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From the perspectives of "reduction emission" and "congestion releasing", a vehicle pollution reducing management model is established based on the relevant data of 2005-2017 in Beijing. Firstly, the graphical function is constructed by using the approach of integrating system dynamics and grey model theory. It has improved the prediction precision of the parameters and put forward a new method of system dynamics modeling. Secondly, the integrity test (such as qualified verification of the degree of incidence) is used to test the model, in order to overcome some insufficient of the local testing method. Moreover, three kinds (including the low, medium and high policy) of schemes are simulated, and the results show that the low policy has a "double inflection-point effect". In addition, there is a "marginal diminishing effect" between the medium and high policy. Finally, taking the medium policy as an example, mid-long term dynamic simulation is carried out for the major variables (such as CO, HC, NOx, PM, and per vehicle area of roads). In particular, in the short term, the effect of high scheme is quite significant, but from the long-term perspective, the effect will be gradually weakened. Therefore, it can provide decision-making basis for the government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The residential building sector consumes a large amount of energy and is recognized as a high potential area where urban energy consumption and carbon emission can be reduced. To reduce the residential energy consumption, relevant policies and measures have been formulated in different places. However, due to the lack of adequate information in the process of policy formulation, the effectiveness of most energy-saving policies for residential buildings seems to be unsatisfactory. Although previous studies have analyzed the energy consumption for a single building or for the whole construction industry at the national level, few of them investigated the life-cycle energy consumption of residential buildings at the city level. Since municipal governments are the key implementers for the reduction of urban energy consumption, a city-level analysis on the energy consumption of residential buildings is highly needed for the policy making. To fill the research gap, this paper develops a life-cycle dynamic simulation model to fully reveal the characteristics of energy consumption of residential buildings at the city level. This easy-to-use model is validated by a case study of Beijing, which demonstrates its applicability and capability to help analyze multiple indicators of residential energy consumption and the dynamic trends of these indicators for municipal governments. Furthermore, the model can be used under the condition of limited input data, and can provide the situation analysis and simulation results of energy consumption of urban residential buildings for facilitating the policy making by municipal governments. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • The proposed model can analyze city-level energy consumption of residential buildings. • The model can be used with relatively limited amounts of input data. • Operation stage accounts for 67% of total residential energy consumption in Beijing. • Heating is the most energy-intensive activity of operation stage in Beijing. • Policy implications for residential energy saving are provided based on the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]