Search

This paper examines the trade–peace nexus in Africa and ascertains how poverty and inequality tilt the relationship in the eight regional (economic) blocs in Africa, viz. the Arab Maghreb Union (UMA), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Community of Sahel–Saharan States (CEN–SAD), the East African Community (EAC), the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC), from 1998 to 2020 using the Driscoll–Kraay estimate. The study contributes to the literature by disaggregating the peace effect of trade in Africa by the regional (economic) blocs to allow for in‐depth and context‐specific analysis. The paper also expands the scope of existing studies by examining the direct effect of poverty and inequality on peace in addition to the indirect effect that is revealed through their interactions with trade integrations. The findings reveal that trade promotes peace in Africa, while wide income inequality and a large poverty gap increase the likelihood of conflict. The interaction of poverty and inequality with trade integration shows that while the poverty level does not improve the effect of trade on peace, inequality reduces the impact of trade on peace. The study concludes that poverty and inequality play significant roles in the trade–peace nexus in Africa. Policy recommendations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses patterns in regional inequality within and between Malaysia's 14 states, drawing upon estimates of Kuznets/Williamson curves, σ- and β-convergence and spatial spillovers. The path of regional inequality contradicts Kuznets predictions. Regional inequality initially fell but has subsequently risen with further economic development. While Malaysian governments have been successful at reducing poverty, they have been unable to curtail regional inequality in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the distributional consequences of farm income mobility in Scotland, focusing on the extent to which farm income inequality is a chronic as opposed to a temporary phenomenon and on the nature of the dynamic processes driving changes in farm income inequality over time. The empirical results reveal that the majority of farm income inequality was long-run or structural in nature, reflecting differences in both farm business size and farm-specific factors such as land quality, managerial ability and business structures. Evidence of absolute convergence in farm incomes is explained by short-run adjustments towards equilibrium or target incomes conditional upon prices, technology and farm business size, with farm business growth conditional upon survival found to have had no significant redistributive effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the past decade, commodities prices have risen substantially and the trend is likely to persist as attested by recent OECD-FAO projections. The recent debate has not reached a clear consensus on the effects of this trend on poverty and income inequality in LDCs, thus complicating the policy planning process. Our paper aims at analysing the likely welfare and income inequality impacts of food price trends in three sub-Saharan countries, namely Tanzania, Ghana and Ethiopia. Moreover, we test the statistical significance of changes in income inequalities. Although Tanzania is not affected, we find that price changes tend to exacerbate the income inequalities in Ethiopia and Ghana, especially for specific groups of households. The policy implications are relevant. Finally, our paper underlines the relevance of statistical inference in analysis on income inequalities, to conclude on welfare and inequalities effects of food price movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper starts out from a puzzle. During the past thirty years, incomes have grown more unequal, a small group at the top has captured a much greater share of resources and poverty has increased. Despite this, most people are markedly less likely to want government to redistribute income or tackle poverty and are less sympathetic towards those without jobs. The greater insecurity of many people's lives in the current crisis renders the issue more perplexing. This paper describes trends in inequality, poverty and unemployment; presents new data on attitudes, media discussion and political platforms; discusses theoretical approaches from social psychologists, political scientists, sociologists and other commentators; and considers how a more generous welfare state might be pursued. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefit of growth experienced since 2000 in Africa has not been broadly shared. Poverty fell by only 8.0 percentage points between 1990 and 2010 compared to the targeted 28.3 percentage points by 2015. Although income inequality fell by 4.3 percent between 1990 and 2009, Africa remains the second most unequal region globally after Latin America and the Caribbean region. Fiscal policies play important roles in reducing poverty and inequality through such instruments as taxes, transfers and government spending. Countries with high fiscal space tend to have lower poverty rates than those with lower tax revenue to GDP ratios. Indeed, fiscal space alone tends to account for 16.5 percent of changes in poverty reduction. Institutions play an important role in increasing fiscal space in Africa. Countries with increasing participatory, transparent and accountable