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The Asian Financial Crisis during the late 1990 s revealed the fault lines of foreign currency loans of corporates. It starkly demonstrated that a combination of semi-pegged exchange rates and unregulated foreign currency borrowing could expose corporates and, subsequently, the entire economy to heightened vulnerability. To mitigate these risks, implementing certain capital account restrictions emerged as a potential remedy. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the changing contours of vulnerability arising from the rising foreign currency leverage of 818 non-financial corporates in India during 2004–2022. In particular, this paper examines the impact of exchange rate shocks and changes in certain key macroeconomic policy variables on the financial vulnerabilities of these firms. Our findings unequivocally indicate that during exchange rate depreciation, unhedged exposures significantly amplified the vulnerability of Indian firms. While our study centres on India, the overarching conclusions and insights derived from our analysis possess broader ramifications for emerging economies grappling with capital account restrictions. The policy implications of our research underscore the need to proactively strengthen the macroprudential toolkit to address the risks associated with foreign currency borrowing and ensure more robust risk management practices to prevent the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a continuous wavelet approach and deploy asymmetric, multi-horizon Granger-causality tests between the return series of the oil price and the India-US exchange rate, over the time-span 1980M1–2016M2. The results highlight important co-movements in the post-reform period, especially for the 2–4-years band. The wavelet Granger-causality tests show that the exchange rate Granger-causes the oil price in the long run, while the opposite applies in the short run. Moreover, we find that the Granger-causal relationship between variables is non-linear, asymmetric and indirect, which will help policymakers and traders to make better strategic and investment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The labour market for women in India's formal manufacturing sector experiences a simultaneous process of job destruction and creation. • Exchange rate depreciation leads to higher gross job creation rates but job destruction rates are insensitive to exchange rate changes. • Exchange rate depreciation increases gross and net job creation for men and women in states with flexible labour laws. • In states with inflexible labour laws, depreciation increases gross job creation for women (but not for men) with no effect on net job creation. • Firms use female workers as a 'buffer' to adjust the workforce in response to exchange rate fluctuations, particularly when labour laws are rigid. India's disappointing performance in creating productive employment for women, in spite of its increased integration with the world markets, contrasts with the experience of several countries in Asia. A number of studies have analysed the supply and demand side factors responsible for this situation. However, no study has examined the gender differences in job flows – job creation, destruction and reallocation. Net employment changes may conceal large changes in gross job flows and the associated adjustment costs. Using plant level panel data from India's formal manufacturing sector for the period 1998–2014, this paper estimates the magnitude of job flows and analyses the impact of industry-level changes in exchange rates on job flow dynamics of men and women across state-industries. Even as net employment grew sluggishly for women, we find that, the labour market was characterised by a simultaneous process of job destruction and creation. Our analysis provides evidence for an asymmetric impact of exchange rates on job flows, with depreciation (appreciation) resulting in higher (lower) gross job creation rates with no effect on job destruction rates. Exchange rate depreciation results in higher gross and net job creation rates for both men and women in states with flexible labour laws. In states with inflexible labour laws, however, depreciation causes an increase in gross job creation for women (but not for men) with no effect on net job creation. Exchange rate depreciation also causes women to face higher job reallocation than men, particularly in states with inflexible labour laws. Participation in global value chains and output tariff reductions are found to exacerbate the effects of exchange rate changes on women's job flows. Firms operating under rigid labour market conditions tend to employ female workers as a 'buffer' to adjust the workforce in response to short term fluctuations in export competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper analyzes the macroeconomic determinants of portfolio flows to India and finds that lower exchange rate volatility and greater risk diversification opportunities are conducive to portfolio flows. However, higher equity returns of other emerging markets discourage these flows. Other conventional determinants of portfolio flows are domestic equity performance, exchange rate, interest rate differential and domestic output growth. An analysis of disaggregated portfolio flows shows that determinants of FIIs are similar to aggregate portfolio flows, while ADR/GDRs are significantly influenced only by domestic equity returns, exchange rate, domestic output growth, and foreign output growth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This study probes crude oil price – exchange rate nexus for India using daily data for the time span July 2, 2007–November 28, 2008. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models have been employed to examine the impact of oil price shocks on nominal exchange rate. The study reveals that an increase in the oil price return leads to the depreciation of Indian currency vis-à-vis US dollar. The study also establishes that positive and negative oil price shocks have similar effects, in terms of magnitude, on exchange rate volatility and oil price shocks have permanent effect on exchange rate volatility. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The present study tries to examine the behaviour of various Indian interest rates such as call money rate, and yields on secondary market securities with maturity periods of 15–91 days, 1-year, 5-years and 10-years. In the first stage, the study investigates the determinants of interest rates and finds that although the interest rates depend on some domestic macroeconomic variables such as yield spread and expected exchange rate, they are mainly affected by the movements of international interest rates, although with some lags. The policy variables such as Bank Rate and Federal Funds Rate did not show any significant impact on any of the interest rates. Further, it was found that the interest rates in the very recent period show some cyclical movements similar to that of the developed countries. Future behaviour of interest rates show that the present cycle of each interest rate would peak at different time points. This expected behaviour in domestic interest rates could be due to the integration of the domestic economy with the international money and financial market. This trend may be same in most of the emerging economies of Asia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study estimates the balance of trade model on Indian data from 1960 to 1995 using a reduced-form specification similar to Rose [J. Int. Economics, 30 (1991) 301]. The results show that the real exchange rate (trade weighted) and domestic income play a significant, while the world income plays an insignificant or a less significant role in affecting the balance of trade in India. The trade effects of real exchange rate are different from those of nominal exchange rate. The study suggests the need to monitor the real rather than nominal exchange rate, and in this major focus is required on weighted and more specifically the trade weighted real effective exchange rate. Besides, the devaluation-based adjustment policies need to be supplemented by stabilisation policies to ensure domestic price stability and achieve the desired effects of nominal exchange rate changes (devaluation) on the balance of trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impact of oil prices on real exchange rates in China and India. We employ the non-linear, autoregressive-distributed lag model advanced by Shin et al. (2014), which allows both short-run and long-run asymmetry pass-through to a variable of interest. Oil prices and exchange rates are frequently found to be noisy. In order to detect the accurate relationship between oil prices and exchange rates, the maximum overlap, discrete-wavelet transformation is used to remove noise from the original series. The dynamic relationship between the original and de-noised series is compared. Our empirical findings suggest only long-run asymmetric effects of oil prices on exchange rates for both countries; however, after time-series noise removal, the asymmetric long-run effect becomes symmetric for India. Policy implications also are included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]