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Purpose: The use of economic sanctions has grown dramatically in recent decades. Nevertheless, many arguments are presented in the public policy space regarding their effects on target populations. The author presents the first systematic analysis of the effects of sanctions on living conditions in target countries. Design/methodology/approach: This paper provides a comprehensive survey and assessment of the literature on the effects of economic sanctions on living standards in target countries. The author identifies 31 studies that apply quantitative econometric or calibration methods to cross-country and national data to assess the impact of economic sanctions on indicators of human and economic development. The author provides in-depth discussions of three sanctions episodes—Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela—that illustrate the channels through which sanctions affect living conditions in target countries. Findings: Of the 31 studies, 30 find that sanctions have negative effects on outcomes ranging from per capita income to poverty, inequality, mortality and human rights. The author provides new results showing that 54 countries—27% of all countries and 29% of the world economy— are sanctioned today, up from only 4% of countries in the 1960s. In the three cases discussed, sanctions that restricted the access of governments to foreign exchange limited the ability of states to provide essential public goods and services and generated substantial negative spillovers on private sector and nongovernmental actors. Originality/value: This is the first literature survey that systematically assesses the quantitative evidence on the effect of sanctions on living conditions in target countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper explores whether data back the claim that imports of armaments are inherently bad for economic growth. Regardless of one's point of view, the production and trade of weaponry is a significant industry with serious economic implications that warrant investigation. The financial repercussions of military spending have been extensively studied, but the economic effects of arms importation remain unknown. Design/methodology/approach: This study adopts a pooled mean group approach to investigate the nexus between arms imports, military expenditure and per capita GDP for a balanced panel of twenty-five of the top arms importers in the world from 2000 to 2021. Findings: The authors find that arms imports and military spending negatively impact GDP per capita in the short run, but military spending is beneficial over the long run. The authors also used the Dumitrescu Hurlin Granger causality test, which revealed a unidirectional causation between per capita GDP and military expenditure, and a unidirectional causal relationship from military spending to arms imports. Research limitations/implications: This paper is deficient in a few aspects: first, it looks at only those countries comprising the top 70% of arms imports. Second, it omits many political, technological and legal factors that impact arms imports and military expenditures. Originality/value: This paper looks into the impact of defense spending and arms imports on economic growth for twenty-five nations with the highest share of arms imports in recent times. It is a significant addition to the literature as it resolves the debate of whether or not the military expenditure is wasteful and whether arms imports significantly harm the nation's economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Cluster management organizations (CMOs) have emerged over the past few decades as intermediaries that support the competitiveness of place-based clusters of economic activity. Despite their economic origins, policymakers are now starting to experiment with a broader use for cluster policies that seeks to leverage CMOs to tackle societal challenges in approaches aligned with the concept of creating shared value (CSV). However, there remains a void in conceptual understanding around the specific roles that CMOs might play in overcoming the barriers faced by their members for CSV, which this paper aims to address. Bridging this gap presents an opportunity for cluster practitioners and policymakers in a context in which environmental and social sustainability are at the top of policy agendas. Design/methodology/approach: Based on analysis of literature around collaborative approaches to CSV for mitigating transaction costs, the authors define the contours of a new conceptual framework for the roles that CMOs can play in fostering collective CSV. The authors illustrate how the different components of the framework are reflected in emerging cluster practice in the context of a new wave of European cluster-based projects tackling CSV elements. Findings: The resulting framework reconciles the concepts of clusters and CSV by explicitly positioning CMOs as intermediaries for facilitating the CSV strategies of their members. CMOs embrace emergent strategy making that targets (tangible and intangible) collective CSV capabilities and addresses collective CSV challenges. Collective CSV can provide a theoretical anchor guiding future cluster policies to fully leverage the transformative potential of CMOs. This conceptual framework opens a promising empirical research agenda, particularly around evaluating the plurality of impacts of CMOs. Originality/value: By stressing the social impact of CMOs alongside their well-understood economic impacts, and by enabling a categorization of functions that can support the monitoring of CMO activities toward collective CSV strategies, the framework provides a novel basis for inspiring further empirical research into the evidencing of these roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In this work, the authors analyze the dynamic interdependencies between military expenditures and the real economy for the period 1970–2018, and the authors' approach allows for the existence of dominant economies in the system. Design/methodology/approach: In this study, the authors employ a Network General Equilibrium GVAR (global vector autoregressive) model. Findings: By accounting for the interconnection among the top twelve military spenders, the authors' findings show that China acts as a leader in the global military scene based on the respective centrality measures. Meanwhile, statistically significant deviations from equilibrium are observed in most of the economies' military expenses, when subjected to an unanticipated unit shock of other countries. Nonetheless, in the medium run, the shocks tend to die out and economies converge to an equilibrium position. Originality/value: With the authors' methodology the authors are able to capture not only the effect of nearness on a country's military spending, as the past literature has documented, but also a country's defense and economic dependencies with other countries and how a unit's military expenses could shape the spending of the rest. Using state-to-the-art quantitative and econometric techniques, the authors provide robust and comprehensive analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. Furthermore, by predicting spectators for each league (American League and National League) and division in MLB, the authors will identify the specific factors that increase accuracy, discuss them and provide implications for marketing strategies for academics and practitioners in sport. Design/methodology/approach: This study used six years of daily MLB game data (2014–2019). All data were collected as predictors, such as game performance, weather and unemployment rate. Also, the attendance rate was obtained as an observation variable. The Random Forest, Lasso regression models and XGBoost were used to build the prediction model, and the analysis was conducted using Python 3.7. Findings: The RMSE value was 0.14, and the R2 was 0.62 as a consequence of fine-tuning the tuning parameters of the XGBoost model, which had the best performance in forecasting the attendance rate. The most influential variables in the model are "Rank" of 0.247 and "Day of the week", "Home team" and "Day/Night game" were shown as influential variables in order. The result was shown that the "Unemployment rate", as a macroeconomic factor, has a value of 0.06 and weather factors were a total value of 0.147. Originality/value: This research highlights unemployment rate as a determinant affecting MLB game attendance rates. Beyond contextual elements such as climate, the findings of this study underscore the significance of economic factors, particularly unemployment rates, necessitating further investigation into these factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of game attendance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying results, while the causes of such differences have not been analyzed systematically. The present study aims to fill the gap in the literature. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, the authors compile 543 empirical estimates from 51 studies of the exchange rate-growth nexus in order to meta-analyze its relationship. Meta-analysis allows the authors to quantitatively synthesize previous empirical studies and explain the variation in the results. This method also enables us to investigate the possibility of publication bias, as there is a tendency in research only to report results that are both statistically significant and show the expected signs. Findings: After addressing publication bias and heterogeneity in the estimates, the meta-regression results show that RER depreciation (or undervaluation) genuinely favors economic growth. On average, RER depreciation has a greater impact on economic growth in developing countries than the developed ones. The study's results imply that maintaining an undervalued RER could be favorable to spur economic growth, especially in developing countries. Originality/value: Initially predominant in the medical literature, meta-analysis has been on a rising edge in economics. This progress has produced many systematic quantitative review analyses with continuously improved statistical-econometric practices related to economic variables. However, to the authors' knowledge, no comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth has been conducted and published in any publicly accessible academic outlet. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the impact of remittance inflows on sustained economic growth in India. Design/methodology/approach: This study has taken a time series dataset for the period of 1976–2021, and a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model technique (NARDL) has been applied to check the impact of remittance inflows along with other control variables, including broad money and service sector performance, on the sustained economic growth of India. Findings: The results of the study indicated that in both the short and long runs, any positive shock in remittance inflows has a positive impact on the economic growth of India, while negative shocks do not affect economic growth. Practical implications: The economic policymakers of India can use the findings of the study by implementing remittance-friendly policies. Moreover, NITI Aayog, the body working toward achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs) in India, can also use this study as a reference while making strategies to achieve SDG. Originality/value: Economic growth has always been an area of interest among economists, researchers and policymakers. However, achieving sustained economic growth requires an analysis of those factors that themselves have sustained performance over a long period of time and have the potential to sustain it over the upcoming years. This study has taken remittance inflows as one such factor and investigated its impact on the sustained economic growth of India. At present, there is an evident gap in the literature that very little attention has been given to sustained Indian economic growth. Moreover, there is no study available in which the nonlinear impact of different variables has been tested on the economic growth of India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The present research aims at identifying the latent factors that are driving the rise of the shadow economy in Palestine, assesses its magnitude from 1998 to 2021 and investigates the influence that its size has on the financial sustainability of Palestine's public budget. Design/methodology/approach: The researchers employed the multi-indicator multi-causes (MIMIC) model to estimate the size of the shadow economy and investigate its effect on the financial sustainability of the public budget. Economic factors such as direct taxes, indirect taxes, government welfare, government spending and unemployment were considered causal variables, while indicators of financial sustainability included budget deficit, public debt and gross domestic product (GDP). The shadow economy served as an intermediary variable. Findings: Based on the findings, the researchers recommend regulating and formalizing legitimate activities within the shadow economy. Additionally, they suggest promoting investment projects to reduce unemployment rates, lowering taxes on essential goods and consumer items and providing support to local producers in Palestine. These measures aim at addressing the challenges posed by the shadow economy and fostering economic stability. Originality/value: The study reveals that the average size of the shadow economy in Palestine between 1998 and 2021 was 43.80%, fluctuating within the range of 39.92%–46.30%. It further establishes that an increase in direct and indirect taxes as well as unemployment contributes to the expansion of the shadow economy. Conversely, government welfare and spending exert a diminishing effect. Moreover, the study finds that the rise of the shadow economy correlates with an increase in public debt, budget deficit and GDP, indicating a negative impact on the financial sustainability of the public budget. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight. Design/methodology/approach: This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature. Findings: Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights. Research limitations/implications: To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk. Practical implications: While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making. Social implications: Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This study estimated total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. A high propensity to import constitutes a significant obstacle to economic growth in Mexico since the benefits of increased exports or any other aggregate demand expansion leak to the rest of the world. Design/methodology/approach – This paper estimated a Vector Error Correction Model of the total import demand elasticities concerning income, import prices and domestic prices. Total imports are a dependent variable, while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and import and domestic prices are the independent variables. Findings –The principal finding is that an increase of 1 peso in the Mexican GDP leads to a rise of 0.50 pesos in Mexican imports; the elasticity of import demand for prices is low. Still, the elasticity of import demand for domestic prices is 2.14 times greater than that for import prices. These results have significant economic policy implications, such as promoting the expansion of the domestic market and the national content of exports. Research limitations/implications – It is tempting to estimate the import demand function for the entire 1993–2019 period since such data is available. But by doing so, the authors would overestimate the propensity to import, given that from 1993 to 2019, the proportion of imports as a percentage of GDP went from 11.37 in 1993 to 29.66 in 2019. Therefore, it makes more sense to estimate the import demand function from 2000 to 2019, a period with a stable proportion of imports to GDP. Originality/value – A high level of imports in developing countries means that much of their aggregate demand is filtered abroad. Therefore, the low impact of its exports on GDP is related to the Mexican economy’s high imports. The authors calculate this relationship with new data and methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors present a study of the short-term impact of the Russian–Ukrainian war on global equity returns. The study aims to show that the conflict was priced into markets and whether the intensity of the impact depends on economic factors, such as dependence on gas, or/and political factors, such as belonging to the former Soviet power circle. Design/methodology/approach: Using the event study and a sample of 77 capital markets, accounting for over 99% of global capitalisation, the authors apply a system of seemingly unrelated regressions to the daily returns of the indices, isolating the short-term effect on the markets and finally apply cross-sectional methods to help determine the size and variability of the impact. Findings: The authors show that the impact is concentrated around day zero but is relevant in the days before and after. In addition, the authors show that being in the Soviet orbit and NATO simultaneously, as well as having high gas consumption and importing gas from Russia were key factors for investors. Originality/value: This study is the first to try to discern whether the impact on stock markets caused by the war in Ukraine is due to purely economic factors, especially energy, or whether there is also a geopolitical component. Specifically, whether the countries closest to Russia are being more threatened by the fact that they are closer to Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Based on the rankings of the global competitiveness index and the fragile states index, this paper aims to suggest alternative approaches to shed some light on the effectiveness of rankings in helping emerging economies improve their competitiveness from an institutional standpoint. Design/methodology/approach: The statistical analysis consisted of a two-stage analysis; the first stage consisted of constructing an updated Alternative Institutional Quality Index (AIQI), intending to design a comparative measure between dimensions over time. The second stage consisted of evidencing the structure of each of the observed dimensions' variance to evidence the existing changes or gaps of the AIQI and its components. The authors incorporated the Kruskas–Wallis (KW) model to test the results. Findings: This paper demonstrates that the analyzed countries generally maintain their competitive position, even though changes in their scores are reflected. This makes invisible the development and progress factors generated by the countries that are mainly found with low scores and only reflect stable structures that allow them to maintain their position. Research limitations/implications: The current study has a limitation because it concentrated on a few selected indicators based on the literature review. The limitations of this research may be overlooked in the future by adding additional variables and observations. The paper could be improved by including intra- and inter-regional approaches to control based on the occurrence of specific circumstances (i.e. informal institutions, economic development or factor endowments). Practical implications: The paper contributes to the applicable measurement of competitiveness and its structural change over time. Originality/value: This paper proposed an alternative and simple methodology to assess the evolution of the competitiveness indicators; this methodology could be used to measure structural changes at different levels, which may be an input for the design and implementation of policies to foster competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper focuses on one vital consequence which is that future infrastructure maintenance cost per capita will increase. Using a sample of 23 developed countries, this paper looks at rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2020 versus rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2100. This analysis can be applied to most other infrastructure maintenance costs in the future. Design/methodology/approach: However, this paper focuses on one vital consequence which is that future infrastructure maintenance cost per capita will increase. Using a sample of 23 developed countries, this paper looks at rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2020 versus rail line maintenance cost per capita in the year 2100. This analysis can be applied to most other infrastructure maintenance costs in the future. Findings: The findings show that trail line maintenance costs per capita in the year 2100 will increase significantly for most developed countries. Research limitations/implications: This research shows the negative consequences of declining birth rates in a very vital and important area. Practical implications: Despite declining birth rates and population decline in the future, many infrastructure systems still need to be maintained. Social implications: Maintaining the infrastructure will extract increasing amounts of vital national resources away from other societal concerns. Originality/value: From an extensive literature review, very