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Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity ("ERAS") stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori‐Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the "non‐Poisson" power‐law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de‐clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity. Plain Language Summary: Earthquake nowcasting was proposed as a means of tracking the change in the potential for large earthquakes in a seismically active area, using the record of small earthquakes. The method was developed using observed seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using machine learning methods that were originally developed with the advent of radar in the 1940s. These methods are now being used in the development of machine learning and artificial intelligence models in a variety of applications. In recent times, methods to simulate earthquakes using the observed statistical laws of earthquake seismicity have been developed. One of the advantages of these stochastic models is that it can be used to analyze the various assumptions that are inherent in the analysis of seismic catalogs of earthquakes. In this paper, we analyze the importance of the space‐time clustering that is often observed in earthquake seismicity. We find that the clustering is the origin of information that makes the earthquake nowcasting methods possible. We also find that a common practice of "aftershock de‐clustering", often used in the analysis of these catalogs, removes information about future large earthquakes. Key Points: Earthquake nowcasting tracks the change in the potential for large earthquakes, using information contained in seismic catalogsWe analyze the information contained in the space‐time clustering that is observed in earthquake seismicityWe find that "aftershock de‐clustering" of catalogs removes information about future large earthquakes that the nowcasting method uses [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: Patients are being encouraged to complete forms electronically using patient portals rather than on paper, but willingness of older adults to make this transition is uncertain. METHODS: The authors analyzed data for 4105 Kaiser Permanente Northern California 2020 Member Health Survey respondents aged 65-85 years who answered a question about willingness to complete online forms and questionnaires using a patient portal. Data weighted to the Kaiser Permanente Northern California membership were used to estimate percentages of older adults willing to complete patient portal forms and questionnaires. Chi-square tests and log-Poisson regression models that included sociodemographic, internet use, and patient portal variables were used to identify factors predictive of willingness. RESULTS: Overall, 59.6% of older adults were willing to complete patient portal forms, 17.6% were not willing, and 22.8% were not sure. Adults aged 75-85 (49.5%) vs 65-74 years (64.8%) and Black (51.9%) and Latino (46.5%) vs White (62.8%) adults were less likely to indicate willingness. In addition to racial and ethnic differences and younger age, higher educational attainment, use of the internet alone (vs internet use with help or not at all), having an internet-enabled computer or tablet, and having sent at least 1 message through the patient portal increased likelihood of being willing. CONCLUSIONS: Health care teams should assess older adults' capabilities and comfort related to completion of patient portal-based forms and support those willing to make the digital transition. Paper forms and oral collection of information should remain available for those unable or unwilling to make this digital transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Following the removal of lead from gasoline, paint and pipes were thought to be the main sources of lead exposure in the United States. However, consumer products, such as certain spices, ceramic and metal cookware, traditional health remedies, and cultural powders, are increasingly recognized as important sources of lead exposure across the United States. OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews data from four US jurisdictions that conduct in-home investigations for children with elevated blood lead levels (BLLs) to examine the prevalence of lead exposures associated with consumer products, in comparison with housing-related sources. METHODS: Authors reviewed investigation data (2010–2021) provided by California, Oregon, New York City, and King County, Washington, and compared the extent of lead exposures associated with housing-related vs. consumer products–related sources. DISCUSSION: The proportion of investigations identifying consumer products–related sources of lead exposure varied by jurisdiction (range: 15%– 38%). A review of US CDC and US FDA alerts and New York City data indicates that these types of lead-containing products are often sourced internationally, with many hand carried into the United States during travel. Based on surveillance data, we believe that US immigrant and refugee communities are at an increased risk for lead exposures associated with these products. To engage health authorities, there is a need for evidentiary data. We recommend implementing a national product surveillance database systematically tracking data on consumer products tested by childhood lead poisoning prevention programs. The data repository should be centralized and accessible to all global stakeholders, including researchers and governmental and nongovernmental agencies, who can use these data to inform investigations. Effectively identifying and addressing the availability of lead-containing consumer products at their source can focus resources on primary prevention, reducing lead exposures for users abroad and in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the performance of a multirotor uncrewed aircraft and AirCore system (UAAS) for measuring vertical profiles of wind velocity (speed and direction) and the mole fractions of methane (CH 4) and carbon dioxide (CO 2) , and it presents a use case that combines UAAS measurements and dispersion modeling to quantify CH 4 emissions from a dairy farm. To evaluate the atmospheric sensing performance of the UAAS, four field deployments were performed at three locations in the San Joaquin Valley of California where CH 4 hotspots were observed downwind of dairy farms. A comparison of the observations collected on board the UAAS and an 11 m meteorological tower show that the UAAS can measure wind velocity trends with a root mean squared error varying between 0.4 and 1.1 m s -1 when the wind magnitude is less than 3.5 m s -1. Findings from UAAS flight deployments and a calibration experiment also show that the UAAS can reliably resolve temporal variations in the mole fractions of CH 4 and CO 2 occurring over periods of 10 s or longer. Results from the UAAS and dispersion modeling use case further demonstrate that UAASs have great potential as low-cost tools for detecting and quantifying CH 4 emissions in near real time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For evaluating the resistance performance of cement-stabilized soils in cold regions, the variation of the strength of the cemented sand–gravel (CSG) mixture concerning the hydration process should be explored. This paper aims to study the effect of freeze–thaw (F–T) cycles on the strength and microstructure of a CSG mixture with 10% cement that is subjected to 12 cycles of freezing at a temperature of −23°C for 24 h and then melted at room temperature of 24°C for the next 24 h. The uniaxial compressive strength (UCS), California bearing ratio (CBR), and weight volume loss of the samples were measured after individual F–T cycles. Furthermore, the change in the microstructure of the CSG mixture in various F–T cycles was explored. The results showed a considerable reduction in the UCS up to Cycle 3, then a slight increase for Cycles 3–6, and finally a gradual decrease for further cycles. However, the CBR and weight loss slightly fluctuated up to Cycle 6, and then gradually decreased for subsequent cycles. The majority of compounds of hydrated cement were damaged in the first three cycles. In the following cycles, between Cycles 3 and 6, the portlandite compound was dissolved and recrystallized within the microvoids. Depending on the environmental conditions, carbonation may be generated from the hydrated cement fraction, which fills