates how the meaning of test results and the informative value of measures taken to reduce risk are often misunderstood. Finally, the current work provides examples of successful risk communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Decision support based on clinical guidelines is important in medicine. • For comorbid patients, guideline interactions along time must be detected. • We provide a temporal framework supporting both preferences and probabilities. • We provide temporal reasoning and query answering facilities. • Temporal reasoning with preferences and probabilities provides a flexible support. Knowledge-based decision support systems have a long tradition within the medical area. In particular, in the last decades, many Computer-Interpretable Guidelines (CIG) systems have been built to provide evidence-based and knowledge-based support to physicians. Since CIGs are, by definition, devoted to the management of specific diseases, the treatment of comorbid patients constitutes a challenging task in the area, involving (i) the detection of the possible interactions between (the effects of) the actions recommended by multiple CIGs (one for each disease of the patient), (ii) the management of such interactions and, finally, (iii) the conciliation of (the recommendations of) different CIGs. This paper focuses on issue (i) above, and specifically, on an innovative approach to support interaction detection along the temporal dimension. Practically, interactions can only occur between effects that intersect in time. Therefore, interaction detection involves the representation of temporal information (temporal constraints), and temporal reasoning (to propagate such constraints). Additionally, query answering facilities are important to support physicians in the investigation of the results of temporal reasoning. Current CIG approaches that face such issues take into account only "crisp" temporal constraints, i.e., they consider all temporal constraints as equally probable\preferred. However, preferences about the temporal constraints between CIGs actions may be available, as well as knowledge about the probabilistic distribution of the effects of CIGs actions in time. Considering such additional pieces of information can provide crucial advantages, in term of the flexibility and informativeness of the support provided by the CIG system to physicians. In this paper, we propose the first homogeneous approach to represent and reason with (propagate) temporal constraints with both preferences and probabilities . We ground our approach on the widely-used Simple Temporal Problem (STP) framework, which supports temporal reasoning on temporal constraints about possible distances between events. We extend (i) the representation formalism to associate preferences and\or probabilities to the possible distances, and (ii) the operations to propagate the constraints to combine also preferences and probabilities. We also (iii) provide an experimental evaluation of our approach, and (iv) propose a wide range of query-answering supports, to facilitate physicians in the analysis of the results of temporal reasoning in general, and in the temporal detection of possible interactions in particular. Finally, (v) we also show how such a temporal framework is integrated in GLARE-SSCPM, a CIG system to treat comorbid patients, and show the advantages of our approach considering a running example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mistakes in evidential reasoning can have severe consequences. Especially, errors in the use of statistics have led to serious miscarriages of justice. Fact-finders and forensic experts make errors in reasoning and fail to communicate effectively. As tools to prevent mistakes, three kinds of methods are available. Argumentative methods analyse the arguments and counterarguments that are presented in court. Narrative methods consider the construction and comparison of scenarios of what may have happened. Probabilistic methods show the connections between the probability of hypothetical events and the evidence. Each of the kinds of methods has provided useful normative maxims for good evidential reasoning. Argumentative and narrative methods are especially helpful for the analysis of qualitative information, but do not come with a formal theory that is as well-established as probability theory. In probabilistic methods, the emphasis is on numeric information, so much so that a standard criticism is that these methods require more numbers than are available. This article offers an integrating perspective on evidential reasoning, combining the strengths of each of the kinds of methods: the adversarial setting of arguments pro and con, the globally coherent perspective provided by scenarios, and the gradual uncertainty of probabilities. In the integrating perspective, arguments and scenarios are interpreted in the quantitative setting of standard probability theory. In this way, the integrated perspective provides a normative framework that bridges the communicative gap between fact-finders and forensic experts. Both qualitative and quantitative information can be used safely, focusing on what is relevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present research was carried out on the Agroindustrial Rice Complex "Los Palacios", on Pinar del Rio province. The investigation had as main goal the study of the means stop probabilities, on the base of stochastic process, considering economical features that appear during the work of the complex rice harvest-transport with the harvester machine New Holland TC-57 and the joint tractor New Holland TS-6020 with trailers RA-6, looking for its rational organization. For the solution of this problem was used the Queueing Theory, taking the economical criteria of itsoptimization the minimum added expenses in one hour by harvester machines and means of transport stops in service, besides it is determined the quantity means of transport for a harvester brigade under probabilistic basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Increasingly, network