little, if any, has been written on this subject. Yet, this topic is highly important and will continue to get more focus in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to assess the economic impact of uniform COVID-controlling policies that were implemented by the US government in 2020 and compare it with hypothetical targeted policies that consider the heterogenous effect of COVID-19 on different age groups. Design/methodology/approach: The author began by showing that the adjusted SEQIHR model is a good fit to the US COVID-induced daily death data in that it can capture the nonlinearities of the data very well. Then, he used this model with extra parameters to evaluate the economic effects of COVID-19 through its impact on the job market. Findings: The results show that targeted COVID-controlling policies could reduce the US death rate and GDP loss to 0.03% and 2%, respectively. By comparing these results with uniform COVID-controlling policies, which led to a 0.1% death rate and 3.5% GDP loss, we could conclude that the death rate reduction is 0.07%. Approximately 378,000 Americans died because of COVID-19 during 2020, therefore, reducing the death rate to 0.03% means saving a significant proportion of the COVID-19 casualties, around 280,000 lives. Originality/value: To the best of the author's knowledge, this paper is the first study to assess the economic impacts of COVID-controlling policies by using the multirisk SEQIHR model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study examines the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure (hereafter CSRD) on the Corporate Economic Performance (hereafter CEP) of a group of public shareholding companies in Jordan. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses different proxies to examine the impact of CSRD on companies' financial and economic value. The data were collected from a sample of 94 companies listed on the Amman Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2016. Based on a checklist of 41 indicators, this study employed the manual content analysis technique to collect and analyse CSRD data. A statistical analysis technique was also used to examine the hypothesized relationships between collected data on CSRD and profitability. Findings: The findings indicate that CSRD is value-relevant. It is positively and statistically associated with firm value proxied by Tobin's Q. In addition, it is positively and statistically associated with firm financial performance proxied by ROE and ROA. Research limitations/implications: This study contributes to the research debate on the relationship between CSRD and CEP, particularly in developing nations. The study draws attention to the need for information on different dimensions of CSR, including human resource, environmental, product responsibility, and community participation, as disclosure on such dimensions is positively associated with profitability. Practical implications: The findings provide important implications for Jordanian corporate managers to maintain CSRD in their best interest. With more emphasis on disclosing stand-alone CSR reports, corporate managers can present more information on different dimensions of CSR, attracting the attention of stakeholders such as investors, the government, media, and humanitarian activists and enhancing overall corporate goodwill. Originality/value: CSRD activities reflect a positive impact on CEP. Due to the dearth of relevant research conducted in developing countries, this study provides empirical evidence on the positive relationship between CSRD and CEP in an emerging economy, with more emphasis on specific dimensions of CSR, including human resources, environmental, product responsibility, and community participation. Since multiple proxies exist to measure profitability, this study uses multi-approaches for profitability examination proxied by Tobin's Q, ROE, and ROA. Moreover, the issue of CSR is original and interesting to be examined in the Jordanian context, where the listed firms have reported a homogeneous perception of CSR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The authors present a dynamic macroeconomic model for assessment of disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies under multiple hazards. The model can be used to analyze and compare various potential policies in terms of their economic consequences. The decomposition of these effects into multiple benefits helps policy makers and other stakeholders better understand the ex ante and ex-post advantages of DRR investments. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues. Design/methodology/approach: A dynamic real business cycle model is at the core of this research. In the model multiple natural hazards modeled stochastically cause shocks to the economy. Economic outcomes, most importantly, output can be assessed before and after disasters and under various DRR policies. The decomposition of benefits aims to quantify the concept of triple dividends. Findings: In case study applications in Tanzania and Zambia, the authors find that investments into physical infrastructure and risk transfer instruments generate a variety of benefits even in the absence of disaster. A land use restriction with planned relocation for example reduces output in the short run but in the long run increases it. Overall, policy effects of various DRR interventions evolve in a nonmonotonic manner and should be evaluated over a long period of time using dynamic simulation. Originality/value: The novelty of this study lies in the economic quantification of multiple benefits described in the triple dividends literature. This helps comparing ex ante, ex-post and volatility-related economic effects of multiple disasters and related physical and financial DRR investment options. As observed in the case studies, the model can also identify overlooked temporal heterogeneity of co-benefits of DRR investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Maintenance is a critical business function with a great impact on economic, environmental and social aspects. However, maintenance decisions' planning has been driven by merely economic and technical measures with inadequate consideration of environmental and social dimensions. This paper presents a review of the literature pertaining to sustainable maintenance decision-making models supported by a bibliometric analysis that seeks to establish the evolution of this research over time and identify the main research clusters. Design/methodology/approach: A systematic literature review, supported with a bibliometric and network analysis, of the extant studies is conducted. The relevant literature is categorized based on which sustainability pillar, or possibly multiple ones, is being considered with further classification outlining the application area, modeling approach and the specific peculiarities characterizing each area. Findings: The review revealed that maintenance and sustainability modeling is an emerging area of research that has intensified in the last few years. This fertile area can be developed further in several directions. In particular, there is room for devising models that are implementable, based on reliable and timely data with proven tangible practical results. While the environmental aspect has been considered, there is a clear scarcity of works addressing the social dimension. One of the identified barriers to developing applicable models is the lack of the required, accurate and timely data. Originality/value: This work contributes to the maintenance and sustainability modeling research area, provides insights not previously addressed and highlights several avenues for future research. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first review that looks at the integration of sustainability issues in maintenance modeling and optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The study aims at estimating the shadow economy (SE) using the method of demand for currency in Palestine for the period 2008–2018 by studying the relationship between a group of variables that affect the ratio of money traded outside the banking system to the money supply in the broad sense. Design/methodology/approach – The study has adopted analytical and descriptive research methods to estimate SE in Palestinian territories. The data has been obtained from the inflation reports issued by the Palestinian Monetary Authority for ten years, from 2008 to 2018. A standard model was constructed using EViews version 8 for statistical data processing after converting the annual data to quarterly data. Findings –The authors demonstrated that the size of the SE in Palestinian territories has varied over time, and the annual average of its size during the study period reached about $1764.893 (in millions). This amount constitutes about 15.5% of the gross domestic product. The study provides recommendations for reducing the size of the SE in Palestinian territories. Practical implications – The current study shows that shadow economics could significantly matter for economic policy design by policymakers. Originality/value – This study deals directly with Tanzi’s “estimation of shadow economy in Palestinian territories” concept and its impact on economic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to derive the time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of the Nigerian cocoa sector against Nigeria's share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world merchandise exports (REC_WM) from 1995 to 2018. By concentrating on different factors such as demand and supply capacity, price factors and exchange rate, the authors examine the determinants of REC. Design/methodology/approach: The authors calculated three different REC indexes. The authors also developed the relative symmetric export competitiveness index for comparative advantage calculation and avoiding the possible bias. The determinants of REC for Nigerian cocoa were captured using the short-run regression (SRR) model. Findings: The study showed that Nigeria's cocoa exports are still competitive despite experiencing some declining stages. Based on the SRR model, higher per capita income had a positive effect on the REC, while higher domestic prices significantly reduced the REC of cocoa. Further, the African Growth Opportunity Act agreement adversely affected the REC of cocoa. Originality/value: This study provides a foundation for future research and enhances the literature on agricultural trade. This research makes a few contributions both from a scientific and a policy perspective. First, it is the first study on the REC analysis for the Nigerian cocoa industry. Second, a wide range of comparisons of REC among the