the microvoids and improves the strength and structure of the mixture. During further cycles after the sixth cycle, the mechanical action of the ice lenses coupled with the disintegration of the hydrate compounds imposed many new microvoids and cracks with considerable length and width, which intensified the strength reduction of the moisture and weakened the adhesion between grains. Since cement is widely used in pavement and dam engineering for stabilizing soils, the durability of cemented soils is of prime concern. This study may help improve the durability and resistance of cemented soils in cold climates. The F–T action not only influences the macrostructure of cement-stabilized soils by imposing a wide crack and ice lens but also induces a considerable change in the complexes existing in the hydrated cement paste of the mixture. Three patterns govern the change of the mixture microstructure in various F–T cycles that correspond to the observed trend in strength. The mentioned trend for the microstructure change and, consequently, the strength variation of the CSG mixture are associated with many factors such as pH, cement content, CO2 content, moisture content within the mixture, and relative humidity within the environment. Accordingly, the pattern of microstructural changes in the CSG mixture after the middle F–T cycles may vary depending on environmental conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision‐making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two‐stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways. Location: Central Valley, California, USA. Methods: We used a two‐stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N‐mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species‐ and habitat‐specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance. Results: We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased. Main Conclusions: Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat‐buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human‐induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This paper describes the protocols for a randomized controlled trial using a parallel-group trial design that includes an intervention designed to address social isolation and loneliness among people experiencing homelessness known as Miracle Friends and an intervention that combines Miracles Friends with an economic poverty-reduction intervention known as Miracle Money. Miracle Friends pairs an unhoused person with a volunteer "phone buddy." Miracle Money provides guaranteed basic income of $750 per month for 1 year to Miracle Friends participants. The study will examine whether either intervention reduces social isolation or homelessness compared to a waitlist control group. Methods: Unhoused individuals who expressed interest in the Miracle Friends program were randomized to either receive the intervention or be placed on a waitlist for Miracle Friends. Among those randomized to receive the Miracle Friends intervention, randomization also determined whether they would be offered Miracle Money. The possibility of receiving basic income was only disclosed to study participants if they were randomly selected and participated in the Miracle Friends program. All study participants, regardless of assignment, were surveyed every 3 months for 15 months. Results: Of 760 unhoused individuals enrolled in the study, 256 were randomized to receive Miracle Friends, 267 were randomized to receive Miracle Money, and 237 were randomized to the waitlist control group. In the two intervention groups, 360 of 523 unhoused individuals were initially matched to a phone buddy. Of the 191 study participants in the Miracle Money group who had been initially matched to a volunteer phone buddy, 103 were deemed to be participating in the program and began receiving monthly income. Discussion: This randomized controlled trial will determine whether innovative interventions involving volunteer phone support and basic income reduce social isolation and improve housing outcomes for people experiencing homelessness. Although we enrolled unhoused individuals who initially expressed interest in the Miracle Friends program, the study team could not reach approximately 30% of individuals referred to the study. This may reflect the general lack of stability in the lives of people who are unhoused or limitations in the appeal of such a program to some portion of the unhoused population. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05408884 (first submitted on May 26, 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in both the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, coupled with recent advancements in artificial intelligence, has introduced prospects for investigating the potential of new technologies to facilitate disaster response processes. Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA), a labor-intensive procedure necessitating manual examination of residential structures to ascertain post-disaster damage severity, stands to significantly benefit from the integration of computer vision-based classification algorithms, promising efficiency gains and heightened accuracy. Our paper proposes a Vision Transformer (ViT)-based model for classifying damage severity, achieving an accuracy rate of 95%. Notably, our model, trained on a repository of over 18,000 ground-level images of homes with damage severity annotated by damage assessment professionals during the 2020–2022 California wildfires, represents a novel application of ViT technology within this domain. Furthermore, we have open sourced this dataset—the first of its kind and scale—to be used by the research community. Additionally, we have developed a publicly accessible web application prototype built on this classification algorithm, which we have demonstrated to disaster management practitioners and received feedback on. Hence, our contribution to the literature encompasses the provision of a novel imagery dataset, an applied framework from field professionals, and a damage severity classification model with high accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Morro manzanita Arctostaphyos morroensis (Ericaceae) is a long-lived, shrub endemic to San Luis Obispo County, southern California, USA. It was listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1994, with identified threats being residential and urban development, including lack of protection on private land and lack of management on public lands, competition with invasive non-native plants, and risks of extinction associated with small and isolated populations. Our goal in this paper is to summarize and supplement the current knowledge of Morro manzanita. We review the literature on the species' description, reproductive ecology, germination cues, short-term response to fire. and distribution. We conducted field surveys to report on long-term response to fire, resampling the previously studied prescribed burn site 25 yr post-fire. Finally, we summarize the current land management of sites that support Morro manzanita and threats faced by this species. We conclude with specific recommendations for management and future study towards supporting conservation of this species and its maritime chaparral community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the California's Supreme Court case Save the Plastic Bag Coalition v. City of Manhattan Beach, wherein it was held that the City of Manhattan Beach acted within its discretion in order to approve the plastic bag ban on the basis of a Negative Declaration (ND), rather than a full Environmental Impact Report (EIR). The court sided with the plaintiff, Save the Plastic Bag Coalition, on the issue of corporate standing under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA).

Among its many collections documenting the history of the Far West, the Huntington Library holds the papers of various western historians. Although such collections present certain inherent challenges, they also can offer significant contributions to the study of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the personal papers of the late Derek Freeman, scholar and specialist in Borneo studies, which have been deposited at the Mandeville Special Collections Library at the University of California, San Diego. Acquisition of the collection; Completion of the collection in 2002; Correspondence; Field notes and documents concerned chiefly with Samoa and the so-called Mead-Freeman controversy.

