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Wave energy holds significant promise as a renewable energy source due to the consistent and predictable nature of ocean waves. However, optimizing wave energy devices is essential for achieving competitive viability in the energy market. This paper presents the application of a nonlinear model predictive controller (MPC) to enhance the energy extraction of a heaving point absorber. The wave energy converter (WEC) model accounts for the nonlinear dynamics and static Froude–Krylov forces, which are essential in accurately representing the system's behavior. The nonlinear MPC is tested under irregular wave conditions within the power production region, where constraints on displacement and the power take-off (PTO) force are enforced to ensure the WEC's safety while maximizing energy absorption. A comparison is made with a linear MPC, which uses a linear approximation of the Froude–Krylov forces. The study comprehensively compares power performance and computational costs between the linear and nonlinear MPC approaches. Both MPC variants determine the optimal PTO force to maximize energy absorption, utilizing (1) a linear WEC model (LMPC) for state predictions and (2) a nonlinear model (NLMPC) incorporating exact Froude–Krylov forces. Additionally, the study analyzes four controller configurations, varying the MPC prediction horizon and re-optimization time. The results indicate that, in general, the NLMPC achieves higher energy absorption than the LMPC. The nonlinear model also better adheres to system constraints, with the linear model showing some displacement violations. This paper further discusses the computational load and power generation implications of adjusting the prediction horizon and re-optimization time parameters in the NLMPC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current paper presents a comprehensive review analysis of Multi-agent control methodologies for Integrated Building Energy Management Systems (IBEMSs), considering combinations of multi-diverse equipment such as Heating, Ventilation, and Air conditioning (HVAC), domestic hot water (DHW), lighting systems (LS), renewable energy sources (RES), energy storage systems (ESS) as well as electric vehicles (EVs), integrated at the building level. Grounded in the evaluation of key control methodologies—such as Model Predictive Control (MPC) and reinforcement learning (RL) along with their synergistic hybrid integration—the current study integrates a large number of impactful applications of the last decade and evaluates their contribution to the field of energy management in buildings. To this end, over seventy key scholarly papers from the 2014–2024 period have been integrated and analyzed to provide a holistic evaluation on different areas of interest, including the utilized algorithms, agent interactions, energy system types, building typologies, application types and simulation tools. Moreover, by analyzing the latest advancements in the field, a fruitful trend identification is conducted in the realm of multi-agent control for IBEMS frameworks, highlighting the most prominent solutions to achieve sustainability and energy efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, advanced controllers, including Model Predictive Control (MPC), have emerged as promising solutions to improve the efficiency of building energy systems. This paper explores the capabilities of MPC in handling multiple control objectives and constraints. A first MPC controller focuses on the task of ensuring thermal comfort in a residential house served by a heat pump while minimizing the operating costs when subject to different pricing schedules. A second MPC controller working on the same system tests the ability of MPC to deal with demand response events by enforcing a time-varying maximum power usage limitation signal from the electric grid. Furthermore, multiple combinations of the control parameters are tested in order to assess their influence on the controller performance. The controllers are tested on the BOPTEST framework, which offers standardized test cases in high-fidelity emulation models, and pre-defined baseline control strategies to allow fair comparisons also across different studies. Results show that MPC is able to handle multi-objective optimal control problems, reducing thermal comfort violations by between 66.9% and 82% and operational costs between 15.8% up to 20.1%, depending on the specific scenario analyzed. Moreover, MPC proves its capability to exploit the building thermal mass to shift heating power consumption, allowing the latter to adapt its time profile to time-varying constraints. The proposed methodology is based on technologically feasible steps that are intended to be easily transferred to large scale, in-field applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces an affine registration (AR) algorithm to improve the performance of ultra-local (UL) model-free predictive control (MFPC) methods. The UL model is extensively utilized in continuous control set (CCS)-MFPC to estimate lumped parameters. However, in these cases, variations in inductance during operation can significantly impact the input gain coefficient of the UL model. Little work has focused on this aspect, which makes the motivation and novelty of this paper. The AR technique, derived from image processing methodologies, is employed to establish a mapping between predicted states and actual states during the commissioning process. Subsequently, during actual operation, the resolved voltage reference is modified based on the AR matrix to compensate for errors in the UL model. The theoretical control model is rigorously derived, and experimental results are presented to validate the superior performance of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model predictive control is a promising approach to robustly control complex energy systems, such as hybrid battery-hydrogen energy storage systems that enable seasonal storage of renewable energies. However, deriving a mathematical model of the energy system suitable for model predictive control is difficult due to the unique characteristics of each energy system component. This work introduces mixed integer linear programming models to describe the nonlinear multidimensional operational behavior of components using piecewise linear functions. Furthermore, this paper develops a new approach for deriving a strategy for seasonal storage of renewable energies using cost factors in the objective function of the optimization problem while considering degradation effects. An experimentally validated simulation model of the PHOEBUS Energy System is utilized to compare the performance of two model predictive controllers with a hysteresis band controller such as utilized for the real-world system. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the model predictive controller to the prediction horizon length and the temporal resolution is investigated. The prediction horizon was found to have the highest impact on the performance of the model predictive controller. The best-performing model predictive controller with a 14-day prediction horizon and perfect foresight increased the total energy stored at the end of the year by 18.9% while decreasing the degradation of the electrolyzer and the fuel cell. