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Aim: As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision‐making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two‐stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways. Location: Central Valley, California, USA. Methods: We used a two‐stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N‐mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species‐ and habitat‐specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance. Results: We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased. Main Conclusions: Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat‐buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human‐induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adverse climate changes in Pakistan undermine the water resources and give rise to transient and permanent droughts in different parts of the country. The occurrence of drought cannot be prevented, but its detrimental impacts can be brought down by proper pre‐drought planning. Effective planning owes to using scientific and probabilistic approaches. In this paper, the interarrival time of drought for seven operational drought indices in Pakistan is modelled by using the modified distribution of convolution derived from the Bivariate Affine Linear Exponential (BALE) distribution. A new stochastic variable, interarrival time of drought, is generated from the data of drought indices from 1951 to 2016 used in Pakistan by applying the theory of runs. The proposed model identifies Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI) as the most appropriate meteorological indices for the under‐study country. The quantiles of the model are computed that provide information about the interarrival time of drought and help to anticipate this phenomenon. In addition, return periods for all the seven indices are calculated to report the frequency and duration of drought over a certain period. Finally, some recommendations for the National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC) and Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) are stated for better future planning to avoid the adverse impacts of drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local governments have led the way on climate action in the United States. While the federal government has largely stood to the side, local governments have made great efforts to adopt policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A large and robust literature in urban politics has explored the variables that influence local government action on climate change in the United States. Issue severity and resident ideological preferences have been identified as two of the most important factors in local climate action. Governments that are more likely to face major impacts from climate, such as coastal communities, and governments serving more liberal residents have both been found to pursue climate policy at higher rates. In this paper we suggest that these relationships are better understood as conditional. We argue that the effect of issue severity will be moderated by ideology. When residents are liberal, issue severity will matter. When residents are conservative, the impact will be muted. We find strong evidence for this hypothesis. Coastal governments and governments that have experienced drought adopt more climate policies, but this is conditional on the ideology of residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The high‐mountain system, a storehouse of major waterways that support important ecosystem services to about 1.5 billion people in the Himalaya, is facing unprecedented challenges due to climate change during the 21st century. Intensified floods, accelerating glacial retreat, rapid permafrost degradation, and prolonged droughts are altering the natural hydrological balances and generating unpredictable spatial and temporal distributions of water availability. Anthropogenic activities are adding further pressure onto Himalayan waterways. The fundamental question of waterway management in this region is therefore how this hydro‐meteorological transformation, caused by climate change and anthropogenic perturbations, can be tackled to find avenues for sustainability. This requires a framework that can diagnose threats at a range of spatial and temporal scales and provide recommendations for strong adaptive measures for sustainable future waterways. This focus paper assesses the current literature base to bring together our understanding of how recent climatic changes have threatened waterways in the Asian Himalayas, how society has been responding to rapidly changing waterway conditions, and what adaptive options are available for the region. The study finds that Himalayan waterways are crucial in protecting nature and society. The implementation of integrated waterways management measures, the rapid advancement of waterway infrastructure technologies, and the improved governance of waterways are more critical than ever. This article is categorized under:Engineering Water > Sustainable Engineering of Water [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought seriously endangers the development of agro‐pastoral ecotone in arid and semi‐arid regions. However, drought evolution characteristics of semi‐arid sandy grassland and its drivers are not well understood in the complex climate change context. Thus, in this paper, the revised standardized precipitation evaporation indices on one‐month (SPEI‐1) and growing‐season (SPEI‐6) scale, flash drought and dry spells (DS) were calculated as drought indicators, and the temporal variabilities and meteorological drivers of drought in Horqin Sandy Land during the growing period (April–September) from 2007 to 2021 were studied. The results showed that SPEI‐1 and