Background: Barriers exist for the provision of surgery for permanent contraception in the postpartum period. Prenatal counseling has been associated with increased rates of fulfillment of desired postpartum contraception in general, although it is unclear if there is impact on permanent contraception specifically. Thus, we aimed to investigate the association between initial timing for prenatal documentation of a contraceptive plan for permanent contraception and fulfillment of postpartum contraception for those receiving counseling. Methods: This is a planned secondary analysis of a multi-site cohort study of patients with documented desire for permanent contraception at the time of delivery at four hospitals located in Alabama, California, Illinois, and Ohio over a two-year study period. Our primary exposure was initial timing of documented plan for contraception (first, second, or third trimester, or during delivery hospitalization). We used univariate and multivariable logistic regression to analyze fulfillment of permanent contraception before hospital discharge, within 42 days of delivery, and within 365 days of delivery between patients with a documented plan for permanent contraception in the first or second trimester compared to the third trimester. Covariates included insurance status, age, parity, gestational age, mode of delivery, adequacy of prenatal care, race, ethnicity, marital status, and body mass index. Results: Of the 3103 patients with a documented expressed desire for permanent contraception at the time of delivery, 2083 (69.1%) had a documented plan for postpartum permanent contraception prenatally. After adjusting for covariates, patients with initial documented plan for permanent contraception in the first or second trimester had a higher odds of fulfillment by discharge (aOR 1.57, 95% C.I 1.24–2.00), 42 days (aOR 1.51, 95% C.I 1.20–1.91), and 365 days (aOR 1.40, 95% C.I 1.11–1.75), compared to patients who had their first documented plan in the third trimester. Conclusions: Patients who had a documented prenatal plan for permanent contraception in trimester one and two experienced higher likelihood of permanent contraception fulfillment compared to those with documentation in trimester three. Given the barriers to accessing permanent contraception, it is imperative that comprehensive, patient-centered counseling and documentation regarding future reproductive goals begin early prenatally. Plain language summary: Permanent contraception is a highly desired form of postpartum contraception in the United States, however there are several barriers to accessing it. In this paper, we investigate whether the timing of when a patient has a documented plan for postpartum contraception has an impact on if they achieve postpartum contraception. This is a cohort study from four hospitals in Illinois, Ohio, California, and Alabama for patients with a desire for postpartum permanent contraception documented in their medical record. We specifically investigated the trimester (first, second, or third) where a patient had a plan for permanent contraception first documented. We then used univariate and multivariate models to determine the relationship between the timing of a plan for permanent contraception and if a patient achieved the procedure at three time-points: hospital discharge, 42-days, and 365-days. Our findings showed that of the 3103 patients in our cohort, only 69.1% of them had a documented plan for postpartum contraception at any point before going to the hospital for their delivery admission. We additionally found that patients who had a documented plan for permanent contraception in the first or second trimester had a higher odds of receiving their postpartum contraception procedure compared to people who had their first documented plan in the third trimester. This showed us the importance of earlier counseling regarding contraception for pregnant patients. There are many barriers to accessing postpartum contraception, so having patient focused counseling about future goals around reproductive health early on in pregnancy is critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stream-terrace morphostratigraphy and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) geochronology indicate that storm-driven sedimentation has caused down-system decoupling of the uppermost reaches of McMillan Creek (southern California, USA) from the lower reaches of McMillan Creek since 1960 ± 190 yr B.P. This is significant because source-to-sink studies report high degrees of sediment transport connectivity over millennial time scales during periods of high fluvial discharge in sediment routing systems. The most recent relatively large-magnitude episode of sedimentation emplaced a sediment slug in the ephemeral channel of McMillan Creek. The sediment slug is correlated to the "California Storm of January 1862" via OSL dating. In this paper, a conceptual model of sediment slug dynamics in an ephemeral stream over 16 decades is developed based on fluvial sedimentation events that in most instances included reworking slug-derived sediment. Due to the episodic nature of streamflow in ephemeral streams and the dearth of sediment transport between streamflow events, sediment slug coherency is sustained over longer periods of time in ephemeral streams than in perennial streams having steady or variable flow regimes. The longevity of sediment-slug coherency in ephemeral streams leads to more prolonged down-system decoupling in sediment routing systems than down-system decoupling caused by ordinary fluvial sedimentation. In McMillan Creek, it is possible that up-system decoupling driven by sedimentation has been contemporaneous with down-system decoupling, but factors other than sedimentation may have a more significant role in up-system decoupling. Source-to-sink studies completed in areas having a Mediterranean climate cannot assume that sediment flux out of upland source areas includes the total amount of sediment available for transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis ) is under consideration for federal protection and has stimulated ecosystem-level management efforts in Sierra Nevada national forests. Because some populations are declining, we used a noninvasive fecal sampling method to estimate stress hormone (i.e., corticosterone) levels within a local population from April to August 2001. Fecal corticosterone levels were similar to those recorded in a previous study of Northern Spotted Owls (S.o. caurina ) ( &xmacr;= 80.1 ng/g dry feces, SE = 75.8). We then used an information-theoretic approach to identify factors that influence fecal corticosterone levels in Spotted Owls. Our best overall model indicated that nonbreeding owls had higher fecal corticosterone levels than breeding owls early in the breeding season and lower levels later in the breeding season. We collected few samples from breeding owls early in the breeding season, however, which may have influenced the results. Management-related factors reflecting habitat condition and proximity to roads were not correlated with fecal corticosterone. However, factors such as field storage method and sample mass were correlated with the amount of measured fecal corticosterone and should be considered in future studies. Sample vials initially stored on ice had higher levels than those stored immediately in liquid N2 (βstorage= 0.269 ln[ng/g], 95% CI = 0.026, 0.512). Hormone metabolites were extracted from extremely small samples (0.01 g) by slightly modifying the assay protocol, but the amount of corticosterone detected increased as the sample mass decreased (βmass=−6.248 ln[ng/g], 95% CI =−8.877, −3.620). Corticosterone levels were significantly higher in 10 cecal samples collected simultaneously with fecal samples (paired difference = 74.7 ng/g, SE = 45.0, p = 0.001 for a paired t test), so care must be taken to avoid contaminating fecal samples with cecal material. Most of the variation was unexplained by our best model ( R 2= 0.24), and additional factors influencing fecal corticosterone levels need to be identified. Therefore, we recommend that well-designed experiments be conducted under controlled conditions to better determine the effect of factors such as sample handling, partial sampling, and diet on fecal corticosterone levels in owls and other birds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Red beds (RBs) are widely distributed in all continents of the world. With the rapid development of road and railway construction, the construction of roads and railways in RB areas is increasing. However, when RB is the filler, it will expose three aspects of serious deficiencies in compaction, mechanical bearing capacity, and water stability, which will cause fatal harm to the subgrade. Therefore, RB has to be abandoned and cannot be used as a subgrade filler. In this paper, different microwave irradiation temperatures (DMITs) from room temperature of 25°C to 700°C were used to reveal the enhancing mechanism of RB in three aspects based on the analysis results of microscopic composition and structure. The microscopic composition and structure show that RB can be divided into a low-temperature section (25°C–400°C) and a high-temperature section (500°C–700°C) under the microwave condition. The low-temperature section has some improvement in the engineering performance of RB, but the influence is limited. The engineering performance of RB is improved completely in the high-temperature section. Specifically, the coarse size of RB increases with the rise in microwave temperature, which is beneficial for improving fine size. The compaction property of RB is not largely affected by the water content and can still meet the most stringent subgrade filler requirements, even under saturated conditions or 0. The California bearing ratio (CBR) value can maintain more than 20% under the ultimate working condition, far higher than the code requirements. The increase of internal friction angle and cohesion can enhance the stability of the cut slope, which is conducive to construction in remote mountainous areas. The water resistance of RB is positively correlated with the microwave irradiation temperature, especially at 700°C; RB experiences secondary hardening after encountering water, the mechanical strength increases, and the softening coefficient reaches 107.44%. The research shows that after microwave high-temperature stabilization, the engineering characteristics of the RB are thoroughly strengthened, and it becomes a high-quality subgrade filler to eliminate the three diseases of RB subgrade completely. Compared with the traditional method of adding stabilizers, microwave in situ RB stabilization reduces the site construction's complexity, saves a lot of stabilizer use and transportation costs, and can effectively reduce carbon emissions. This study provides a positive perspective on the in situ application of the RB soft rock subgrade. It could be a starting point for understanding the microwave-based stabilization of soft rock soils subgrade filler in situ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on the discovery of papers on Soviet socialism written by Leon Trotsky and his son, Lev Sedov, in the Boris I. Nicolaevsky Collection in the Archives of the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University in California. Contribution of Leon Trotsky to the study of Russian history; Other repositories in which Trotsky papers can be found; Content of and period covered by the Hoover Institution papers.