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates microgrid systems characterized by the coexistence of discrete events and continuous events, a typical hybrid system. By selecting the charging and discharging processes of the energy storage unit as logical variables, a mixed logical dynamic (MLD) model for the microgrid in islanded mode is established. Based on this model, model predictive control (MPC) theory is employed to optimize the energy management strategy, aiming to stabilize the DC bus voltage of the photovoltaic (PV) unit and minimize the switching frequency of the energy storage unit's charging and discharging processes during system operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a centralized disturbance suppression strategy for distributed drive electric vehicles which is based on model predictive direct motion control. This strategy is capable of addressing issues such as parameter uncertainties and external disturbances in vehicles. Firstly, the paper provides a brief introduction to model predictive direct motion control. Secondly, it analyzes the impact of vehicle parameter uncertainties and external disturbances on the mathematical model. Finally, a centralized disturbance suppression strategy based on a sliding mode observer is proposed. Simulation results demonstrate that this strategy exhibits excellent disturbance rejection capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When humanoid robots work in human environments, they are prone to falling. However, when there are objects around that can be utilized, humanoid robots can leverage them to achieve balance. To address this issue, this paper established the state equation of a robot using a variable height-inverted pendulum model and implemented online trajectory optimization using model predictive control. For the arms' optimal joint angles during movement, this paper took the distributed polygon method to calculate the arm postures. To ensure that the robot reached the target position smoothly and rapidly during its motion, this paper adopts a whole-body motion control approach, establishing a cost function for multi-objective constraints on the robot's movement. These constraints include whole-body dynamics, center of mass constraints, arm's end effector constraints, friction constraints, and center of pressure constraints. In the simulation, four sets of methods were compared, and the experimental results indicate that compared to free fall motion, adopting the method proposed in this paper reduces the maximum acceleration of the robot when it touches the wall to 69.1 m/s2, effectively reducing the impact force upon landing. Finally, in the actual experiment, we positioned the robot 0.85 m away from the wall and applied a forward pushing force. We observed that the robot could stably land on the wall, and the impact force was within the range acceptable to the robot, confirming the practical effectiveness of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the fact that autonomous vehicles cannot avoid obstacles by emergency braking alone, this paper proposes an active collision avoidance method for autonomous vehicles based on model predictive control (MPC). The method includes trajectory tracking, adaptive cruise control (ACC), and active obstacle avoidance under high vehicle speed. Firstly, an MPC-based trajectory tracking controller is designed based on the vehicle dynamics model. Then, the MPC was combined with ACC to design the control strategies for vehicle braking to avoid collisions. Additionally, active steering for collision avoidance was developed based on the safety distance model. Finally, considering the distance between the vehicle and the obstacle and the relative speed, an obstacle avoidance function is constructed. A path planning controller based on nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) is designed. In addition, the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM) is used to accelerate the solution process and further ensure the safety of the obstacle avoidance process. The proposed algorithm is tested on the Simulink and CarSim co-simulation platform in both static and dynamic obstacle scenarios. Results show that the method effectively achieves collision avoidance through braking. It also demonstrates good stability and robustness in steering to avoid collisions at high speeds. The experiments confirm that the vehicle can return to the desired path after avoiding obstacles, verifying the effectiveness of the algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The crucial issue of supervising and managing electrical energy in the context of aircraft electrification, known as More-Electric Aircraft (MEA), is addressed in this paper. In the pursuit of developing energy-efficient solutions with reduced environmental impact, this research contributes valuable insights into innovative control strategies crucial for advancing aircraft electrification technologies. Through optimization techniques, the management of energy aims to maximize the proposed objectives. With a focus on controlling battery power for charging, discharging, and load shedding, this study employs Model Predictive Control (MPC) alongside an optimizer solving a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem. Constraints encompass various aspects, including battery charging, maximum generator power, battery absorption, discharge limits, and converter power limitations. Theoretical results and detailed simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in finding a good compromise among the objectives subjected to the system constraints. Practical validation of the proposed approach is conducted through the European project ORCHESTRA, utilizing comprehensive system simulations in Matlab/Simulink (2022b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model predictive control (MPC) performance depends on the accuracy of the system model. Moreover, the optimization algorithm of MPC requires numerous online computations. These inherent limitations of MPC hinder its application in power electronics systems. This paper proposes a two-part solution for these challenges for a three-phase inverter with an output LC filter. The first part of the control scheme is a linear and modified model-free approach based on the auto-regressive structure (ARX) with exogenous input. The second part is the computationally efficient optimization algorithm based on the active set method to solve the optimization problem of the MFPC. The objective of the control scheme is to regulate the output voltages of the inverter in the presence of constraints. The constraints are the maximum admissible filter current and optimal duty cycle to avoid any damage to the system. To validate the performance of the proposed control scheme, simulations and hardware-in-loop (HIL) real-time investigations have been performed, comparing the results of the proposed approach with the model-based predictive control. The results showcase the computational efficiency and effectiveness of the MFPC approach, demonstrating its potential for overcoming the limitations of traditional MPC in power electronics systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the current power control problems of grid-side electrochemical energy storage power station in multiple scenarios, this paper proposes an optimal power model prediction control (MPC) strategy for electrochemical energy storage power station. This method is based on the power conversion system (PCS) grid-connected voltage and current to establish a power prediction model for energy storage power stations, achieving a one-step prediction of the power of the power station. The power prediction error is used as a power regulation feedback quantity to correct the reference power input. Considering the state of charge ( S O C ) constraint of the battery, partition the S O C into different states. Using S O C as the power regulation feedback, the power of the battery compartment can be adjusted according to the range of the battery S O C to prevent S O C from exceeding the limit value, simultaneously calculating the power loss of the energy storage power station to improve the energy efficiency. The objective function is to minimize the power deviation and power loss of the power station. By solving the objective function, the optimal switching voltage vector of the converter output is achieved to achieve optimal power control of the energy storage power station. The simulation results in various application scenarios of the energy storage power station show that the proposed control strategy enables the power of the storage station to quickly and accurately track the demand of grid scheduling, achieving the optimal power control of the electrochemical energy storage power station. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of increasing energy demands and the integration of renewable energy sources, this review focuses on recent advancements in energy storage control strategies from 2016 to the present, evaluating both experimental and simulation studies at component, system, building, and district scales. Out of 426 papers screened, 147 were assessed for eligibility, with 56 included in the final review. As a first outcome, this work proposes a novel classification and taxonomy update for advanced storage control systems, aiming to bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical implementation. Furthermore, the study emphasizes experimental case studies, moving beyond numerical analyses to provide practical insights. It investigates how the literature on energy storage is enhancing building flexibility and resilience, highlighting the application of advanced algorithms and artificial intelligence methods and their impact on energy and financial savings. By exploring the correlation between control algorithms and the resulting benefits, this review provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future perspectives of energy storage control in smart grids and buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the use of data-driven controllers for near real-time control of an HVAC and storage system in a residential building. The work is based on a two-stage management with, first, a day-ahead optimal scheduling, and second, a near real-time adaptive control to remain close to the commitments made in the first stage. A Model Predictive Control (MPC) is adopted from previous works from the authors. The aim of this paper is then to explore lightweight controllers for the real-time stage as alternatives to MPC, which relies on computational-intensive modeling and optimization. Decision Trees (DTs) are considered for this purpose, offering understandable solutions by processing input data through explicit tests of the inputs with predefined thresholds. Various DT variations, including regular, regressors, and linear DTs, are studied. Linear DTs, with a minimal number of leaves, exhibit superior performance, especially when trained on historical MPC data, outperforming the reference MPC in terms of energy exchange efficiency. However, due to impracticalities, an offline training approach for the DTs is proposed, which sacrifices performance. An online tuning strategy is then introduced, updating the DT coefficients based on real-time observations, significantly enhancing performance in terms of energy deviation reduction during real-time operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air-source heat pumps (ASHPs), functioning as thermally controlled loads, possess significant adjustable capabilities and controllability when aggregated, establishing them as premium resources for demand-response engagement. This paper proposes a control strategy for the aggregation of ASHP loads to participate in demand response across multiple scenarios, framed within a three-tier architecture: electric power system, Load Aggregator (LA), and thermal load. Load Aggregators, considering the user-comfort temperature ranges and the thermal storage characteristics of buildings, aim to minimize heating costs through time-of-use electricity pricing, while assessing the adjustability of the load. Upon receiving control directives from the power system's dispatch department, the strategy allocates load adjustments by considering user comfort and system regulatory needs, thereby addressing issues like aggregated power oscillations and significant rebound loads. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is corroborated through simulation, demonstrating its potential to enhance demand-response participation and ameliorate associated power stability challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To propel us toward a greener and more resilient future, it is imperative that we adopt renewable sources and implement innovative sustainable solutions in response to the escalating energy crisis. Thus, renewable energies have emerged as a viable solution to the global energy crisis, with photovoltaic energy being one of the prominent sources in this regard. This paper represents a significant step in the desired direction by focusing on detailed, comprehensive dynamic modeling and efficient control of photovoltaic (PV) systems as grid-connected energy sources. The ultimate goal is to enhance system reliability and ensure high power quality. The behavior of the suggested photovoltaic system is tested under varying sun radiation conditions. The PV system is complemented by a boost converter and a three-phase pulse width modulation (PWM) inverter, with MATLAB software employed for system investigation. This research paper enhances photovoltaic (PV) system performance through the integration of model-predictive control (MPC) with a high-gain DC–DC converter. It improves maximum power point tracking (MPPT) efficiency in response to the variability of solar energy by combining MPC with the traditional incremental conductance (IN-C) method. Additionally, the system incorporates a DC–AC converter for three-phase pulse width modulation, which is also controlled by predictive control technology supported by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to further enhance performance. PSO was selected due to its capability to optimize complex systems and its proficiency in handling nonlinear functions and multiple variables, making it an ideal choice for improving MPC control performance. The simulation results demonstrate the system's ability to maintain stable energy production despite variations in solar irradiation levels, thus highlighting its effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the development of hydrogen energy has been widely discussed, particularly in combination with renewable energy sources, enabling the production of "green" hydrogen. With the significant increase in wind power generation, a promising solution for obtaining green hydrogen is the development of wind-to-hydrogen (W2H) systems. However, the high proportion of wind power and electrolyzers in a large-scale W2H system will bring about the problem of renewable energy consumption and frequency stability reduction. This paper analyzes the operational characteristics and economic feasibility of mainstream electrolyzers, leading to the proposal of a coordinated hydrogen production scheme involving both a proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer and an alkaline (ALK) electrolyzer. Subsequently, a coordinated control based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) is proposed for system frequency regulation in a large-scale W2H islanded microgrid. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that the system under PEM/ALK electrolyzers coordinated control not only flexibly accommodates fluctuating wind power but also maintains frequency stability in the face of large disturbances. Compared with the traditional system with all ALK electrolyzers, the frequency deviation of this system is reduced by 25%, the regulation time is shortened by 80%, and the demand for an energy storage system (ESS) is reduced. The result validates the effectiveness of MPC and the benefits of the PEM/ALK electrolyzers coordinated hydrogen production scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies a cooperative modeling framework to reduce the complexity in deriving the governing dynamical equations of complex systems composed of multiple bodies such as biped robots and unmanned aerial and ground vehicles. The approach also allows for an optimization-based trajectory generation for the complex system. This work also studies a fast–slow model predictive control strategy with task prioritization to perform docking maneuvers on cooperative systems. The method allows agents and a single agent to perform a docking maneuver. In addition, agents give different priorities to a specific subset of shared states. In this way, overall degrees of freedom to achieve the docking task are distributed among various subsets of the task space. The fast–slow model predictive control strategy uses non-linear and linear model predictive control formulations such that docking is handled as a non-linear problem until agents are close enough, where direct transcription is calculated using the Euler discretization method. During this phase, the trajectory generated is tracked with a linear model predictive controller and addresses the close proximity motion to complete docking. The trajectory generation and modeling is demonstrated on a biped robot, and the proposed MPC framework is illustrated in a case study, where a quadcopter docks on a non-holonomic rover using a leader–follower topology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the growing number of EV charging stations integrated into the grid, optimizing the aggregated EV load based on individual EV flexibility has drawn aggregators' attention as a way to regulate the grid and provide grid services, such as day-ahead (DA) demand responses. Due to the forecast uncertainty of EV charging timings and charging energy demands, the actual delivered demand response is usually different from the DA bidding capacity, making it difficult for aggregators to profit from the energy market. This paper presents a two-layer online feedback control algorithm that exploits the EV flexibility with controlled EV charging timings and energy demands. Firstly, the offline model optimizes the EV dispatch considering demand charge management and