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Predicting future conservation needs can help inform conservation management but is subject to uncertainty. We measured deforestation rates during 2015–2017 for 114 protected areas in Madagascar, linked deforestation to the status of protection according to IUCN categories I–VI, used recent deforestation rates to extrapolate forest cover over 2017–2050 and linked the size of forest blocks to the projected persistence of lemur subpopulations. In the six IUCN categories for protected areas in Madagascar the median size of forest blocks is 9–37 km2 and median annual deforestation rates range from 0.02% in the single IUCN category III site to 0.19% in category II and 1.95% in category VI sites. In 2017, 40% of all forest blocks within protected areas were < 10 km2, and this is projected to increase to 45% in 2050. Apart from these small forest fragments, the modal site of forest blocks was 160–320 km2 in 2017, and this is projected to decrease to 80–160 km2 in 2050. The range of > 50% of all lemur species exclusively contains forest blocks of < 10 km2. The modal size of forest blocks > 10 km2 is predicted to remain at 120 km2 until 2050. Although uncertainty remains, these analyses provide hope that forest blocks within the protected areas of Madagascar will remain large enough to maintain lemur subpopulations for most species until 2050. This should allow sufficient time for the implementation of effective conservation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information on the extent of bushmeat hunting is needed to assess the likely impact on hunted species, to provide information on the opportunity cost to local people of conservation, and to judge the efficacy of interventions at reducing pressure. However, where hunting is illegal, or socially unacceptable, respondents may not answer honestly to direct questions about hunting or consumption of bushmeat. We adapted a specialized method for investigating sensitive behaviours (the randomized response technique, RRT) and questioned 1,851 people in Madagascar about their consumption of six species, using either RRT or direct questions. For most species at most sites RRT and direct questions returned similar estimates of the proportion of the population who had consumed bushmeat in the previous year. However, RRT resulted in significantly higher estimates of bushmeat consumption in communities surrounding a protected area, where conservation activities made such questions sensitive. RRT has been predominately used in Europe and the USA; we demonstrate that it can provide a valuable approach for studying rule-breaking among people with poor literacy in low income countries. Between 12 and 33% of people across our sites had eaten brown lemur (Eulemur spp.), and 12–29% had eaten sifaka (Propithecus spp.) in the previous year. These results add to the growing body of evidence that hunting of protected species in Madagascar is a serious problem requiring urgent action. Conservation interventions to tackle bushmeat hunting will make questions about hunting or consumption more sensitive, increasing the need for researchers to use appropriate approaches for asking sensitive questions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]