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This article offers four key lessons learned from a set of seven studies undertaken as part of the collection entitled, "Improving Maternal Health Measurement to Support Efforts toward Ending Preventable Maternal Mortality". These papers were aimed at validating ten of the Ending Preventable Maternal Mortality initiative indicators that capture information on distal causes of maternal mortality. These ten indicators were selected through an inclusive consultative process, and the research designs adhere to global recommendations on conducting indicator validation studies. The findings of these papers are timely and relevant given growing recognition of the role of macro-level social, political, and economic factors in maternal and newborn survival. The four key lessons include: 1) Strengthen efforts to capture maternal and newborn health policies to enable global progress assessments while reducing multiple requests to countries for similar data; 2) Monitor indicator "bundles" to understand degree of policy implementation, inconsistencies between laws and practices, and responsiveness of policies to individual and community needs; 3) Promote regular monitoring of a holistic set of human resource metrics to understand how to effectively strengthen the maternal and newborn health workforce; and 4) Develop and disseminate clear guidance for countries on how to assess health system as well as broader social and political determinants of maternal and newborn health. These lessons are consistent with the Kirkland principles of focus, relevance, innovation, equity, global leadership, and country ownership. They stress the value of indicator sets to understand complex phenomenon related to maternal and newborn health, including small groupings of complementary indicators for measuring policy implementation and health workforce issues. They also stress the fundamental ethos that maternal and newborn health indicators should only be tracked if they can drive actions at global, regional, national, or sub-national levels that improve lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using publicly available data, this paper investigates the diffusion of COVID-19 across neighborhoods in two major cities, London and New York. We link neighborhood demographics to incidence, and we investigate patterns of change over time in conjunction with changing policy responses to the pandemic. By comparing and contrasting these two cities, we are able to exploit surveillance and policy differences, demonstrating how each contributes information to the other. We conclude that better coordination can be translated into improved health policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), dengue is the most common acute arthropod-borne viral infection in the world. The spread of dengue and other infectious diseases is closely related to human activity and mobility. In this paper we analyze the effect of introducing mobility restrictions as a public health policy on the total number of dengue cases within a population. To perform the analysis, we use a complex metapopulation in which we implement a compartmental propagation model coupled with the mobility of individuals between the patches. This model is used to investigate the spread of dengue in the municipalities of Caldas (CO). Two scenarios corresponding to different types of mobility restrictions are applied. In the first scenario, the effect of restricting mobility is analyzed in three different ways: a) limiting the access to the endemic node but allowing the movement of its inhabitants, b) restricting the diaspora of the inhabitants of the endemic node but allowing the access of outsiders, and c) a total isolation of the inhabitants of the endemic node. In this scenario, the best simulation results are obtained when specific endemic nodes are isolated during a dengue outbreak, obtaining a reduction of up to 2.5% of dengue cases. Finally, the second scenario simulates a total isolation of the network, i.e., mobility between nodes is completely limited. We have found that this control measure increases the number of total dengue cases in the network by 2.36%. Author summary: For the World Health Organization, dengue is a disease of public health concern. In recent years there is an increasing trend in the number of dengue cases despite existing prevention and control campaigns. The mobility of the population is considered an important factor in dengue dispersion. In this paper, we are interested in addressing how restrictions to human mobility might affect the incidence of dengue in a region. Our research is relevant because the model can be adapted to other regions or scales, and the mobility control measures can be taken into account for the development of public health policies in endemic regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe a method that uses crowdsourced postcode coordinates and Google maps to estimate average distance and travel time for inhabitants of a municipality to a casualty clinic in Norway. The new method was compared with methods based on population centroids, median distance and town hall location, and we used it to examine how distance affects the utilisation of out-of-hours primary care services. At short distances our method showed good correlation with mean travel time and distance. The utilisation of out-of-hours services correlated with postcode based distances similar to previous research. The results show that our method is a reliable and useful tool for estimating average travel distances and travel times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Obesity is a global epidemic affecting all age groups, populations, and income levels across continents, though is known to disproportionately affect socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. The causes of obesity are complex, informed by diet and weight practices, but shaped by social, commercial, and environmental factors and government policy. Consequently, a Whole System Approach (WSA)–which considers the many causes of obesity and shifts the focus away from individuals as points of intervention and puts an emphasis on understanding and improving the system in which people live–is required. This scoping review of reviews aims to: determine how WSAs to diet and healthy weight have been implemented and evaluated nationally and internationally; to determine what models or theories have been used to implement WSAs; describe how WSAs have been evaluated; determine if WSAs are effective; and to identify the contribution of the public and/or service users in the development of WSAs. Method: Systematic searches were carried out using CINAHL, Scopus, PsycINFO (ProQuest), the Cochrane Library, and MEDLINE. Included review papers were those that focused on the application of a whole system approach to diet and/or healthy weight, and/or reported the theory/model used to implement or simulate this approach. Databases were searched from 1995 to March 2022 using a combination of text and Medical Subject Headings (MeSH terms). In addition, reference sections of identified articles were examined for additional relevant articles. Covidence software was used to screen titles and abstracts from the electronic databases and resolve conflicts. Results: A total of 20,308 articles were initially retrieved; after duplicate removal 7,690 unique title and abstracts were reviewed, and 110 articles were selected for full text review. On completion of full text review, 8 review articles were included for data extraction. These included: one umbrella review, four systematic reviews, a rapid review, and two literature reviews (one of which was on strategic reports written for government and public health policy). Evaluations of WSA were mainly process evaluations although health outcomes were assessed in some studies. Several conceptual frameworks or mathematical modelling approaches have been applied to WSAs for diet, healthy weight, and obesity to inform their planning or delivery, and to understand/map the associated systems. Common mathematical approaches include agent based or System Dynamic Modelling. Underlying both conceptual and mathematical models is an understanding how the elements of the complex systems impact each other to affect diet, healthy weight, and obesity. WSA implementations have reported some success in positively impacting health outcomes including reducing Body Mass Index, reducing sugary food intake, and increasing physical activity. Public and user involvement in WSA was not widely reported. Conclusion: The application of WSA to diet and healthy weight shows promise, yet the research is lagging behind their implementation. Further robust evidence for using WSA to address diet and healthy weight are required, including incorporating process and outcome evaluations (perhaps using established approaches such as Systems Dynamic Modelling). Furthermore, the analysis of epidemiological data alongside longitudinal process and outcome evaluation regarding the implementation of a WSA is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the influence of development strategies with regard to national fitness and health in China, the interactive development between national fitness and national health is becoming increasingly strong. To explore the coupling and coordination relationship between national fitness and national health, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the coupling and coordination relationship between national fitness and national health in 11 provinces and cities in Eastern China using the entropy weight method, a coupling coordination model, spatial visualization of the coupling coordination degree and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The research confirms that the comprehensive development level of national fitness and national health in Eastern China shows a steady upward trend, with a lag in national fitness as a whole, and that the growth rate of national fitness development is faster than that of national health development. The coupling coordination degree of the two systems of national fitness and national health in Eastern China shows a slow upward trend, and the coupling coordination degree rises from barely coordinated to primary coordination. There are significant differences in the spatial pattern of coupling coordination: the spatial pattern from north to south generally shows 'low-high-high-low-high-low' characteristics, and the spatial spillover effect of coupling coordination in various regions has not yet appeared. The revised GM(1.1) prediction results indicate that the level and improvement rate of coupling coordination will accelerate significantly in the next 10 years, but the spatial differences will still exist. Finally, suggestions are proposed to optimize the coupling and coordinated development of national fitness and national health based on policy guarantees as well as strengthening and cross-regional cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Lebanon has battled the COVID-19 pandemic in the midst of an economic crisis. The evolution of the pandemic and a fragile health system have meant that public health policy has had to rely heavily on non-pharmaceutical interventions for disease control. However, changes in disease dynamics, an unraveling economy, and pandemic fatigue have meant that disease control policies need to be updated. Methods: Using recent and timely data on older (50 years and above) Syrian refugees in Lebanon, this paper uses multivariate linear probability models to explore the determinants of adherence to two non-pharmaceutical COVID-19 prevention measures (wearing a mask and avoiding social gatherings) among this high-risk subgroup in a vulnerable population. Among respondents who report adhering to these measures, the paper also investigates the determinants of sustained adherence over a period of 6 