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This paper describes the examination of an oversaturated signalized intersection with no turning permitted. During the green phase, data on the time between arrivals of successive vehicles at an intersection with no downstream bottleneck have been collected and analyzed. Measurements were made of only the vehicles in queue, i.e., vehicles that were stopped during the red phase and those that were stopped during the green phase because the starting wave had not traveled back far enough. Measurements were made only on weekdays from approximately 7:00 A.M. to 8:45 A.M. in order to restrict the sample, as far as possible, to commuters. It is shown that shifted Erlang density functions fit the data satisfactorily and that all vehicles from the third on may be considered as members of the same population with different means. The mean arrival times decrease from front to rear with all from the seventh on being the same. In addition, our statistical analysis leads us to accept the hypothesis that all interarrival times are independent. Experimental techniques and statistical methods are described. Two uses of these results are (1) to provide in- formation for Monte Carlo simulations of traffic phenomena in which oversaturated situations are being considered, and (2) to develop, as will be done in a subsequent paper, a renewal model that takes account of variability in the empyting process, and that may be used in formulating control policies for the oversaturated situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experimental design considerations have been virtually ignored by economists who have conducted computer simulation experiments with models of economic systems. The objective of this paper is to spell out in detail the relationship between existing experimental design techniques and techniques of data analysis and the design of simulation experiments with economic systems. We begin by defining the problem of experimental design as applied to computer simulation experiments. With the aid of an example model, we explore several techniques of data analysis and a number of specific experimental design problems. Although this paper is oriented towards the design of computer simulation experiments in economics, the techniques which are discussed are of a general nature and should be applicable to the design of simulation experiments in other disciplines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two recent papers have pointed out that living costs are not only affected by the prices and qualities of products but also by the number of forms in which each product is offered.¹ Moreover, a tentative procedure has been outlined for measuring the economic significance of changes in product variety and for adjusting cost-of-living indexes accordingly. The present article is intended to explore the points covered in the earlier papers more fully and to answer several questions that have been raised concerning them.² [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the author will talk about researcher R.A. Fisher's contributions to statistics. It is well-known that his work in genetics was of comparable status. It is largely represented by his book "The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection," though in his subsequent work his further association with ecological and experimental studies in evolutionary genetics, and his share in the development of studies in the human blood groups, might especially be recalled. Fisher's contributions to statistics began with a paper in 1912 advocating the method of maximum likelihood for fitting frequency curves, although the first paper of substance was his 1915 paper in the journal "Biometrika," on the sampling distribution of the correlation coefficient. Fisher tried to pose problems of analysis as the reduction and simplification of statistical data. He put forward his well-known concept of amount of information in estimation theory, such that information might be lost, but never gained, by analysis. His concept has been of great practical value, especially in large sample theory.

The paper analyzes J. K. GALBRAITH's new vision of the economic system of the U.S.A., seen as an example of popular institutionalist thinking. Such a critique seems important because of GALBRAITH's claim to a closed and complete doctrine and because of the growing influence of his vulgarized economics. An examination of his methods discovers deficiencies of the systemic approach, obscurities in concept formation, arbitrary formulations of behavioral theories, purely persuasive modes of argumentation and techniques of immunization against contrary evidence. An analysis of his system of political economy shows that it lacks a genuine theory of the state and a truly consistent explanation of inequalities of power. So his programme of reforms and of measures of economic policy rests upon rather weak methodological and theoretical foundations. SUBSTITUTION ALONG THE TIME AXIS CARL CHRISTIAN VON WEIZSCKER. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper reviews and assesses recent developments in transport planning techniques and makes suggestions on those aspects on which further research could most productively focus. Part I deals with various traffic forecasting methods, a field in which newer microeconomic decision models appear to provide promising results. Part II analyzes the use and limits of various planning techniques at the project, modal network and intermodal level, with particular emphasis on multi-parametric simulation models; special attention is directed at the interdependence of investment, pricing, taxes/subsidies and access control. Part III is concerned with some ambitious but rather unsatisfactory attempts of predicting the locational impact of changes in the transport sector on other sectors of the economy; consistency analysis, dynamic planning and further basic line data collection, necessary to formulate models of higher predictive value, are suggested. Part IV discusses the implications of using transport policy as an instrument for explicitly influencing the desired regional pattern of economical and social activities, an area to which priority of further research should be given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Max Weber (1864-1920) enjoys a world reputation as a jurist, economist, historian and sociologist. As a sociologist he has become known in particular for his publications on methodology and for his studies on the sociology of religion, law and music and on political