world's largest cocoa exporters was provided following implications of the various economic policies and local policy strategies. Third, the latest 24-year data sets were covered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The Australian prisoner population has experienced a dramatic increase in the number of older inmates over the past decade, consistent with the greying of the prisoner population that is being observed worldwide. Reviews suggest the need for further evidence and practice outside of the USA. This paper aims to review and discuss the cost and social implications of the rising health-care needs of this population in Australia. Design/methodology/approach: A review of international research and policies is presented, as well as the results of basic economic modelling relating to the expected rise in health-care costs of the ageing prisoner population in Australia. Findings: Taking into consideration the continued rise in incarceration rates, the calculations show that the health costs of prisoners could increase by anywhere between 17% and 90% depending on whether the increase of older prisoners continues as it has in the past decade. These trends are likely to continue over the next decade and will result in higher health costs of prisons under a number of different imprisonment scenarios. Policy responses in Australia have been slow so far, with most initiatives being undertaken in the USA with promising results. Practical implications: The authors suggest that in the absence of a coordinated policy response, covering a range of interventions, costs will continue to increase, particularly as this population continues to age more rapidly than the general population due to an accumulation of risk factors. Well-conceived interventions would be a worthwhile investment from both financial and social perspectives. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first commentary to acknowledge this rising public health issue and to both review and model its implications for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries, including Palestine, implemented lockdown rules. These measures slowed the outbreak of the coronavirus, and because of the poor management of the Palestinian government in dealing with women's rights in light of the Corona pandemic, they contributed to increasing gender-based violence (GBV). Design/methodology/approach: The study used the qualitative method. An inductive thematic latent content analysis was applied using the MAXQDA 2020 program throughout the data collection stage. The content analysis in this study focused on interviews made with the survivors. The interview schedule consisted of four questions covering different aspects of knowledge around GBV during COVID-19 in the Gaza Strip. In-depth interviews were conducted in Arabic with 25 survivors who experienced GBV between January 17 and March 13, 2022. Findings: The results show that the kind of violence the survivors were most subjected to is psychological violence, followed by economic violence, and the least kind of violence that the survivors were subjected to was sexual violence. The study revealed the good practices for preventing and combating violence against Palestinian women and girls due to government measures to reduce COVID-19 from the perspective of survivors. Research limitations/implications: One of the limitations of this study was the small number of cases coming to the Aisha Association for support. Because of the temporary suspension of psychological and social support projects from the foundation due to a problem related to funding, some survivors also fear that their husbands will discover that they have participated in the study, so they hesitate to agree to an interview. Survivors' lack of understanding of the study question related to implications of closing social justice institutions due to COVID-19 on GBV? This led to conflicting answers. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, it is the first study in Palestine that dealt Consequences of Government Measures in Palestine to Mitigate COVID-19 on GBV, and its results will be important for the protection of survivors and the adoption of government policies in Palestine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The research aims to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on a company's behaviour concerning its human capital. Additionally, the difference in effect for companies with specific human capital is analysed. Design/methodology/approach: The hypotheses are tested on a multi-industry sample of large public companies from five European countries, using panel data modelling. The index of Baker et al. (2016) is used to measure EPU. Findings: In the case of increasing EPU on one standard deviation, companies tend to reduce their human capital by approximately 1.7%. Moreover, despite theoretical assumptions, the effect on companies with more specific human capital is twice stronger. The heterogeneity of effect across countries and industries is also present. Practical implications: Regulators and governments should consciously introduce changes in relation to regulations and decrease the uncertainty of economic policy to stimulate corporate investments in human capital. Originality/value: This is the first study that considers the mechanism of EPU and its influence on corporate human capital. The results suggest that concerns regarding economic policy cause companies to reduce human capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper investigates the joint relationship between economic growth, income inequality and fiscal adjustments using a panel of 47 Japanese prefectures from 1998 to 2017. Design/methodology/approach: To assess jointly fiscal adjustment impacts on growth and inequality and to take into account the interdependence between these variables, the authors use a simultaneous equation model and estimate it by using the three-stage least squares estimation method. Findings: The results show evidence of a trade-off between growth and inequality through fiscal adjustments. They reveal that first, fiscal adjustments have contractionary effects on growth. Second, they highlight the disparity between urban and rural taxpayers. Third, they provide evidence of a trade-off between fiscal adjustments and inequality through the labor market. Research limitations/implications: Based on the literature, the composition of fiscal adjustments is a crucial factor in analyzing fiscal adjustment impacts on economic growth and income inequality. The authors do not consider this aspect in the analysis; however, fiscal policy outcomes variables are included as a workaround for this. Practical implications: These results suggest that authorities favor expenditure-based adjustments as they are less contractionary on the economy. Moreover, they should finance public expenditures through a tax on capital in order to mitigate fiscal adjustment impacts on inequality while promoting growth. Originality/value: The paper is novel in testing the existence of a trade-off between economic growth and income inequality through fiscal adjustments at a sub-national level with an additional focus on urban and rural regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The choice of Southern Europe is partly based on the observation that the sample includes a number of countries whose economies faced more severe difficulties than elsewhere in Europe. Economically they were less able to absorb the economic shock posed by COVID-19. It is also partly based on the characteristics of the pandemic. A number of countries in the sample were amongst the earliest in Europe to be hit by the pandemic and a several were harder hit in terms of both morbidity and mortality. Design/methodology/approach: This study uses evidence from World Bank enterprise surveys of a sample of firms from six countries in Southern Europe. It examines the early evidence of the effects of COVID-19 on labour markets. The economic consequences potentially cover a wide range of issues. The focus of this study is on firm level evidence of the effect on labour. The evidence and the analysis are provided at a time when the pandemic is still in progress. The authors use both traditional regression analysis and IPWRA to assess the joint effect of loans versus government support on, firstly, the change in sales revenues and, secondly, the number of weeks that the firm would expect to survive with no sales revenues. Findings: The study suggests that, despite efforts to support firms and hoard labour, there is a prospect of a significant number of firm closures with a consequent loss of employment. Temporary firm closures also represent a substantial loss of labour weeks. These are partly related to a significant number of workers subject to furloughs. The empirical findings suggest that COVID-19 cases and deaths have directly affected firm sales but government containment measures, particularly closures, have more strongly affected firms. Losses of sales were unsurprisingly related to losses of employment. Remote working has contributed to sustaining employment but online business has not affected most sectors. Research limitations/implications: The future progress of COVID-19 and government containment measures is uncertain, and the full economic consequences will probably continue to emerge after the end of the pandemic. The full extent of the impact on labour will probably not be the first of these. There are obvious advantages in seeking to learn lessons from the early stages of the pandemic but there are also obvious constraints. The full economic consequences will take longer to emerge than the pandemic itself and the full consequences for employment will take longer to be evident than many other economic effects. Practical implications: Both temporary closures and furloughs impose costs that will be borne by firms, workers and government. The effects of COVID-19 on firms differ across sectors. Adverse effects tend to be higher in hospitality, non-essential retail and travel. That many firms lack the capacity to survive further temporary closures of a similar duration to those in the earlier stages emphasises that the support provided in the near future is of critical importance to control employment losses through permanent firm closures. A long-term perspective suggests neither permanent closure nor laying off workers may be the best response to a temporary crisis in demand. A stakeholder model of the firm would often suggest that it is not an optimal for the point of view of workers or the wider economy either. Both imply a preference for labour hoarding. Social implications: The most affected are sectors with a high proportion of