energy market participation, and secondly, model predictive control is used in the online feedback model, which exploits the aggregated EV flexibility region by reducing the charging energy based on the pre-decided service level for demand response in real time (RT). The proposed algorithm is tested with one year of data for 51 EVs at a workplace charging site. The results show that with a 20% service level reduction in December 2022, the aggregated EV flexibility can be used to compensate for the cost of EV forecast errors and benefit from day-ahead energy market participation by USD 217. The proposed algorithm is proven to be economically practical and profitable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficient integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in buildings is a challenge that can be addressed through the deployment of multienergy microgrids (MGs). In this context, the Interreg SUDOE project IMPROVEMENT was launched at the end of the year 2019 with the aim of developing efficient solutions allowing public buildings with critical loads to be turned into net-zero-energy buildings (nZEBs). The work presented in this paper deals with the development of a predictive energy management system (PEMS) for the management of thermal resources and users' thermal comfort in public buildings. Optimization-based/optimization-free model predictive control (MPC) algorithms are presented and validated in simulations using data collected in a public building equipped with a multienergy MG. Models of the thermal MG components were developed. The strategy currently used in the building relies on proportional–integral–derivative (PID) and rule-based (RB) controllers. The interconnection between the thermal part and the electrical part of the building-integrated MG is managed by taking advantage of the solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation surplus. The optimization-based MPC EMS has the best performance but is rather computationally expensive. The optimization-free MPC EMS is slightly less efficient but has a significantly reduced computational cost, making it the best solution for in situ implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel approach for optimizing wind farm control through the utilization of a combined model predictive control method. In contrast to conventional methods of controlling active and reactive power in wind farms, the suggested approach integrates a wind power prediction model driven by a neural network and a state-space model for wind turbines. This combination facilitates a more precise forecast of active power, thereby enabling the dynamic prediction of the range of reactive power output from the wind turbines. When combined with the equation of state in wind farm space, it is possible to accurately optimize the reactive power of a wind farm. Furthermore, the impact of active power on voltage fluctuations in the wind farm collector system was examined. The utilization of model predictive control enhances voltage regulation, optimizes system redundancy, and increases the reactive capacity. Sensitivity coefficients were calculated using analytical methods to enhance computational efficiency and to resolve issues related to convergence. In order to validate the proposed methodology and control scheme, a wind farm simulation model comprising 20 turbines was developed to assess the feasibility of the scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dual-active bridge (DAB) converters are receiving increasing attention from researchers as a critical part of the power transmission of energy routers. However, the DAB converter generates a large backflow power in conventional control mode, and when the load is mutated, its output voltage takes longer to return to the reference value accompanied by large fluctuations. To solve the above problems, a hybrid strategy is proposed in this paper to optimize the converter. The mathematical models of the transmitted power and the backflow power were firstly derived through in-depth analysis of the DAB converter under extended-phase-shift (EPS) modulation, and the suppression of the backflow power was performed according to the improved Lagrange method utilized in the obtained results. Moreover, considering the poor dynamic characteristics of DAB converters under PI control, according to the state space average model of output voltage in the paper, a model prediction control equation is established to improve the dynamic response of the converter by predicting the output voltage value at the next moment. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the optimization strategy presented in the text. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The open-winding permanent magnet synchronous machines (OW-PMSMs) have recently been gaining more attention because of their fault-tolerant capability and power quality comparable to a 3-level converter-driven system. This paper reviews the common configurations of OW-PMSM when used as a generator, highlighting its shortcomings and benefits. The OW-PMSM with a common DC bus was found to be a promising direct-drive generator solution for wind energy conversion (WEC) systems considering fault tolerance, DC bus utilization, and power quality when appropriate control algorithms are in place. The presence of the zero-sequence current is the key disadvantage of the common DC bus configuration. The review highlights the algorithms that have been proposed to suppress the zero-sequence current of the OW-PMSM under healthy and various fault conditions, especially the open-circuit fault of semiconductor switch. Shutting down remotely located wind turbines because of faults, until they can be repaired, may not make economic sense. The OW-PMSM can offer the opportunity, to run a WEC system even under fault conditions albeit with low output power. This paper will assess the literature gaps in the existing control techniques that prevent the extension via a comprehensive review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the issue of optimizing the communication between the components of a cooperating control system formed by a pair of MPC controllers of a nuclear power plant turbine set using online recursive least squares identification. It is proposed to use event-triggered communication, i.e., sending information only at selected time instants, as opposed to the standard approach where communication is triggered by time (time-triggered approach). The aim of this paper is to propose a change in the method of information exchange in the case of asynchronous communication between control system components and to prove its suitability for the selected application. Resignation from continuous communication in favor of sending information only at selected moments allows the load on the communication network to be reduced by approximately 90% while maintaining the quality of control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microgrids face significant challenges due to the unpredictability of distributed generation (DG) technologies and fluctuating load demands. These challenges result in complex power management systems characterised by voltage/frequency variations and intricate interactions with the utility grid. Model predictive control (MPC) has emerged as a powerful technique to effectively address these challenges. By applying a receding horizon control strategy, MPC offers promising solutions for optimising constraints and enhancing microgrid operations. The purpose of this review paper is to comprehensively analyse the application of MPC in microgrids, covering various levels of the hierarchical control structure. Furthermore, this paper explores the emerging trend of employing MPC across microgrid applications, ranging from converter control levels for power quality to overarching energy management systems. It also investigates the future research perspectives by considering the challenges associated with establishing MPC-based microgrid control. The key conclusion derived from this review paper is that the implementation of MPC techniques in microgrid operations can greatly improve their overall performance, efficiency, and resilience. This paper thoroughly examines the various challenges faced in MPC-based microgrid operations, underscoring the significance of conducting research in advanced artificial intelligence (AI)-based MPC methods. It highlights how these cutting-edge AI techniques can bring about economic benefits in microgrid operations, addressing the complex demands of efficient energy management in a rapidly