budgetary process tend to have stronger impact of fiscal space on poverty and inequality reduction. Although 29 countries recorded declines in the distributional effectiveness of their fiscal policies over time, the distributional impact rose by 35 percent or more in countries such as Angola, Mozambique, South Africa and Togo. This paper calls for enhancing the non-extractive revenues by diversifying revenues sources from the extractive sectors and improving progressive taxation in countries with high fiscal space and high income inequality. Heavy investment in quality and accessible education and health services, and social programs are also vital to reduce poverty and inequality in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How much does the 2001 census tell us about the changes in people's life in British cities and regions since 1991? This paper attempts to answer this question by telling the stories of two British northern cities: Leeds and Sheffield. In particular, the paper investigates and compares socio-economic change in these cities on the basis of actual 1991 and 2001 census data as well as estimated non-census data. A static spatial microsimulation model is used to combine the outputs of the 1991 and 2001 censuses of UK population with data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) data. In particular, selected Small Area Statistics (SAS) tables from the 1991 and 2001 censuses are used as constraints in the spatial microsimulation modelling exercise, which aims to reweight BHPS household records so that they satisfy these constraints. The paper briefly discusses the change in these census variables across different localities of the two cities. It is then shown how the changes in these variables affect the simulation of non-census variables. Further, the microsimulation model is used to estimate the trends in income inequalities and child poverty between and within the two cities. Finally, the paper discusses the implication of the research findings for policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the impact off fifteen years of economic and social change on income inequality and poverty in New Zealand. The paper considers how a consensual poverty line was established through the use of a series of focus groups. This leads into a discussion on who was poor in 1998. Problems in measuring trends in the incidence and severity of poverty during a period when economic growth is absent and the income distribution is widening are then analysed. The discussion briefly incorporates current New Zealand debates on benefit dependency, intergenerational transmission of poverty and social exclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we have presented the patterns of inequality, growth and income inequality in the MENA region. Using a cross-sectional time series data of MENA countries for the period 1985-2009, we have also investigated the effect of income inequality on key societal development, namely economic growth and poverty, in the region. Our empirical results show that income inequality reduces economic growth and increases poverty in the region. Other factors having significant negative effect on economic growth in the MENA region include previous growth rate, exchange rate, government consumption expenditure or government burden, initial per capita GDP, inflation and primary education. On the other hand, variables positively and significantly associated with MENA's economic growth are domestic investment rate, urbanization, infrastructure development, and mineral rent as a percentage of GDP. In addition, apart from income inequality, other factors increasing poverty in the region are foreign direct investment, population growth, inflation rate, and the attainment of only primary education. Poverty-reducing variables in the region include domestic investment, trade openness, exchange rate, income per capita, and oil rents as a percentage of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a brief account of welfare changes in Zimbabwe along the income and education dimensions between 1995 and 2003. Using sequential dominance procedures, we find that education attainment substantially improved over time. However, these gains did not necessarily translate into poverty reduction, rather welfare over the joint distribution of income and education dramatically deteriorated. These results are robust for all education partitions, income thresholds and a broad class of welfare indices. A further inquiry into the factors underlying this apparent disconnection between education and income using decomposition techniques reveals that the increase in poverty incidence cannot be attributed to household characteristics but is reflective of the broader socio-economic trends prevailing at the time. The decline in economic growth contributed tremendously to the decline in welfare while inequality changes account for a small proportion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia continually tries to open its economy through free trade areas (FTAs) on bilateral, regional, and multilateral bases. This paper discusses the impacts of FTAs on the Indonesian economy, particularly for economic growth, poverty, and income distribution. By using a Global Computable General Equilibrium (GCGE) model, we conducted the simulation analysis by setting eighteen scenarios for the ongoing and potential FTAs of different