and industrial sociology. Little is known of Weber as a rural sociologist (sec. I), even among American and European rural sociologists (sec. III), in spite of the fact that Weber was intensively concerned with agrarian and rural problems over a period of years (sec. II). Although he did not at the time regard himself as a sociologist (sec. II), the sociological tendency of his 'rural' studies is unmistakable (sec. IV). In the final section (sec. V) it is put forward that Weber's lack of proper recognition among rural sociologists might be mainly due to the poor correlation between rural sociology on the one hand, and general sociology and the various other branches of sociology on the other hand. Rural sociology is not innocent of a certain 'professional blindness'. The paper is concluded with a plea for a serious confrontation between rural sociology and the work of Max Weber, as well as with that of other classical and modern authors in the field of the science of which rural sociology expressly claims to be a branch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The iron and steel manufacturing apparatus in mainland China has been developed through several major stages, each of which manifests a distinctive pattern underlined by certain overriding factors. From the embryonic period at the turn of this century to World War II, transportation, capital availability, and market condition were alternately the chief determinant in the location of this industry. Since the Communist take-over and through the various construction and expansion programs, particularly as a result of the development of new resources, a new pattern has taken shape which tends to guide the future growth of this industry. This paper offers a locational analysis of the major nuclei in the emerging pattern and their effect upon the development of the secondary centers in the various regions of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mining has usually been regarded as the simplest case of the location problem, to be explained, at least at the level of the producing district, largely in terms of the least-cost principle. This approach would also appear to have some relevance to the examination of the location of individual pits within a particular coalfield. This paper outlines a simple model for the development of an hypothetical coalfield, then considers the changing patterns of pit location on the main New South Wales coalfields in relation to this model. It would seem that there is a close coincidence between the hypothesized situation and the main evolutionary stages of these fields. There are, however, some significant departures from the idealized scheme, particularly during periods of industrial or economic recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beginning with Ogburn, the place of economic factors within the modem conjugal unit has been minimized. It has been argued that the major dimension of the current nuclear unit is the affective, the emotional, the expressive. The very term "marital adjustment" connotes that external constraints are less vital than the "ability" of the couple to "work out" interpersonal problems. The observers leaped from the data-the decrease of joint economic participation between husbands and wives-to the inference that modern marriage coheres or collapses almost solely on the basis of affective elements. Parsons has recently restated and expanded this position by asserting that "it is of course a commonplace that the [my italics] American family is predominantly … an urban middle-class family … there has emerged a remarkably uniform, basic type of family." For Parsons, this "uniform family" rests chiefly on personality variables which he analyzes in a psychoanalytic context. It may be that except at the most general structural level, Parsons' "uniform family" may be as unfortunate a term as was his "isolated family" of a decade ago. For it is also possible to leap from the data to the alternative hypothesis that economic factors still play a vital role within the conjugal family albeit in a differentiated form. Is it not strange to realize that an inherent feature of modern society is complexity, specialization, and differentiation, and that this can be seen in every part of society-every part, that is, except the conjugal family system? Here we are told that there is "remarkable" homogeneity based on the "indispensable function" of expressive gratifications. It seems just as simple and perhaps more logical to assume the opposite, viz., that increasing societal complexity should be related to a more complex family system. In any event, given the ever increasing complexity of our society, the burden of proof is on those who argue that the conjugal family is going the other way occupations of the last century. Yet while agricultural occupations were supposedly inextricable from the family, the impact of modern occupations is largely ignored and thus unexplored.Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to set forth a conceptual schema which indicates that there is significant differentiation among types of conjugal families, and that this differentiation is based on differing relationships to the occupational structure. First, we will outline the five sets of variables within our schema; second, we will attempt to present a rationale for these particular kinds of variables; and finally, we will try to link them in ways that meaningfully demonstrate differentiation between conjugal families. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on religious organization and economic process in Indonesia. A major by-product of the analysis of the factors making for, or impeding, economic development in the so-called underdeveloped countries of the world is the discovery of religious or other ideological forms of human motivation that shape the cultural specifics of their concepts of welfare and betterment in the production process. In that part of the world where the advanced features of the modern Western market economy and its industrial and financial ancillaries are still relatively novel imports, types of religio-familistic organization still prevail which, with varying degrees of effectiveness, dominate economic life. This paper seeks to illustrate this contention by three examples from the Indonesian sphere: the village and its various territorial and genealogical affiliations; the Islamic sacred foundations; and the altar associations of the Indonesian Chinese. Although the data are limited to Indonesia, it is believed that they have relevance for a wider area.