months. Results: The findings suggest that no individual-level characteristics were robustly associated with mask wearing. For avoiding social gatherings, education was inversely associated with adherence to this preventive measure. Avoiding social gatherings was also significantly lower for residents of informal tented settlements (ITSs). Among initial adherents, and for both preventive practices, ITS dwellers were also significantly less likely to maintain adherence. Conclusion: Identifying variables associated with adherence to non-pharmaceutical preventive practices, particularly for vulnerable groups, can help inform and refine interventions in the face of changing conditions. The material, physical, administrative and socio-economic constraints of life in an ITS suggest that avoiding social gatherings is hardly feasible. Yet despite the challenging conditions of ITSs, the indication to wear a mask is initially complied with, suggesting that tailoring policies to the limits and constrains of context can lead to successful outcomes even in very adverse settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wealth-health relationship is not unambiguous and constant. Greater wealth affects individual and population health in opposite ways. Increased risk factors especially raise the probability of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) impacting a population. Conversely, better healthcare and awareness reduce the chances of developing these diseases or increase the likelihood of treatment and cure. Therefore, this paper aims to assess and quantify the hard-to-grasp overall impact of prosperity on mortality from selected NCDs, allowing us to capture the relevant differences between European regions. In particular, we attempt to estimate the net effect of affluence and the health economic threshold of the GDP-mortality relationship, by developing a dedicated analytical tool based on joinpoint regression and forecasting methods. Our results show that in the case of most investigated diseases in more impoverished regions, a clear pattern reflects mortality rising with prosperity. After crossing the health economic threshold of around 20 thousand euros per capita, the trend changes by stabilising or reversing. The research we present shows that health policy should be more diversified locally to enable health convergence at the national and European regional levels. Moreover, health policy should evolve to prioritise mental and neurological disorders, by improving the resource allocation and increasing public awareness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Testing remains a key tool for managing health care and making health policy during the coronavirus pandemic, and it will probably be important in future pandemics. Because of false negative and false positive tests, the observed fraction of positive tests—the surface positivity—is generally different from the fraction of infected individuals (the incidence rate of the disease). In this paper a previous method for translating surface positivity to a point estimate for incidence rate, then to an appropriate range of values for the incidence rate consistent with the model and data (the test range), and finally to the risk (the probability of including one infected individual) associated with groups of different sizes is illustrated. The method is then extended to include asymptomatic infections. To do so, the process of testing is modeled using both analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Doing so shows that it is possible to determine point estimates for the fraction of infected and symptomatic individuals, the fraction of uninfected and symptomatic individuals, and the ratio of infected asymptomatic individuals to infected symptomatic individuals. Inclusion of symptom status generalizes the test range from an interval to a region in the plane determined by the incidence rate and the ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infections; likelihood methods can be used to determine the contour of the rest region. Points on this contour can be used to compute the risk (defined as the probability of including one asymptomatic infected individual) in groups of different sizes. These results have operational implications that include: positivity rate is not incidence rate; symptom status at testing can provide valuable information about asymptomatic infections; collecting information on time since putative virus exposure at testing is valuable for determining point estimates and test ranges; risk is a graded (rather than binary) function of group size; and because the information provided by testing becomes more accurate with more tests but at a decreasing rate, it is possible to over-test fixed spatial regions. The paper concludes with limitations of the method and directions for future work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The validity of scientific findings may be challenged by the replicability crisis (or cases of fraud), which may result not only in a loss of trust within society but may also lead to wrong or even harmful policy or medical decisions. The question is: how reliable are scientific results that are reported as statistically significant, and how does this reliability develop over time? Based on 35,515 papers in psychology published between 1975 and 2017 containing 487,996 test values, this article empirically examines the statistical power, publication bias, and p-hacking, as well as the false discovery rate. Assuming constant true effects, the statistical power was found to be lower than the suggested 80% except for large underlying true effects (d = 0.8) and increased only slightly over time. Also, publication bias and p-hacking were found to be substantial. The share of false discoveries among all significant results was estimated at 17.7%, assuming a proportion θ = 50% of all hypotheses being true and assuming that p-hacking is the only mechanism generating a higher proportion of just significant results compared to just nonsignificant results. As the analyses rely on multiple assumptions that cannot be tested, alternative scenarios were laid out, again resulting in the rather optimistic result that although research results may suffer from low statistical power and publication selection bias, most of the results reported as statistically significant may contain substantial results, rather than statistical artifacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) continuing to increase globally, no comprehensive meta-analyses have been conducted quantifying premature CVD mortality. This paper reports the protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis to derive updated estimates of premature CVD mortality. Methods and expected outputs: This review will include the studies that reported premature CVD mortality based on standard premature mortality indicators, including years of life lost (YLL), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) or standardised mortality ratio (SMR). PUBMED, Scopus, Web of Science (WoS), CINAHL, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) will be used as the literature databases. The study selection as well as the evaluation of the quality of the included articles will be done independently by two reviewers. Pooled estimates of YLL, ASMR, and SMR will be computed by applying random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity among selected studies will be assessed using the I2 statistic and Q statistic with associated p-values. A funnel plot analysis and Egger's test will be conducted to assess the potential impact of publication bias. Depending on data availability, we propose to conduct subgroup analyses by sex, geographic location, main CVD types, and study time. Reporting of our findings will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Conclusion: Our meta-analysis will provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available evidence on premature CVD mortality, which is a major public health concern worldwide. The results of this meta-analysis will have important implications for clinical practice and public health policy, providing insights into strategies to prevent and manage premature CVD mortality. Trial registration: Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD42021288415. https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021288415. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic required significant public health interventions from local governments. Although nonpharmaceutical interventions often were implemented as decision rules, few studies evaluated the robustness of those reopening plans under a wide range of uncertainties. This paper uses the Robust Decision Making approach to stress-test 78 alternative reopening strategies, using California as an example. This study uniquely considers a wide range of uncertainties and demonstrates that seemingly sensible reopening plans can lead to both unnecessary COVID-19 deaths and days of interventions. We find that plans using fixed COVID-19 case thresholds might be less effective than strategies with time-varying reopening thresholds. While we use California as an example, our results are particularly relevant for jurisdictions where vaccination roll-out has been slower. The approach used in this paper could also prove useful for other public health policy problems in which policymakers need to make robust decisions in the face of deep uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 epidemic is the most significant global health disaster of this century and the greatest challenge to humanity since World War II. One of the most important research issues is to determine the effectiveness of measures implemented worldwide to control the spread of the corona virus. A dynamic simulated Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was adopted to analyze the policy response to COVID-19 in the ASEAN region using data from February 1, 2020, to November 8, 2021. The results of unit root concluded that the dependent variable is integrated of order one while the independent variables are stationarized at the level or first difference, and the use of a dynamic simulated ARDL technique is appropriate for this paper. The outcomes of the dynamic simulated ARDL model explored that government economic support and debt/contract relief for poor families is substantially important in the fight against COVID-19. The study also explored that closing schools and workplaces, restrictions on gatherings, cancellation of public events, stay at home, closing public transport, restrictions on domestic and international travel are necessary to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Finally, this study explored that public awareness campaigns, testing policy and social distancing significantly decrease the spread of COVID-19. Policy implications such as economic support from the government to help poor families, closing schools and public gatherings during the pandemic, public awareness among the masses, and testing policies must be adopted to reduce the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, the reduction in mortality shows that immunization could be a possible new strategy to combat COVID-19, but the factors responsible for the acceptability of the vaccine must be addressed immediately through public health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Socioeconomic factors have exacerbated the impact of COVID–19 worldwide. Brazil, already marked by significant economic inequalities, is one of the most affected countries, with one of the highest mortality rates. Understanding how inequality and income segregation contribute to excess mortality by COVID–19 in Brazilian cities is essential for designing public health policies to mitigate the impact of the disease. This paper aims to fill in this gap by analyzing the effect of income inequality and income segregation on COVID–19 