SPEI‐6 exhibited negative trends and periodic change. This drought aggravation was manifested in increased grades and numbers of drought months. Flash droughts can occur every month during the growing season. And its occurrence was not only positively correlated with all drought events in frequency but also synchronized in time. The increased number of DS showed an asymmetrical shift towards 7‐day‐and‐longer DS. SPEI sensitivity to precipitation (P) was noticeably higher than to atmospheric evapotranspiration demand (AED) at both monthly and growing season scales. SPEI sensitivity to AED was modulated by P amounts, which was higher during low P period. Apart from the amounts of P and AED, their temporal variability also strongly determined how they affect the drought severity. P was also the main driver for flash drought and long DS, but AED with larger amount and higher variability is the reason for their aggravation. Our results demonstrate the complexity of drought intensification in semi‐arid sandy grasslands and highlight the important role of AED anomalies in it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Drought is intensifying globally with climate change, creating an urgency to understand ecosystem response to drought both during and after these events end to limit loss of ecosystem functioning. The literature is replete with studies of how ecosystems respond during drought, yet there are far fewer studies focused on ecosystem dynamics after drought ends. Furthermore, while the terms used to describe drought can be variable and inconsistent, so can those that describe ecosystem responses following drought. With this review, we sought to evaluate and create clear definitions of the terms that ecologists use to describe post‐drought responses. We found that legacy effects, resilience and recovery were used most commonly with respect to post‐drought ecosystem responses, but the definitions used to describe these terms were variable. Based on our review of the literature, we propose a framework for generalizing ecosystem responses after drought ends, which we refer to as 'the post‐drought period'. We suggest that future papers need to clearly describe characteristics of the imposed drought, and we encourage authors to use the term post‐drought period as a general term that encompasses responses after drought ends and use other terms as more specific descriptors of responses during the post‐drought period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of observed trends in extreme rainfall events in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). These are discussed in relation to hydrometeorological hazards that trigger natural disasters, such as flash floods, landslides, and droughts, that affect the population and local economies. A review of the most updated literature on rainfall and extremes in the MASP shows a significant increase in the total volume of rainy-season rainfall during the last seven decades. While there were practically no days with heavy rain (more than 50 mm) in the 1950s, these days have been occurring two to five times a year in the last 10 years. This, together with the inappropriate occupation of risky areas, such as slopes and banks of watercourses, leads to inundation, flooding, and landslides. Changes in extremes can be partly due to natural climate variability but can also be related to global warming and/or urbanization. There is ample evidence of an increasing risk of rainfall-related hazards in theMASP. This is particularly so for landslides in vulnerable areas. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. This calls for significant improvement in climate and disaster risk reduction and management efforts in theMASP region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model‐based sensitivity experiments are a widely used method for studying climate change attributions. In traditional climate sensitivity studies, "climate drift" occurs because of the accumulation of model errors during long‐term integrations, both in "actual" and "hypothetical" states. A more accurate piecewise‐integration method is used to reduce the model errors, dividing the continuous simulation into a series of sequential short‐term simulations. The model fields are updated at the end of each subinterval with analysis data for the "actual" state run, and with the sum of the analysis data and the difference between "hypothetical" and "actual" states for the "hypothetical" state run. This paper conducts sensitivity experiments with the continuous‐integration method and the piecewise‐integration method to evaluate the impacts of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on the severe drought that occurred in southwestern China (SWC) in the winter of 2009/2010. The results show the following. (a) Model errors produced by the piecewise‐integration method for the actual state simulation are significantly less than those produced by the continuous‐integration method. (b) The intensity of the drought is significantly overestimated in continuous‐integration experiments. However, the drought can be accurately simulated in its spatial distribution and intensity via the piecewise‐integration method. Thus, climate sensitivity to changes in external forcing can be studied with greater credibility. (c) The warm central Pacific Ocean SSTAs may be the main cause of the drought over SWC. Adequate precipitation occurred over SWC when the centre of the SSTAs shifted to the east. (d) Warm SSTAs over the central Pacific Ocean influenced precipitation over SWC by weakening the water vapour transport branch from South China Sea to SWC. With a deficit of water vapour, the pronounced subsidence and warm temperatures were the main dynamic and thermodynamic factors that caused and maintained the drought. Model‐based