meta-analysis (NMA) of published survival data are based on parametric survival curves as opposed to reported hazard ratios to avoid relying on the proportional hazards assumption. If a Bayesian framework is used for the NMA, rank probabilities associated with the alternative treatments can be obtained, which directly support decision-making. In the context of survival analysis multiple treatment effect measures are available to inform the rank probabilities. Methods A fractional polynomial NMA of overall survival in advanced melanoma was performed as an illustrative example. Rank probabilities were calculated and presented for the following effect measures: 1) median survival; 2) expected survival; 3) mean survival at the follow-up time point of the trial with the shortest follow-up; 4) hazard or hazard ratio over time; 5) cumulative hazard or survival proportions over time; and 6) mean survival at subsequent time points. The advantages and disadvantages of the alternative measures were discussed. Results Since hazard and survival estimates may vary over time for the compared interventions, calculations of rank probabilities for an NMA of survival curves may depend on the effect measure. With methods 1-3 rank probabilities do not vary over time, which are easier to understand and communicate than rank probabilities that vary over time as obtained with methods 4-6. However, rank probabilities based on methods 4-6 provide useful information regarding the relative treatment effects over time. Conclusions Different approaches to summarize results of a NMA of survival curves with rank probabilities have pros and cons. Rank probabilities of treatment effects over time provide a more transparent and informative approach to help guide decision-making than single rank probabilities based on collapsed measures, such as median survival or expected survival. Rank probabilities based on survival proportions are the most intuitive and straightforward to communicate, but alternatives based on the hazard function or mean survival over time may also be useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to all-luck egalitarianism, the differential distributive effects of both brute luck, which defines the outcome of risks which are not deliberately taken, and option luck, which defines the outcome of deliberate gambles, are unjust. Exactly how to correct the effects of option luck is, however, a complex issue. This article argues that (a) option luck should be neutralized not just by correcting luck among gamblers, but among the community as a whole, because it would be unfair for gamblers as a group to be disadvantaged relative to non-gamblers by bad option luck; (b) individuals should receive the warranted expected results of their gambles, except insofar as individuals blamelessly lacked the ability to ascertain which expectations were warranted; and (c) where societal resources are insufficient to deliver expected results to gamblers, gamblers should receive a lesser distributive share which is in proportion to the expected results. Where all-luck egalitarianism is understood in this way, it allows risk-takers to impose externalities on non-risk-takers, which seems counterintuitive. This may, however, be an advantage as it provides a luck egalitarian rationale for assisting 'negligent victims'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different risks are associated with the operation and maintenance of wind farms in cold climate regions, mainly due to the harsh weather conditions that wind farms experience in that region such as the (i) increased stoppage rate of wind turbines due to harsh weather conditions, (ii) limited accessibility to wind farms due to snow cover on roads, and (iii) cold stress to workers at wind farms. In addition, there are risks that are caused by wind farms during their operation, which impact the surrounding environment and community such as the (iv) risk of ice throw from wind turbines, (v) environmental risks caused by the wind farms, and (vi) social opposition risk to installing wind farms in cold climate regions, such as the Arctic. The analysis of these six risks provides an overall view of the potential risks encountered by designers, operators, and decision makers at wind farms. This paper presents a methodology to quantify the aforementioned risks using fuzzy logic method. At first, two criteria were established for the probability and the consequences of each risk; with the use of experts' judgments, membership functions were graphed to reflect the two established criteria, which represented the input to the risk analysis process. Furthermore, membership functions were created for the risk levels, which represented the output. To test the proposed methodology, a wind farm in Arctic Norway was selected as a case study to quantify its risks. Experts provided their assessments of the probability and consequences of each risk on a scale from 0–10, depending on the description of the wind farm provided to them. Risk levels were calculated using MATLAB fuzzy logic toolbox and ranked accordingly. Limited accessibility to the wind farm was ranked as the highest risk, while the social opposition to the wind farm was ranked as the lowest. In addition, to demonstrate the effects of the Arctic operating conditions on performance and safety of the wind farm, the same methodology was applied to a wind farm located in a non-cold-climate region, which showed that the risks ranked differently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Designers of significant works of infrastructure should consider the complexities of climate change and anticipate the potential impacts over the projected lifetime of the infrastructure. This paper addresses how engineers can comprehensively address climate change in design in a balanced manner. It provides a framework for adaptation in engineering design and includes a specific approach towards a balanced whole-of-life assessment of risk, as opposed to a do-nothing approach, or conservatively designing for worst-case scenario