mortality in large urban centers in Brazil. We compiled weekly COVID–19 mortality rates from March 2020 to February 2021 in a longitudinal ecological design, aggregating data at the city level for 152 Brazilian cities. Mortality rates from COVID-19 were compared across weeks, cities and states using mixed linear models. We estimated the associations between COVID-19 mortality rates with income inequality and income segregation using mixed negative binomial models including city and week-level random intercepts. We measured income inequality using the Gini index and income segregation using the dissimilarity index using data from the 2010 Brazilian demographic census. We found that 88.2% of COVID–19 mortality rates variability was between weeks, 8.5% between cities, and 3.3% between states. Higher-income inequality and higher-income segregation values were associated with higher COVID–19 mortality rates before and after accounting for all adjustment factors. In our main adjusted model, rate ratios (RR) per 1 SD increases in income inequality and income segregation were associated with 17% (95% CI 9% to 26%) and 11% (95% CI 4% to 19%) higher mortality. Income inequality and income segregation are long-standing hallmarks of large Brazilian cities. Risk factors related to the socioeconomic context affected the course of the pandemic in the country and contributed to high mortality rates. Pre-existing social vulnerabilities were critical factors in the aggravation of COVID–19, as supported by the observed associations in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ethiopia has low malaria prevalence compared to most other malaria-endemic countries in Africa. However, malaria is still a major public health problem in the country. The binary logistic regression model has been widely used to analyse malaria indicator survey (MIS) data. However, most MIS have a hierarchical structure which may result in dependent data. Since this model assumes that conditional on the covariates the malaria statuses of individuals are independent, it ignores potential intra-cluster correlation among observations within a cluster and may generate biased analysis results and conclusions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to quantify the variation in the prevalence of malaria between sample enumeration areas (SEAs) or clusters, the effects of cluster characteristics on the prevalence of malaria using the intra-class correlation coefficient as well as to identify significant factors that affect the prevalence of malaria using the multilevel logistic regression modelling in three major regions of Ethiopia, namely Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' (SNNP). Methods: Dataset for three regional states extracted from the 2011 Ethiopian National Malaria Indicator Surveys (EMIS) national representative samples was used in this study. It contains 9272 sample individuals selected from these regions. Various multilevel models with random sample SEA effects were applied taking into account the survey design weights. These weights are scaled to address unequal probabilities of selection within clusters. The spatial clustering of malaria prevalence was assessed applying Getis-Ord statistic to best linear unbiased prediction values of model random effects. Results: About 53.82 and 28.72 per cents of the sampled households in the study regions had no mosquito net and sprayed at least once within the last 12 months, respectively. The results of this study indicate that age, gender, household had mosquito nets, the dwelling has windows, source of drinking water, the two SEA-level variables, i.e. region and median altitude, were significantly related to the prevalence of malaria. After adjusting for these seven variables, about 45% of the residual variation in the prevalence of malaria in the study regions was due to systematic differences between SEAs, while the remaining 55% was due to unmeasured differences between persons or households. The estimated MOR, i.e. the unexplained SEA heterogeneity, was 4.784. This result suggests that there is high variation between SEAs in the prevalence of malaria. In addition, the 80% interval odds ratios (IORs) related to SEA-level variables contain one suggesting that the SEA variability is large in comparison with the effect of each of the variable. Conclusions: The multilevel logistic regression with random effects model used in this paper identified five individual / household and two SEA-level risk factors of malaria infection. Therefore, the public health policy makers should pay attentions to those significant factors, such as improving the availability of pure drinking water. Further, the findings of spatial clustering provide information to health policymakers to plan geographically targeted interventions to control malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One strategy for the prevention and treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is the implementation of the front-of-pack labeling (FoPL) in foods and beverages. In 2020, Mexico adopted the warning label system (WL) as a new public health policy, whose aim is to help consumers make healthier food choices. Previously, the Guideline Daily Amount (GDA) was the labelling used it. This paper aims to compare the understanding of two FoPL, the GDA and the WL, through the identification of unhealthy products in Mexicans with NCDs. We analyzed data from 14,880 Mexican adults older than 20 years old with NCDs (overweight-obesity (OW/O), self-reported diabetes mellitus 2 (DM2), or/and hypertension (HT), or/and dyslipidemia (Dys)). Participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups: the GDA labeling or WL. Each group had to respond to a survey and had to classify food products images as healthy or unhealthy according to the labelling system to which they were assigned. The correct classification was determined according to the criteria of Chile's labeling nutrient profile stage 3. To evaluate the correct classification in each one of the groups we evaluated the differences in proportions. Logistic regression models were used to assess the likelihood to correctly classify the product according to participants' number of diseases and WL information, taking GDA label as a reference. Participants who used the information contained in the GDA label misclassified food product labels in greater proportion (70%), mostly participants with three or more NCDs (participants with OW/O+ HT+ Dys, represent 42.3% of this group); compared with those who used WL (50%). The odds of correct classification of food products using WL image were two times greater compared to GDA image in participants with NCDs; being greater in participants with three or more NCDs. The study results highlight the usefulness of WL as it helps Mexicans with NCDs to classify unhealthy food products more adequately compared with GDA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Despite the rising risk factor exposure and non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality across the Middle East and the North African (MENA) region, public health policy responses have been slow and appear discordant with the social, economic and political circumstances in each country. Good health policy and outcomes are intimately linked to a research-active culture, particularly in NCD. In this study we present the results of a comprehensive analysis of NCD research with particular a focus on cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular disease in 10 key countries that represent a spectrum across MENA between 1991 and 2018. Methods: The study uses a well validated bibliometric approach to undertake a quantitative analysis of research output in the ten leading countries in biomedical research in the MENA region on the basis of articles and reviews in the Web of Science database. We used filters for each of the three NCDs and biomedical research to identify relevant papers in the WoS. The countries selected for the analyses were based on the volume of research outputs during the period of analysis and stability, included Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Results: A total of 495,108 biomedical papers were found in 12,341 journals for the ten MENA countries (here we consider Turkey in the context of MENA). For all three NCDs, Turkey's output is consistently the highest. Iran has had considerable growth in research output to occupy second place across all three NCDs. It appears that, relative to their wealth (measured by GDP), some MENA countries, particularly Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, are substantially under-investing in biomedical research. In terms of investment on particular NCDs, we note the relatively greater commitment on cancer research compared with diabetes or cardiovascular disease in most MENA countries, despite cardiovascular disease causing the greatest health-related burden. When considering the citation impact of research outputs, there have been marked rises in citation scores in Qatar, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates and Oman. However, Turkey, which has the largest biomedical research output in the Middle East has the lowest citation scores overall. The level of intra-regional collaboration in NCD research is highly variable. Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the dominant research collaborators across the MENA region. However, Turkey and Iran, which are amongst the leading research-active countries in the area, show little evidence of collaboration. With respect to international collaboration, the United States and United Kingdom are the dominant research partners across the region followed by Germany and France. Conclusion: The increase in research activity in NCDs across the MENA region countries during the time period of analysis may signal both an increasing focus on NCDs which reflects general global trends, and greater investment in research in some countries. However, there are several risks to the sustainability of these improvements that have been identified in particular countries within the region. For example, a lack of suitably trained researchers, low political commitment and poor financial support, and minimal international collaboration which is essential for wider global impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Dengue (DENV), Ross River (RRV) and Barmah Forest viruses (BFV) are the most common human arboviral infections in Australia and the Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) and are associated with debilitating symptoms. All are nationally notifiable in Australia, but routine surveillance is limited to a few locations in the PICTs. Understanding the level of human exposure to these viruses can inform disease management and mitigation strategies. To assess the historic and current seroprevalence of DENV, RRV and BFV in Australia and the PICTs we conducted a systematic literature review of all published quantitative serosurveys. Methodology and principal findings: The Preferred Reporting of Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses procedures were adopted to produce a protocol to systematically search for published studies reporting the seroprevalence of DENV, RRV and BFV in Australia and the PICTs. Data for author, research year, location, study population, serosurvey methods and positive tests were extracted. A total of 41 papers, reporting 78 serosurveys of DENV, RRV and BFV including 62,327 samples met the inclusion criteria for this review. Seroprevalence varied depending on the assay used, strategy of sample collection and location of the study population. Significant differences were observed in reported seropositivity depending on the sample collection strategy with clinically targeted sampling reporting the highest seroprevalence across all three viruses. Non-stratified seroprevalence showed wide ranges in reported positivity with DENV 0.0% -95.6%, RRV 