sensitivity experiment is a method of studying climate change attributions. In traditional climate sensitivity studies, "climate drift" occurs both in "actual" and "hypothetical" states. Therefore, the scientific value of climate sensitivity experiments is questioned. In this study, piecewise‐integration method (shown in the figure) is used to significantly reduce model errors caused by inaccuracies of analysis fields, to improve the accuracies of climate sensitivity simulations and to evaluate the impacts of the Pacific Ocean SSTAs on a drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The MaRIUS‐G2G datasets were produced for the MaRIUS (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) project, using the Grid‐to‐Grid (G2G) national‐scale hydrological model for Great Britain. There are six separate datasets, with each of three combinations of meteorological driving data (two observation‐based and one from climate model ensembles) used to produce two types of outputs (daily time‐series of natural river flow for 260 sites, and monthly 1 × 1 km grids of natural flow and soil moisture in the unsaturated zone). The driving data required by G2G are rainfall and potential evaporation (PE). Two of the datasets from observation‐based driving data use rainfall from CEH‐GEAR (CEH‐Gridded Estimates of Areal Rainfall) with PE from MORECS (Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System), and cover the period 1960–2015, while the other two use CEH‐GEAR rainfall with PE derived from 5 km temperature data using the Oudin method, and cover 1891–2015. The two datasets based on driving data (rainfall and PE) from the climate model ensembles cover three periods: Historical Baseline (1900–2006), Near‐Future (2020–2049), and Far‐Future (2070–2099). Data for a 30‐year Baseline period (1975–2004), against which the Near‐Future and Far‐Future periods should be compared, are also available directly. There are 100 members in each ensemble, and the future periods use the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. This paper provides details of the G2G model and the different sets of meteorological driving data, as well as the availability and formatting of the output datasets. It also describes some recent and potential applications of the datasets, which have already been used to support historical and future analyses of low flow and drought characteristics across Britain, and provides some guidance on how the climate model‐driven datasets should (and should not) be used. Open Practices: This article has earned an Open Data badge for making publicly available the digitally‐shareable data necessary to reproduce the reported results. The data is available at DOI 10.5285/5f3c1a02-d5c4-4faa-9353-e8b68ce2ace2. Learn more about the Open Practices badges from the Center for Open Science: https://osf.io/tvyxz/wiki. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies of climate change from both natural science and social science disciplines are increasingly turning their focus to the issue of extreme events. Extreme heat waves, storms, droughts, and coastal inundations pose a disproportionate risk to human life, livelihood, and capital across the world. In the Global South, including Africa, much of the adverse impacts come from hydroclimate extremes as people with limited means are often highly vulnerable to climate shocks. The focus of this review paper will be on hydroclimate extremes in Africa. This paper will consider observations and modeling studies of heat extremes, drought, and flooding from heavy rainfall, along with observations and modeling studies of extreme streamflow events in major rivers and extremes of lake level. This being said, observations of trends in extreme events need to be situated in a context of understanding regional hydroclimate variability. There is tremendous diversity and variability in the hydroclimate of Africa and many extreme events, especially of precipitation and streamflow are associated with patterns of natural variability on a range of time scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water is an important key to understand Maya society, especially water availability within a context of climatic changes. Increasing drought would have pushed the Maya water systems into collapse. This paper studies the Maya water systems from an action‐oriented perspective, in order to understand what challenges the Maya had to overcome when dealing with water. The systems found at Tikal serve as main example, allowing comparisons with other Maya sites. In this analysis, hydraulic‐ and agent‐based elements are combined in a model to investigate the performance of the water system within extreme weather conditions and changing human agency. The results suggest that the Tikal water system was able to cope with most of the extreme situations. Furthermore, model results allow proposing that the Maya did not anticipate on short‐term changes in external conditions. Generally, in Tikal surpluses of water may have been as important as shortages of water. The extensive system of drains and canals present at Tikal may have been built to move water from the center of the city rather than to supply water to lower situated reservoirs during the dry season. Such a water‐removal system could be less centrally orientated and organized than is often argued. This could also mean that organizational structures of water systems of different city centers (Tikal, Calakmul, and Caracol) were more similar than usually assumed. This article is categorized under: Human Water > Water as Imagined and Represented Engineering Water > Planning Water Science of Water > Water Quality [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The Peruvian Altiplano is frequently threatened by weather extremes, including droughts, frosts, and heavy