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• During 1993–2018, market services grew at a faster rate than non-market services. • Applying Domar weights we observed that transport and storage was the highest contributor among market services industries, while public administration has made relatively higher contribution to aggregate non-market services TFP growth. • TFP growth in manufacturing has a significant positive effect on TFP growth of both market services and non-market services. • Market services TFP growth is positively impacted by a spillover effect of TFP growth in India's trade partners. The services have been the driver of India's overall growth since the onset of economic reforms in the 1990s. The value-added share of services increased from 41 percent in 1990 to 53 percent in 2018. On average, the sector grew at 7.5 percent annually during 1993–2018, contributing to about half of the aggregate economic growth. Using the India KLEMS data, we examine the trends in total factor productivity (TFP) in individual industries within services and their contribution to aggregate TFP growth in the sector during 1993–2018. We find that transport and storage was the highest contributor among various market services industries followed by financial services, while public administration made a relatively high contribution to aggregate non-market services TFP growth. Moreover, we investigate the factors driving TFP growth in the services sector, particularly the role of manufacturing TFP – looking into spillover effect from manufacturing to market services and non-market services. Our results suggest that TFP growth in manufacturing had a significant positive impact on TFP growth in the services sector. Also, we find evidence of significant productivity spillover effect to India's services sector from other countries, particularly the developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study makes an attempt to contribute to the ongoing policy debate on whether OFDI has a complementary or substitution effect on domestic investment and hence, growth. For the purpose, the current paper uses panel data analysis to understand the impact of OFDI for 14 emerging economies in the period 1981–2019. We supplement the cross-country evidence with a time series analysis for India, given that FDI outflows from the country have been steadily increasing over the years. The results confirm the positive effect of OFDI on economic growth, but the substitution effect for domestic investment. This indicates that the OFDI positively affects growth through its effect on trade and other positive spillover effect, rather than domestic investment. However, in case of India, the findings support the complementary effect of OFDI on domestic investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the effects of globalization, financial development, economic growth, and energy consumption on environmental sustainability in India over the period 1980–2015. The novelty of the study is the assessment of environmental sustainability in a single framework encompassing globalization, financial development, and growth effects. Findings reveal that an increased level of globalization and financial development while improving economic performance are inimical to the sustainability of the environment. In the short-run, globalization, economic growth, and increased energy consumption are contributing directly to environmental degradation, while banking sector development is impacting environmental sustainability adversely through the economic growth channel. Given the severity of the findings amidst India's tryst with economic growth, proactive policies are warranted to encourage adaptation of greener and cleaner technologies in environmentally sustainable areas. This necessitates improved institutional quality encompassing stringent environmental standards, legal systems, property rights, corruption, financial information quality, etc., alongside the provision of incentives and subsidies to manufacturing firms undertaking technological innovations and complying with the environmental standards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For India, achieving environmental sustainability in the midst of faster growth remains a challenging objective. Therefore, we are revisiting the nature of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) at different stages of economic growth through both necessary and sufficient conditions under the cubic model specifications in India. Further, we extend the EKC framework by incorporating energy consumption, agricultural value added, trade, the world uncertainty index, and geopolitical risk as additional variables into the three preferred disaggregated greenhouse gas emission (GHG) models. This study employs an auto-regressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The empirical findings show evidence of the valid N-shaped EKC through both necessary and sufficient conditions for carbon dioxide (CO 2) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and exhibit the presence of two real and distinct income turning points for both valid EKCs. In contrast, only the necessary condition supports the N-shaped EKC for methane (CH 4) emissions in India. Further, the results highlight that trade has a positive impact, whereas the world uncertainty index has a negative impact on disaggregated GHGs. Similarly, geopolitical risk has a negative effect on CH 4 and N 2 O, whereas energy consumption has a positive impact on CO 2 emissions. Moreover, agricultural value added has a negative effect on CH 4 and a positive effect on N 2 O emissions. Our empirical findings suggest policy recommendations that can collectively work as a roadmap for India to become emission-neutral by 2070. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is the first to analyse Indian electricity demand at both the aggregate and sectoral levels between 1981 and 2020. We use a novel autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) cointegration test in the presence of unknown structural breaks. While the income elasticity is close to one in the residential and industrial sectors, it is greater than one in the aggregate and commercial sectors. These results reveal that economy-wide electricity intensity rises with economic expansion in India. The price elasticity is negative and smaller than one in absolute value in the aggregate sector (−0.66), the residential sector (−0.83), and the industrial sector (−0.63), but it is statistically insignificant in the commercial sector. These estimates allow us to provide sector-specific information for policy design and implementation in the power market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern economic growth paradigm significantly relies on natural endowments. Solar energy as a perpetual source has the potential in reducing the ecological footprint, which has been overlooked in the empirical literature. We assess the dynamic impact of solar energy consumption on ecological footprints by applying quantile on quantile (QQ) regression in the context of the top ten solar energy-consuming countries. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that solar energy use mitigates ecological footprints at various quantiles for all sample countries except India and the United Kingdom. Overall relation is more profound at higher quantiles of solar energy and lower quantiles of ecological footprint. The bidirectional quantile Granger-causality analysis confirms a somewhat feedback effect of the ecological footprint on solar energy. Our empirical evidence emphasizes that solar energy should be integrated into the sustainable growth agenda. Image 1 • This study investigates the dynamic impact of solar energy on ecological footprints. • This study considers the top ten solar energy-consuming countries. • Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) regression is applied in the presence of the extreme observations. • Solar energy is found to be an effective mitigation measure in reducing ecological footprints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several economists assume natural resources as crucial and essential for economic growth. However, the other group of researchers questions the role and states that richness of natural resources does not guarantee economic growth. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the effect of natural resources on economic growth using time series data from 1970 to 2018. The current study has applied a novel methodology of quantile-on-quantile regression in top five selected Asian economies which have the most natural resources in the region. The findings confirm that natural resources have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in all countries, except India. The findings confirm that the effect of natural resources on economic growth is negative and significant in the Indian economy. The findings affirm that in most of the countries, the results are significant and positive on the high quantiles of natural resources and economic growth, suggesting that the higher the rent of natural resources leads to the higher the economic performance of five selected Asian economies. Based on the findings, government and policymakers are recommended to formulate the policy that provides a platform to use the NR in a better and efficient manner, which can help the country to boost the economic performance. Image 1 • Natural resources are crucial and essential for economic growth. • The study examines the effect of natural resources on economic growth using time series data from 1970 to 2018. • A novel methodology of quantile-on-quantile regression is applied. • Top five selected Asian economies which have the most natural resources in the region were selected. • The findings confirm that natural resources have a positive and significant impact on economic growth, except India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecologically unequal exchange theory posits asymmetric net flows of biophysical resources from poorer to richer countries. To date, empirical evidence to support this theoretical notion as a systemic aspect of the global economy is largely lacking. Through environmentally-extended multi-regional input-output modelling, we provide empirical evidence for ecologically unequal exchange as a persistent feature of the global economy from 1990 to 2015. We identify the regions of origin and final consumption for four resource groups: materials, energy, land, and labor. By comparing the monetary exchange value of resources embodied in trade, we find significant international disparities in how resource provision is compensated. Value added per ton of raw material embodied in exports is 11 times higher in high-income countries than in those with the lowest income, and 28 times higher per unit of embodied labor. With the exception of embodied land for China and India, all other world regions serve as net exporters of all types of