female workers and, in consequence, most of the countries in the sample exhibit an early decline of the already lower than average share of women in employment. Originality/value: The data used have been recently released and this is the first analysis using the data to look at the consequence on firms employment decisions during the Pandemic. The case of Southern Europe is much understudied, though one of the most dramatic as to the consequences of the pandemic. From a methodological point of view, the authors use not only traditional regression analysis, but also the matching approach to identify the effect of different policy options on labour demand by firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Literature shows that the economics of early failures in maintenance and electric utilities have not been deeply analyzed. This study aims to focus on quantifying the economic impact that early failures in current transformers have on total maintenance costs. The empirical study is conducted in a regional transmission division of an electric utility located in Mexico. Design/methodology/approach: The utility's database was accessed to collect 219 maintenance records. Clustering techniques were used to identify early failures from a bimodal distribution of failures. Confirmatory goodness-of-fit procedures followed the analysis, and finally, direct and opportunity costs were estimated by adapting the cost-of-quality (PAF) Model. Findings: Around 11% of all maintenance activities are triggered by early failures, and they account for up to US$2.2m during the eight-year period under study, which represents 16% of total maintenance costs. Additionally, opportunity costs represent close to two-thirds of the total costs due to early failures. This was obtained after finding and validating a clear-cut border of 3.5 months between early failures and the rest. Originality/value: Failures in energy grids and power transmission can have a large economic impact on the power industry and the society in general. Thus, the maintenance function in equipment such as current transformers is a crucial entry of the budget of any electric utility. This study is one of the very few that highlights the magnitude and importance of direct and opportunity costs derived from early failures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess higher education institutions' (HEIs) social sustainability by applying Integrated Social Value (ISV) analysis to eight universities belonging to the Catalan Association of Public Universities in Spain. Design/methodology/approach: ISV analysis is a social accounting methodology that considers both the economic value and the social value created for all the organisation's stakeholders through a participatory and systematic process. Findings: The authors have shown that ISV analysis can be effective to assess the impacts on social sustainability of HEIs. The monetised results facilitate understanding about the valued impacts and allow integration with the universities' financial data. Research limitations/implications: The research advances the under-researched topic of social sustainability assessment in higher education. Practical implications: Quantifying universities' social impacts in monetary terms may help to transform conventional financial accounting and improve HEIs' internal strategy and management according to sustainability principles. Social implications: The process of measuring the social value created by universities provides a way to meet the rising demands for greater accountability and transparency and facilitates engagement with stakeholders on how these institutions are contributing to sustainable development. Originality/value: ISV analysis represents an innovative approach to assess how HEIs create benefits for its internal and external stakeholders and contribute to solutions to social challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: International tourism and FDI inflows have generated detectable beneficial impacts on the economy of Estonia in the last decades. However, recently, poor international market conditions mostly caused by the trade war and COVID-19 pandemic have been a potential threat to these two factors. Besides, the poor performance of investments in recent years is behind the stagnation of productivity in Estonia. This study examines the dynamics of the effects of these factors on the rate of economic growth in Estonia and provides policy implications in line with sustained recovery. Design/methodology/approach: A nonlinear ARDL technique is employed in this study to investigate the long-run effects of FDI and the degree of tourism specialization on economic growth rate. Findings: Our findings indicate that the economic growth rate of Estonia in the long run has been positively affected by both the rate of FDI inflows and international tourism. Originality/value: This is the first study that employs a non-linear approach to investigate the dynamics of long-run effects of FDI and tourism specialization on the rate of economic growth in Estonia and provides policy implications in line with optimal growth strategy considering the economic structure, the current level of productivity and available potentials in this economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Using survey datasets, the purpose of this work explores the impact of economic freedom on the gender pay gap in the UK. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis combines Economic Freedom of the World data with the Understanding Society (USoc) Microdata series. Findings: The results document that economic freedom positively affects the gender pay gap. When the components of the index are considered, the findings indicate different effects of various types of policy, i.e. less government spending, stronger trade liberalization conditions and levels of corruption lead to higher gaps; stronger legal and property rights and a sounder money system have no impact on the gap. Moreover, a stronger impact in the manufacturing industry, part-time workers and those who work in the non-London regions is observed. Practical implications: The findings imply that reductions to government spending programmes can potentially aggravate the gap in hourly wages paid between males and females and should, therefore, be implemented. It may be also possible to provide females the training or education necessary to effectively compete in the workforce, before eliminating any spending programme they rely on. Originality/value: The first study explores the link between economic freedom and gender pay gap through a unique survey dataset with UK households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of economic growth, trade openness and manufacturing on CO2 emissions in India. Design/methodology/approach -- The study employed autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds test approach and uses CO2 emissions, trade, manufacturing and GDP per capita to examine the relationship using an annual time series data from World Development Indicators during 1971 to 2016. Findings -- Results depict that there exists a long-run relationship between CO2 emissions and other variables. Trade openness significantly reduces CO2 emissions, whereas manufacturing and GDP have a significant and positive impact on CO2 in the long run. Research limitations/implications -- The findings of the study contribute to the body of knowledge by providing new evidence on the relationship between developmental metrics and the environment. These findings are critical for policymakers and regulatory bodies to focus on economic development without jeopardizing environmental degradation. Practical implications -- In order to keep its commitment to sustainability, India needs to develop policies that encourage cleaner production methods and establishment of non-polluting industries. Simultaneously, it must disincentivize industries that emit CO2 by policy frameworks such as carbon taxes, pollution taxes or green taxes. Originality/value -- None of studies examine at how these environmental factors interact in India. Kilavuz and Dogan (2020) used the same variables, but their scope was limited to Turkey. As a result, the study is the first to examine this relationship for India, contributing to the body of knowledge on economic growth, manufacturing, trade openness and environmental concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Effective policy to support business ecosystems should build on evidence-based analyses of firm-level activities and outcomes. This paper aims to contribute to this requirement and makes three contributions. The first contribution is to extend the application of the network capital concept to a variety of eight distinct linkage categories (e.g. suppliers, customers and business support agencies) that support networking and clustering, in both activity and impact terms. The second contribution is outlining a novel method of network visualisation (V-LINC) based on the collection of primary and qualitative data. The third contribution is in applying the method to one cluster, information and communications technologies. Design/methodology/approach: Qualitative research on the nature and extent of organisational network linkages was undertaken. Structured interviews with a set of focal firms followed a tailored design approach. The concept of network capital was extended and applied to the cluster context by measuring network inputs and output (i.e. investments and impact). The approach was operationalised via a novel impact measurement approach, denoted as V-LINC, an acronym for visualising linkages in networks and clusters. Findings: The authors develop a business impact framework exploiting novel linkage visualisations and qualitative data from firms in a cluster in one city region across eight linkage types to capture distinct network capital elements. Organisational inputs into network development, measured as investment and involvement indicators and organisational outcomes from those networks, measured as importance and intensity indicators, are used to assess network performance. A comprehensive, systematic and robust analysis of network elements and performance is possible. Distance is found to interact differently across linkage types. Targeted recommendations may be made from the analysis of local or regional business ecosystems in light of measured business impacts of linkages. Research limitations/implications: Due to the resource-intensive nature of data collection, the current study engages a limited sample of firms and interviewees. Applications of this approach in other contexts will permit further research into its usefulness in evaluating business