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Landslides are common across Canada and they pose hazards to human safety, economic activities, and the environment. Robust risk management strategies are necessary for sustainable development. A slope risk management framework has been adopted by the geotechnical community for approximately four decades allowing a systematic, consistent and transparent framework for managing risks. Implementing this framework is associated with uncertainties embedded in our estimates of risk. This paper presents a brief summary of the sources and categories of uncertainty in geotechnical slope engineering and focuses on two topics: (1) estimates of uncertainty in risk calculations and (2) temporal changes in landslide likelihood as a function of weather and steps towards estimating landslide risk changes with climate change. The paper argues that a quantitative risk assessment should not focus on the final risk calculation, but the overall knowledge gained. This allows comprehensive documentation of sources of uncertainty and how they impact geotechnical and risk assessments. Furthermore, the paper outlines approaches to define quantitative correlations between rock fall occurrences and weather, which can be leveraged to estimate changes in rock fall risk with climate change. The paper corresponds to, and expands on, the 2021 Canadian Geotechnical Colloquium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive 14C dating and botanical identification of charcoal fragments located in the organic surface soil layer and buried in the mineral podzolic solum were used to reconstruct the successional pathways of a balsam fir forest site. The studied forest site developed in a context of continuous fire disturbance over the last 9000 years with at least 26 fires occurring at a mean interval of 330 years. Tree vegetation of the site followed a four-step trajectory consisting of an early-Holocene spruce forest and a late-Holocene mixedwood balsam fir forest. Boreal-like spruce-birch and temperate-like white pine-birch forests dominated the site between 7900 and 5900 cal. B.P. and 5600 and 1275 cal. B.P., respectively. Because all forest types developed repeatedly after fire since early deglaciation, changes in forest composition, in particular the shift of white pine forest to balsam fir forest, and concurrent decline of birch (yellow birch and/or paper birch) and pine populations were most likely related to progressive cooler and wetter conditions from mid- to late Holocene. Fire disturbance on this part of the southern boreal biome has been a continuous, positive regenerative process over the Holocene, allowing the successional turnover of boreal and temperate trees under the influence of climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's climate is warming at a rate about double the global average, leading to potential negative impacts on public infrastructures such as jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP). In light of this reality of changing climate, the work contained in this paper is aimed at evaluating JPCP's early-age behaviour in response to environmental conditions. HIPERPAV® software and the associated models developed by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) were used to identify cracking potential. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effect of different levels of air temperature, mix temperature, base layer temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. Additionally, projected extreme temperatures predicted by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM) were used to determine the relative impact of climate change on cracking risk. The results demonstrated the increased cracking risk under changing climate in several Canadian cities by mid-century and highlighted the importance of developing a pathway forward for climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quebec's forests represent 20% of Canadian forests and 2% of the world forests. Over the entire planet, forests play a major role in habitat preservation and in supplying goods and services to the population. However, climate change will have an impact on the forest through inter alia increased droughts, forest fires, warmer weather, and infestations. In this paper, we analyze the economic impact of climate change on the forest industry in Quebec over a 40-year period using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We find that the climate change effects will be relatively weak on most macroeconomic variables as agents adjust their behavior over time and factors are reallocated across sectors. We find that climate change could generate losses in gross domestic product of up to Can$300 million (0.12% of gross domestic product) at the end of a 40-year period for Quebec's economy. However, we find relatively more important effects within the sectors of the forest industry, with losses ranging from 3% to 7.5%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies and characterizes current knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability for Canada's northern coastline, outlining key research gaps. Warming temperatures and increased precipitation have been documented across the northern coast, with the rate of sea ice decline ranging from 2.9% to 10.4% per decade. Storm intensity and frequency is increasing, and permafrost is warming across the region. Many of these changes are projected to accelerate in the future, with in excess of 8 °C warming in winter possible under a high-emission scenario by 2081-2100. Vulnerability to these changes differs by region and community, a function of geographic location, nature of climate change impacts, and human factors. Capacity to manage climate change is high in some sectors, such as subsistence harvesting, but is being undermined by long-term societal changes. In other sectors, such as infrastructure and transportation, limitations in climate risk management capacity result in continuing high vulnerabilities. There is evidence that adaptation is taking place in response to experienced and projected impacts, although readiness for adaptation is challenged by limited resources, institutional capacity, and a need for support for adaptation across levels of government. Priority areas for future research include ( i) expanding the sectoral and geographic focus of understanding on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability; ( ii) integrating climatic and socio-economic projections into vulnerability and adaptation assessments; ( iii) developing an evidence base on adaptation options; and ( iv) monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation support. Cross-cutting themes for advancing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research on the north coast more broadly include the need for greater emphasis on interdisciplinary approaches and cross-cultural collaborations, support for decision-orientated research, and focus on effective knowledge mobilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal zone and its ecosystems provide numerous provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services. Because of its resources and its hydroelectric potential, Canada's boreal zone is important to the country's resource-based economy. The region presently occupied by Canada's boreal zone has experienced dramatic changes during the past 3 million years as the climate cooled and repeated glaciations affected both the biota and the landscape. For about the past 7000 years, climate, fire, insects, diseases, and their interactions have been the most important natural drivers of boreal ecosystem dynamics, including rejuvenation, biogeochemical cycling, maintenance of productivity, and landscape variability. Layered upon natural drivers are changes increasingly caused by people and development and those related to human-caused climate change. Effects of these agents vary spatially and temporally, and, as global population increases, the demands and impacts on ecosystems will likely increase. Understanding how humans directly affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Canada's boreal zone and how these effects and actions interact with natural disturbance agents is a prerequisite for informed and adaptive decisions about management of natural resources, while maintaining the economy and environment upon which humans depend. This paper reports on the genesis and present condition of the boreal zone and its ecosystems and sets the context for a detailed scientific investigation in subsequent papers published in this journal on several key aspects: carbon in boreal forests; climate change consequences, adaptation, and mitigation; nutrient and elemental cycling; protected areas; status, impacts, and risks of non-native species; factors affecting sustainable timber harvest levels; terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity; and water and wetland resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyses of climate change and the forest sector have identified the importance of individual actors, institutions, and organizations within communities for effective adaption and climate mitigation. Yet, there remains little recognition of how the internal dynamics of these institutions and organizations are influenced by gender and other social considerations such as age and culture. Research from developing countries and cognate resource sectors suggests that these considerations are critical for enhancing local adaptive capacity. Despite extensive review of forestry research across North America and western Europe, we found almost no research that addresses how differential social capabilities within forest-based communities affect adaptation to climate change. In this paper, we document the potential that gender sensitivity might provide to conceptions and practical applications of adaptive capacity and identify four types of research opportunities to address this gap: ( i) developing disaggregated capitals frameworks; ( ii) creating inclusive models; ( iii) informing social planning; and ( iv) understanding gender mainstreaming. Research focused on these opportunities, among others, will provide more robust theoretical understanding of adaptive capacity and strategic interventions necessary for effective adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]