In the US, SGH2 Energy Global is partnering with the City of Lancaster in southern California to build a large-scale 'green' hydrogen facility, using the company's Solena Plasma Enhanced Gasification (SPEG) technology to produce 11 000 kg/day of hydrogen from recycled mixed paper waste. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely evaluation and reperfusion have improved the myocardial salvage and the subsequent recovery rate of the patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction (MI). Long waiting time and time-consuming procedures of in-hospital diagnostic testing severely affect the timeliness. We present a Poincare pattern ensemble-based method with the consideration of multi-correlated non-stationary stochastic system dynamics to localize the infarct-related artery (IRA) in acute MI by fully harnessing information from paper-based Electrocardiogram (ECG). The vectorcardiogram (VCG) diagnostic features extracted from only 2.5-s long paper ECG recordings were used to hierarchically localize the IRA—not mere localization of the infarcted cardiac tissues—in acute MI. Paper ECG records and angiograms of 106 acute MI patients collected at the Heart Artery and Vein Center at Fresno California and the 12-lead ECG signals from the Physionet PTB online database were employed to validate the proposed approach. We reported the overall accuracies of 97.41% for healthy control (HC) vs. MI, 89.41 ± 9.89 for left and right culprit arteries vs. others, 88.2 ± 11.6 for left main arteries vs. right-coronary-ascending (RCA) and 93.67 ± 4.89 for left-anterior-descending (LAD) vs. left-circumflex (LCX). The IRA localization from paper ECG can be used to timely triage the patients with acute coronary syndromes to the percutaneous coronary intervention facilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vaccine mandates can take many forms, and different kinds of mandates can implicate an array of values in diverse ways. It follows that good ethics arguments about particular vaccine mandates will attend to the details of individual policies. Furthermore, attention to particular mandate policies—and to attributes of the communities they aim to govern—can also illuminate which ethics arguments may be more salient in particular contexts. If ethicists want their arguments to make a difference in policy, they should attend to these kinds of empirical considerations. This paper focuses on the most common and contentious vaccine mandate reform in the contemporary United States: the elimination of nonmedical exemptions (NMEs) to school and daycare vaccine mandates. It highlights, in particular, debates about California's Senate Bill 277 (SB277), which was the first successful recent effort to eliminate NMEs in that country. We use media, secondary sources, and original interviews with policymakers and activists to identify and evaluate three ethics arguments offered by critics of SB277: parental freedom, informed consent, and children's rights to care and education. We then turn to one ethics argument often offered by advocates of SB277: harm prevention. We note, however, that three arguments for mandates that are common in the immunization ethics literature—fairness/free‐riding, children's rights to vaccination, and utilitarianism—did not play a role in debates about SB277. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise: A comparison of methods using different materials to exclude light from stems to prevent stem CO2 exchange (i.e., photosynthesis), without affecting stem conductance to water vapor, surface temperature, and relative humidity, was conducted on stems of avocado trees in California. Methods and Results: The experiment featured three materials: aluminum foil, paper‐based wrap, and mineral‐based paint. We examined stem CO2 exchange with and without the light exclusion treatments. We also examined stem surface temperature, relative humidity, and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) under the cover materials. All materials reduced PAR and stem CO2 exchange. However, aluminum foil reduced stem surface temperature and increased relative humidity. Conclusions: Methods used to study stem CO2 exchange through light exclusion have historically relied on methods that may induce experimental artifacts. Among the methods tested here, mineral‐based paint effectively reduced PAR without affecting stem surface temperature and relative humidity around the stem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand for food and water are increasing while the extent of arable land and accessible fresh water are decreasing. This poses global challenges as economies continue to develop and the population grows. With agriculture as the leading consumer of water, better understanding how water is used to produce food may help support the increase of Crop Water Productivity (CWP; kg/m3), the ratio of crop output per unit of water input (or crop per drop). Previous large-scale CWP studies have been useful for broad water use modeling at coarser resolutions. However, obtaining more precise CWP, especially for specific crop types in a particular area and growing season as outlined here are important for informing farm-scale water management decision making. Therefore, this study focused on California's Central Valley utilizing high-spatial resolution satellite imagery of 30 m (0.09 hectares per pixel) to generate more precise CWP for commonly grown and water-intensive irrigated crops. First, two products were modeled and mapped. 1. Landsat based Actual Evapotranspiration (ETa; mm/d) to determine Crop Water Use (CWU; m3/m2), and 2. Crop Productivity (CP; kg/m2) to estimate crop yield per growing season. Then, CWP was calculated by dividing CP by CWU and mapped. The amount of water that can be saved by increasing CWP of each crop was further calculated. For example, in the 434 million m2 study area, a 10% increase in CWP across the 9 crops analyzed had a potential water savings of 31.5 million m3 of water. An increase in CWP is widely considered the best approach for saving maximum quantities of water. This paper proposed, developed, and implemented a workflow of combined methods utilizing cloud computing based remote sensing data. The environmental implications of this work in assessing water savings for food and water security in the 21st century are expected to be significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to measure particulate matter (PM) total loss rates in three older (1940s, 1960s, and 1980s) elevators in California during two phases and three low-cost intervention modes. Tracer gas decay and <2 μm aerodynamic diameter nontoxic NaCl particles (PM2) were used to calculate PM2 loss rates. The NaCl particles were considered surrogates for smaller particles carrying SARS-CoV-2. Empirical PM2 loss rates were paired with modeled dynamic scenarios to estimate SARS-CoV-2-relevant PM2 removal. Mean loss rates (hr-1) ranged from 1.8 to 184. Compared to a closed-door, stationary elevator, the moving elevators had a fourfold increased mean loss rate (hr-1), while an air cleaner in a stationary elevator increased the mean loss rates sixfold. In a dynamic particle removal simulation of a ten-story elevator, PM was removed 1.38-fold faster with an air cleaner intervention during bottom and top floor stops only (express ride) and 1.12-fold faster with an air cleaner during every other floor stops. The increase in removal rates due to the air cleaner was modest due to the higher moving and open-door removal rates, except during stationary phase. The half-life of PM2 particles in a stationary elevator after all passengers have left can be 8-12 minutes following a single emission and 2-5 minutes with an air cleaner. The low particle removal rate in the stationary elevator requires an intervention so that the particle removal rate will be high to eliminate infectious aerosol. If codes permit, keeping the door open when the elevator is stationary is most effective; otherwise, an air cleaner in a stationary elevator should be used. While an air cleaner is commonly seen as a substantial improvement in reducing potential virus concentration in air, in the moving elevator scenarios, the effect is quite modest. This paper provides empirical particle loss rates inside elevators, the effectiveness of air cleaners in a dynamic elevator space, two approaches to control infectious agents while the elevator is stationary, and support for a precautionary approach towards elevator use amidst a pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Uptake of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) remains low among transgender people as compared to other subgroups, despite high rates of