0.0%-100.0%, and BFV 0.3% to 12.5%. We discuss some of the causes of variation including serological methods used, selection bias in sample collection including clinical or environmental associations, and location of study site. We consider the extent to which serosurveys reflect the epidemiology of the viruses and provide broad recommendations regarding the conduct and reporting of arbovirus serosurveys. Conclusions and significance: Human serosurveys provide important information on the extent of human exposure to arboviruses across: (1) time, (2) place, and (3) person (e.g., age, gender, clinical presentation etc). Interpreting results obtained at these scales has the potential to inform us about transmission cycles, improve diagnostic surveillance, and mitigate future outbreaks. Future research should streamline methods and reduce bias to allow a better understanding of the burden of these diseases and the factors associated with seroprevalence. Greater consideration should be given to the interpretation of seroprevalence in studies, and increased rigour applied in linking seroprevalence to transmission dynamics. Author summary: Mosquito-borne viruses contribute significantly to the global burden of diseases. Understanding infection rates in human populations is important for informing management of disease burden and public health policy. Serosurveys measure population exposure and immunity after arbovirus infections. We systematically reviewed serosurveys conducted for dengue virus (DENV), Ross River virus (RRV), and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) in Australia and the PICTs. We identified 41 studies reporting 78 serosurveys published between 1966 and 2020. For DENV we found the highest seroprevalence, greater than 95.0%, was reported in American Samoa. For RRV we found early evidence (1960–1969) of circulation outside Australia. There were three studies of BFV reporting 16 serosurveys within Australia and reporting low seroprevalence (<13%). Researchers used different serological methods so study comparisons must be nuanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the global burden of enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) and Shigella diarrhea as well as estimating the cost effectiveness of vaccines to control these two significant pathogens have been hindered by the lack of a diagnostic test that is rapid, simple, sensitive, and can be applied to the endemic countries. We previously developed a simple and rapid assay, Rapid Loop mediated isothermal amplification based Diagnostic Test (RLDT) for the detection of ETEC and Shigella spp. (Shigella). In this study, the RLDT assay was evaluated in comparison with quantitative PCR (qPCR), culture and conventional PCR for the detection of ETEC and Shigella. This validation was performed using previously collected stool samples from endemic countries, from the travelers to the endemic countries, as well as samples from a controlled human infection model study of ETEC. The performance of RLDT from dried stool spots was also validated. RLDT resulted in excellent sensitivity and specificity compared to qPCR (99% and 99.2% respectively) ranging from 92.3 to 100% for the individual toxin genes of ETEC and 100% for Shigella. Culture was less sensitive compared to RLDT. No significant differences were noted in the performance of RLDT using samples from various sources or stool samples from moderate to severe diarrhea or asymptomatic infections. RLDT performed equally well in detection of ETEC and Shigella from the dried stool samples on filter papers. This study established that RLDT is sufficiently sensitive and specific to be used as a simple and rapid diagnostic assay to detect ETEC and Shigella in endemic countries to determine disease burden of these pathogens in the national and subnational levels. This information will be important to guide public health and policy makers to prioritize resources for accelerating the development and introduction of effective preventative and/or treatment interventions against these enteric infections. Author summary: Enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) and Shigella spp (Shigella) causes significant global morbidity and mortality, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Since culture methods to detect Shigella are not sensitive, and the methods used to detect ETEC have not been feasible outside of specialized, well-equipped laboratories, the true burden of these pathogens at national and sub-national levels are mostly not available. Morbidity and mortality estimates, for these two pathogens are crucial to assess their relative public health importance in LMICs. We developed a simple and rapid diagnostic assay called the RLDT (Rapid Loop-mediated isothermal amplification based Diagnostic Test) for detection of ETEC and Shigella. In this study we evaluated RLDT compared to other currently available assays using previously collected stool samples. Our data showed that the RLDT assay exhibited high sensitivity and specificity for detection of ETEC and Shigella, with its result available within 50 minutes. The sensitivity of RLDT was higher than culture for these pathogens. We conclude that RLDT could be used as a rapid and simple diagnostic test to determine the burden of ETEC and Shigella in LMICs as well as in clinical vaccine trials of these pathogens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When it comes to visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Brazil, one of the main targets of public health policies of surveillance is the control of domestic canine reservoirs of Leishmania infantum. This paper aims to evaluate the effect of the dog population and household environment for the maintenance of natural foci in the transmission to human and animal hosts in an endemic city for VL, Bauru, in Brazil. We collected 6,578 blood samples of dogs living in 3,916 households from Nov.2019 to Mar.2020 and applied geospatial models to predict the disease risk based on the canine population. We used Kernel density estimation, cluster analysis, geostatistics, and Generalized Additive Models (GAM). To validate our models, we used cross-validation and created a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We found an overall canine VL (CVL) seroprevalence of 5.6% for the sampled dogs, while for the households, the positivity rate was 8.7%. Odds ratios (OR) for CVL increased progressively according to the number of canines for >2 dogs (OR 2.70); households that already had CVL in the past increased the chances for CVL currently (OR 2.73); and the cases of CVL increase the chances for human VL cases (OR 1.16). Our models were statistically significant and demonstrated a spatial association between canine and human disease cases, mainly in VL foci that remain endemic. Although the Kernel density ratio map had the best performance (AUC = 82), all the models showed high risk in the city's northwest area. Canine population dynamics must be considered in public policies, and geospatial methods may help target priority areas and planning VL surveillance in low and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of COVID-19 and resulting local and national lockdowns have a host of potential consequences for demographic trends. While impacts on mortality and, to some extent, short-term migration flows are beginning to be documented, it is too early to measure actual consequences for family demography. To gain insight into potential future consequences of the lockdown for family demography, we use cross-national Google Trends search data to explore whether trends in searches for words related to fertility, relationship formation, and relationship dissolution changed following lockdowns compared to average, pre-lockdown levels in Europe and the United States. Because lockdowns were not widely anticipated or simultaneous in timing or intensity, we exploit variability over time and between countries (and U.S. states). We use a panel event-study design and difference-in-differences methods, and account for seasonal trends and average country-level (or state-level) differences in searches. We find statistically significant impacts of lockdown timing on changes in searches for terms such as wedding and those related to condom use, emergency contraception, pregnancy tests, and abortion, but little evidence of changes in searches related to fertility. Impacts for union formation and dissolution tended to only be statistically significant at the start of a lockdown with a return to average-levels about 2 to 3 months after lockdown initiation, particularly in Europe. Compared to Europe, returns to average search levels were less evident for the U.S., even 2 to 3 months after lockdowns were introduced. This may be due to the fact, in the U.S., health and social policy responses were less demarcated than in Europe, such that economic uncertainty was likely of larger magnitude. Such pandemic-related economic uncertainty may therefore have the potential to slightly increase already existing polarization in family formation behaviours in the U.S. Alongside contributing to the wider literature on economic uncertainty and family behaviors, this paper also proposes strategies for efficient use of Google Trends data, such as making relative comparisons and testing sensitivity to outliers, and provides a template and cautions for their use in demographic research when actual demographic trends data are not yet available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: In response to political and social factors over the last sixty years mental health systems internationally have endeavoured to transfer the delivery of care from hospitals into community settings. As a result, there has been increased emphasis on the need for better quality care planning and care coordination between hospital services, community services and patients and their informal carers. The aim of this systematic review of international research is to explore which interventions have proved more or less effective in promoting personalized, recovery oriented care planning and coordination for community mental health service users. Methods: A systematic meta-narrative review of research from 1990 to the present was undertaken. From an initial return of 3940 papers a total of 50 research articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria, including research from the UK, Australia and the USA. Findings: Three research traditions are identified consisting of (a) research that evaluates the effects of government policies on the organization, management and delivery of services; (b) evaluations of attempts to improve organizational and service delivery efficiency; (c) service-users and carers experiences of community mental health care coordination and planning and their involvement in research. The review found no seminal papers in terms of high citation rates, or papers that were consistently cited over time. The traditions of research in this topic area have formed reactively in response to frequent and often unpredictable policy changes, rather than proactively as a result of intrinsic academic or intellectual activity. This may explain the absence of seminal literature within the subject field. As a result, the research tradition within this specific area of mental health service delivery has a relatively short history, with no one dominant researcher or researchers, tradition or seminal studies amongst or across the three traditions identified. Conclusions: The research findings reviewed suggests a gap has existed internationally over several decades between policy aspirations and service level interventions aimed at improving personalised care planning and coordination and the realities of everyday practices and experiences of service users and carers. Substantial barriers to involvement are created through poor information exchange and insufficient opportunities for care negotiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In practical research, it was found that most people made health-related decisions not based on numerical data but on perceptions. Examples include the perceptions and their corresponding linguistic values of health risks such as, smoking, syringe sharing, eating energy-dense food, drinking sugar-sweetened beverages etc. For the sake of understanding the mechanisms that affect the implementations of health-related interventions, we employ fuzzy variables to quantify linguistic variable in healthcare modeling where we employ an integrated system dynamics and agent-based model. Methodology: In a nonlinear causal-driven simulation environment driven by feedback loops, we mathematically demonstrate how interventions at an aggregate level affect the dynamics of linguistic variables that are captured by fuzzy agents and how interactions among fuzzy agents, at the same time, affect the formation of different clusters(groups) that are targeted by specific interventions. Results: In this paper, we provide an innovative framework to capture multi-stage fuzzy uncertainties manifested among interacting heterogeneous agents (individuals) and intervention decisions that affect homogeneous agents (groups of individuals) in a hybrid model that combines an agent-based simulation model (ABM) and a system dynamics models (SDM). Having built the platform to incorporate high-dimension data in a hybrid ABM/SDM model, this paper demonstrates how one can obtain the state variable behaviors in the SDM and the corresponding values of linguistic variables in the ABM. Conclusions: This research provides a way to incorporate high-dimension data in a hybrid ABM/SDM model. This research not only enriches the application of fuzzy set theory by capturing the dynamics of variables associated with interacting fuzzy agents that lead to aggregate behaviors but also informs implementation research by enabling the incorporation of linguistic variables at both individual and institutional levels, which makes unstructured linguistic data meaningful and quantifiable in a simulation environment. This research can help practitioners and decision makers to gain better understanding on the dynamics and complexities of precision intervention in healthcare. It can aid the improvement of the optimal allocation of resources for targeted group (s) and the achievement of maximum utility. As this technology becomes more mature, one can design policy flight simulators by which policy/intervention designers can test a variety of assumptions when they evaluate different alternatives interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The U.S. federal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is often considered the most effective antipoverty program for families in the U.S., leading to a variety of improved outcomes such as educational attainment, work incentives, economic activity, income, and health benefits for mothers, infants and children. State EITC supplements to the federal credit can significantly enhance the magnitude of this intervention. In this paper we advance EITC and health research by: 1) describing the diffusion of state EITC policies over 40 years, 2) presenting patterns in important EITC policy dimensions across space and time, and 3) disseminating a robust data set to advance future research by policy analysts and scientists. Methods: We used current public health law research methods to systematically collect, conduct textual legal analysis, and numerically code all EITC legislative changes from 1980 through 2020 in the 50 states and Washington, D.C. Results: First, the pattern of diffusion across states and time shows initial introductions during the 1990s in the Midwest, then spreading to the Northeast, with more recent expansions in the West and South. Second, differences by state and time of important policy dimensions are evident, including size of credit and refundability. Third, state EITC benefits vary considerably by household structure. Conclusion: Continued research on health outcomes is warranted to capture the full range of potential beneficial effects of EITCs on family and child wellbeing. Lawyers and policy analysts can collaborate with epidemiologists and economists on other high-quality empirical studies to assess the many dimensions of policy and law that potentially affect the social determinants of health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are currently many tools available for capturing and defining the context of one's environment. Digital phenotyping, the use of technology and sensors to capture moment-to-moment behavior, has shown potential in quantifying the lived experience of mental illness and in the identification of individualized targets related to recovery. Environmental data suggests that greenspace may have a restorative capacity on mental health. In this paper, we explore the relationship of greenspace derived from geolocation with self-reported symptomatology from individuals with schizophrenia as well as healthy controls. Individuals with schizophrenia had less exposure to greenspace than controls, but their exposure demonstrated a dosage effect: high greenspace environments were associated with lower symptoms for anxiety (Cohen's d = -0.70), depression (d = -0.97), and psychosis (d = -0.94), whereas effect sizes for healthy controls were all negligible or small (d < 0.38). The notion that greenspace may have a more pronounced effect on individuals with mental illness presents both potential areas for recovery as well as implications for health care policy, especially in cities with a broad range of greenspace environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modeling the behavior of zoonotic pandemic threats is a key component of their control. Many emerging zoonoses, such as SARS, Nipah, and Hendra, mutated from their wild type while circulating in an intermediate host population, usually a domestic species, to become more transmissible among humans, and this transmission route will only become more likely as agriculture and trade intensifies around the world. Passage through an intermediate host enables many otherwise rare diseases to become better adapted to humans, and so understanding this process with accurate mathematical models is necessary to prevent epidemics of emerging zoonoses, guide policy interventions in public health, and predict the behavior of an epidemic. In this paper, we account for a zoonotic disease mutating in an intermediate host by introducing a new mathematical model for disease transmission among three species. We present a model of these disease dynamics, including the equilibria of the system and the basic reproductive number of the pathogen, finding that in the presence of biologically realistic interspecies transmission parameters, a zoonotic disease with the capacity to mutate in an intermediate host population can establish itself in humans even if its R0 in humans is less than 1. This result and model can be used to predict the behavior of any zoonosis with an intermediate host and assist efforts to protect public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the evolution of COVID-19 in Cameroon over the period March 6–April 2020 using SIR models. Specifically, we 1) evaluate the basic reproduction number of the virus, 2) determine the peak of the infection and the spread-out period of the disease, and 3) simulate the interventions of public health authorities. Data used in this study is obtained from the Cameroonian Public Health Ministry. The results suggest that over the identified period, the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Cameroon is about 1.5, and the peak of the infection should have occurred at the end of May 2020 with about 7.7% of the population infected. Furthermore, the implementation of efficient public health policies could help flatten the epidemic curve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many countries and international organisations have been developing health system performance assessment frameworks and indicators to support healthcare management and inform public health policy. Effectiveness, accessibility, safety and patient-centeredness were four dimensions that were most commonly measured. This paper develops a new consensus-based decision model to assess the health systems, in which different stakeholders of healthcare systems are identified by different decision approaches, i.e., the coefficient variation approach, the Shannon entropy approach and the distance-based approach, respectively. The consensus result is obtained by minimizing the total deviation from the ideal point. A numerical illustration with simulated data is presented to show the effectiveness of our model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As of 2015, only 12 countries in the World Health Organization’s AFRO region had met Millennium Development Goal #4 (MDG#4) to reduce under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015. Given the variability across the African region, a four-country study was undertaken to examine barriers and facilitators of child survival prior to 2015. Kenya was one of the countries selected for an in-depth case study due to its insufficient progress in reducing under-five mortality, with only a 28% reduction between 1990 and 2013. This paper presents indicators, national documents, and qualitative data describing the factors that have both facilitated and hindered Kenya’s efforts in reducing child mortality. Key barriers identified in the data were widespread socioeconomic and geographic inequities in access and utilization of maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) care. To reduce these inequities, Kenya implemented three major policies/strategies during the study period: removal of user fees, the Kenya Essential Package for Health, and the Community Health Strategy. This paper uses qualitative data and a policy review to explore the early impacts of these efforts. The removal of user fees has been unevenly implemented as patients still face hidden expenses. The Kenya Essential Package for Health has enabled construction and/or expansion of healthcare facilities in many areas, but facilities struggle to provide Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care (EmONC), neonatal care, and many essential medicines and commodities. The Community Health Strategy appears to have had the most impact, improving referrals from the community and provision of immunizations, malaria prevention, and Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV. However, the Community Health Strategy is limited by resources and thus also unevenly implemented in many areas. Although insufficient progress was made pre-2015, with additional resources and further scale-up of new policies and strategies Kenya can make further progress in child survival. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While several papers have highlighted a lack of evidence to scale social innovations in health, fewer have explored decision-maker understandings of the relative merit of different types of evidence, how such data are interpreted and applied, and what practical support is required to improve evidence generation. The objectives of this paper are to understand (1) beliefs and attitudes towards the value of and types of evidence in scaling social innovations for health, (2) approaches to evidence generation and evaluation used in systems and policy change, and (3) how better evidence-generation can be undertaken and supported within social innovation in health. Methods: Thirty-two one-on-one interviews were conducted between July and November 2015 with purposively selected practitioners, policymakers, and funders from low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). Data were analysed using a Framework Analysis Approach. Results: While practitioners, funders, and policymakers said they held outcome evidence in high regard, their practices only bear out this assertion to varying degrees. Few have given systematic consideration to potential unintended consequences, in particular harm, of the programs they implement, fund, or adopt. Stakeholders suggest that better evidence-generation can be undertaken and supported within social innovation in health by supporting the research efforts of emerging community organizations; creating links between practitioners and academia; altering the funding landscape for evidence-generation; providing responsive technical education; and creating accountability for funders, practitioners, and policymakers. Conclusion: How better evidence-generation can be undertaken and supported within social innovation in health is a previously under-operationalised aspect of the policy-making process that remains essential in order to refrain from causing harm, enable the optimization of existing interventions, and ultimately, to scale and fund what works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prophylactic interventions such as vaccine allocation are some of the most effective public health policy planning tools. The supply of vaccines, however, is limited and an important challenge is to optimally allocate the vaccines to minimize epidemic impact. This resource allocation question (which we refer to as VID) has multiple dimensions: when, where, to whom, etc. Most of the existing literature in this topic deals with the latter (to whom), proposing policies that prioritize individuals by age and disease risk. However, since seasonal influenza spread has a typical spatial trend, and due to the temporal constraints enforced by the availability schedule, the when and where problems become equally, if not more, relevant. In this paper, we study the VID problem in the context of seasonal influenza spread in the United States. We develop a national scale metapopulation model for influenza that integrates both short and long distance human mobility, along with realistic data on vaccine uptake. We also design GA, a greedy algorithm for allocating the vaccine supply at the state level under temporal constraints and show that such a strategy improves over the current baseline of pro-rata allocation, and the improvement is more pronounced for higher vaccine efficacy and moderate flu season intensity. Further, the resulting strategy resembles a ring vaccination applied spatiallyacross the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) is an indicator used by the World Health Organization (WHO) to assess equity in households’ payments to the health system. In this paper, we prospectively calculated the population at risk of facing catastrophic expenditure due to purchasing three selected medicines (metformin, atorvastatin and amoxicillin) in Iran. Method: This study draws on the data set of the Iranian National Household Survey of 38244 households in Iran. CHE was calculated based on "capacity to pay" using different thresholds. Results: 20, 16 and 3 households had to spend more than 40% of their capacity to pay on amoxicillin, atorvastatin and metformin respectively. Lowest priced generic (LPG) medicines were found more affordable than the original brand (OB) medicines. Age, literacy and gender of head of household, economic status, settlement, size and number of breadwinners in the households share important association with CHE. Conclusion: Requirement of these specific medicines for long-term may subject the Iranian households to CHE. The study demonstrates important and specific insights for health policy makers in Iran to protect the households from healthcare catastrophes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Rural Australian populations experience an increased burden of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) compared to their metropolitan counterparts, similar to other developed countries, globally. Policy and other efforts need to address and acknowledge these differences in order to reduce inequalities in health burden. This paper examines rural health policy makers’ perceptions and use of evidence in efforts to reduce the burden of IHD in rural areas. Methods: Policy makers and government advisors (n = 21) who worked with, or advised on, rural health policy at local, state and federal government levels, with specific focus on the state of Victoria (n = 9) were identified from publicly available documents and subsequent snowball sample. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted in regards to the use of evidence in policy to prevent IHD and thematic analysis undertaken applying two theoretical perspectives: context-based evidence-based policy making and the conceptual framework for understanding rural and remote health. Results: The rural context, particularly low resourcing, was seen as limiting potential for evidence based policy at local government (LG) level. Lower levels of political pressure and education were seen as constraints to evidence-based policy in rural communities. Participants described the potential for policy to have a greater impact on reducing heart disease in rural areas though they felt under-resourced and out of touch with the scientific evidence. Scientific studies were less valued than local anecdote to prioritise specific policy. At all levels (local, state and federal) low self-efficacy in interpreting evidence and perceived lack of relevance inhibited development of evidence informed policy. Conclusion: The rural context constrains the use of scientific evidence in policy making for the prevention of heart disease in rural areas in Australia with multiple factors influencing the capacity for evidenced based health policy. This is similar to findings at the international scale and is for consideration across other developed countries that experience inequalities in IHD disease burden between rural and urban populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Modeling contributes to health program planning by allowing users to estimate future outcomes that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. However, modeling results are often not easily translated into practical policies. This paper examines the barriers and enabling factors that can allow models to better inform health decision-making. Description: The Decision Makers’ Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) and its successor, DMPPT 2, are illustrative examples of modeling tools that have been used to inform health policy. Their use underpinned Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) scale-up for HIV prevention in southern and eastern Africa. Both examine the impact and cost-effectiveness of VMMC scale-up, with DMPPT used initially in global advocacy and DMPPT 2 then providing VMMC coverage estimates by client age and subnational region for use in country-specific program planning. Their application involved three essential steps: identifying and engaging a wide array of stakeholders from the outset, reaching consensus on key assumptions and analysis plans, and convening data validation meetings with critical stakeholders. The subsequent DMPPT 2 Online is a user-friendly tool for in-country modeling analyses and continuous program planning and monitoring. Lessons learned: Through three iterations of the DMPPT applied to VMMC, a comprehensive framework with six steps was identified: (1) identify a champion, (2) engage stakeholders early and often, (3) encourage consensus, (4) customize analyses, (5), build capacity, and (6) establish a plan for sustainability. This framework could be successfully adapted to other HIV prevention programs to translate modeling results to policy and programming. Conclusions: Models can be used to mobilize support, strategically plan, and monitor key programmatic elements, but they can also help inform policy environments in which programs are conceptualized and implemented to achieve results. The ways in which modeling has informed VMMC programs and policy may be applicable to an array of other health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are more than one billion smokers globally according to the World Health Organization (WHO) report in 2017. Every year tobacco use causes nearly 6 million deaths worldwide. To deal with the smoking epidemic, society needs to invest resources efficiently. In this paper we introduce an optimal control model to determine the optimal mix of smoking initiation and cessation interventions to reduce smoking. We construct the model to reach a smoking prevalence target within a specific time horizon while minimizing cost. Our performance measure captures the cost of policy implementation over time, adjusting for inflation and social discounting. The analytical solutions to the model are presented in forms of ordinary differential equations (ODE). We then conduct several numerical simulations using data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and empirical studies. We first present analytical solutions for our model to solve for the optimal mix of smoking interventions. Then we simulate a public health policy to achieve 5% smoking prevalence in the US by 2030 using different combinations of real-life interventions. We examine the optimal trajectories, allocative efficiency and annual total cost of smoking cessation and initiation interventions. We find consistent results across all simulations. Our specific example reveals that the most efficient way to reach stated goal is by targeting cessation interventions first, and then gradually shifting resources to initiation interventions over time. While our numerical results are specific to the intervention we selected, our framework can be easily expanded to consider other potential interventions. We discuss the implications of our approach for the formulation of dynamic public health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2010, the UK embarked on a self-imposed programme of contractionary measures signalling the beginning of a so-called “age of austerity” for the country. It was argued that budgetary cuts were the most appropriate means of eliminating deficits and decreasing national debt as percentage of General Domestic Product (GDP). Although the budget for the National Health Service (NHS) was not reduced, a below-the-average increase in funding, and cuts in other areas of public spending, particularly in social care and welfare spending, impacted significantly on the NHS. One of the areas where the impact of austerity was most dramatically felt was in Accidents and Emergency Departments (A&E). A number of economic and statistical reports and quantitative studies have explored and documented the effects of austerity in healthcare in the UK, but there is a paucity of research looking at the effects of austerity from the standpoint of the healthcare professionals. In this paper, we report findings from a qualitative study with healthcare professionals working in A&E departments in England. The study findings are presented thematically in three sections. The main theme that runs through all three sections is the perceptions of austerity as shaping the functioning of A&E departments, of healthcare professions and of professionals themselves. The first section discusses the rising demand for services and resources, and the changed demographic of A&E patients—altering the meaning of A&E from ‘Accidents and Emergencies’ to the Department for ‘Anything and Everything’. The second section in this study’s findings, explores how austerity policies are perceived to affect the character of healthcare in A&E. It discusses how an increased focus on the procedures, time-keeping and the operationalisation of healthcare is considered to detract from values such as empathy in interactions with patients. In the third section, the effects of austerity on the morale and motivations of healthcare professionals themselves are presented. Here, the concepts of moral distress and burnout are used in the analysis of the experiences and feelings of being devalued. From these accounts and insights, we analyse austerity as a catalyst or mechanism for a significant shift in the practice and function of the NHS–in particular, a shift in what is counted, measured and valued at departmental, professional and personal levels in A&E. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for district level statistics has increased tremendously in Bangladesh due to existence of decentralised approach to governance and service provision. The Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys (BDHS) provide a wide range of invaluable data at the national and divisional level but they cannot be used directly to produce reliable district-level estimates due to insufficient sample sizes. The small area estimation (SAE) technique overcomes the sample size challenges and can produce reliable estimates at the district level. This paper uses SAE approach to generate model-based district-level estimates of diarrhoea prevalence among under-5 children in Bangladesh by linking data from the 2014 BDHS and the 2011 Population Census. The diagnostics measures show that the model-based estimates are precise and representative when compared to the direct survey estimates. Spatial distribution of the precise estimates of diarrhoea prevalence reveals significant inequality at district-level (ranged 1.1–13.4%) with particular emphasis in the coastal and north-eastern districts. Findings of the study might be useful for designing effective policies, interventions and strengthening local-level governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shift of the Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) epidemic, including cardiovascular disease, from developed to Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC), creates new challenges in contexts where there is poor information on healthcare costs. Clearly this information is essential for planning, and its relevance is even more valuable as a driver for prevention and control of NCDs. This paper begins to address that handicap by estimating the healthcare cost of Cardiovascular Disease (Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke) in Colombia, using a person-based approach. Results show that the annual healthcare cost of a person with Coronary Heart Disease is between INT$ 4,277 and INT$ 4,846, while the cost for a person with Stroke varies between INT$5,816 and INT$6,616. The expansion of the NCDs epidemic combined with such high costs threatens the financial sustainability of health systems; primary prevention and policies targeting structural and intermediate determinants of health are a promising way to make health systems financially sustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This paper presents a geographic information system (GIS)-based proximal area method and gravity method for identifying areas with physician shortages. The innovation of this paper is that it uses the appropriate methods to discover each type of health resource and then integrates all these methods to assess spatial access to health resources using population distribution data. In this way, spatial access to health resources for an entire city can be visualized in one neat package, which can help health policy makers quickly comprehend realistic distributions of health resources at a macro level. Methods: First, classify health resources according to the trade areas of the patients they serve. Second, apply an appropriate method to each different type of health resource to measure spatial access to those resources. Third, integrate all types of access using population distribution data. Results: In case study of Shanghai with the fusion method, areas with physician shortages are located primarily in suburban districts, especially in district junction areas. The result suggests that the government of Shanghai should pay more attention to these areas by investing in new or relocating existing health resources. Conclusion: The fusion method is demonstrated to be more accurate and practicable than using a single method to assess spatial access to health resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Translational research is central to international health policy, research and funding initiatives. Despite increasing use of the term, the translation of basic science discoveries into clinical practice is not straightforward. This systematic search and narrative synthesis aimed to examine factors enabling or hindering translational research from the perspective of basic and clinician scientists, a key stakeholder group in translational research, and to draw policy-relevant implications for organisations seeking to optimise translational research opportunities. Methods and Results: We searched SCOPUS and Web of Science from inception until April 2015 for papers reporting scientists’ views of the factors they perceive as enabling or hindering the conduct of translational research. We screened 8,295 papers from electronic database searches and 20 papers from hand searches and citation tracking, identifying 26 studies of qualitative, quantitative or mixed method designs. We used a narrative synthesis approach and identified the following themes: 1) differing concepts of translational research 2) research processes as a barrier to translational research; 3) perceived cultural divide between research and clinical care; 4) interdisciplinary collaboration as enabling translation research, but dependent on the quality of prior and current social relationships; 5) translational research as entrepreneurial science. Across all five themes, factors enabling or hindering translational research were largely shaped by wider social, organisational, and structural factors. Conclusion: To optimise translational research, policy could consider refining translational research models to better reflect scientists’ experiences, fostering greater collaboration and buy in from all types of scientists. Organisations could foster cultural change, ensuring that organisational practices and systems keep pace with the change in knowledge production brought about by the translational research agenda. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Birth registration and obtaining physical birth certificates impose major challenges in developing countries, with impact on child and community health, education, planning, and all levels of development. However despite initiatives, universal registration is elusive, leading to calls for new approaches to understanding the decisions of parents. In this paper, we report results of a survey of students in grades six to eight (age ~12–16) in an under-registered area of Kenya regarding their own understanding of registration issues and their suggestions for improvement. These students were selected because they themselves were also nearing the age for high school enrollment/entrance examinations, which specifically requires possession of a birth certificate. This assessment was also a companion to our previous representative survey of adults in the same Kenyan region, allowing for parent-child comparison. Results supported previous research, showing that only 43% had birth certificates. At the same time, despite these low totals, students were themselves quite aware of registration factors and purposes. The students also made quite prescient sources for understanding their households’ motivations, with many of their suggestions—for focus on communication of pragmatic benefits, or automatic measures shifting responsibility from parents—mirroring our own previous suggestions, and showing a level of pragmatism not witnessed when surveying their parents. This paper therefore adds evidence to the discussion of registration policy planning. More generally, it also builds on an important trend regarding the treatment of children as stakeholders and important sources of information, and raising an intriguing new avenue for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: As the global burden of chronic disease rises, policy makers are showing a strong interest in adopting telehealth technologies for use in long term condition management, including COPD. However, there remain barriers to its implementation and sustained use. To date, there has been limited qualitative investigation into how users (both patients/carers and staff) perceive and experience the technology. We aimed to systematically review and synthesise the findings from qualitative studies that investigated user perspectives and experiences of telehealth in COPD management, in order to identify factors which may impact on uptake. Method: Systematic review and meta-synthesis of published qualitative studies of user (patients, their carers and clinicians) experience of telehealth technologies for the management of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. ASSIA, CINAHL, Embase, Medline, PsychInfo and Web of Knowledge databases were searched up to October 2014. Reference lists of included studies and reference lists of key papers were also searched. Quality appraisal was guided by an adapted version of the CASP qualitative appraisal tool. Findings: 705 references (after duplicates removed) were identified and 10 papers, relating to 7 studies were included in the review. Most authors of included studies had identified both positive and negative experiences of telehealth use in the management of COPD. Through a line of argument synthesis we were able to derive new insights from the data to identify three overarching themes that have the ability to either impede or promote positive user experience of telehealth in COPD: the influence on moral dilemmas of help seeking—(enables dependency or self-care); transforming interactions (increases risk or reassurance) and reconfiguration of ‘work’ practices (causes burden or empowerment). Conclusion: Findings from this meta-synthesis have implications for the future design and implementation of telehealth services. Future research needs to include potential users at an earlier stage of telehealth/service development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The tobacco industry has long sought affiliation with major sporting events, including the Olympic Games, for marketing, advertising and promotion purposes. Since 1988, each Olympic Games has adopted a tobacco-free policy. Limited study of the effectiveness of the smoke-free policy has been undertaken to date, with none examining the tobacco industry’s involvement with the Olympics or use of the Olympic brand. Methods and Findings: A comparison of the contents of Olympic tobacco-free policies from 1988 to 2014 was carried out by searching the websites of the IOC and host NOCs. The specific tobacco control measures adopted for each Games were compiled and compared with measures recommended by the WHO Tobacco Free Sports Initiative and Article 13 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This was supported by semi-structured interviews of key informants involved with the adoption of tobacco-free policies for selected games. To understand the industry’s interests in the Olympics, the Legacy Tobacco Documents Library () was systematically searched between June 2013 and August 2014. Company websites, secondary sources and media reports were also searched to triangulate the above data sources. This paper finds that, while most direct associations between tobacco and the Olympics have been prohibited since 1988, a variety of indirect associations undermine the Olympic tobacco-free policy. This is due to variation in the scope of tobacco-free policies, limited jurisdiction and continued efforts by the industry to be associated with Olympic ideals. Conclusions: The paper concludes that, compatible with the IOC’s commitment to promoting healthy lifestyles, a comprehensive tobacco-free policy with standardized and binding measures