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In 2014, FERC adopted a new theory of capital markets for the purpose of setting authorized returns-on-equity: that all observed dividends and interest rates were anomalous and therefore unreliable indicators of the returns necessary for investors to hold the stocks and bonds of transmission owners. The new theory, used to justify higher authorized ROEs, rejected evidence of fundamental conditions in capital markets and explicitly adopted arguments by investor-owned utilities regarding unreliable markets. After a judicial remand, FERC abandoned the new theory, but consumers in New England and the Midwest were arbitrarily charged hundreds of millions of dollars over several years due to unjust and unreasonable rates for transmission service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper considers a multidimensional risk model with an investment return process modelled by a general càdlàg process. • The claim sizes from different lines of business are distributed according to the multivariate regular variation. • Conditions are proposed that can guarantee the uniformity of three types of ruin probabilities for the entire time horizon. • The conditions proposed are weak enough to be satisfied by some stochastic processes, such as the Lévy process, Vasicek model, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, Heston model, and Stochastic volatility model. Consider an insurer with d lines of business and the freedom to make risk-free and risky investments. The investment portfolio price process is described as a general càdlàg process. It is assumed that the claim sizes from different lines of business and their common inter-arrival times form a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random pairs, each pair obeying a particular dependence structure. With this dependence structure, claim sizes from different lines of business are distributed according to the multivariate regular variation. This paper proposes conditions that can be satisfied by several important stochastic processes, including the Lévy process, Vasicek interest rate model, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate model, Heston model, and Stochastic volatility model. Under these conditions, the uniform asymptotic expansions of ruin probabilities are derived, which hold uniformly for the entire time horizon. Numerical examples are provided as a means of illustrating the main results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Litigating return on equity disputes exposes public utilities to substantial uncertainty in today’s market and regulatory environment. Anomalous capital market conditions have led some regulators to modify their approaches to assessing ROE and to consider alternative metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the liquidity preference hypothesis (LPH) for the term structure of interest rates in a different way. Instead of using bond returns as traditional approaches, we use interest rate surveys with market expectations in order to evaluate LPH. This approach allows us to disentangle the effect of the changes in interest rate expectations from the liquidity premium. We found empirical support for the LPH with Brazilian data using both traditional and survey methods. However, the evaluation with interest rate surveys gives a higher statistical confidence level than the traditional approach when we perform tests for term premium monotonicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we show that the degree of central bank independence influences the optimal choice of monetary policy strategy during potentially unsustainable asset price booms. We assume that central bankers have to choose between a policy that preemptively raises short-term real interest rates in the boom phase to prevent the build-up of a financial market crisis scenario and the cleaning-up strategy that ignores its impact on the likelihood of a future crisis. We find that the more independent central bankers are, the more likely it is that they refrain from implementing preemptive monetary tightening to maintain financial stability. These results stand in sharp contrast with the seemingly predominant view that central bank independence fosters financial stability. The intuition underlying these results is that a preemptive interest rate hike gives rise to, among other things, a lower inflation rate in the boom period. Whether this disinflation creates additional costs or benefits depends on the degree of central bank independence. It can benefit dependent central bankers who otherwise would suffer from a higher inflation bias; however, for independent central bankers, this disinflation leads to an undesirable undershooting of their inflation target. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article develops the relationships among real business cycle (RBC) theory, Austrian business cycle (ABC) theory, and Minsky''s financial instability hypothesis (FIH). In RBC models, recessions are caused on the supply side by random technology shocks which are independent of monetary policy. However, in ABC models, credit expansion results in negative productivity shocks, as the marginal return on investment is lowered and the production structure is extended by commitment to more capital-intensive activities. Thus, ABC theory helps resolve several problems with RBC theory. The FIH describes a process of endogenous overleveraging which unsustainably overvalues assets and exposes the financial sector to greater risk. This paper argues that the overleveraging described by the FIH is compatible with the unsustainable expansion of production described in ABC theory, and further argues that credit expansion would both provide additional funds to finance overleveraging, as well as encourage the process by making it cheaper with lower interest rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of higher education qualifications on the earnings of graduates in the U.K. by subject studied. We use data from the recent U.K. Labour Force Surveys which provide a sufficiently large sample to consider the effects of the subject