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Rising global temperatures are expected to increase reproductive costs for wildlife as greater thermoregulatory demands interfere with reproductive activities. However, predicting the temperatures at which reproductive performance is negatively impacted remains a significant hurdle. Using a thermoregulatory polygon approach, we derived a reproductive threshold temperature for an Arctic songbird—the snow bunting (Plectrophenax nivalis). We defined this threshold as the temperature at which individuals must reduce activity to suboptimal levels (i.e. less than four-time basal metabolic rate) to sustain nestling provisioning and avoid overheating. We then compared this threshold to operative temperatures recorded at high (82° N) and low (64° N) Arctic sites to estimate how heat constraints translate into site-specific impacts on sustained activity level. We predict buntings would become behaviourally constrained at operative temperatures above 11.7°C, whereupon they must reduce provisioning rates to avoid overheating. Low-Arctic sites had larger fluctuations in solar radiation, consistently producing daily periods when operative temperatures exceeded 11.7°C. However, high-latitude birds faced entire, consecutive days when parents would be unable to sustain required provisioning rates. These data indicate that Arctic warming is probably already disrupting the breeding performance of cold-specialist birds and suggests counterintuitive and severe negative impacts of warming at higher latitude breeding locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For birds, unpredictable environments during the energetically stressful times of moulting and breeding are expected to have negative fitness effects. Detecting those effects however, might be difficult if individuals modulate their physiology and/or behaviours in ways to minimize short-term fitness costs. Corticosterone in feathers (CORTf) is thought to provide information on total baseline and stress-induced CORT levels at moulting and is an integrated measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal activity during the time feathers are grown. We predicted that CORTf levels in northern common eider females would relate to subsequent body condition, reproductive success and survival, in a population of eiders nesting in the eastern Canadian Arctic during a capricious period marked by annual avian cholera outbreaks. We collected CORTf data from feathers grown during previous moult in autumn and data on phenology of subsequent reproduction and survival for 242 eider females over 5 years. Using path analyses, we detected a direct relationship between CORTf and arrival date and body condition the following year. CORTf also had negative indirect relationships with both eider reproductive success and survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak. This indirect effect was dramatic with a reduction of approximately 30% in subsequent survival of eiders during an avian cholera outbreak when mean CORTf increased by 1 standard deviation. This study highlights the importance of events or processes occurring during moult on subsequent expression of life-history traits and relation to individual fitness, and shows that information from non-destructive sampling of individuals can track carry-over effects across seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]