rainfall. Given the persistence of significant undernourishment despite regional development efforts, this paper attempts to analyse and explain food insecurity in the Puno region in terms of food availability and food sovereignty. The purpose was to estimate the per capita caloric nutritional coverage and to determine the percentage contribution of food groups to the caloric availability in different climate change situations (normal, flood, drought), based on the Food Balance Sheet developed by FAO. Official information mainly from the Dirección Regional Agraria de Puno was used. The analysis revealed that the productive potential for food security and sovereignty of the Puno region depends mostly on climatic behavior, which becomes very critical during the last years. The caloric nutritional coverage in the Puno region during a climatologically normal year, reaches only 60% of the theoretical caloric needs of one person per day, with a caloric deficit of 40%. Even more, a year with excessive rainfalls generates a food calories dependence of 60%, while a year of drought generates 87%. The food groups that contribute most to the caloric availability are tubers, cereals and red meats. However, the proportions of the supply vary substantially according to the particular behavior of rainfalls, either in a normal year, with excessive rainfalls and/or in a drought situation. Results revealed a deficit of 1,000 kcal per capita per day in the Puno region even during normal years (750 mm of water layer), which can be resolved in a great part doubling the regional production of potato and quinoa, achieving a nutritional coverage of 95% of the nutritional requirements. These results must be considered to implement public policies focused in redress the caloric imbalance and adaptation to climate change in the Puno region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest dieback caused by drought-induced tree mortality has been observed world-wide. Forecasting which trees in which locations are vulnerable to drought-induced mortality is important to predict the consequences of drought on forest structure, biodiversity and ecosystem function., In this paper, our central aim was to compile a synthesis of tree traits and associated abiotic variables that can be used to predict drought-induced mortality., We reviewed the literature that specifically links drought mortality to functional traits and site conditions (i.e. edaphic variables and biotic conditions), targeting studies that show clear use of tree traits in drought analysis. We separated the review into five climatic zones to determine global vs. regionally restricted relationships between traits and mortality., Our synthesis identifies a number of traits that have clear relationships with drought-induced mortality (e.g. wood density at the species level and tree size and growth at the individual level). However, the lack of direct relationships between most traits and drought-induced mortality highlights areas where future research should focus to broaden our understanding., Synthesis and applications. Our synthesis highlights established relationships between traits and drought-induced mortality, presents knowledge gaps for future research focus and suggests monitoring and research avenues for improving our understanding of drought-induced mortality. It is intended to assist ecologists and natural resource managers choose appropriate and measurable parameters for predicting local and regional scale tree mortality risk in different climatic zones within constraints of time and funding availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate extremes, such as severe drought, heat waves and periods of heavy rainfall, can have profound consequences for ecological systems and for human welfare. Global climate change is expected to increase both the frequency and the intensity of climate extremes and there is an urgent need to understand their ecological consequences. Major challenges for advancing our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate extremes include setting a climatic baseline to facilitate the statistical determination of when climate conditions are extreme, having sufficient knowledge of ecological systems so that extreme ecological responses can be identified, and finally, being able to attribute a climate extreme as the driver of an extreme ecological response, defined as an extreme climatic event (ECE). The papers in this issue represent a cross-section of the emerging field of climate extremes research, including an examination of the palaeo-ecological record to assess patterns and drivers of extreme ecological responses in the late Quaternary, experiments in grasslands assessing a range of ecological responses and the role of ecotypic variation in determining responses to climate extremes, and the quantification of the ecological consequences of a recent ECE in the desert Southwest of the USA. Synthesis. The papers in this Special Feature suggest that although the occurrence of ECEs may be common in palaeo-ecological and observational studies, studies in which climate extremes have been experimentally imposed often do not result in ecological responses outside the bounds of normal variability of a system. Thus, ECEs occur much less frequently than their potential drivers and even less frequently than observational studies suggest. Future research is needed to identify the types and time-scales of climate extremes that result in ECEs, the potential for interactions among different types of climate changes and extremes, and the role of genetic, species and trait diversity in determining ecological responses and their evolutionary consequences. These research priorities require the development of alternative research approaches to impose realistic climate extremes on a