HIV acquisition. In California, Latinx people comprise 40% of the population and Latina transgender women experience some of the highest burden of HIV of any subgroup, indicating a critical need for appropriate services. With funding from the California HIV/AIDS Research Programs, this academic-community partnership developed, implemented, and evaluated a PrEP project that co-located HIV services with gender affirming care in a Federally Qualified Heath Center (FQHC). Trans and Latinx staff led intervention adaptation and activities. Methods: This paper engages qualitative methods to describe how a PrEP demonstration project- Triunfo- successfully engaged Spanish-speaking transgender Latinas in services. We conducted 13 in-depth interviews with project participants and five interviews with providers and clinic staff. Interviews were conducted in Spanish or English. We conducted six months of ethnographic observation of intervention activities and recorded field notes. We conducted thematic analysis. Results: Beneficial elements of the intervention centered around three intertwined themes: creating trusted space, providing comprehensive patient navigation, and offering social support "entre nosotras" ("between us women/girls"). The combination of these factors contributed to the intervention's success supporting participants to initiate and persist on PrEP, many of whom had previously never received healthcare. Participants shared past experiences with transphobia and concerns around discrimination in a healthcare setting. Developing trust proved foundational to making participants feel welcome and "en casa/ at home" in the healthcare setting, which began from the moment participants entered the clinic and continued throughout their interactions with staff and providers. A gender affirming, bilingual clinician and peer health educators (PHE) played a critical part in intervention development, participant recruitment, and patient navigation. Conclusions: Our research adds nuance to the existing literature on peer support services and navigation by profiling the multifaced roles that PHE served for participants. PHE proved instrumental to empowering participants to overcome structural and other barriers to healthcare, successfully engaging a group who previously avoided healthcare in clinical settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decisive aspect of site evaluation for construction is the presence of anthropogenic materials occurring in the geological environment. The geotechnical properties of blast-furnace slag were investigated as a potential substitute for aggregates in the construction industry. The basic geotechnical parameters of the slag were determined, which are critical for evaluating its stability, environmental impact, and usability in geotechnical construction. The research focused on monitoring the physical and mechanical properties of the two samples, and also included mineralogical analysis. The obtained results demonstrated that the slag belongs to the category of poorly graded gravel, G2/GP, and gravel with an admixture of fine-grained soil, G3/G-F. In addition, other important parameters, such as the water disintegration of the slag aggregate, the minimum and maximum bulk densities, the California bearing ratio (CBR), the oedometric modulus (Eoed), and shear tests (the angle of internal friction φ and cohesion c), were determined. The results from this paper provide important information for the proper management of blast-furnace slag so to minimize its environmental impact and achieve sustainability in the mining industry. At the same time, it enables a better understanding of the use of slag as a substitute for aggregates in geotechnical tasks. Despite its local importance in relation to the investigated case, the presented study has significant educational and scientific value for the construction sector, where it is necessary to evaluate anthropogenic activities and materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antibiograms are collections of antimicrobial susceptibility data for a particular bacterial organism and host species. Antibiograms are important tools for antimicrobial stewardship, as they may be used to guide empiric antimicrobial therapy and assess trends in antimicrobial resistance, maximizing treatment success and preserving the efficacy of currently available pharmaceuticals. Targeted use of antimicrobials is critically important to minimize the spread of antimicrobial resistance, which may be conveyed between animals and humans directly but may also be spread through the environment and ecological niches, such as soil, water, and wildlife reservoirs. To effectively utilize antibiograms as part of a comprehensive antimicrobial stewardship plan, veterinarians need to know data characteristics, including the source population, body site (when possible), and number of isolates included, in addition to the animal species and bacterial organisms for which each breakpoint was developed. Although widely used in human health systems, antibiograms are not often available in veterinary medicine. This paper describes antibiogram creation and use, discusses antibiogram development by US veterinary diagnostic laboratories, and shares California's process to create and promote livestock antibiograms . The companion Currents in One Health article by Burbick et al, AJVR, September 2023, addresses the benefits and challenges associated with developing veterinary antibiograms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way. Plain Language Summary: Earthquake nowcasting refers to the determination of hazard for major earthquakes at the present time, the recent past, and the near future. Nowcasting is an idea borrowed from economics, markets, and meteorology, where it has been frequently used. In this paper, we show that there is order hidden within chaotic earthquake seismicity using a very simple transformation of the data. Small earthquakes appear to transition from unstable stick‐slip events that produce seismic waves, to stable sliding where no seismic waves are produced. Our hypothesis is that this transition is due to a material phenomenon called strain‐hardening, that is frequently observed in laboratory rock mechanics experiments. The result is a state variable time series, computed over the last 51 years in California, that strongly resembles the long‐anticipated cycle of stress accumulation and release. Using supervised machine learning techniques, we can optimize the two‐parameter model. From that optimized model, we can rigorously calculate the probability of current hazard from major earthquakes. Extending these methods, we can also compute spatial hazard as well. The result is a new method for assessing earthquake hazard that may be useful for a variety of applications. Key Points: "Chaotic" seismicity contains hidden structure in the form of state variable time seriesStandard data science methods can be used to convert the time series to probabilitiesBoth temporal and spatial probabilities can be computed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some of the deadliest wildfires in the U.S., such as California’s 2018 wildfires, have been ignited by power systems. In an effort to prevent and minimize the ignition of wildfires, or control them if ignited, energy companies have developed wildfire mitigation plans. This paper provides energy companies and power system operators, engineers, researchers, and suppliers an overview of the state-of-the-art studies that address key topics in these wildfire mitigation plans and compares the wildfire mitigation plans of several energy companies. The key topics include grid design and system hardening, asset management and inspection, situational awareness and forecasting, operational response, vegetation management, public safety power shutoff, and risk-spend efficiency. This paper also presents a comparison of several energy companies’ decision-making criteria for initiating a public safety power shutoff. Finally, we discuss opportunities for future research studies that could help energy companies prevent wildfire ignitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper proposes a comprehensive optimization program to increase economic efficiency and improve the resiliency. • A demand response program integrated with home energy storage systems is presented to optimize energy consumption. • To modify the consumption pattern of household consumers, a real-time pricing algorithm is proposed. • A self-healing system reconfiguration program integrated with distributed energy resources is presented. • Real data of California households are considered to model the home appliances and home