frameworks. Indonesia is found to benefit from joining in FTAs, except for the FTA with India. It is also implied that FTAs increase rural household income at higher rates than they increase urban household income. Moreover, FTAs' impacts are more favorable for unskilled workers than for skilled ones, and also for relatively poor households more than for rich households, both in urban and rural areas. In brief, FTAs provide Indonesia with income redistribution effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Levels of child poverty in Northern Ireland are high; 32 per cent of children live in households whose only income derives from benefits, compared with 19 per cent of children in Britain living in families totally dependent on benefits. Unemployment, low pay, a higher cost of living, low levels of public services, including childcare and support services for people with disabilities, slightly larger families and a lack of access by poorer women to the means of limiting their family size, together with even greater levels of inequality than in Britain, all contribute to the high levels of child poverty in Northern Ireland. This paper argues that even the less ambitious child poverty targets announced by the Department of Work and Pensions at the end of 2003 will not be met unless there is a fundamental change in the government's approach. In particular, evidence from Northern Ireland suggests that its insistence on work as the primary—if not only—route out of poverty will not lead to a radical reduction in levels of child poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a profile of poverty in Egypt for 1997. It assesses the magnitude of poverty and its distribution across geographic and socioeconomic groups, provides information on the characteristics of the poor, illustrates the heterogeneity amongst the poor, and helps identify empirical correlates of poverty. This poverty profile is constructed using data from the Egypt Integrated Household Survey (EIHS), which is a nationwide, multiple-topic household survey. One of the more striking set of findings relates to the differences between the poor and the non-poor in their educational attainments. Our results indicate a significant literacy and schooling gap between the poor and the non-poor. On average the poor have 2.6 fewer years of schooling than the non-poor, and their literacy rate is 27 percent lower than the non-poor. Our results also indicate that augmenting educational attainment of the poor does not require building more schools, but reducing the poor’s opportunity cost of attending schools and increasing their returns from extra schooling, both suggesting the importance of income generating activities as a policy instrument. Le présent article dresse un profil de la pauvreté en Égypte pour l’année 1997. Il évalue l’ampleur du phénomène de pauvreté et sa répartition entre les groupes géographiques et socio-économiques, présente les caractéristiques des pauvres, illustre l’hétérogénéité des situations de pauvreté, et aide à identifier les corrélats empiriques de la pauvreté. Ce profil de la pauvreté se fonde sur des données tirées de l’Enquête intégrée sur les ménages en Égypte (EIHS), un sondage national portant sur une multiplicité de sujets. L’un des constats les plus marquants concerne les différences entre les pauvres et les non pauvres en... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's growth has led to massive flows of migrants. To analyse the determinants of inter-provincial migration hypotheses from the classical migration theory, the new economic geography, gravity approach, and the new economics of labour migration have been derived. All traditional assumptions could be confirmed. Inter-provincial differentials of urban poverty and differentials in inequality do matter. Inequality is regarded as opportunity and motivation to move. The analysis of push-pull factors of gross migration suggests that pull factors are average wages, unemployment rates, urbanization and income disparity. Urban poverty can be regarded as a counter-pull factor. Rural poverty and average wage are push factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irene Wennemo's paper "Infant mortality, public policy and inequality: a comparison of 18 industrialised countries 1950-85" takes an important step further in the understanding of the relationship between social policy and infant mortality in developed countries. The German figures for 1981 can therefore be seen as a potential refutation of the effect of income distribution on national mortality rates which turned into a confirmation. In countries where data are lacking, one might almost suggest that life expectancy should be used as a proxy for income distribution, or infant mortality for relative poverty. But that would come unstuck among pre1989 Eastern European countries. Their mortality rates were relatively high despite comparatively small differences in income. The link between income distribution and national mortality rates which Wennemo and the author have shown has important implications for the understanding of the relationship between health inequalities and national mortality rates. It implies that health inequalities are not simply variations in health round an independently established national average, but that the amount of health inequality in each society represents a net burden on overall national standards of health.