broad range of organisms and ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Securing sustainable livelihood conditions and reducing the risk of outmigration in savanna ecosystems hosted in the tropical semiarid regions is of fundamental importance for the future of humanity in general. Although precipitation in tropical drylands, or savannas, is generally more significant than one might expect, these regions are subject to considerable rainfall variability which causes frequent periods of water deficiency. This paper addresses the twin problems of “drought and desertification” from a water perspective, focusing on the soil moisture (green water) and plant water uptake deficiencies. It makes a clear distinction between long-term climate change, meteorological drought, and agricultural droughts and dry spells caused by rainfall variability and land degradation. It then formulates recommendations to better cope with and to build resilience to droughts and dry spells. Coping with desertification requires a new conceptual framework based on green-blue water resources to identify hydrological opportunities in a sea of constraints. This paper proposes an integrated land/water approach to desertification where ecosystem management supports agricultural development to build social-ecological resilience to droughts and dry spells. This approach is based on the premise that to combat desertification, focus should shift from reducing trends of land degradation in agricultural systems to water resource management in savannas and to landscape-wide ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of climate change characterized by rising temperature and more extreme precipitation regimes, drought is one of the most relevant natural disasters. This paper presents maps of global drought frequency, duration, and severity for the periods 1951-1970, 1971-1990, and 1991-2010, to give an overview of the respective drought hot spots. Drought frequency is defined as the number of drought events occurred, drought duration as the number of months in drought conditions, and drought severity as the sum of the integral area below zero of each event. Because drought is mainly driven by rainfall deficits, we chose the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as the base indicator to derive drought-related quantities. SPI-12 has been calculated on a monthly basis using a Gamma distribution fitted to a 60-year baseline period (1951-2010). Global grids (0.5° ×0.5°) of the Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0 dataset provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) have been used as precipitation data input. The regions most exposed to prolonged and severe droughts during 1951-1970 were the Central United States, the Argentinian Pampas, Russia, and Central Australia; during 1971-1990 they were Southern Chile, the Sahel, and Siberia; during 1991-2010 they were the Amazon Forest, the Congo River Basin, Mongolia, North Eastern China, and Borneo. A linear trend analysis between 1951 and 2010 shows a small global increase in each drought component, but drought frequency decreased in the Northern Hemisphere. The increase in drought frequency, duration, and severity is found to be significant in Africa, Eastern Asia, Mediterranean region, and Southern Australia, while the Americas and Russia show a decrease in each drought component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost-efficient in a development context. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost-effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the objective of quantifying turbulent heat fluxes in areas with various types of urban land use to improve living and environmental conditions through better urban planning, comparative energy balance measurements using the eddy-covariance (EC) technique were conducted in Oberhausen (Germany) between 15 August 2010 and 15 April 2011. The results of this paper show that the sensible heat flux ( QH) is 20% higher and that the latent heat flux ( QE) is 90% lower at an urban site (URB) compared to a suburban site (SUB). Green spaces in cities counteract the growing thermal stresses on city dwellers and therefore represent a possible urban climate mitigation measure. This positive effect may be reduced or lost entirely during long periods of drought. The Bowen ratio ( QH/ QE) increased from 0.65 to 2.8 with decreasing soil moisture at the SUB, and the monthly average QE value decreased from 94 W m−2 (August 2010, heavy precipitation) to only 47 W m−2 (March 2011, dry period), providing impressive evidence of this relationship. Considering the aspects of urban climate, the creation of urban green spaces can only be effective if an optimum water supply is provided. Furthermore, additional planning recommendations are given for urban planners within cities located at mid-latitudes, as derived from the measured results. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, aridity and drought have become crucial issues at the global scale because of their environmental and socio-economic implications. On the one hand, aridity causes a reduction in the biological and economic productivity of terrestrial ecosystems, and represents a serious threat to ecological, biogeochemical, and hydrological processes. On the other hand, human use (and abuse) of vulnerable dry land ecosystems may lead to unsustainable land management. Based on these considerations, this paper analyses the recent land cover changes observed in Latium (Italy) during the exceptionally dry period 2000-2007. More than 50% of the area investigated was classified as dry in 2004-2007 compared with 0% in 2000-2003. Moreover, climatic aridity impacted differently on semi-natural, agricultural, and built-up land. These findings illustrate a possible scenario for