evolving landscape. The presented insights strive to enhance the comprehension and adoption of MPC techniques in microgrid settings, actively contributing to the ongoing improvement of their operational processes. By shedding light on key aspects and offering valuable guidance, this work aims to propel the advancement and effective utilisation of MPC methodologies in microgrids, ultimately leading to optimised performance and enhanced overall operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Germination paper (GP) is used as a growth substrate in plant development studies. Current studies bear two limitations: (1) The actual GP water content and variations in GP water content are neglected. (2) Existing irrigation methods either maintain the GP water content at fully sufficient or at a constant deficit. Variation of the intensity of water deficit over time for plants grown on GP is not directly achievable using these methods. In this contribution, a new measurement and control approach was presented. As a first step, a more precise measurement of water content was realized by employing the discharging process of capacitors to determine the electrical resistance of GP, which is related to the water content. A Kalman filter using an evapotranspiration model in combination with experimental data was used to refine the measurements, serving as the input for a model predictive controller (MPC). The MPC was used to improve the dynamics of the irrigation amount to more precisely achieve the required water content for regulated water uptake in plant studies. This is important in studies involving deficit irrigation. The novel method described was capable of increasing the accuracy of GP water content control. As a first step, the measurement system achieved an improved accuracy of 0.22 g/g. The application of a MPC for water content control based on the improved measurement results in an overall control accuracy was 0.09 g/g. This method offers a new approach, allowing the use of GP for studies with varying water content. This addressed the limitations of existing plant growth studies and allowed the prospection of dependencies between dynamic water deficit and plant development using GP as a growth substrate for research studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncontrolled charging of electric vehicles may cause damage to the electrical system as the number of electric vehicles continues to rise. This paper aims to construct a new model of the power system and investigates the rational regulation and efficient control of electric vehicle battery charging at electric vehicle exchange battery stations in response to the real-time grid-side supply situation. Firstly, a multi-objective optimization strategy is established to meet the day-ahead forecasted swap demand and grid-side supply with the maximization of day-ahead electric vehicle battery swapping station (BSS) revenue in the core. Secondly, considering the variable tariff strategy, a two-layer Model Predictive Control (MPC) coordinated control system under real-time conditions is constructed with the objective function of maximizing the revenue of BSS and smoothing the load fluctuation of the power system. Then, the day-ahead optimization results are adopted as the reference value for in-day rolling optimization, and the reference value for in-day optimization is dynamically adjusted according to the real-time number of electric car changes and power system demand. Finally, verified by experimental simulation, the results show that the day-ahead-intraday optimization model can increase the economic benefits of BSS and reduce the pressure on the grid to a certain extent, and it can ensure the fast, accurate, and reasonable allocation of batteries in BSS, and realize the flexible, efficient, and reasonable distribution of batteries in BSS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The highway cycle is an important consideration in the EV's new European driving cycles (NEDCs) range, as the steady-state efficiency improvement in such conditions can be greatly beneficial. In the model predictive control (MPC) of the permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs), the predicted next-step feedback reference generated by the equivalent circuit model (ECM) will contribute directly to the voltage vector selection, therefore influencing the performance of the motor control. In the current MPC scheme, when the conventional ECM is applied, it only considers copper loss, and the core loss is usually disregarded. In some circumstances, such as the highway cycle of EVs, the motors are at high speed, the torque is low, and the core loss can be significant in the losses, thus affecting the accuracy of control and the efficiency of the system; hence, the introduction of core loss ECM into the MPC would be beneficial. This paper aims to investigate the steady-state efficiency improvement of a novel ECM of PMSM considering core loss ECM, and the comparison will be based on model predictive direct torque control (MPDTC) using the core loss ECM, which will be compared to MPDTC with the conventional ECM of the PMSM. The results demonstrate the proposed ECM's efficiency improvement in various conditions, the limitations of the model and the simulation are discussed, and future work is proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose a novel distributed algorithm based on model predictive control and alternating direction multiplier method (DMPC-ADMM) for cooperative trajectory planning of quadrotor swarms. First, a receding horizon trajectory planning optimization problem is constructed, in which the differential flatness property is used to deal with the nonlinear dynamics of quadrotors while we design a relaxed form of the discrete-time control barrier function (DCBF) constraint to balance feasibility and safety. Then, we decompose the original trajectory planning problem by ADMM and solve it in a fully distributed manner with peer-to-peer communication, which induces the quadrotors within the communication range to reach a consensus on their future trajectories to enhance safety. In addition, an event-triggered mechanism is designed to reduce the communication overhead. The simulation results verify that the trajectories generated by our method are real-time, safe, and smooth. A comprehensive comparison with the centralized strategy and several other distributed strategies in terms of real-time, safety, and feasibility verifies that our method is more suitable for the trajectory planning of large-scale quadrotor swarms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the rapid growth in the number of electric vehicles (EVs), the large-scale grid connection of EVs has had a profound impact on the power grid. As a flexible energy storage resource, EVs can participate in auxiliary services of the power grid via vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology. Due to the uncertainty of EVs accessing the grid, it is difficult to accurately control their charging and charging behaviors at both the day-ahead and real-time stages. Aiming at this problem, this paper proposes a two-stage scheduling strategy framework for EVs. In the presented framework, according to historical driving data, a day-ahead scheduling model based on distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is first established to determine the total power plan. In the real-time scheduling stage, a real-time scheduling model based on model predictive control (MPC) is established to track the day-ahead power plan. It can reduce the impact of EVs' uncertainties. This strategy can ensure the charging demand of users is under the control of the charging and discharging behaviors of EVs, which can improve the accuracy of controlling EVs. The case study shows that the scheduling strategy can achieve accurate and fast control of charging and discharging. At the same time, it can effectively contribute to the security and stability of grid operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the concept of equivalent parameter predictive control (EPPC) elaborated for semi-active fluid-based (hydraulic and pneumatic) shock absorbers equipped with controllable valves and subjected to impact excitation. The undertaken problem concerns the absorption and dissipation of the impact energy with the requirement to minimize the generated reaction force and corresponding impacting object deceleration. The development of a control strategy for a challenging problem with unknown impacting object mass and unknown changes of external and disturbance