studied, class of first degree, and postgraduate qualifications. Ordinary Least Squares estimates show high average returns for women that does not differ by subject. For men, we find very large returns for Law, Economics and Management but not for other subjects. Degree class has large effects in all subjects suggesting the possibility of large returns to effort. Postgraduate study has large effects, independently of first degree class. A large rise in tuition fees across all subjects has only a modest impact on relative rates of return suggesting that little substitution across subjects would occur. The strong message that comes out of this research is that even a large rise in tuition fees makes little difference to the quality of the investment – those subjects that offer high returns (LEM for men, and all subjects for women) continue to do so. And those subjects that do not (especially OSSAH for men) will continue to offer poor returns. The effect of fee rises is dwarfed by existing cross subject differences in returns. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Difference between the discount rate on consumption and the rate of return on investment is often taken to prevent the former's being used as a social discount rate. Yet techniques have long been known for incorporating both these rates in a shadow price of investment funds. Assumptions about the proportion of investment revenues saved and reinvested are crucial in determining whether a low discount rate favours or discriminates against long-term environmental values. Even a moderate saving rate may make the shadow price of funds indefinitely large. The conceptually correct discount rate then becomes the growth rate of investment funds, and the relative value of environmental effects becomes zero. Stochastic variation in rate of return makes this result more likely. Such an outcome may be avoided by setting reinvestment to zero, or assuming convergence of rates of return and discount, but no firm justification exists for these stratagems. However, various reasonable assumptions about environmental costs – especially, that they embody an investment element, or require adequate compensation to be paid – may make such costs indefinite also, and therefore capable of standing against indefinite values of investible funds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A first order linear differential equation is used to describe the dynamics of an investment fund that promises more than it can deliver, also known as a Ponzi scheme. The model is based on a promised, unrealistic interest rate; on the actual, realized nominal interest rate; on the rate at which new deposits are accumulated and on the withdrawal rate. Conditions on these parameters are given for the fund to be solvent or to collapse. The model is fitted to data available on Charles Ponzi’s 1920 eponymous scheme and illustrated with a philanthropic version of the scheme. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Patchouli oil is a commercially important essential oil in the flavor and fragrance industry. In this study, a technoeconomic feasibility assessment was conducted to commission a supercritical fluid extraction plant for the extraction of patchouli oil in Singapore. The study revealed that the manufacturing cost for patchouli oil is 53.87 USD/kg for a plant processing capacity of 400,000 kg of raw material/year with the cost of utilities being a major contributing factor to the manufacturing cost. In addition, financial indicators such as net present value, discount cash flow rate of return, return on investment and payback period have been applied to evaluate the profitability of the supercritical fluid extraction plant. The total investment cost for the plant is around 4.77 million USD. Calculation of the discounted cash flow rate of return shows that a maximum interest rate of 26.3% can be loaned from investors and the project would still breakeven. At an interest rate of 5.25%, the return on investment for the project is calculated to be 27.4% and the payback time is estimated to be 5.4 years with a total profit of 5.27 million USD after 10 years. [Display omitted] • Cost estimation and profitability analysis were applied on the SFE of patchouli oil. • Specific cost of manufacturing for patchouli oil was 53.87 USD/kg. • Cost of utilities is the largest contributor in the COM of patchouli oil. • Difference between selling price and patchouli oil COM showed economic feasibility. • Profitability study presented 27.4% ROI and payback time of 5.4 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a metric commonly used in the academic literature. Electricity-supply projects can be financed by the project developer, equity partners, or through debt, with the timing of investments and returns different for all three. The LCOE metric is equally applicable to all three sources of financing although the calculation does not explicitly represent these differences in timing. The LCOE metric implicitly assumes that surplus revenue earned during the operation of a powerplant can be re-invested with a rate of return equal to the return on equity, an assumption that is not valid. A modified LCOE equation that accounts for this difference and for steadily declining output and increasing O&M costs is presented here. The errors entailed in using a simple weighting of the returns to equity and debt (the weighted average cost of capital, WACC) in the non-linear LCOE equation entails an error of less than 0.5% if the interest rate on surplus revenues equals the discount rate. Otherwise, it is necessary to separately consider the equity and debt financing portions (even if returns to equity and debt are the same, as the modified LCOE equation applies only to the debt portion). • The LCOE equation is equally applicable to alternative financing structures. • A modified LCOE equation accounts for interest rate differing from discount rate. • A modified LCOE equation accounts for increasing O&M costs and declining output. • Use of WACC should be abandoned in favor of separate debt and equity calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]