suburban Mediterranean regions: increasing aridity (mainly due to rising temperatures) mainly impacting on peri-urban land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim There remains some uncertainty concerning the causes of extinctions of Madagascar’s megafauna. One hypothesis is that they were caused by over-hunting by humans. A second hypothesis is that their extinction was caused by both environmental change and hunting. This paper systematically addresses the second hypothesis through examination of two new pollen records from south-eastern Madagascar alongside other published records across the island. Location South-eastern Madagascar. Methods We reconstructed past vegetation and fire dynamics over the past 6000 years at two sites in south-eastern Madagascar (Ste-Luce) using fossil pollen and charcoal contained in sedimentary sequences. We investigated drivers of vegetation changes and how these, in turn, influenced faunal species in the south-east, using published climatic, archaeological and faunal records. Further, we also used published records to provide a synthesis of environmental changes on the whole island. Results Vegetation reconstructions indicate that the mosaic vegetation in the region of Ste-Luce was highly dynamic in response to climatic changes. The open woodland, surrounding the littoral forest, transformed into an ericoid grassland between c. 5800 and 5200 cal. yr bp, possibly in response to a moderate drought recorded during this period. The littoral forest was more stable between c. 5100 and 1000 cal. yr bp, with only some minor compositional changes c. 2800 cal. yr bp and between c. 1900 and 1000 cal. yr bp. Significant forest decline, however, is observed at c. 950 cal. yr bp, coinciding with a drought and a marine surge. A comparison of these results with a synthesis of published vegetation records across the island shows asynchronous vegetation changes in response to various droughts during the Holocene, except for the 950 cal. yr bp drought event, with evidence of widespread vegetation transformations and fires across the island. Main conclusions Pronounced climatic desiccation between 1200 and 700 cal. yr bp may have been the slow driver framing and triggering vegetation transformations and decline in megafaunal populations. In addition, hunting by drought-impacted human inhabitants and competition with newly introduced cattle would have amplified the impacts on megafaunal populations, leading to numerous extinctions in this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is the major and most urgent global environmental issue. Australia is already experiencing climate change as evidenced by higher temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts. These impacts are compounded by increasing land use pressures on natural resources and native ecosystems. This paper provides a synthesis of the interactions, feedbacks and risks of natural climate variability, climate change and land use/land cover change (LUCC) impacting on the Australian continent and how they vary regionally. We review evidence of climate change and underlying processes resulting from interactions between global warming caused by increased concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases and modification of the land surface. The consequences of ignoring the effect of LUCC on current and future droughts in Australia could have catastrophic consequences for the nation's environment, economy and communities. We highlight the need for more integrated, long-term and adaptive policies and regional natural resource management strategies that restore the beneficial feedbacks between native vegetation cover and local-regional climate, to help ameliorate the impact of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper presents the results of 2 yr of CO2 flux measurements on grassland communities of varying species richness, exposed to either the current or a warmer climate. • We grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures, while the other half were warmed by 3°C. Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, implying drier soils if warming increased evapotranspiration. Three main CO2 fluxes (gross photosynthesis, above-ground and below-ground respiration) were measured multiple times per year and reconstructed hourly or half-hourly by relating them to their most important environmental driver. • While CO2 outputs through respiration were largely unchanged under warming, CO2 inputs through photosynthesis were lowered, especially in summer, when heat and drought stress were higher. Above-ground CO2 fluxes were significantly increased in multispecies communities, as more complementary resource use stimulated productivity. Finally, effects of warming appeared to be smallest in monocultures. • This study shows that in a future warmer climate the CO2 sink capacity of temperate grasslands could decline, and that such adverse effects are not likely to be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strong relationship between dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and sulphate (SO42−) dynamics under drought conditions has been revealed from analysis of a 10-year time series (1993–2002). Soil solution from a blanket peat at 10 cm depth and stream water were collected at biweekly and weekly intervals, respectively, by the Environmental Change Network at Moor House-Upper Teesdale National Nature Reserve in the North Pennine uplands of Britain. DOC concentrations in soil solution and stream water were closely coupled, displaying a strong seasonal cycle with lowest concentrations in early spring and highest in late summer/early autumn. Soil solution DOC correlated strongly with seasonal variations in soil temperature at the same depth 4-weeks prior to sampling. Deviation from this