impacts generated through networking activities. Originality/value: The method introduced here (V-LINC) offers a novel means to include both geography network theory into an understanding of knowledge relationships and networks within clusters. Accounting for both distance and linkage type reveals which categories of intra-regional and extra-regional linkages generate the greatest impact, given their frequency. The approach adds to available cluster visualisation and analysis approaches through identifying patterns of disaggregated knowledge flows and their impacts, with application to evaluation demands of policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to determine the effects of the 2018–2020 China–US trade war on US farm bankruptcies as filed under Chapter 12. The key task is to identify the economic factors affecting farm bankruptcies generally, and to then control for the trade war impacts including the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), floods, agricultural conditions and the health of agricultural finance leading into the trade war. Design/methodology/approach: Results were obtained using ordinary least square regression and panel fixed effect model using bankruptcy rates and number as the dependent variable. Independent variables included market effects, credit conditions, yield variation, trade impacts, 2019 flooding, macroeconomic conditions and regional fixed effects. The authors use cubic splines to interpolate annual and quarterly data to a monthly base. Findings: Based on a fixed effect model, the authors find that all other things being equal the China–USA trade war would have had a significant impact on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies, increasing the bankruptcy rate by 25.7%. The flooding in 2009 had minor effects of increasing the rate by only 0.05%. The overall impact will, however be substantially lower than the 25.7% because of the MFP. The MFP variables (binary) had mixed effects and its true impact is unknowable at this time; however, the authors also find that a 1% increase in the producer price index decreases bankruptcy rates by 2.62% and farm bankruptcy numbers by 3.70%. Likewise a 1% increase in GDP reduces bankruptcies by 3.25%. These suggest that the MFP program will have likely reduced farm bankruptcies considerably than what would have occurred in their absence. The authors also find that states heavily dependent on trade faced lower market uncertainty. Broader economic factors (net charge-offs of farm loans held by insured commercial banks, US real GDP, the average effective interest rate on nonreal estate farm loans) affect farm bankruptcy. Research limitations/implications: The authors use monthly bankruptcy statistics, however not all data were available in monthly measures requiring interpolation using cubic spline functions to approximate monthly changes in some variables. Although the MFP had mixed effects in the model, the mid- to longer-term effects may be more impactful. These longer-term effects (and even shorter-term effects through 2020) are complicated by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which will require a different identification strategy than that employed in this paper. Originality/value: The analysis and results of this paper are, to the authors' knowledge, the first to investigate the impact of the China–US trade war on Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings. The use of cubic splines in the interpolation of agricultural data is also a technical innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study examines the long-run and short-run impact of demographic factors, i.e. life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio in determining the economic growth of South Asian countries. Design/methodology/approach: The theoretical foundation of the study relies on demographic transition theory and incorporates life expectancy, fertility rate and young dependency ratio into the production function by means of human capital component. The study uses annual panel data of four South Asian courtiers, i.e. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes panel ARDL model to analyze the long run and short run impact of demographic factors on economic growth. Findings: Results show that real stock of capital, fertility rate and life expectancy are positively related with economic growth, while an increase in young dependency ratio reduces economic growth in South Asian countries in the long run. Short-run dynamics show that real stock of capital and life expectancy have insignificant impact on economic growth, while young dependency ratio has negative and significant as well as life expectancy has positive and significant impact on economic growth in South Asian countries. Unidirectional causality exists from young dependency ratio and fertility rate to GDP per capita in the short run. Practical implications: Government has to design policies for better health and education facilities to yield high economic growth as well as better infrastructure and macroeconomic stability to facilitate capital accumulation in the region to foster economic growth. Originality/value: This study considerably adds into the existing literature by providing better understanding of various demographic aspects and their economic inference by highlighting the demographic changes that South Asia has endured. This study is also beneficial for policymakers and growth analysts in generating effective and sustainable policies regarding population dynamics and economic development of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Poor maintenance management leads to non-negligible economic, environmental and social impacts and obstacles to the sustainable manufacturing paradigm. Studies evaluating maintenance impacts on sustainability underline growing interest in the topic, but reports on the industrial field are lacking. Therefore, this paper investigates the industrial environment and the indicators that manufacturing companies use for measuring their maintenance impacts. Design/methodology/approach: In this pilot survey study, several stakeholders of production enterprises in the south of Italy were interviewed to unveil the spread of the measurement of maintenance impacts on sustainability and the indicators used by those companies. Findings: The interview results showed a low level of awareness among stakeholders about maintenance impacts on sustainability. Maintenance stakeholders are mainly focused on technical and economic factors, whereas environmental, quality and safety stakeholders are becoming more aware of maintenance impacts on environmental and social factors. However, both groups need guidelines to define sustainability indicators to assess such impacts. Originality/value: This exploratory study allowed us to investigate the current situation in industrial organisations and achieve the first variegated and diversified vision of the awareness of company stakeholders on maintenance impacts on the sustainability of several business functions. This paper provides a valuable contribution to "maintenance and sustainability" research area in production contexts and sheds light on non-negligible maintenance impacts on sustainability, providing preliminary insights on the topic and an effective basis for defining future research opportunities. Moreover, this study enables increased awareness among internal and external manufacturing company stakeholders on the role of maintenance in sustainable production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - This study aims to examine the impact of external debt on economic growth in Bangladesh within a broader macroeconomic scenario. Design/methodology/approach - In the process of doing so, it assesses the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics of the concerned variables for the period of 1980-2017 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. First, debt-gross domestic product linkage explores the impact of external debt impact on economic growth using a set of macro and country risk variables, and then this linkage is also analyzed along with a newly formed macroeconomic policy (MEP) variable using principal component analysis. Findings - The study results reveal the negative impact of external debt on GDP growth, but the larger positive impact of MEP index indicates that this adverse effect of debt can be mitigated or even nullified by sound MEP and appropriate human resource policy. Originality/value - The dynamic effects of different shocks (external debt and macro policy variable) on economic growth by vector autoregression impulse response function also confirm our ARDL findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to identify the impact of economic integration on trade competitiveness and demonstrate its effects on trade and investment performance of member nations. Design/methodology/approach: The study compiles some price indices to provide a systematic assessment of competitiveness in the BRICS region. The panel regression framework estimates the impact of integration on trade competitiveness and the external sector performance of BRICS nations. Findings: The findings of the research highlight the prospects for strong, closer and sustained integration in BRICS and, more importantly, the contribution of competitiveness to FDI receipts and export growth. Research limitations/implications: The assessment of exports and investment experiences of BRICS nations, particularly China and India, provides further evidence in support of the logical design and strategic use of their foreign trade policies. Originality/value: The economic partnership that wants to sustain this high road to global economic space needs strategic orientations to promote their partnership in other interest areas to make the cooperation more competitive in price terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of the green talent dividend on China's economic growth and regional differences using a theoretical derivation of the Cobb–Douglas production function. Design/methodology/approach: This study develops a measurement model with human capital based on Chinese inter-provincial panel data for 2001–2017, and analyzes the influences on economic growth of employees' education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs. The study explores the impact of the green talent dividend on regional economic growth for different regions. Findings: Employees' education level, per capita material capital, green labor participation rate and green jobs promote China's economic growth. The dependency ratio hinders economic growth. The green labor participation rate impacts economic growth more than green