forces is proposed and discussed in detail. The innovative solution utilizes the paradigm of model predictive control supplemented by the novel concept of equivalent system parameters identification. The EPPC is based on the online measurement of system response, the computation of the equivalent mass of the impacting object, and the repetitive solution of the optimal control problem with various prediction intervals and constraints imposed on valve opening. The presented method is proven to operate robustly for unknown excitations, including double-impact conditions, and it has similar efficiency to control methods developed previously for known impact parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale industrial processes usually adopt centralized control and optimization methods. However, with the growth of the scale of industrial processes leading to increasing computational complexity, the online optimization capability of the double-layer model predictive control algorithm is challenged, exacerbating the difficulty of the widespread implementation of this algorithm in the industry. This paper proposes a distributed double-layer model predictive control algorithm based on dual decomposition for multivariate constrained systems to reduce the computational complexity of process control. Firstly, to solve the problem that the original dual decomposition method does not apply to constrained systems, two improved dual decomposition model prediction control methods are proposed: the dual decomposition method based on the quadratic programming in the subsystem and the dual decomposition method based on constraint zones, respectively. It is proved that the latter will certainly converge to the constraint boundaries with appropriate convergence factors for the controlled variables. The online optimization ability of the proposed two methods is compared in discussion and simulation, concluding that the dual decomposition method based on the constraint zones exhibits superior online optimization ability. Further, a distributed double-layer model predictive control algorithm with dual decomposition based on constraint zones is proposed. Different from the objective function of the original dual decomposition model predictive control, the proposed algorithm's dynamic control-layer objective function simultaneously tracks the steady-state optimization values of the controlled and manipulated variables, giving the optimal solution formulation of the optimization problem consisting of this objective function and the constraints. The algorithm proposed in this paper achieves the control goals while significantly reducing the computational complexity and has research significance for promoting the industrial implementation of double-layer model predictive control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the last decade, there has been great interest in studying dynamic control for unmanned aerial vehicles, but drones—although a useful technology in different areas—are prone to several issues, such as instability, the high energy consumption of batteries, and the inaccuracy of tracking targets. Different approaches have been proposed for dealing with nonlinearity issues, which represent the most important features of this system. This paper focuses on the most common control strategy, known as model predictive control (MPC), with its two branches, linear (LMPC) and nonlinear (NLMPC). The aim is to develop a model based on sensors embedded in a Tello quad-rotor used for indoor purposes. The original controller of the Tello quad-rotor is supposed to be the slave, and the designed model predictive controller was created in MATLAB. The design was imported to another embedded system, considered the master. The objective of this model is to track the reference trajectory while maintaining the stability of the system and ensuring low energy consumption. The case study in this paper compares linear and nonlinear model predictive control (MPC). The results show the efficiency of NLMPC, which provides more promising results compared to LMPC. The comparison concentrates on the energy consumption, the tracked trajectory, and the execution time. The main finding of this research is that NLMPC is a good solution to smoothly track the reference trajectory. The controller in this case processes faster, but the rotors consume more energy because of the increased values of control inputs calculated by the nonlinear controller. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainty due to road fluctuations and vision system dynamics represents a big challenge to adjusting the steering angle of autonomous vehicles (AVs). Furthermore, AVs require fast action to follow the target lane to overcome lateral deviation with minor errors. In this regard, this paper introduces a fast model predictive controller formulated based on the discrete-time Laguerre function (DTLF) to overcome the high computational burden of the traditional MPC. To improve the hybrid DTLF-MPC performance, a modern and effective dandelion optimizer (DO) strategy is used in this work, which resulted in obtaining the optimal DTLF-MPC parameters and achieving satisfactory results. Furthermore, the proposed hybrid DTLF-MPC is designed based on different algorithms in the literature to evaluate the performance of the DO. Several scenarios are discussed in this paper to confirm the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed control strategy system against the vision system uncertainty and road fluctuations. The results emphasize that the proposed DTLF-MPC based on the DO can achieve the best damping performance for the lateral deviations with less overshoot; around 0.4533, and a settling time of around 0.01979 s compared with other algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Dual–Vector model predictive control (DV–MPC) method can improve the steady–state control performance of motor drives compared to using the single–vector method in one switching cycle. However, this performance enhancement generally increases the computational burden due to the exponential increase in the number of vector selections, lowering the system's dynamic response. Alternatively, limiting the vector combinations will sacrifice system steady–state performance. To address this issue, this paper proposes an enhanced DV–MPC method that can determine the optimal vector combinations along with their duration time within minimized calculation times. Compared to the existing DV–MPC methods, the proposed enhanced technique can achieve excellent steady–state performance while maintaining a low computational burden. These benefits have been demonstrated in the results from a 2.5k rpm permanent magnet synchronous motor drive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive control has great potential in the home energy management domain. However, such controls need reliable predictions of the system dynamics as well as energy consumption and generation, and the actual implementation in the real system is associated with many challenges. This paper presents the implementation of predictive controls for a heat pump with thermal storage in a real single-family house with a photovoltaic rooftop system. The predictive controls make use of a novel cloud camera-based short-term solar energy prediction and an intraday prediction system that includes additional data sources. In addition, machine learning methods were used to model the dynamics of the heating system and predict loads using extensive measured data. The results of the real and simulated operation will be presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The automotive production sector plays a significant role in the energy consumption of all the industrial sphere, which currently represents approximately 38% of the total global energy use. Especially in production sites with several manufacturing lines working in parallel, the occurrence of failures and anomalies or sudden changes in the production volume may require a re-scheduling of the entire production process. In this regard, a digital twin of each phase of the process would give several indications about the new re-scheduled manufacture in terms of energy consumption and the control strategy to adopt. Therefore, the main goal of this paper is to propose different modeling approaches to a degreasing tank process, which is a preliminary phase at automotive production sites before the application of paint to car bodies. In detail, two different approaches have been developed: the first is a physics-based thermodynamic approach, which