impacts that may not be realised for many decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper reflects the empirical findings of an ethnobotanical survey which was undertaken in Patriata (New Murree) of district Rawalpindi in Pakistan. The aims and objectives of the study were to document indigenous knowledge of plants particularly of medicinal, veterinary, fruit, vegetable, fodder, fuel etc. Methods: For this purpose, the whole area was surveyed for documenting folk knowledge using a semi-structured questionnaire. A total of 93 plants species belonging to 80 genera and 56 families were found in a variety of uses by the local people for the accomplishment of their basic needs. The study further employs binary logit regression model of medicinal uses of these plants so as to identify the probability of occurrence of medicinal use of woody or non-woody plants keeping other plant characteristics in view. Results: Ethnobotanical data shows that most plants are used for medicinal and fodder purposes (27.93% each), followed by fuel (16.90%), fruit (6.55%), vegetable (5.52%) and ethno-veterinary (3.79%). There is also an established association of medicinal use of plants to the fruits use. Non-woody plants have high tendency towards medicinal use of the plants as compared to woody plants. Annual plants are less likely to be directly associated with medicinal use of plants in the surveyed vegetation. Underground plant parts are more likely to be used for medicinal purposes as revealed from the Logit expressions. Conclusions: The study revealed that most of the plants are used for medicinal and fodder purposes. The results of Logit Model showed that the probabilities of plant species for their medicinal use are associated to the woody or non-woody, aerial or underground, perennial or annual characteristics of plants. One should be careful in completely generalizing the results as the survey findings are sensitive to the plant species and the vegetation under consideration. But it can be specified that there exists either some positive or negative association of medicinal use of plants to the various characteristics of plant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a novel longwave polarimetric-based approach to man-made object detection that departs from a more traditional direct use of Stokes parameters. The approach exploits the spatial statistics on two coregistered vertical and horizontal polarization components of the images, where differences of spatial second-order statistics in the bivariate space reveal that man-made objects are separable from natural objects while holding invariant to diurnal cycle variation and geometry of illumination. We exploit the invariant feature using the Bayes decision rule based only on probabilities. Experimental results on a challenging data set, covering a 24-h diurnal cycle, show the effectiveness of the new approach on detecting anomalies; three military tank surrogates posed at different aspect angles are detectable in a natural clutter background. These results yield a negligible false alarm rate as the heating components of the tank surrogates were turned off during data collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I look at four different aspects of metaphor research from a corpus linguistic perspective, namely: (1) the lexicogrammar of metaphors, which refers to the patterning of linguistic metaphor revealed by corpus analysis; (2) metaphor probabilities, which is a facet of metaphor that emerges from frequency-based studies of metaphor; (3) dimensions of metaphor variation, or the search for systematic parameters of variation in metaphor use across different registers; and (4) automated metaphor retrieval, which relates to the development of software to help identify metaphors in corpora. I argue that these four aspects are interrelated, and that advances in one of them can drive changes in the others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty is highly relevant in environmental policy because on the one hand environmental problems are regarded as complex and require a long-term perspective and on the other hand the knowledge available to practitioners and policy makers alike is often fragmentary and not systemised. One key issue arising from this is the challenge to develop scientific decision support methods that are capable of dealing with uncertainty in a systematic and differentiated way, integrating scientific as well as practical knowledge. This paper introduces a conceptual framework for perceiving and describing uncertainty in environmental decision-making. The conceptual framework consists of a general definition of uncertainty along with five complementary perspectives on the phenomenon, each highlighting one specific aspect of it. By using the conceptual framework, decision-makers are able to reflect on their knowledge base with regard to its completeness and reliability and to gain a broad picture of uncertainty from various standpoints. The theoretical ideas presented here are complemented by two empirical studies looking at how uncertainty is dealt with in the implementation process of the EU Water Framework Directive. The rather abstract differentiations are illustrated by a number of examples in the form of interview statements and excerpts from the directive and official EU documents. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Background: Inferential statistical tests that approximate measurement are called acceptance procedures. The procedure includes type 1 error, falsely rejecting the null hypothesis, and type 2 error, failing to reject the null hypothesis when the alternative should be supported. This approach involves repeated sampling from a distribution with established parameters such that the probabilities of these errors can be ascertained. With low error probabilities the procedure has the potential to approximate measurement. How close this procedure approximates measurement was examined. Findings: A Monte Carlo procedure set the type 1 error at p = 0.05 and the type 2 error at either p = 0.20 or p = 0.10 for effect size values of d = 0.2, 0.5, and 0.8. The resultant values are approximately 15 and 6.25 % larger than the effect sizes entered into the analysis depending on a type 2 error rate of p < 0.20, or p < 0.10 respectively. Conclusions: Acceptance procedures approximate values wherein a decision could be made. In a health district a deviation at a particular level could signal a change in health. The approximations could be reasonable in some circumstances, but if more accurate measures are desired a deviation could be reduced by the percentage appropriate for the power. The tradeoff for such a procedure is an increase in type 1 error rate and a decrease in type 2 errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The influence of climate on plants geography is studied through a probabilistic calibration between a botanical database, containing 12 000 plots, and a meteorological database composed of 574 climatic stations. The calibration measures the climatical optimum (position) and the indicator power (concentration) of 1874 plants for six climatic variables. The validation of these relations is based upon the comparison of the estimation of climate by plants and the values measured by climatic stations near the plots. This validation underlines that plants are accurate (accuracy=88.5%) and stable (stability=96.5%) bio-indicators of climate variables. To cite this article: E. Garbolino et al., C. R. Biologies 330 (2007). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Outsourcing of maintenance activities from the core distribution operator business prompted the reorganization of the operations sequence of activities and affects, to some extent, the reliability of the distribution network. Repair times, a major component in the reliability calculations, arrive to a new understanding from operations point of view and the adequacy of established probabilistic representations has to be assessed. This paper proposes a mechanism to identify the layout of the sequence of activities for distribution component repair, resulting from reorganization, and revises the adequate representation of the times associated with various stages of the derived repair process. Statistical-based techniques employing estimates of distribution parameters and hypothesis testing serve to determine probabilistic distributions. The validity of the independence assumption for the random variables associated with individual times which compose the repair time is checked via statistical methods in order to confirm applicability of probabilistic-based calculations. By means of such a mechanism, an objective analysis of the time components of the repair time can be conducted, such as areas of improvement, and can be outlined. The results obtained for a large real power distribution system are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Spohnian paradigm of ranking functions is in many respects like an order-of-magnitude reverse of subjective probability theory. Unlike probabilities, however, ranking functions are only indirectly—via a pointwise ranking function on the underlying set of possibilities W—defined on a field of propositions over W. This research note shows under which conditions ranking functions on a field of propositions over W and rankings on a language are induced by pointwise ranking functions on W and the set of models for , , respectively. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In his paper, “Should the Numbers Count?" John Taurek imagines that we are in a position such that we can either save a group of five people, or we can save one individual, David. We cannot save David and the five. This is because they each require a life-saving drug. However, David needs all of the drug if he is to survive, while the other five need only a fifth each. Typically, people have argued as if there was a choice to be made: either numbers matter, in which case we should save the greater number, or numbers don't matter, but rather there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, and therefore we should toss a coin. My claim is that we do not have to make a choice in this way. Rather, numbers do matter, but it doesn't follow that we should always save the greater number. And likewise, there is moral value in giving each person an equal chance of survival, but it doesn't follow that we should always toss a coin. In addition, I argue that a similar approach can be applied to situations in which we can save one person or another, but the chances of success are different. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We propose a formal language for the specification of trace properties of probabilistic, nondeterministic transition systems, encompassing the properties expressible in Linear Time Logic. Those formulas are in general undecidable on infinite deterministic transition systems and thus on infinite Markov decision processes. This language has both a semantics in terms of sets of traces, as well as another semantics in terms of measurable functions; we give and prove theorems linking the two semantics. We then apply abstract interpretation-based techniques to give upper bounds on the worst-case probability of the studied property. We propose an enhancement of this technique when the state space is partitioned — for instance along the program points — allowing the use of faster iteration methods. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Our department has redesigned its electrical and computer engineering programs by adopting a learning methodology based on competence development, problem solving, and the realization of design projects. In this article, we show how this pedagogical approach has been successfully used for learning probabilities and their application to computer systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work was to propose an algorithm (HAPROB) to estimate haplotype probabilities for genotyped members of half-sib families for which parents lacked genotypic information. The algorithm had 2 basic steps. First, a Monte Carlo-based approach was used to estimate haplotype probabilities for sires conditional upon offspring genotypes and population allelic frequencies, and then offspring-haplotype probabilities were estimated conditional upon sire probabilities and population frequencies. The 2 steps were alternated iteratively until estimates of population frequencies were essentially unchanged. Simulation was used to evaluate effects of the number of Monte Carlo cycles on the accuracy of the reconstructed haplotypes. Fifty thousand cycles was found to be sufficient for the haplotype configurations considered. Accuracy of the algorithm was compared with that obtained by the public domain SIMWALK2 software. Predictions of the most likely haplotype configurations are produced by SIMWALK2, but no estimates of probability are given. The accuracy of the current approach was comparable to that obtained from SIMWALK2. The proportions of times that haplotypes were reconstructed correctly were 87.0 and 92.4% (sires and offspring) for HAPROB vs. 87.5 and 91.5% for SIMWALK2. Effects of family size on accuracy of reconstruction were examined. Accuracy of reconstruction was only about 4% for sires with 2 offspring, but accuracy among the offspring themselves was 65%. Accuracy increased quickly as family size increased and reached 100% for sires with 30 offspring. Maximum accuracy for offspring was about 96%. Estimates of haplotype probabilities produced can be used in regression analyses to estimate effects of haplotypes on quantitative phenotypes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The probabilities of extinction, weak extinction, permanence, and mutual exclusion are calculated for models with up to five species by examining one million randomly chosen discrete, competitive, LotkarVolterra systems. The probability of permanence drops off very rapidly with the increase in the number of species. It drops to less than 1% with five species. The probability that at least one species will die out increases with the number of species. It reaches 95% with five species. When a group of species weakly dominates another species, the dominated species goes extinct. The probability that at least one species is weakly dominated is close to 50%. Mutual exclusion happens between 10% and 20% of the time when there are at least three species. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this study, we report the lowest energy structure of bare Cu13 nanoclusters as a pair of enantiomers at room temperature. Moreover, we compute the enantiomerization energy for the interconversion from minus to plus structures in the chiral putative global minimum for temperatures ranging from 20 to 1300 K. Additionally, employing nanothermodynamics, we compute the probabilities of occurrence for each particular isomer as a function of temperature. To achieve that, we explore the free energy surface of the Cu13 cluster, employing a genetic algorithm coupled with density functional theory. Moreover, we discuss the energetic ordering of isomers computed with various density functionals. Based on the computed thermal population, our results show that the chiral putative global minimum strongly dominates at room temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine theoretically the dynamic inflation and finite amplitude oscillatory motion of inhomogeneous spherical shells and cylindrical tubes of stochastic hyperelastic material. These bodies are deformed by radially symmetric uniform inflation, and are subjected to either a surface dead load or an impulse traction, uniformly applied in the radial direction. We consider composite shells and tubes with two concentric stochastic homogeneous neo-Hookean phases, and inhomogeneous bodies of stochastic neo-Hookean material with constitutive parameters varying continuously in the radial direction. For the homogeneous materials, we define the elastic parameters as spatially-independent random variables, while for the radially inhomogeneous bodies, we take the parameters as spatially-dependent random fields, described by non-Gaussian probability density functions. Under radially symmetric dynamic deformation treated as quasi-equilibrated motion, we show that the bodies oscillate, i.e., the radius increases up to a point, then decreases, then increases again, and so on, and the amplitude and period of the oscillations are characterised by probability distributions, depending on the initial conditions, the geometry, and the probabilistic material properties. • We study large strain deformations of stochastic isotropic hyperelastic bodies. • Radially inhomogeneous cylindrical tubes and spherical shells are considered. • Dynamic inflation and finite amplitude oscillatory motions are treated explicitly. • The material parameters are defined by non-Gaussian probability densities. • Our probabilistic results demonstrate the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Personalized medicine promises to represent a transformation in clinical care that will be ushered in by the unprecedented growth and development in the field of human genetics. Further examination of the scientific foundations of this new hope reveals a great number of challenges that lie ahead. While basic science research feverishly races to produce solutions, we continue to wait for the translation of deliverables. Products that have and will come to market may leave our clinical communities and systems exposed and unprepared. At each step, from basic science research to infrastructure development, a great deal of creativity and investment are required before the arsenal of more personalized tools can be assimilated into our current models of health care. This commentary seeks to share perspectives on the current status of personalized medicine from the vantage point of several potential investors, and integrate them into a common set of goals and understanding. We conclude that the stylized model of personalized medicine is more akin to a marketing tool than a literal prediction of the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]