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Background: Experimental studies of wound healing often use survival analysis and time to event outcomes or differences in wound area at a specific time point. However, these methods do not use a potentially large number of observations made over the course of a trial and may be inefficient. A model-based approach can leverage all trial data, but there is little guidance on appropriate models and functional forms to describe wound healing. Methods: We derive a general statistical model and review a wide range of plausible mathematical models to describe wound healing. We identify a range of possible derived estimands and their derivation from the models. Using data from a trial of an intervention to promote ulcer healing in patients affected by leprosy that included three measurement methods repeated across the course of the study, we compare the goodness-of-fit of the models using a range of methods and estimate treatment effects and healing rate functions with the best-fitting models. Results: Overall, we included 5,581 ulcer measurements of 1,578 unique images from 130 patients. We examined the performance of a range of models. The square root, log square root, and log quadratic models were the best fitting models across all outcome measurement methods. The estimated treatment effects magnitude and sign varied by time post-randomisation, model type, and outcome type, but across all models there was little evidence of effectiveness. The estimated effects were significantly more precise than non-parametric alternatives. For example, estimated differences from the three outcome measurements at 42-days post-randomisation were − 0.01 cm2 (-0.77, 0.74), -0.44 cm2 (-1.64, 0.76), and 0.11 cm2 (-0.87, 1.08) using a non-parametric method versus − 0.03 cm2 (-0.14, 0.06), 0.06 cm2 (-0.05, 0.17), and 0.03 cm2 (-0.07, 0.17) using a square-root model. Conclusions: Model-based analyses can dramatically improve the precision of estimates but care must be taken to carefully compare and select the best fitting models. The (log) square-root model is strongly recommended reflecting advice from a century ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Xylazine is an alpha-2 adrenergic receptor agonist that has emerged as a contaminant in the illicit drug supply of fentanyl. Xylazine use may be suspected in naloxone-resistant overdoses and atypical, chronic wounds in people who use drugs (PWUD). This case is unique because it is the first case to our knowledge describing wound care for a xylazine-induced wound with a confirmatory xylazine test strip (XTS) in the setting of a syringe services program (SSP) and in the state of Florida. Case presentation: A 43-year-old woman with a past medical history of severe opioid use disorder and stimulant use disorder presented to a student-run clinic at a Miami SSP for wound care. She had multiple ulcerations diffusely over her bilateral forearms with surrounding erythema and warmth. Seven weeks later, she presented to clinic again for wound care because her wounds had progressed. At this visit, a XTS was used to confirm the presence of xylazine in her urine. Wound care management and harm reduction strategies employed at both visits were informed by best clinical judgement due to lack of formal guidelines at the time. Wound outcomes are unknown as the patient has not returned to clinic. Conclusions: Many PWUD at highest risk for acute and chronic health consequences of xylazine-adulterated fentanyl do not have access to healthcare outside of low barrier clinics and SSPs due to lack of insurance or mistrust of the traditional healthcare system due to stigma. There is an urgent need for access to XTS for PWUD and clinical practice guidelines for the treatment of xylazine-related wounds in outpatient clinics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]