relies on the mass and energy balances of the system analyzed, and the second is machine learning-based, with the calibration of several artificial neural networks (ANNs). All the investigated approaches were assessed and compared, and it was determined that, for this application and with the data at our disposal, the thermodynamic approach has better prediction accuracy, with an overall mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.30 °C. Moreover, the model can be used to optimize the heat source policy of the tank, for which it has demonstrated, with historical data, an energy saving potentiality of up to 30%, and to simulate future scenarios in which, due to company constraints, a re-scheduling of the production of more work shifts is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal heat storage is becoming important in systems with renewable energy sources. Their largest benefit is smoothing the intermittent production and reduction in the site peak demand. The advantages of thermal energy storage with phase-change material are storing energy at a lower temperature for reduction in thermal losses, and enabling energy transfer at a constant temperature, which reduces the risk of equipment damage. In this paper, a low-order model of latent thermal energy storage, derived in a state-space form by using the mixed logical dynamical approach, is proposed. The model is compared to a stratified model and shows significant improvements of physical accuracy and execution time. Finally, a model predictive control algorithm suited for the real case study is designed, implemented and compared to classical rule-based control. The obtained results show significant energy savings of 8.43%, and improvements in user comfort and equipment duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a new approach to controlling Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) using a neural network controller based on a Model Predictive Control (MPC) process. We use a Hammerstein–Wiener (HW) model representing the real PSA process data. Then, we design an MPC-controlled model based on the HW model to maintain the bioethanol purity near 99 % molar fraction. This work proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that captures the dynamics of the PSA model controlled by the MPC strategy. Both controllers are validated using the HW model of the PSA process, showing great performance and robustness against disturbances. The results show that we can follow the desired trajectory and attenuate disturbances, achieving the purity of bioethanol at a molar fraction value of 0.99 using the ANN based on the MPC strategy with 94 % of fit in the control signal and a 97 % fit in the purity signal, so we can conclude that our ANN can be used to attenuate disturbances and maintain purity in the PSA process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a battery state of charge (SOC)-based energy management strategy using hierarchical distributed model predictive control (HDMPC) for a standalone microgrid on solar-powered long-endurance aircraft. The microgrid was innovatively designed as a two-layer structure in which the first layer consists of a photovoltaic generation and battery storage system named the PV battery module (PBM). The second layer, named the microgrid subsystem (MGSS), consists of several PBMs, each of which supplies power to a specific DC load on the aircraft. The control system is divided into two levels: the grid-level model predictive control (MPC) and the converter-level MPC. The grid-level MPC adopts a distributed model predictive control strategy to obtain the reference power of each module. The converter-level MPC calculates the control variables of converters using a supervisory model predictive control (SMPC) strategy. The new microgrid structure and the proposed control strategy have improved the reliability of the energy system and increased its energy utilization rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National targets for CO 2 reduction in the German building sector have stagnated due to low refurbishment rates. This paper proposes an alternative approach using highly efficient, decentralized energy systems. By combining photovoltaic (PV) systems and combined heat and power (CHP) plants controlled by a modified hierarchical control algorithm, CO 2 emissions can be reduced. Results from a single-family home show a 13% CO 2 reduction with only 11% higher operational costs on heating days. On summer days, up to 50% CO 2 emissions can be avoided without additional costs. The control algorithm easily adapts to changing input parameters, making it suitable for different countries and business cases. Overall, with its modified control, the PV-CHP hybrid system can effectively reduce CO 2 emissions and adapt to varying conditions. The control can be easily used for other energy systems, like fuel cells or heat pumps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fuel-saving-oriented collaborative driving is a highly promising yet challenging endeavor that requires satisfying the driver's operational intentions while surpassing the driver's fuel-saving performance. In light of this challenge, the paper introduces an innovative collaborative driving strategy tailored to the objective of fuel conservation in the context of commercial vehicles. An enhancement to this strategy involves the development of a network prediction model for vehicle speed, leveraging insights from driver style recognition. Employing the predicted speed as a reference, a model-predictive-control-based optimal controller is designed to track the reference while optimizing fuel consumption. Furthermore, a straightforward yet effective collaborative rule is proposed to ensure alignment with the driver's intention. Subsequently, the proposed control scheme is validated through simulation and real-world driving data, revealing that the human–machine cooperative driving controller saves 4% more fuel than human drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, significant progress has been made in employing reinforcement learning for controlling legged robots. However, a major challenge arises with quadruped robots due to their continuous states and vast action space, making optimal control using simple reinforcement learning controllers particularly challenging. This paper introduces a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework based on the Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) algorithm to achieve optimal motion control for quadruped robots. The framework consists of a high-level planner responsible for generating ideal motion parameters, a low-level controller using model predictive control (MPC), and a trajectory generator. The agents within the high-level planner are trained to provide the ideal motion parameters for the low-level controller. The low-level controller uses MPC and PD controllers to generate the foot-end force and calculates the joint motor torque through inverse kinematics. The simulation results show that the motion performance of the trained hierarchical framework is superior to that obtained using only the DDPG method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A hub motor is an effective drive system for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). However, due to limitations on packaging and cost, there are few applications in which hub motors are taken as the only actuators for a brake vehicle. Most applications involve a Regenerative Braking System (RBS) combined with a Hydraulic Braking System (HBS). In this paper, a top hierarchy Advanced Emergency Braking System (AEBS) controller is designed in Matlab/Simulink and State-flow, including functionalities of basic emergency braking, brake force distribution between front and rear wheels, anti-lock braking and coordination between RBS and HBS based on Model Predictive Control (MPC); a Seven Degrees of Freedom (DOF) BEV chassis model is constructed and rear-end crash test scenarios are created in Carsim with a high and low road adhesion coefficient. A series of comparison tests show that not only are the stopping distances between the ego vehicle and target vehicle shorter, but also the braking torques, longitudinal slip ratio and rotation speed of each wheel are well controlled without wheel locking. To sum up, in addition to meeting the AEBS requirements of avoiding a rear-end collision, the control strategy developed in this paper also levels up braking performance and enhances vehicle stability on both high-mu and low-mu roads for BEVs driven by a hub