energy storage systems. This paper proposes a comprehensive optimization program to increase economic efficiency and improve the resiliency of the Distribution Network (DN). A Demand Response Program (DRP) integrated with Home Energy Storage Systems (HESSs) is presented to optimize the energy consumption of household consumers. Each consumer implements a Smart Home Energy Management System (SHEMS) to optimize their energy consumption according to their desired comfort and preferences. To modify the consumption pattern of household consumers, a Real-Time Pricing (RTP) algorithm is proposed to reflect the energy price of the wholesale market to the retail market and consumers. In addition, a Self-Healing System Reconfiguration (SHSR) program integrated with Distributed Energy Resources (DER), reactive power compensation equipment, and Energy Storage Systems (ESSs) is presented to manage the DN energy and restore the network loads in disruptive events. The reconfiguration operation is performed by converting the isolated part of the DN from the upstream network to several self-sufficient networked virtual microgrids without executing any switching process. Real data of California households are considered to model the home appliances and HESSs. The proposed comprehensive program is validated on the modified IEEE 123-bus feeder in normal and emergency operating conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context. Three-dimensional (3D) kinetic maps of the Milky Way interstellar medium are an essential tool in studies of its structure and of star formation. Aims. We aim to assign radial velocities to Galactic interstellar clouds now spatially localized based on starlight extinction and star distances from Gaia and stellar surveys. Methods. We developed an automated search for coherent projections on the sky of clouds isolated in 3D extinction density maps on the one hand, and regions responsible for CO radio emissions at specific Doppler shifts on the other hand. The discrete dust structures were obtained by application of the Fellwalker algorithm to a recent 3D extinction density map. For each extinction cloud, a technique using a narrow sliding spectral window moved along the contour-bounded CO spectrum and geometrical criteria was used to select the most likely velocity interval. Results. We applied the new contour-based technique to the 3D extinction density distribution within the volume encompassing the Taurus, Auriga, Perseus, and California molecular complexes. From the 45 clouds issued from the decomposition, 42 were assigned a velocity. The remaining structures correspond to very weak CO emission or extinction. We used the non-automated assignments of radial velocities to clouds of the same region presented in Paper I and based on KI absorption spectra as a validation test. The new fully automated determinations were found to be in good agreement with these previous measurements. Conclusions. Our results show that an automated search based on cloud-contour morphology can be efficient and that this novel technique may be extended to wider regions of the Milky Way and at larger distance. We discuss its limitations and potential improvements after combination with other techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the performance of a multirotor uncrewed aircraft and AirCore system (UAAS) for measuring vertical profiles of wind velocity (speed and direction) and the mole fractions of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), and presents a use case that combines UAAS measurements and dispersion modeling to quantify CH4 emissions from a dairy farm. To evaluate the atmospheric sensing performance of the UAAS, four field deployments were performed at three locations 15 in the San Joaquin Valley of California where CH4 hotspots were observed downwind of dairy farms. A comparison of the observations collected on board the UAAS and an 11-m meteorological tower show that the UAAS can measure wind velocity trends with a root mean squared error varying between 0.4 and 1.1 m s-1 when the wind magnitude is less than 3.5 m s-1. Findings from UAAS flight deployments and a calibration experiment also show that the UAAS can reliably resolve temporal variations in the mole fractions of CH4 and CO2 occurring over 10 second periods or longer. Results from the UAAS and 20 dispersion modeling use case further demonstrate that UAAS have great potential as a low-cost tool for detecting and quantifying CH4 emissions in near real-time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the analytical formulation and computational implementation of a conceptual probabilistic performance-based seismic design (PBSD) framework for ordinary standard bridge (OSB) structures. An updated probabilistic performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) assessment methodology is used for the parametric performance assessment of four distinct OSBs in California to investigate the effects of varying key structural design parameters over a primary design parameter space on risk-based structural performance measures. The dire need for a systematic PBSD framework for OSBs is illustrated given the significant variability in risk-based performance levels exhibited by these traditionally designed testbed OSBs. A PBSD methodology involving the design of the bridge piers is proposed wherein a risk-based feasible design domain in the primary design parameter space is identified which facilitates the risk-informed design/decision making process in the face of uncertainty. Sensitivities of risk-based feasible design domains compared with other (secondary) design variables and with the method employed for damage hazard assessment are investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roads constructed over poor ground conditions that carry high traffic volumes and axle loads may, over time, experience persisting occurrences of pavement distress. Road construction, be it a new or a rehabilitation project, is both costly and time-consuming. An appealing option that improves pavement durability, reduces construction cost and time, accelerates strength development over a short curing period, and decreases pavement thickness is to chemically stabilize local road materials. In contrast to other aggregate materials, there has been a gap in evaluating and quantifying the feasibility of chemical stabilization of sandstone aggregate that possesses marginal quality as a road construction material. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to provide an experimental investigation of relative strength development of sandstone aggregate subbase of marginal quality stabilized with combinations of Portland composite cement (PCC), ordinary Portland cement (OPC), and styrene–butadiene latex copolymer (or polymer). The samples were prepared with different gravel-to-sand (G:S) ratios of 2.1, 1.2, and 0.4 and subsequently stabilized with a polymer-cement (P/C) blend. Samples were compacted and cured under dry and wet conditions before measuring their unconfined compressive strength (UCS), indirect tensile strength (ITS), and California bearing ratio (CBR). At the same curing condition and P/C contents, it was found that the UCS and CBR of P/C-stabilized samples increased with increasing G:S ratios. At the same polymer and cement contents, the P/C-stabilized samples with the highest G:S ratio of 2.1 also demonstrated a significantly higher rate of UCS strength development compared with the samples with lower G:S ratio and unstabilized samples. Soil stabilization with a combination of 0.75% polymer and 5% cement contents yielded the highest UCS that was approximately seven times the UCS of unstabilized samples and an ITS of 0.73 MPa. Stabilization with a combination of 0.75% polymer and 3% cement contents yielded the highest CBR value that significantly exceeded 30% after only 4 days of soaking and was seven times that of unstabilized samples. This paper has thus demonstrated the potential improvement to the strength development of sandstone aggregate subbase stabilized with P/C blend under the optimal curing condition and the importance of identifying and using the optimal proportion of polymer and cement to achieve the target strength development and improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A natural experiment conducted on the shrinking Salton Sea, a saline lake in California, showed that each one foot drop in lake elevation resulted in a 2.6% average increase in P M 2.5 concentrations. The shrinking has caused the asthma rate continues to increase among children, with one in five children being sent to the emergency department, which is related to asthma. In this paper, several data-driven