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The effects of the form of the function relating criterion values to cue values and of the validity of the cue upon the subjects' hypotheses in probabilistic inference tasks were studied in a factorial experiment with two levels of cue validity (rCE = A5, and rCE = .90), and four function forms (positive linear, negative linear, inversely U-shaped, and U-shaped). The results were consistent with a hypothesis sampling theory, and the relative frequencies of four basic hypotheses could be predicted from earlier results with respect to the relative strengths of those hypotheses. The results also showed that the correlation between the hypotheses stated by the subjects and the rules extracted from their judgments by means of polynomial regression was higher for linear hypotheses than for nonlinear hypotheses. The correlation was quite low, however, also for linear hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The problem of joining or not joining a (faculty) union is analyzed via a simplified analogy. The effects of group size are discussed and it is shown that the decision structure is an n-person prisoner's dilemma. Several Possible solutions to the dilemma are discussed but the ultimate solution appears to be more a matter of social ethics than logic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In some inference situations a report of an event must he distinguished from the event itself. Such a distinction is necessary whenever there is reason to question the reliability of the source which generates the report. A quantity called adjusted likelihood ratio (Λ) is defined which incorporates information about source reliability and information about the inferential impact (L) of the event being reported. A is shown to differ from L under several different conditions of source reliability. When source reliability is not contingent upon the truth of any hypothesis being considered, a small reduction in reliability drastically degrades very large values of L. When L is small to begin with the effects of reducing reliability are less drastic. When source reliability is contingent upon some hypothesis. then Λ can he greater than L for the event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]