Among available economic data of less developed countries, foreign trade statistics are known to be most reliable and are used extensively. This paper, concentrating on Southeast Asian countries, examines the extent and variation of discrepancy in export and import recordings of their own and of their trading partners. The ratio of corresponding trade records exhibit varying heights and irregular patterns suggesting a larger degree of inaccuracy than generally assumed. Inter-Asian trade of Southeast Asian countries show a greater discrepancy than that of their trade with developed countries, and the trade ratio variance of the former is significantly larger than that of the latter at the 5% level. The rank coefficient of correlation between the level of discrepancy and the absolute size of trade value is found to be insignificant for most countries. Also the adjustment of trade figures by exchange rate overvaluation does not narrow the inconsistency in the bilateral trade recordings. The recordings of commodity-by-country trade data show a larger discrepancy than that of total trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses measures of industry concentration--the concentration ratio, the Herfindahl index and a new measure developed by the authors--both analytically and empirically. The analytical analysis consists of developing a set of properties which we argue all measures of concentration should possess. Although the concentration ratio is shown to be deficient on analytical grounds it appears to yield estimates of concentration not too different from the Herfindahl index and the measure devised by the authors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides some corrections to the numerical results obtained in a recent paper by Duncan [2] and suggests a more efficient procedure for determining the optimum control parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There seem to be errors of two types in the paper "Sources of Productivity Increases in the U.S. Passenger Airline Industry." The errors of the first type are numerical. Table I gives the estimate 0.0311 for the parameter "h," associated with the common logarithm of the time shift variable Y, and -0.0511 for the parameter "g." The second type of error is much more fundamental. Not only is the assumption that a = 1 wrong in principle, but it may have influenced the major conclusion of the paper, which concerns economies of scale. Only by a recalculation, using the same data in the same model without demanding that a = 1, can one confirm or deny this surmise, but the paper's numerical results already suggest the existence of diseconomies of scale; that suggestion would be strengthened, and perhaps made statistically significant.

The article presents information on an unpremeditated symposium on the economic theory of Clarence E. Ayres. The article argues that Ayres and the Tower on the campus of the University of Texas are two of the dominant features of the academic landscape in the Southwest. Both have been centers of controversy, ranging in intensity from mild to boiling. It seems that few who have considered either have escaped partisan reaction for, or against. The article informs that this issue of the "Southwestern Social Science Quarterly" deals with four examinations of Ayresian economic theory, which range from bitter attack to capable defense, with a note of mildness in between. Together, they should give the reader a fairly complete view of this scholar's ideas. These papers were not solicited, and there was no idea of a symposium on Ayresian theory, when the first of the four, that by Jack Robertson was received. This paper was soon followed by that of Manuel Gottlieb. Both were highly recommended for publication by economists respected for their competence in the field.