jobs do. Furthermore, the scale of green talent in China and its dividend effect are regionally unbalanced. Therefore, to fully release the dividend of green talent, the green labor participation rate should be improved to promote the rational flow of talent among regions. Practical implications: These findings shed light on the talent dividend, provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant talent policies, and show that the demographic dividend can be transformed into the green talent dividend, which has practical significance for the sustainable development of China's economy given its aging population. Originality/value: This study provides a macro perspective on the green talent dividend's impact on economic growth. The Cobb–Douglas production function in this study differs from the traditional micro perspective on green labor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the different factors affecting Sino-African trade based on the gravity model, and propose some solutions to improve the problems. Design/methodology/approach: The paper is based on an extended gravity model, including trade agreement and recession as explanatory variables. The impacts of trade agreement and economic recession on Sino-African imports and exports are examined. Findings: The results show that the product of GDP affects African exports to China significantly and negatively, and affects African imports from China positively. Real exchange rate affects African exports to China positively, and affects African imports from China negatively. Population affect African exports to China significantly and positively, and affect African imports from China positively. Recession have negative effects on both African imports from China and exports to China but is only significant for imports. Agreement affects African imports from China and exports to China positively. Our findings confirm the impact of economic recession, and imply that the structure of African product exported to China should be improved, and trade agreements should be reinforced. Originality/value: This paper contributes and extends the literature on Sino-African trade by improving the traditional gravity model to include the impact of all trade agreements, and their aggregating effects on trade. The paper also seeks to assess the trade impact of economic recession through a dynamic gravity model approach for which there has been no research done to our knowledge. In this regard, it provides new understanding of the trade pattern between China and Africa, and ways in improving the Sino-African bilateral trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The objective of the paper is to explore the out-of-sample forecasting connections in income growth across the globe. Design/methodology/approach: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is employed and the forecasting performance is analyzed across several horizons using different forecast combination techniques. Findings: Results show that the foreign country's income provides superior forecasts beyond what is provided by the country's own past income movements. Superior forecasting power is particularly held by Belgium, Korea, New Zealand, the UK and the US, while these countries' income is rather difficult to predict by global counterparts. Contrary to conventional wisdom, improved forecasts of income can be obtained even for longer horizons using our approach. Results also show that the forecast combination techniques yield higher forecasting gains relative to individual model forecasts, both in magnitude and the number of countries. Research limitations/implications: The forecasting paths of income movement across the globe reveal that predictive power greatly differs across countries, regions and forecast horizons. The countries that are difficult to predict in the short run are often seen to be predictable by global income movements in the long run. Practical implications: Even while it is difficult to predict the income movements at an individual country level, combining information from the income growth of several countries is likely to provide superior forecasting gains. And these gains are higher for long-horizon forecasts as compared to the short-horizon forecast. Social implications: In evaluating the forward-looking social implications of economic policy changes, the policymakers should also consider the possible global forecasting connections revealed in the study. Originality/value: Employing an ARDL model to explore global income forecasting connections across several forecast horizons using different forecast combination techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of remittances on the economic performance of the 16 Asian developing countries, taking account of their institutional qualities. Design/methodology/approach: A panel of 16 Asian developing countries (Central Asia, South Asia, and ASEAN) over the period of 2002–2016 is employed in the analysis. To assess the impact of remittances on economic performance in consideration of institutional quality, OLS estimates as well as GMM are used. Findings: The effect of remittances on economic growth is statistically significant. In addition, they also impact economic growth when they interact with institutional or financial development variables. For the long-run growth process of Central Asian, South Asian, and ASEAN countries, a sound and smooth institutional framework appears to be indispensable. Also, it was found that more fragile economies tend to achieve bigger growth than less fragile economies, as this kind of growth is triggered by more remittances flowing into fragile economies. However, the impact of remittances on growth does not depend on the level of ICT. FDI and financial development have positive impact on growth. Research limitations/implications: There are limitations to this research as well. Due to the unavailability of data, several countries had to be removed from this study. The cost of sending money might be an important variable for this study. However, the data on this variable from reliable sources are almost impossible to gather. Therefore, this variable is also not included in this research. The savings from remittances when intermediated through formal financial channels will, in fact, produce a positive allocation and distribution of resources that may eventually become an important source of growth. However, one precondition for larger and greater growth is that remittances need to be well and properly utilized by the financial sector. Therefore, quality institutions should be formed first, which can facilitate investment activities and make the flow of remittances more convenient. Originality/value: This paper exclusively considers the case of Asian developing countries (Central Asia, South Asia, and ASEAN) to assess the impact of remittances on the economic performance of these countries, with special consideration of the interaction effects of remittances and institutional quality in these emerging Asian economies. The previous studies on the effect of remittances on growth do not conform to one concrete conclusion. This study is undertaken in a bid to get the best possible result on the impact of remittances on the growth of the selected countries, majority of which attract substantial chunk of remittances into their economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Numerous randomized clinical studies have shown that psyllium fiber lowers serum cholesterol in patients with hyperlipidemia and is thus recognized by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a dietary fiber that may help reduce the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) by lowering cholesterol. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential economic implications for health-care cost savings and quality of life productivity gains if the cholesterol-lowering effect of psyllium, consumed daily as a fiber supplement, could be applied to a broad at-risk population. Design/methodology/approach: A cost-benefit analysis tool was used to examine evidence that the use of psyllium as a cholesterol-lowering agent can reduce overall CHD-attributed medical care service costs in the USA among those at high risk of experiencing disease-related events. Findings: Results of the analysis showed that the potential net annual avoided medical care service costs and annual quality of life productivity gains among US adults 45 and older with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels = 130 mg/dL could be up to an average of $870m per year from 2013 to 2020 if everyone in the target population used seven grams of soluble fiber from psyllium daily, corresponding to a net benefit-cost ratio of $1.19 savings in annual medical service cost and annual productivity gains per $1 spent on a psyllium regimen. Originality/value: Thus, the use of psyllium fiber as a daily supplement could be recommended as a means to help control the risk for potentially costly cardiovascular-related medical events and to maximize the economic potential for an improved quality of life in adults 45 and older with LDL cholesterol levels =130 mg/dL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of pensionomics as a prospective tool for pension evaluation. This paper suggests a paradigm shift -- a multi-disciplinary synthesis of differing perspectives in evaluating pension's overall performance based on past work on pension evaluation -- incorporating non-economic variables with significant impact on economic growth and social development. Design/methodology/approach -- This paper suggests a new analytical tool called "Pensions Consistency (PC) Index" that identifies the level of consistency and the strengths and weaknesses within any pension system. The new conceptual framework focusses on building inter-sectoral and holistic policies able to respond to the new multi-dimensional dynamic environment. Findings -- The consideration of pensionomics concept as an evaluation tool for pension schemes provides insights that are helpful in explaining performance differentials. Taking definition, classification and evaluation as a guiding principle, the new conceptual framework can be a useful point of reference for the overall evaluation of pension schemes, revealing deficiencies that traditional evaluation methods cannot detect. The multi-disciplinary approach focusses on building inter-sectoral and holistic policies that are able to respond to the multi-dimensional uncertainties of the new dynamic environment. Research limitations/implications -- The heterogeneity and complexity in event dynamics are systemic in the sense that the impact is far from linear. The idiosyncratic nature of unexpected