embodied resources to high-income countries across the 1990–2015 time period. On aggregate, ecologically unequal exchange allows high-income countries to simultaneously appropriate resources and to generate a monetary surplus through international trade. This has far-reaching implications for global sustainability and for the economic growth prospects of nations. • We provide empirical evidence that supports the theory of ecologically unequal exchange. • High-income nations are net importers of embodied materials, energy, land, and labor. • High-income nations gain a monetary trade surplus via this resource appropriation. • Lower-income nations provide resources but experience monetary trade deficits. • The observed inequality is systemic and hampers global sustainability in multiple ways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circular economy (CE) focuses on a circular approach to energy and material resources, which provides economic, environmental and social benefits for manufacturing organisations. CE adoption in emerging economies facilitates in substantial economic growth through appropriate utilisation of energy and material resources across manufacturing industries. This study identifies CE indicators in the context of an emerging economy. The study further develops a framework for the adoption of CE and tests it through a hybrid Best Worst Method and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory approach. The framework is validated through an Indian manufacturing case organisation. While Best Worst Method computes the CE related indicator weights, Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory analyses the inter-relationship among indicators. Disparate CE related indicators, e.g. strategic, managerial, informational and technological, supply chain and organisational, influence the CE adoption in an emerging economy context. The findings reveal that the strategic and managerial indicators have the strongest influence on developing other indicators. The causal digraph and relationship diagram assist the practitioners in predicting the inter-relationship of indicators in CE adoption. The study outcomes will help the practitioners, policymakers and researchers to draw a framework for adoption of circular and green practices and usage of resources sustainably. Image 1 • Provide 31 circular economy (CE) indicators. • Propose a framework to improve CE adoption process. • Explores a case analysis of an Indian manufacturing industry. • Analyse the proposed framework through hybrid BWM-DEMATEL approach. • Demonstrate intensity and inter-relationships among the CE indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Added global carbon emissions have mainly come from China and India since 2012, which indicates importance of two countries in curbing global CO 2 emissions. Thus, their respective mitigation lessons have more realistic significance in developing more effective mitigation strategy. This study compared the dynamic evolution of their CO 2 emissions and driving factors behind changes, in order to find similarities and differences of two countries, and provide available policy implications to further reduce carbon emissions. Firstly, both China's and India's carbon emissions have been increasing during 2000-14: 3.4–9.9 Gt and 0.9–2.0 Gt, respectively. However, tendency of two countries varied differently: growth of China 's CO 2 have slowed down after the 2008 financial crisis, while India 's emissions were still accelerating at a high level on account of growing share of carbon-intensive energy in the whole energy structure. From the national and sectoral perspectives, both trends of carbon emissions from two countries have been analyzed. According to structural decomposition analysis, efficiency gains and slowdown of economic growth in China contributed to most decline of CO 2 but both production and consumption structures urged emissions up, while structure effects in India slightly reduced its CO 2 but low emission efficiency and expansion of trade scales caused growth of emissions. On this basis, firstly, China should optimize production structures by upgrading industries, while India should promote energy transformation and improve energy efficiencies. Secondly, strengthening cooperation and communications with developed countries with advanced technology and experience may make more progress in climate change for two countries. Experience and lessons of emission reduction deriving from the two would also provide references for other regions. Image 1 • Investigating CO 2 emissions of China and India for 2000–2014. • Explore main sources and sectors that dominated CO 2 emissions. • Improving efficiency and optimizing energy structure offset China's emission growth. • Optimizing its consumption structure offset India's emission growth. • Optimizing their consumption structure should be considered in China and India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A boom in renewable energy consumption as a percentage of final energy consumption (REC) has a significant impact on cleaner production and environmental sustainability. However, studies on REC as for an individual country-case and panel case approach for top emitters are rare. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the long-run drivers of REC by using a time series data from 1990 to 2015. The FMOLS-grouped results indicate that economic growth and trade openness increase REC whereas population growth has a negative but significant impact on REC. To check for causal links, the innovating accounting approach using variance decomposition analysis is applied. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth, trade openness, and population growth to REC. Further, the predictive accuracy of the FMOLS based econometric output and the bi-directional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) is analyzed. The Bi-LSTM formulated algorithm outperformed the econometric output. The Bi-LSTM is utilized to forecast REC to the year 2030. The output from the Bi-LSTM shows that China, the US, India, the Russian Federation's, and Japan's REC will hit ∼11.3395, ∼11.1245, ∼34.6969, ∼2.9097, and ∼7.4859, respectively. The US and Japan's REC levels will increase while that of China, India, and Russia Federation will decrease. As a policy implication, new policy directives for China, India, and the Russian Federation are required to boost REC levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the potential impact of promoting non-fossil fuel energy on India's economic growth in a regime based non-linear asymmetric framework. The empirical outcomes affirm regime-shift and asymmetric cointegrating links of the non-fossil fuel energy usage represented by combustible renewables & waste (CREW) and alternative & nuclear energy (ANEN) with the gross domestic product (GDP). The study establishes the existence of threshold cointegration between CREW and GDP. The causal links between CREW and GDP are regime variant and asymmetric, whereas the dynamics between ANEN and GDP are proven to be asymmetric and regime invariant. CREW and GDP supports a feedback hypothesis in a normal regime and a conservation hypothesis in a rare regime. The asymmetric causality between CREW and GDP validates an inverse feedback hypothesis and a negative growth hypothesis. A negative growth hypothesis is also ascertained between ANEN and GDP. The empirical findings convey meaningful insights for government and policymakers. • Examines the link between non-fossil fuel energy and economic activity in India. • Regime shifts, threshold and asymmetric cointegration found. • Feedback hypothesis in a normal regime is demonstrated in long run. • Positive change in combustible renewables & waste causes economic growth adversely. • Negative changes in alternative & nuclear energy drives positive economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrated analysis of passenger and freight transport in India. • Policy-relevant pathways derived using soft-coupled models. • Considerable fuel-import foreign exchange savings off-setting high investments. • Over 80% GHG emission reduction possible in 2050 below business-as-usual scenario. Dependence on crude oil imports, high correlation with economic growth, and contribution to air pollution cause the transformations in transport sector in India to have significant ramifications. Moreover, these transitions are to be steered through the global and domestic sustainable development and carbon neutrality goals. In this paper, we determine the energy-environment-economy implications of transport sector dynamics by undertaking an integrated analysis using a novel methodological approach involving two main aspects: soft-coupling the IMACLIM-IND and AIM/Enduse models; and back-casting approach with long-term benchmarks. We examine four scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), development first (DEVF), carbon neutrality (CNT) and synchronous (SYNCH). Our synchronous scenario pathway reduces the crude oil and natural gas imports by 68% for the year 2050 compared to 2012 in the BAU scenario, leading to foreign exchange saving of 5.8 trillion US$ during 2013–2050. The envisioned transitions necessitate formulation of strategic policies which provide equitable access of transportation to all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Karnataka is a highly progressive and rapidly growing state in India, with huge potential for industrial growth, however, it grapples with power deficits and other problems in electricity sector, which make it a good case study for Indian electricity sector. Given the importance of electricity in the urbanisation and growth process, the paper analyses the electricity consumption trend in Karnataka, examine its causality with economic growth at aggregate and sectoral levels using Granger causality test, and forecast the future electricity consumption applying Holt-Winters smoothening (no seasonality) technique. The general trend reflects higher consumption by the agricultural consumers, compared to the revenue-generating 'Industries' and 'Commercial' categories, mainly due to the policy of de-metering and providing 'free' power to agricultural consumers since late 1980s. The Granger causality tests reveal that there is no causality relation (neutrality hypothesis) between electricity consumption and economic growth in Karnataka, for total, agricultural and industrial consumption. This basically stems from the inaccurate measurements of agricultural consumption, higher dependence on captive generation, and poor quality grid supply. Finally, electricity consumption is predicted to be around 69,347 GW h by 2019−20. Future policies should focus on universal metering, reducing cross-subsidization, supplying good quality and reliable power to all sectors, and economical planning of resource-mix to achieve adequate, productive and efficient electricity consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]