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CO 2 emissions from global steel production may jeopardize climate goals of 1.5 °C unless current steel production practices will be rapidly decarbonized. At present, primary iron and steel production is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, primarily coke. This study aims to determine which decarbonization pathways can achieve the strongest emission reductions of the iron and steel industry in Germany by 2050. Moreover, we estimate whether the German iron and steel industry will be able to stay within its sectoral carbon budgets for a 1.5 °C or 1.75 °C target. We developed three decarbonization scenarios for German steel production: an electrification, coal-exit, and a carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario. They describe a phase-out of coal-fired production plants and an introduction of electricity-based, low-carbon iron production technologies, i.e. hydrogen-based direct reduction and electrowinning of iron ore. The scenarios consider the age and lifetimes of existing coal-based furnaces, the maturity of emerging technologies, and increasing recycling shares. Based on specific energy requirements and reaction-related emissions per technology, we calculated future CO 2 emissions of future steel production in Germany. We found that under the decarbonization scenarios, annual CO 2 emissions decrease by up to 83% in 2050 relative to 2020. The reductions of cumulative emissions by 2050 range from 24% (360 Mt CO 2) under the electrification scenario up to the maximum of 46% (677 Mt CO 2) under the CCS scenario compared to a reference scenario. This clearly demonstrates that the technology pathway matters. Nevertheless, the German steel sector will exceed its sectoral CO 2 budget for a 1.5 °C warming scenario between 2023 and 2037. Thus, drastic measures are required very soon to sufficiently limit future CO 2 emissions from German steel production, such as, a rapid decarbonization of the electricity mix, the construction of a hydrogen and CCS infrastructure, or early shutdowns of current coal-based furnaces. [Display omitted] • Scenarios for iron and steel production in Germany until 2050 • Adopting new technologies: hydrogen-based direct reduction and electrowinning • Comparison of CO 2 emissions with sectoral carbon budgets for the steel industry • Carbon budget for climate goal of 1.5 °C likely to be exceeded between 2023 and 2037 • Carbon capture scenario achieves lowest CO 2 emissions but has higher energy demand [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO 2 emissions from global steel production may jeopardize climate goals of 1.5 °C unless current steel production practices will be rapidly decarbonized. At present, primary iron and steel production is still heavily dependent on fossil fuels, primarily coke. This study aims to determine which decarbonization pathways can achieve the strongest emission reductions of the iron and steel industry in Germany by 2050. Moreover, we estimate whether the German iron and steel industry will be able to stay within its sectoral carbon budgets for a 1.5 °C or 1.75 °C target. We developed three decarbonization scenarios for German steel production: an electrification, coal-exit, and a carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario. They describe a phase-out of coal-fired production plants and an introduction of electricity-based, low-carbon iron production technologies, i.e. hydrogen-based direct reduction and electrowinning of iron ore. The scenarios consider the age and lifetimes of existing coal-based furnaces, the maturity of emerging technologies, and increasing recycling shares. Based on specific energy requirements and reaction-related emissions per technology, we calculated future CO 2 emissions of future steel production in Germany. We found that under the decarbonization scenarios, annual CO 2 emissions decrease by up to 83% in 2050 relative to 2020. The reductions of cumulative emissions by 2050 range from 24% (360 Mt CO 2) under the electrification scenario up to the maximum of 46% (677 Mt CO 2) under the CCS scenario compared to a reference scenario. This clearly demonstrates that the technology pathway matters. Nevertheless, the German steel sector will exceed its sectoral CO 2 budget for a 1.5 °C warming scenario between 2023 and 2037. Thus, drastic measures are required very soon to sufficiently limit future CO 2 emissions from German steel production, such as, a rapid decarbonization of the electricity mix, the construction of a hydrogen and CCS infrastructure, or early shutdowns of current coal-based furnaces. [Display omitted] • Scenarios for iron and steel production in Germany until 2050 • Adopting new technologies: hydrogen-based direct reduction and electrowinning • Comparison of CO 2 emissions with sectoral carbon budgets for the steel industry • Carbon budget for climate goal of 1.5 °C likely to be exceeded between 2023 and 2037 • Carbon capture scenario achieves lowest CO 2 emissions but has higher energy demand [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Hydrogen accounts for 5–10% of total energy in 2050 under 2 °C scenarios. • Hydrogen share increases for a 1.5 °C goal and reaches 15% if CCS is limited. • Transport is the largest consumer of hydrogen, followed by industry and power. • Synthetic hydrocarbons based on hydrogen and direct air capture are an option. • Holistic energy policy design is needed rather than heavy dependence on hydrogen. Hydrogen-based energy carriers, including hydrogen, ammonia and synthetic hydrocarbons, are expected to help reduce residual carbon dioxide emissions in the context of the Paris Agreement goals, although their potential has not yet been fully clarified in light of their competitiveness and complementarity with other mitigation options such as electricity, biofuels and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This study aimed to explore the role of hydrogen in the global energy system under various mitigation scenarios and technology portfolios using a detailed energy system model that considers various energy technologies including the conversion and use of hydrogen-based energy carriers. The results indicate that the share of hydrogen-based energy carriers generally remains less than 5% of global final energy demand by 2050 in the 2 °C scenarios. Nevertheless, such carriers contribute to removal of residual emissions from the industry and transport sectors under specific conditions. Their share increases to 10–15% under stringent mitigation scenarios corresponding to 1.5 °C warming and scenarios without CCS. The transport sector is the largest consumer, accounting for half or more of hydrogen production, followed by the industry and power sectors. In addition to direct usage of hydrogen and ammonia, synthetic hydrocarbons converted from hydrogen and carbon captured from biomass or direct air capture are attractive transport fuels, growing to half of all hydrogen-based energy carriers. Upscaling of electrification and biofuels is another common cost-effective strategy, revealing the importance of holistic policy design rather than heavy reliance on hydrogen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]