motor independently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its high functionality, the solid state transformer (SST) represents an emerging technology with huge potential to replace the conventional low-frequency transformer (LFT) in a wide range of applications, including railway traction, smart grids, and others. On the other hand, model predictive control (MPC) has proven to be a highly promising control approach for several power electronics systems, especially those based on multiple power converters. Considering these facts, over recent years, different MPC techniques have been proposed for different types of SSTs. In addition to that, numerous MPC strategies have also been investigated for various power converters topologies that can be used in SSTs. However, a paper summarizing and discussing MPC strategies in the framework of SSTs has not yet been proposed in the literature, being the main goal of this work. In this paper, all the existing MPC techniques in complete SST topologies will be presented and discussed. In addition, for the sake of the example, an overview of MPC strategies in converter topologies typically used in SSTs will also be presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the coupling problem of longitudinal control and lateral control of vehicles, a two-dimensional (2-D) car-following control strategy for an electric vehicle is proposed in this paper. First, a 2-D car-following model for longitudinal following and lateral lane keeping is established. Then, a 2-D car-following control strategy is designed, and the longitudinal following control and lateral lane keeping control are integrated into one model predictive control (MPC) framework. The 2-D car-following strategy can realize the multi-objective coordinated optimization for longitudinal control and lateral control during the 2-D car-following process, and the multiple objectives are: safety, tracking, comfort, lane keeping, lateral stability and economy. In addition, the economy is important for electric vehicles. The weight matrix of the objective function in the MPC framework is symmetric, and the weight coefficients for the weight matrix have a great influence on the control. The contribution of this paper is: in order to adapt to different dynamic processes of lane keeping, the weight coefficients in the MPC framework are optimized in real-time based on the deep Q network (DQN) algorithm. Finally, to verify the 2-D car-following control strategy, a comparison strategy and two experimental scenarios are set, and simulation experiments are carried out. In scenario 1, compared with the comparison strategy, the lane keeping, lateral stability and economy of the proposed strategy are improved by 37.21%, 17.57% and 9.26%, respectively. In scenario 2, compared with the comparison strategy, the lane keeping, lateral stability and economy of the proposed strategy are improved by 36.45%, 16.66% and 18.52%, respectively. Therefore, compared with the comparison strategy, the 2-D car-following control strategy can have better lane keeping, lateral stability and economy on the premise of ensuring other performances during the 2-D car-following process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive control offers many advantages such as simple design and a systematic way to handle constraints. Model predictive control (MPC) belongs to predictive control, which uses a model of the system for predictions used in predictive control. A major drawback of MPC is the dependence of its performance on the model of the system. Any discrepancy between the system model and actual plant behavior will greatly affect the performance of the MPC. Recently, model-free approaches have been gaining attention because they are not dependent on the system model parameters. To obtain the advantages of both a model-free approach and predictive control, model-free predictive control (MFPC) is being explored and reported in the literature for different applications such as power electronics and electric drives. This paper presents an overview of model-free predictive control. A comprehensive review of the application of MFPC in power converters, electric drives, power systems, and microgrids is presented in this paper. Moreover, challenges, opportunities, and emerging trends in MFPC are also discussed in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles are regarded as a significant way to mitigate the global energy crisis and the environmental pollution problem. Motor control is a very important part for electric vehicles. As for hardware, a motor controller usually has components such as a power module, microprocessor unit, IGBT driver, sensors, and resolver-to-digital convertor. As for software, a field-oriented control (FOC) with space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) is a popular method, while model predictive control (MPC) has recently shown great potential in motor drives. In this paper, both FOC and MPC are discussed and the performances are compared based on experiments. As the implementation is on a digital processor, the discretization and normalization are addressed, and the flux observer and speed estimation are discussed. Some practical issues for implementation are also talked about, such as field weakening control, overmodulation, etc. This paper focuses on how to implement the improved motor control for electric vehicles as industrial applications. The steady-state torque performances of this motor controller are verified by motor test-bench experiments. MPC shows as good performance as FOC in these experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different types of distributed generation (DG) units based on renewable and non-renewable energy sources can create a local energy system in microgrids. The widespread penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) has affected many power system issues, such as the control and operation of these networks. For the optimal operation of microgrids, optimal energy planning and management in the new space governing the distribution system requires extensive research and analysis. Getting acquainted with the latest research about the evaluation of the problems and challenges in the design of control systems plays an important role in providing a guidance map for researchers to find the recent challenges and propose new solutions. This paper tried to list the challenges of distributed generation sources for MG applications, opportunities, and solutions. These challenges are reported in hierarchical control strategies and power-sharing categories. Therefore, Model Predictive Control (MPC)-based approaches are reviewed for different recent control levels and power sharing strategies in a comprehensive and simple point of view. The performance comparison of MPC methods together and different allocated fitness functions and implementation algorithms are dedicated. Another hand, the potential of MPC methods to control inverters for increasing the reliability of the grid, which this feature could not be achieved by using conventional strategies, while has not been investigated by researchers widely, is introduced in a short review. Therefore, this paper shows an intersection guidance map for readers to facilitate future research works in these exciting and undiscovered fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing severity of climate change, the power industry, as one of the main sources of carbon emissions, is playing an extremely important role in the process of low-carbon energy transformation. The purpose of this paper is to try to find a general method to solve the optimal path for the low-carbon evolution of the power supply structure so as to meet the challenges faced by the low-carbon transformation of the power industry in the future. This paper first uses the capacity coefficient index (CCI) to represent the power generation ability of different technologies and proposes a forecasting method for the CCI of renewable energy generation. In this paper, a two-layer optimization model considering multiple constraints is established and solved using the MPC method. The results show that China's installed capacity of renewable power could account for more than 50% in 2030, while the carbon emissions will decrease after reaching a peak in 2023. On the premise of ensuring sufficient reserve adjustment capacity of thermal power units, increasing the proportion of renewable energy generation is an important way to realize emission reduction in the power industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]