relationship was seen, however, in years with significant water table drawdown (>−25 cm), such that DOC concentrations were up to 60% lower than expected. Periods of drought also resulted in the release of SO42−, because of the oxidation of inorganic/organic sulphur stored in the peat, which was accompanied by a decrease in pH and increase in ionic strength. As both pH and ionic strength are known to control the solubility of DOC, inclusion of a function to account for DOC suppression because of drought-induced acidification accounted for more of the variability of DOC in soil solution ( R2=0.81) than temperature alone ( R2=0.58). This statistical model of peat soil solution DOC at 10 cm depth was extended to reproduce 74% of the variation in stream DOC over this period. Analysis of annual budgets showed that the soil was the main source of SO42− during droughts, while atmospheric deposition was the main source in other years. Mass balance calculations also showed that most of the DOC originated from the peat. The DOC flux was also lower in the drought years of 1994 and 1995, reflecting low DOC concentrations in soil and stream water. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that lower concentrations of DOC in both soil and stream waters during drought years can be explained in terms of drought-induced acidification. As future climate change scenarios suggest an increase in the magnitude and frequency of drought events, these results imply potential for a related increase in DOC suppression by episodic acidification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Changes in the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts, may be one of the most significant impacts of climate change for ecosystems. Models predict more frequent summer droughts in much of England: this paper investigates the impact on different types of plants in an ex-arable grassland community.2. A long-term experiment simulated increased and decreased summer precipitation. Substantial interannual variation allowed the effects of summer drought to be tested in combination with wet and dry weather in other seasons. This is important, as climate models predict increased winter precipitation.3. Total cover abundance in early summer increased with increasing water supply in the previous summer; there was no effect of winter precipitation. Productivity is therefore likely to decrease with more frequent summer droughts, with no mitigating effect of wetter winters.4. The percentage cover of perennial grasses declined during a natural drought in 1995–97; this was exacerbated by the experimental drought treatment and reduced by supplemented rainfall. Simultaneously, short-lived ruderal species increased; this was greatest in drought treatments and least with supplemented rainfall.5. These trends were subsequently reversed during several years of unusually wet weather, with perennial grasses increasing and short-lived forbs decreasing. This occurred even in experimentally droughted plots, and we propose that it resulted from rapid coverage of gaps during wet autumns and winters.6. Deep-rooted species generally proved to be more drought resistant, but there were exceptions.7. We conclude that increased frequency of summer droughts could have serious implications for the establishment and successional development of ex-arable grasslands. Increased winter precipitation would moderate the impact on species composition, but not on productivity.Functional Ecology(2004)18, 648–655 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Archaeological data and evidence of climatic change are used to suggest that the collapse of Uxmal and Chichén Itzá in the Northern Maya Lowlands was the result of long and recurrent drought episodes in the eleventh century. Although environmental evidence indicates that drought episodes might have begun in the ninth century, they gradually increased in frequency through the eleventh century and generated devastating effects on the late Terminal Classic period civilization. Evidence of recurrent drought episodes in the Northern lowlands is reported from the Holtún Cenote at Chichén Itzá. This cenote (sinkhole) shows two moments of the climatic change that affected Northern Yucatán. First, it corroborates the existence of extreme dry environmental conditions during the Terminal Classic period dated between the ninth and eleventh centuries. Second, after C.E. 1100, the water level rose inside the Holtún Cenote when environmental conditions turned wetter at the beginning of the Postclassic period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Hydrologically open lakes in temperate regions are not considered as sensitive to climate change as closed-basin lakes in semiarid regions. 2. Oak Mere is an acid lake in lowland UK. It has no surface inflow or outflow but is connected to the regional groundwater. It is a high landscape, hydrologically open lake. 3. This paper describes how Oak Mere responded to drought with rapid and substantial changes in acidity and nutrients. Decreases in pH and catchment-derived nutrients appear to be a response to the relative amount of catchment-derived minerals compared with those received in direct precipitation. 4. The extreme sensitivity of the site appears to be due to negligible groundwater inputs, low buffering capacity and a short retention time. 5. The paper demonstrates that high landscape sites may represent the most sensitive hydrologically open lakes to climate change. This not only has consequences for acidification and eutrophication studies. These sites may also be considered valuable in that they potentially offer an important new archive for palaeoclimate studies, with a sensitivity previously considered unavailable in low altitude temperate regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]