and unpredictable events is rather a result of multi-dimensionality based, among others, on magnitude, frequency, timing, intensity and impact. It is plausible to argue that crisis episodes can destabilize critical systems of economic activity, producing economic spillovers that can directly or indirectly affect the sustainability of pension schemes. If the calculation of direct economic impact is readily traceable, the estimation of indirect economic impact can be an onerous task. Practical implications -- Pensionomics places the concept of retirement in a multi-disciplinary context. Pensionomics overcomes theoretical and empirical limitations encountered by the path-dependency perspective, developing a new research agenda to study pension schemes under historical, cultural, social, political, economic, political and environmental prism. Integrating diversified data, techniques, perspectives and concepts, pensionomics' objective is to connect natural and man-made events with social protection mechanisms for the development of a dynamic social protection framework where individual, community and society needs are met effectively and efficiently by implementing tailored policies, closely related to their specific context. Social implications -- The concept of retirement has evolved constantly, transforming societies and shaping both income and non-income dimensions of well-being. Pension entitlement turned gradually from a political discourse to a human right discourse. Pension schemes have extended the scope of insurance coverage beyond labour markets and the lifecycle, supporting the broader needs of entire population. Furthermore, pension schemes are widely acknowledged as drivers of economic growth: they enhance labour productivity; foster smooth consumption; and create a stable economic environment for investment and innovation. Current expectations require pension schemes to adopt proactive and reactive policies to examine options for mitigation or for modification of potential consequences in anticipation of exceptional events. Originality/value -- This paper suggests a paradigm shift, a multi-disciplinary approach called pensionomics, and this "multi-disciplinary" focus builds a new analytical framework to evaluate pension's overall performance based on past work on pension evaluation, incorporating non-economic variables with significant impact on economic growth and social development. PC-Index introduces a comprehensive evaluation tool to study the coverage, performance, efficiency, effectiveness, current trends and future possibilities of pension schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare the overall performance of the injection moulding process by using metallic inserts produced by both conventional technologies and selective laser melting (SLM). Design/methodology/approach: A systematic methodology is proposed for prior evaluation of the effectiveness of conformal cooling channels to reduce cycle time and/or to reduce the scrap rate. Findings: The mould was reengineered considering the SLM process and manufactured. Injection trials were carried out to validate expectations provided by injection simulations, which resulted on good quality parts and a significant decrease on cooling time, and, consequently, on the overall cycle time. The minimisation of scrap provided energy savings and time-to-market reduction. Research limitations/implications: The initial costs for AM tools still pose some doubts on decision-makers. The challenge of this study is to implement the methodology on a small-scale production and still ensure that benefits are achieved. Practical implications: The case study selected for this research work is based on a parking sensor housing, which is a plastic part assembled on the vehicle's front and rear bumpers, therefore, with aesthetics concerns. The part produced with the conventional mould exhibits surface defects that, to be minimised (not eliminated), require a longer packing time to diminish the sink marks. Social implications: The economic impact of the use of SLM is relevant despite the low batch size for the case study presented. Energy savings are achieved due to scrap reduction and shorter cycle time. Originality/value: The systematic methodology proposed for prior evaluation of the advantages of conformal cooling is possible to be applied both on small scale and high production series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of fossil fuel prices – crude oil, natural gas and coal – on different electricity prices in Mexico. The use of alternative variables for electricity price helps to increase the robustness of the analysis in comparison to previous empirical studies.Design/methodology/approach The authors use an unrestricted vector autoregressive model and the sample covers the period January 2006 to January 2016.Findings Empirical findings suggest that crude oil, natural gas and coal prices have a significant positive impact on electricity prices – domestic electricity rates – in Mexico in the short run. Furthermore, crude oil and natural gas prices have also a significant positive impact on electricity prices – commercial and industrial electricity rates.Originality/value Two are the main contributions. First, this paper explores the nexus among crude oil, natural gas, coal and electricity prices in Mexico, while previous studies focus on the US, UK and some European economies. Second, instead of using one electricity price as a reference of national or domestic electricity sector, the analysis considers alternative Mexican electricity prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the Brexit effect – pre-Brexit and post-Brexit referendum periods – on the co-movements between the British pound (GBP), the euro (EUR) and the yen (JPY) against the US dollar (USD).Design/methodology/approach To ascertain the asymmetric behavior of dynamic correlations, the authors use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model, the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (A-DCC) model and the diagonal BEKK model assuming Gaussian and Student's t distribution. Several dummy variables have been included in order to identify the main periods related to Brexit.Findings Findings show a negative impact of the pre-Brexit referendum period on the correlation between GBP and EUR, while there is no significant effect on GBP–JPY and EUR–JPY pairs. The loss of correlation in the GBP–EUR pairing has not recovered during the post-Brexit referendum period, which could be attributed to the uncertainty about the final impact of Brexit on British and Eurozone economies.Practical implications The loss of correlation in the GBP–EUR pair has important implications for individual investors, portfolio managers and traders with respect to hedging activities, international trading and investment strategies.Originality/value The results are the first to address how Brexit has impacted on the co-movements between exchange rates using different multivariate models that allow for correlations to change over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate how a drought which initially affects agricultural productivity can ultimately affect an entire economy. The study aims to assess the magnitude of the impact as well as highlight key issues that can inform the implementation of drought mitigation programmes.Design/methodology/approach The paper presents the literature on the economic impact of drought and uses a computable general equilibrium model where productivity shocks are applied to the agricultural industries following which the resulting impacts on the rest of the sectors of the economy are obtained.Findings The findings show that the key macroeconomic variables, namely, real GDP, industry output, employment, the trade balance and household consumption are negatively affected by the drought shock.Practical implications The results point to the fact that in the absence of drought mitigation mechanisms, the occurrence of even a short drought as modelled in this paper can impose substantial socioeconomic losses.Originality/value First, a general equilibrium framework which uses climate and economic data when evaluating the social-economic impacts of drought is used. Most studies employ partial equilibrium analysis in analysing drought impacts on specific sectors or crops within a limited geographical area. Others use global or multi-regional models which impose averages on the observed impacts. The current study provides valuable insights on the potential damage which droughts can impose on a single economy. This gives a basis for decision making to support drought mitigation policies and programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose Growing evidence suggests regional economic factors impact on individual outcomes, such as life expectancy and well-being. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact that player-specific and regional differences have on the number of senior international appearances football players accumulate over the course of their careers, for six UEFA member countries, from 1993 to 2014.Design/methodology/approach The research employs a Poisson regression model to analyse the impact of individual and regional factors on the number of senior international caps a footballer receives over the course of their career.Findings The results indicate that both individual and regional variables can explain the number of caps a player receives over the course of their career. The authors find that an individual’s career length positively influences the number of international caps accrued. Players born in wealthier and more populous regions accumulate a greater number of international appearances. Distance from the capital has no effect, however, the number of youth academies in the player’s region of birth has a significant positive effect.Research limitations/implications The analysis is limited to regional variations within economically developed states. It would be interesting to test whether the correlation between relative regional development and international success exists in less developed countries. The authors only address mens international football in this study and cannot comment on the generality of the findings across genders or sports.Practical implications The results can provide insights for local football authorities and policy makers concerned with regional characteristics and those interested in the development of elite talent.Originality/value This is the first study to analyse a pan-European data set, using an increasingly adopted econometric method to understanding regional economic development – Poisson modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]