machine learning (ML) models are developed for forecasting air quality and dust emission to study, evaluate and predict the impacts on human health due to the shrinkage of the sea, such as the Salton Sea. The paper presents an improved long short-term memory (LSTM) model to predict the hourly air quality ( O 3 and CO ) based on air pollutants and weather data in the previous 5 h. According to our experiment results, the model generates a very good R2 score of 0.924 and 0.835 for O 3 and CO , respectively. In addition, the paper proposes an ensemble model based on random forest (RF) and gradient boosting (GBoost) algorithms for forecasting hourly P M 2.5 and P M 10 using the air quality and weather data in the previous 5 h. Furthermore, the paper shares our research results for P M 2.5 and P M 10 prediction based on the proposed ensemble ML models using satellite remote sensing data. Daily P M 2.5 and P M 10 concentration maps in 2018 are created to display the regional air pollution density and severity. Finally, the paper reports Artificial Intelligence (AI) based research findings of measuring air pollution impact on asthma prevalence rate of local residents in the Salton Sea region. A stacked ensemble model based on support vector regression (SVR), elastic net regression (ENR), RF and GBoost is developed for asthma prediction with a good R2 score of 0.978. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Secondary crashes (SCs) are typically defined as the crash that occurs within the spatiotemporal boundaries of the impact area of the primary crashes (PCs), which will intensify traffic congestion and induce a series of road safety issues. Predicting and analyzing the time and distance gaps between the SCs and PCs will help to prevent the occurrence of SCs. In this paper, a combined data-driven method of static and dynamic approaches is applied to identify SCs. Then, the random forests (RF) method is implemented to predict the two gaps using temporal, primary crash, roadway, and real-time traffic characteristics data collected from 2016 to 2019 at California interstate freeways. Subsequently, the SHapley Additive explanation (SHAP) approach is employed to interpret the RF outputs. The results show that the traffic volume, speed, lighting, and population are considered the most significant factors in both gaps. Furthermore, the main and interaction effects of factors are also quantified. High volume possibly promotes the time and distance gaps, while low volume inhibits them. And volume affects the distance gap inconsiderably when it falls between 300 and 400 veh/5 min. Traffic conditions with high speed and low volume are strongly associated with short-time and short-distance gaps. Darker surroundings probably accelerate the occurrence of SCs. Moreover, crashes involving the violation categories of improper turns or unsafe lane changes likely result in long time and distance gaps. These results have important implications for proposing traffic management and improving road safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents invitation for posters and papers for the 2013 IEEE International Reliability Physics Symposium (IRPS) to be held in Monterey, California from April 14-18, 2013. Among the areas where papers should be focused include electronic systems, automotive reliability, and circuit aging simulation. It notes the awards to be given by IRPS including Outstanding Paper, Best Student Talk, Best Poster, and Best Paper.

This paper presents the first systematic study on power control strategies for Modular-Gravity Energy Storage (M-GES), a novel, high-performance, large-scale energy storage technology with significant research and application potential. Addressing the current research gap in M-GES power control technology, we propose two corresponding compensation modes and several power control strategies for Hybrid M-GES and M-GES. The effectiveness of these strategies is validated through simulations on the MATLAB/Simulink platform, including tests using sinusoidal power and feasibility verification based on a natural California load curve. Additionally, we analyze the normal and abnormal operating conditions of M-GES. In conclusion, the characteristics of the proposed control strategies are summarized, providing a guideline for further research. [Display omitted] • Modular-gravity energy storage (M-GES) power control system studied. • Two compensation modes and four control strategies are systematically studied and validated. • The center switching method with hysteresis control (CSM-H) excels in continuous compensation mode. • The center switching method with hysteresis control and dead zone (CSM-HD) excels in overlap compensation mode. • Based on the power control system proposed in this paper, the M-GES plant performs highly in natural power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of communities' vulnerability to prolonged power outages offers valuable insights for prioritizing improvements in infrastructure resilience, thereby alleviating societal consequences. This study proposes a data-driven approach aiming at developing a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) to prolonged power outages leveraging three county-level datasets in California including (1) demographic features, (2) power outage factors, and (3) backup power factors. Furthermore, the study conducts a sensitivity analysis on three distinct datasets under two scenarios (Scenario 1: the current SoVI in 2022, Scenario 2: the prediction of SoVI in the year 2030). The results of Scenario 1 indicate that the counties with more affected customers, the number of power outages, and less education attainment tend to be more vulnerable to power outages in 2022. Scenario 1 reveals that the number of affected customers and power outages are the primary features influencing around 29% and 18% of counties, while educational attainment, public Electric Vehicles (EVs) chargers, and homes with rooftop photovoltaic (PV) substantially impact approximately 32%, 11%, and 8% of counties, respectively. However, in Scenario 2, crucial factors affecting the anticipated SoVI in 2030 include public EV chargers, houses with rooftop PV, power outages, and adults living alone. In contrast to Scenario 1, the prevalence of adults living alone has emerged as a notable factor impacting SoVI in 2030, while both scenarios underscore the pivotal role of EV chargers in influencing SoVI concerning power outages. The proposed SoVI facilitates informed policy decisions and infrastructure improvements in energy resilience, resource allocation, and disaster preparedness, contributing valuable insights for targeted interventions in these domains. • A data-driven approach was proposed to quantify the social vulnerability index (SoVI) to power outages. • This paper applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify the most correlated features from county-level datasets. • The paper conducts a sensitivity analysis to predict SoVI in2030 and evaluate how counties' dynamics change over time. • This paper provides insights into how policymakers can reduce the social vulnerability to power outages in California. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new machine learning‐based method for nowcasting earthquakes to image the time‐dependent earthquake cycle. The result is a timeseries that may correspond to the process of stress accumulation and release. The timeseries are constructed by using principal component analysis of regional seismicity. The patterns are found as eigenvectors of the cross‐correlation matrix of a collection of seismicity timeseries in a coarse grained regional spatial grid (pattern recognition via unsupervised machine learning). The eigenvalues of this matrix represent the relative importance of the various eigenpatterns. Using the eigenvectors and eigenvalues, we compute the weighted correlation timeseries of the regional seismicity. This timeseries has the property that the weighted correlation generally decreases prior to major earthquakes in the region, and increases suddenly just after a major earthquake occurs. As in a previous paper (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ea001097), we find that this method produces a nowcasting timeseries that resembles the hypothesized regional stress accumulation and release process characterizing the earthquake cycle. We then address the problem of whether the timeseries contain information regarding future large earthquakes. For this, we compute a receiver operating characteristic and determine the decision thresholds for several future time periods of interest (optimization via supervised machine learning). We find that signals can be detected