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Quebec's forests represent 20% of Canadian forests and 2% of the world forests. Over the entire planet, forests play a major role in habitat preservation and in supplying goods and services to the population. However, climate change will have an impact on the forest through inter alia increased droughts, forest fires, warmer weather, and infestations. In this paper, we analyze the economic impact of climate change on the forest industry in Quebec over a 40-year period using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We find that the climate change effects will be relatively weak on most macroeconomic variables as agents adjust their behavior over time and factors are reallocated across sectors. We find that climate change could generate losses in gross domestic product of up to Can$300 million (0.12% of gross domestic product) at the end of a 40-year period for Quebec's economy. However, we find relatively more important effects within the sectors of the forest industry, with losses ranging from 3% to 7.5%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal zone and its ecosystems provide numerous provisioning, regulating, cultural, and supporting services. Because of its resources and its hydroelectric potential, Canada's boreal zone is important to the country's resource-based economy. The region presently occupied by Canada's boreal zone has experienced dramatic changes during the past 3 million years as the climate cooled and repeated glaciations affected both the biota and the landscape. For about the past 7000 years, climate, fire, insects, diseases, and their interactions have been the most important natural drivers of boreal ecosystem dynamics, including rejuvenation, biogeochemical cycling, maintenance of productivity, and landscape variability. Layered upon natural drivers are changes increasingly caused by people and development and those related to human-caused climate change. Effects of these agents vary spatially and temporally, and, as global population increases, the demands and impacts on ecosystems will likely increase. Understanding how humans directly affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Canada's boreal zone and how these effects and actions interact with natural disturbance agents is a prerequisite for informed and adaptive decisions about management of natural resources, while maintaining the economy and environment upon which humans depend. This paper reports on the genesis and present condition of the boreal zone and its ecosystems and sets the context for a detailed scientific investigation in subsequent papers published in this journal on several key aspects: carbon in boreal forests; climate change consequences, adaptation, and mitigation; nutrient and elemental cycling; protected areas; status, impacts, and risks of non-native species; factors affecting sustainable timber harvest levels; terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity; and water and wetland resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate whether future climate change would trigger an increase in the fire activity of the Waswanipi area, central Quebec. First, we used regression analyses to model the historical (1973–2002) link between weather conditions and fire activity. Then, we calculated Fire Weather Index system components using 1961–2100 daily weather variables from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the A2 climate change scenario. We tested linear trends in 1961–2100 fire activity and calculated rates of change in fire activity between 1975–2005, 2030–2060, and 2070–2100. Our results suggest that the August fire risk would double (+110%) for 2100, while the May fire risk would slightly decrease (–20%), moving the fire season peak later in the season. Future climate change would trigger weather conditions more favourable to forest fires and a slight increase in regional fire activity (+7%). While considering this long-term increase, interannual variations of fire activity remain a major challenge for the development of sustainable forest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]