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Background. Determining prognosis for nursing home residents is important for care planning, but reliable prediction is difficult. We compared performance of four long-term mortality risk indices for nursing home residents—the Minimum Data Set Mortality Risk Index (MMRI), a recent revision to this index (MMRI-R), and the original and revised Flacker–Kiely models. Methods. We conducted a prospective cohort study in one 92-bed facility in Missouri. Participants were 130 residents who received a Minimum Data Set assessment from May through October, 2007. We collected the Minimum Data Set variables needed to calculate the mortality risk scores. We determined 6- and 12-month mortality for included residents. Using each mortality risk score as the sole independent predictor in logistic models predicting mortality, we determined discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic) for each model. Results. In our sample, discrimination was 0.59 for both the MMRI and the MMRI-R. Discrimination of the original Flacker–Kiely model was 0.69 for both 6 months and 1 year and 0.71 and 0.70, respectively, for the revised model. Model calibration was adequate for all models. Conclusions. Performance of four models that predict long-term mortality of nursing home residents was fair. In our population, the Flacker–Kiely models had similar and markedly better discrimination than either the MMRI or the MMRI-R. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background. Weight-bearing exercise has been discouraged for people with diabetes mellitus and peripheral neuropathy (DM + PN). However, people with diabetes mellitus and insensate feet have an increased risk of falling. Lower-extremity exercise and balance training reduce fall risk in some older adults. It is unknown whether those with neuropathy experience similar benefits. Objective. As part of a study of the effects of weight-bearing exercise on foot ulceration in people with DM+PN, the effects of a lower-extremity exercise and walking intervention on balance, lower-extremity strength (force-generating capacity), and fall incidence were determined. Design. The study was an observer-masked, 12-month randomized controlled trial. Setting. Part I of the intervention took place in physical therapy offices, and part 2 took place in the community. Patients. The participants were 79 people who were mostly sedentary, who had DM + PN, and who were randomly assigned to either a control group (n = 38) or an intervention group (n = 41). Intervention. Part I included leg strengthening and balance exercises and a graduated, self-monitored walking program; part 2 included motivational telephone calls. Both groups received regular foot care, foot care education, and 8 sessions with a physical therapist. Measurements. The measurements collected were strength, balance, and participant-reported falls for the year after enrollment. Results. There were no statistically significant differences between the groups for falls during follow-up. At 12 months, there was a small increase in the amount of time that participants in the intervention group could stand on 1 leg with their eyes closed. No other strength or balance measurements differed between the groups. Limitations. The study was designed to detect differences in physical activity, not falls. The intensity of the intervention was insufficient to improve strength and balance in this population. Conclusions. The training program had a minimal effect on participants balance and lower-extremity strength. Increasing weight-bearing activity did not alter the rate of falling for participants in the intervention group relative to that for participants in the control group. People who are sedentary and who have DM + PN appear to be able to increase activity without increasing their rate of falling. INSET: The Bottom Line. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study which determined the predictors of short-term functional decline in survivors of nursing home-acquired lower respiratory tract infection. Characteristics of the participants; Methodology; Results and conclusions.

Purpose:A focus on palliative care for residents with dementia is much more common in Dutch nursing homes than in the United States. We compared treatment and mortality in U.S. and Dutch nursing home residents with lower respiratory infections (LRI), which are often the immediate cause of death in dementia. Design and Methods:We studied two prospective cohorts—a study of pneumonia (n = 706) conducted in 61 psychogeriatric nursing homes throughout the Netherlands and 701 subjects with likely dementia from a study of LRIs in 36 nursing homes in Missouri. Results:Nursing home residents with dementia were more often treated without antibiotics in the Netherlands (23%) than in Missouri (15%). Indicators of severe illness operate in opposite directions: more severe illness is associated with antibiotic treatment in the United States, but with palliative treatment without antibiotics in the Netherlands.Implications:Our findings are consistent with others in indicating problems with transition to palliative care for U.S. nursing home residents with dementia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: We aimed to find the best predictive model for 14-day mortality in antibiotic-treated nursing home residents with dementia and pneumonia by first applying an existing model to the recent PneuMonitor study. Second, we evaluated whether model performance improved by revising variables or adding variables related to recent changes in the care for older people.Methods: The original prognostic model included gender, respiratory rate, respiratory difficulty, pulse rate, decreased alertness, fluid intake, eating dependency, and pressure sores. This model was applied to 380 recent pneumonia episodes in nursing home residents with dementia, updated by considering revising and/or adding variables, internally validated using bootstrapping, and transformed into a simplified risk score that can be used in clinical practice. Model performance was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics and calibration graphs to assess calibration; and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to assess discrimination.Results: The newer cohort had lower 14-day mortality and was less often dehydrated or malnourished. Median AUC of the original model over the imputed datasets was 0.76 (interquartile range: 0.76-0.77), compared to 0.80 in the old cohort. Extending the model with dehydration, bowel incontinence, increase in eating dependency and cardiovascular history, while removing pressure sores, improved AUC: 0.80 (interquartile range: 0.80-0.81) after internal validation. Calibration remained adequate (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: p = .67).Conclusions: In the newer cohort with less severe illness, model performance of the existing model was adequate, but a new extended model distinguished better between residents at low and high mortality risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Scant information exists about the risk of functional decline following treatment of acute illness in the nursing home (NH) setting. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of short-term (30-day) functional decline among survivors of NH-acquired lower respiratory tract infection (LRI) and the factors that predict such decline, including the role of initial hospitalization.Methods: We used a prospective cohort design to study 781 episodes of LRI in 1044 NH residents in 36 NHs in central Missouri and the St. Louis metropolitan area. Functional decline was defined as a 3-point increase on the Minimum Data Set (MDS) activities of daily living (ADL) long form scale.Results: Of 781 LRI cases who survived to 30 days, the incidence of ADL decline was 28.8%. In a logistic regression model that used generalized estimating equations to adjust for clustering, variables associated with ADL decline included the following: chronic feeding tube use (AOR = 4.54, 95% confidence interval, or CI, 1.61, 12.80), decubitus ulcer (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.29, 95% CI 1.35, 3.90), shortness of breath (AOR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.44, 3.30), short-term memory problems (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI 1.33, 3.23), decline in self-performance of toilet use in the 24 hours prior to evaluation (AOR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.29, 2.12), age (AOR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.05), and baseline ADL score. Addition of treatment variables to the model showed that initial hospitalization was also associated with ADL decline (AOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.20, 3.00). Residents with ADL decline at 30 days were less likely to recover to their baseline ADL status at 90 days.Conclusions: Many NH residents who survive to 30 days following LRI develop new functional limitations, and such individuals are at risk for ADL decline at 90 days. A limited number of clinical variables may predict short-term functional decline. Initial hospitalization for acute treatment of LRI may increase the risk of subsequent ADL decline among individuals who survive to 30 days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]