that can be used to characterize the information content of the timeseries. These signals may be useful in assessing present and near‐future seismic hazards. Plain Language Summary: Major earthquakes on fault systems in a tectonically active region are thought to occur in approximately repetitive cycles as a result of the buildup and release of tectonic forces (stress). Nowcasting is a technique adopted from weather, finance, and other fields that use readily observable proxy data to represent the unobservable stress accumulation process of interest. This paper presents a method that computes a timeseries representing the weighted correlation of small earthquake activity in the California region from 1950 to 2020. Prior to major magnitude M > 7 earthquakes, the timeseries trends toward lower values. Just after the earthquake occurs, the timeseries increases suddenly in association with the earthquake, before resuming its gradual trend toward lower values. Plotting the timeseries on an inverted scale, one sees a cyclic behavior that strongly resembles the hypothesized earthquake cycle. In principle, we can therefore use this timeseries for nowcasting, as a proxy for stress accumulation and release. Using methods of signal detection first developed for radar by the British in the 1940's, we find that the timeseries contain information about future large earthquakes that can be used for hazard assessment. Key Points: The current state of the earthquake cycle of tectonic stress accumulation and release is unobservable with existing methodsWe show that readily observable small earthquake correlations can be used to nowcast the current state of the earthquake cycleMachine learning techniques indicate that signals corresponding to future large earthquakes can be detected in a correlation time series [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a modeling approach for characterizing the probability of wildfire ignition caused by faults on power distribution systems. The proposed model serves as a starting point in research literature to illustrate, from an analytical perspective, the many factors that influence wildfire ignitions in power distribution systems. This paper presents the series of events that leads to power-system-related wildfire ignitions, and characterizes the wildfire ignition probability as a combination of the probability that a fault occurs along a power distribution line segment, and the probability that the fault results in the sustained ignition of a vegetation fuel bed surrounding the line. The proposed model integrates a variety of data including environmental conditions, power system protection settings, and power system line flows. A case study is performed on a test 33-bus distribution system using observed historical weather data from a high-threat fire district in California. The California case study is utilized to investigate the effects of three primary factors (wind speed, line congestion, and protection settings) on wildfire ignition probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Excessive use of groundwater resources in the Central Valley in California has led to major land sinking over the years. In this study, we rely on satellite imagery to monitor and assess the extent of this sinking. Specifically, we use images from a satellite that emits microwaves which allows us to directly obtain the deformation at a specific time. Then, we apply a machine learning algorithm to the resulting data in an attempt to effectively predict short-term future deformation. We find that the algorithm applied has a low error when compared to the actual data. This shows that machine learning algorithms could be incorporated into models that assess potential hazards associated with land sinking. Land subsidence caused by excessive groundwater pumping in Central Valley, California, is a major issue that has several negative impacts such as reduced aquifer storage and damaged infrastructures which, in turn, produce an economic loss due to the high reliance on crop production. This is why it is of utmost importance to routinely monitor and assess the surface deformation occurring. Two main goals that this paper attempts to accomplish are deformation characterization and deformation prediction. The first goal is realized through the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to a series of Interferomtric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images that produces eigenimages displaying the key characteristics of the subsidence. Water storage changes are also directly analyzed by the use of data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). The second goal is accomplished by building a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict short-term deformation after developing an InSAR time series using LiCSBAS, an open-source InSAR time series package. The model is applied to the city of Madera and produces better results than a baseline averaging model and a one dimensional convolutional neural network (CNN) based on a mean squared error metric showing the effectiveness of machine learning in deformation prediction as well as the potential for incorporation in hazard mitigation models. The model results can directly aid policy makers in determining the appropriate rate of groundwater withdrawal while maintaining the safety and well-being of the population as well as the aquifers' integrity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unnatural disasters, such as floods and wildfires, are making many areas difficult to inhabit. For relocation to unfold in a safer and more equitable way, it must be done in a manner that (1) aligns with community values in each locality, (2) navigates legal barriers to managed retreat, and (3) creates blue-sky funding for adaptation, including managed retreat planning and implementation. This paper argues that developers continuing to build in climate vulnerable areas could and should help cover the risk of their actions. Part I lays out the legal importance of planning for retreat, as well as the need for initial funding for community-level planning and experienced personnel. Few scholars have explored options for municipalities to fund difficult conversations about and initial steps towards managing retreat. Thus, Part II explores how community benefit agreements between communities and developers in climate-vulnerable areas could play a role in bridging the gap between research and implementation. Part II also introduces the idea of a climate resilience development fee, which could provide the needed blue-sky funding to implement managed retreat. Part III analyzes the validity of a climate resilience impact fee in California and Florida, two states in which the consequences of climate change are severe enough for communities to begin to consider managed retreat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing machine learning (ML) models for vibration-based damage assessments often use highly compressed features or are restricted to preprocessed signals with fixed durations and sampling rates. Additionally, the learning capacities of ML models and computational resources are limited, which restricts using raw signals as direct input. This paper studied Mel filter banks (MFBs) for seismic signal processing, inspired by speech recognition technology. It is argued that the same filter designs in audio engineering may not be appropriate for seismic records, and therefore, a customized filter bank formulation was developed. Hybrid deep learning models for rapid assessments (HyDRA) were introduced as multibranch neural network architectures that enable end-to-end training for different types of processed vibration data structures. Moreover, the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) equation was adjusted to integrate ML model uncertainties for probabilistic assessments. The proposed concepts were validated in a case study based on a data set of 32,400 nonlinear time-history analyses of a highway bridge in California. Insights and guidelines are provided for optimum filter design based on 5,184 experiments. Several HyDRA architectures were compared with benchmark models. The optimized MFB feature type outperformed features obtained from continuous wavelet transform and a stacked vector of conventional earthquake engineering indexes. A Bayesian variant of HyDRA was investigated to showcase its integration in the modified PBEE equation. Adopting custom filter banks with the HyDRA architecture enables effective feature extraction from raw vibration records by diversifying feature space and preserving information in the time and frequency domains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]