should be adopted by the International Olympic Committee and all national Olympic committees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Waiting time for non-emergency medical care in developing countries is rarely of immediate concern to policy makers that prioritize provision of basic health services. However, waiting time as a measure of health system responsiveness is important because longer waiting times worsen health outcomes and affect utilization of services. Studies that assess socio-economic inequalities in waiting time provide evidence from developed countries such as England and the United States; evidence from developing countries is lacking. In this paper, we assess the relationship between social class i.e. caste of an individual and waiting time at health facilities—a client orientation dimension of responsiveness. We use household level data from two rounds of the Indian Human Development Survey with a sample size of 27,251 households in each wave (2005 and 2012) and find that lower social class is associated with higher waiting time. This relationship is significant for individuals that visited a male provider but not so for those that visited a female provider. Further, caste is positively related to higher waiting time only if visiting a private facility; for individuals visiting a government facility the relationship between waiting time and caste is not significant. In general, caste related inequality in waiting time has worsened over time. The results are robust to different specifications and the inclusion of several confounders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The purpose of this review was to identify risk factors, prognostic factors, and comorbidities associated with common spinal disorders. Methods: A scoping review of the literature of common spinal disorders was performed through September 2016. To identify search terms, we developed 3 terminology groups for case definitions: 1) spinal pain of unknown origin, 2) spinal syndromes, and 3) spinal pathology. We used a comprehensive strategy to search PubMed for meta-analyses and systematic reviews of case-control studies, cohort studies, and randomized controlled trials for risk and prognostic factors and cross-sectional studies describing associations and comorbidities. Results: Of 3,453 candidate papers, 145 met study criteria and were included in this review. Risk factors were reported for group 1: non-specific low back pain (smoking, overweight/obesity, negative recovery expectations), non-specific neck pain (high job demands, monotonous work); group 2: degenerative spinal disease (workers’ compensation claim, degenerative scoliosis), and group 3: spinal tuberculosis (age, imprisonment, previous history of tuberculosis), spinal cord injury (age, accidental injury), vertebral fracture from osteoporosis (type 1 diabetes, certain medications, smoking), and neural tube defects (folic acid deficit, anti-convulsant medications, chlorine, influenza, maternal obesity). A range of comorbidities was identified for spinal disorders. Conclusion: Many associated factors for common spinal disorders identified in this study are modifiable. The most common spinal disorders are co-morbid with general health conditions, but there is a lack of clarity in the literature differentiating which conditions are merely comorbid versus ones that are risk factors. Modifiable risk factors present opportunities for policy, research, and public health prevention efforts on both the individual patient and community levels. Further research into prevention interventions for spinal disorders is needed to address this gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the formation of infant attachment types within the context of active inference: a holistic account of action, perception and learning in the brain. We show how the organised forms of attachment (secure, avoidant and ambivalent) might arise in (Bayesian) infants. Specifically, we show that these distinct forms of attachment emerge from a minimisation of free energy—over interoceptive states relating to internal stress levels—when seeking proximity to caregivers who have a varying impact on these interoceptive states. In line with empirical findings in disrupted patterns of affective communication, we then demonstrate how exteroceptive cues (in the form of caregiver-mediated AMBIANCE affective communication errors, ACE) can result in disorganised forms of attachment in infants of caregivers who consistently increase stress when the infant seeks proximity, but can have an organising (towards ambivalence) effect in infants of inconsistent caregivers. In particular, we differentiate disorganised attachment from avoidance in terms of the high epistemic value of proximity seeking behaviours (resulting from the caregiver’s misleading exteroceptive cues) that preclude the emergence of coherent and organised behavioural policies. Our work, the first to formulate infant attachment in terms of active inference, makes a new testable prediction with regards to the types of affective communication errors that engender ambivalent attachment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With recent aging demographic trends, the needs for enhancing geo-spatial analysis capabilities and monitoring the status of accessibilities of its citizens with healthcare services have increased. The accessibility to healthcare is determined not only by geographic distances to service locations, but also includes travel time, available modes of transportation, and departure time. Having access to the latest and accurate information regarding the healthcare accessibility allows the municipal government to plan for improvements, including expansion of healthcare infrastructure, effective labor distribution, alternative healthcare options for the regions with low accessibilities, and redesigning the public transportation routes and schedules. This paper proposes a new method named, Seoul Enhanced 2-Step Floating Catchment Area (SE2SFCA), which is customized for the city of Seoul, where population density is higher and the average distance between healthcare-service locations tends to be shorter than the typical North American or European cities. The proposed method of SE2SFCA is found to be realistic and effective in determining the weak accessibility regions. It resolves the over-estimation issues of the past, arising from the assignment of high healthcare accessibility for the regions with large hospitals and high density of population and hospitals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bangladesh has made significant progress towards elimination of visceral leishmaniasis, and is on track to achieve its target of less than one case per 10,000 inhabitants in each subdistrict in 2017. As the incidence of disease falls, it is likely that the political capital and financial resources dedicated towards the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis may decrease, raising the prospect of disease resurgence. Policy memos may play a crucial role during the transition of the elimination plan from the ‘attack’ to the ‘consolidation’ and ‘maintenance’ phases, highlighting key stakeholders and areas where ongoing investment is crucial. An example of a policy brief is outlined in this paper. The background to the current elimination efforts is highlighted, with emphasis on remaining uncertainties including the impact of disease reservoirs and sustainable surveillance strategies. A stakeholder map is provided outlining the current and projected future activities of key bodies. Identification of key stakeholders subsequently frames the discussion of three key policy recommendations in the Bangladeshi context for the transition to the consolidation and maintenance phases of the elimination program. Recommendations include determining optimal vector control and surveillance strategies, shifting the emphasis towards horizontal integration of disease programs, and prioritising remaining research questions with a focus on operational and technical capacity. Achieving elimination is as much a political as a scientific question. Integrating the discussion of key stakeholders with policy priorities and the research agenda provides a novel insight into potential pathways forwards in the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bangladesh and in the rest of the Indian subcontinent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Health systems underpin disease elimination and eradication programmes. In an elimination and eradication context, innovative research approaches are needed across health systems to assess readiness for programme reorientation, mitigate any decreases in effectiveness of interventions ('effectiveness decay'), and respond to dynamic and changing needs. The malaria eradication research agenda (malERA) Refresh consultative process for the Panel on Health Systems and Policy Research identifies opportunities to build health systems evidence and the tools needed to eliminate malaria from different zones, countries, and regions and to eradicate it globally. The research questions are organised as a portfolio that global health practitioners, researchers, and funders can identify with and support. This supports the promotion of an actionable and more cohesive approach to building the evidence base for scaled-up implementation of findings. Gaps and opportunities discussed in the paper include delivery strategies to meet the changing dynamics of needs of individuals, environments, and malaria programme successes; mechanisms and approaches to best support accelerated policy and financial responsiveness at national and global level to ensure timely response to evidence and needs, including in crisis situations; and systems' readiness tools and decision-support systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This paper examines the ethnic and gender differentials in high blood pressure (HBP), diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), arthritis and asthma among older people in Malaysia, and how these diseases along with other factors affect self-rated health. Differentials in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases among older people are examined in the context of socio-cultural perspectives in multi-ethnic Malaysia. Methods: Data for this paper are obtained from the 2004 Malaysian Population and Family Survey. The survey covered a nationally representative sample of 3,406 persons aged 50 and over, comprising three main ethnic groups (Malays, Chinese and Indians) and all other indigenous groups. Bivariate analyses and hierarchical logistic regression were used in the analyses. Results: Arthritis was the most common non-communicable disease (NCD), followed by HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD. Older females were more likely than males to have arthritis and HBP, but males were more likely to have asthma. Diabetes and CHD were most prevalent among Indians, while arthritis and HBP were most prevalent among the Indigenous groups. Older people were more likely to report poor health if they suffered from NCD, especially CHD. Controlling for socio-economic, health and lifestyle factors, Chinese were least likely to report poor health, whereas Indians and Indigenous people were more likely to do so. Chinese that had HBP were more likely to report poor health compared to other ethnic groups with the same disease. Among those with arthritis, Indians were more likely to report poor health. Conclusion: Perceived health status and prevalence of arthritis, HBP, diabetes, asthma and CHD varied widely across ethnic groups. Promotion of healthy lifestyle, early detection and timely intervention of NCDs affecting different ethnic groups and gender with socio-cultural orientations would go a long way in alleviating the debilitating effects of the common NCDs among older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]