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Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net‐zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net‐zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature‐based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost‐effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not‐mature‐yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net‐zero pledge by mid‐century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short‐term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net‐zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large‐scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid‐century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net‐zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net‐zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land‐use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short‐ and long‐term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land‐use change (LUC)‐related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions determine largely whether bioenergy is a suitable option for climate change mitigation. This study assesses how LUC emissions influence demand for bioenergy to mitigate GHG emissions, and how this affects the energy mix, using Brazil as a case study. A methodological framework is applied linking bioenergy supply curves, with associated costs and spatially explicit LUC emissions, to a bottom‐up energy system model. Furthermore, the influence of four key determining parameters is assessed: agricultural productivity, time horizon, natural succession (NS), and the use of dynamic emission factors (EFs). Demand for new bioenergy plantations range from 0.5 to 6.7 EJ in 2050, and is avoided when its EF reaches above 15 kg CO2/GJbiomass. Dynamic EFs result in earlier and larger use of bioenergy. Static EFs attenuate all emissions evenly over time, resulting in relative high emissions around 2050 when the carbon budget is most stringent. This in contrast to dynamic EFs, having early high peaks because of clearance of natural vegetation, but relatively small long‐term emissions when the carbon budget is most stringent. Exclusion of NS, in combination with spared agricultural land, results in a demand of 6.7 EJ, because of its low carbon penalty. Assuming that land is spared due to continuous yield increase (which is the reason to include NS as and EF component), bypasses the fact that yield improvements (that make those lands available) take place because of demand for bioenergy. When low‐carbon biomass is in limited availability, increasing electrification is observed, leading to electric capacity increase of 62% (mainly wind and solar energy), and a 12% energy system costs increase. Inclusion of spatiotemporal explicit supply potential and LUC emissions leads to improved bioenergy deployment pathways that come closer to the real situation as the dynamic nature of LUC emissions is included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land‐uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land‐use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plastics account for 4.5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are hard-to-abate due to the use of fossil fuels as feedstock. Our study develops a cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment of bioethylene production, exploring 33 pathways across Brazil, the EU, and the US. It aims to understand whether substituting fossil-based ethylene with bioethylene contributes to lowering carbon emissions, and in which of the relevant bioenergy-producing regions/countries the valorisation of biofuels as feedstocks would provide a less carbon-intensive bioethylene production. Results indicate that bioethylene production through catalytic dehydration of sugarcane bioethanol in Brazil presents lowest GHG emission. This pathway could deliver up to −2.1 kg CO 2 e/kg ethylene when accounting for biogenic carbon storage in long-lived applications such as infrastructure. In contrast, beef tallow performs the poorest as a raw material, regardless of whether land-use change (LUC) emissions are considered. When biogenic carbon storage is factored out, none of the pathways outperforms conventional fossil-based steam cracking; however, some are within the fossil-based range indicating potential indirect benefits through reduced refinery utilisation. Our study underscores that biomaterials production as a climate mitigation strategy must be on par with circular economy measures and the conservation of native forestry ecosystems. These results are particularly relevant to policymakers and industries seeking to align polymer manufacturing with sustainability objectives. • Bio-ethylene cradle-to-gate GHG emissions were assessed for 33 pathways. • Sugary, starch, lignocellulosic and oily crops are raw materials for bio-ethylene. • Local specificities such as biogenic carbon storage and land-use are critical to LCA GHG emissions. • Sugarcane bioethanol dehydration route yielded 2.1 kgCO 2 e captured per of kg ethylene. • Climate mitigation and circular economy policies must be designed coherently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aimed to understand how Protected Areas act for the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The state of Mato Grosso, located in the center-west of Brazil, was analysed as it is a state of large dimensions and with different biomes in its composition. A case study was carried out in order to dimension the importance of PAs in dealing with the sequestration of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), using the state of Mato Grosso. From the literature review, it was identified that the Protected Areas are a mitigating instrument for climate change, since conservation maintains ecosystem services and helps in the capture and storage of carbon dioxide, called carbon sinks. Through a legal analysis, it was found that the environmental policies of Protected Areas do not materially establish climate change as a basis. The data obtained showed that 4.73% of the state area under study fits into this legal instrument. Despite corresponding to a small territorial parcel, the Protected Areas are spread over the three biomes that make up the state, in the search to protect the three different biodiversity. From the analysis of the data, it is concluded that the Protected Areas have a mitigating role for climate change in the state of Mato Grosso, due to Land Use Change, a factor of great incidence in the state. For further research, it is suggested to analyse the relevance of indigenous areas in this same scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To foster the energy transition towards a low carbon economy, countries must set and report climate policy instruments. Since the Paris Agreement, nations have been strongly encouraged to increase ambitions and reduce carbon emissions in the coming decades. However, a wave of emerging parties has gained momentum around the world, advocating a hostile stance on climate change mitigation policies. Brazil, one of the traditional leaders of the climate agenda, has experienced an uptake in its greenhouse gas emissions, with no expectation of reversing this trend. The government has signaled that only economically attractive mitigation options will be considered. For this reason, it is crucial to develop scenarios that consider this upward trend. The model estimates carbon emissions at the highest level of detail available, providing abatement cost over time. The results indicate that Brazil has potential to meet its transport related NDC commitments, with 13% cuts by 2030 (26MtCO 2 e) achieved with an intensive use of biofuels. However, the cost-benefit of this strategy would not correspond to the mitigation potential, with financial losses above 1US$/tCO 2 e. The most suitable alternatives would be investments in electromobility and infrastructure, with gains exceeding 200US$/tCO 2 e. These outcomes may aware decision-makers about the cost-effectiveness of certain policies. • We conduct an in-depth assessment of transport-related energy transition paths for 2030. • Three scenarios were developed based on different political commitment. • Brazil has potential to meet its transport related NDC commitments. • The most suitable alternatives would be investments in electromobility and infrastructure. • The outcomes may aware decision-makers about the cost-effectiveness of certain policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes governmental responses for the climate change challenge in China and Brazil. Both countries have a central role in the climate change debate since they are major greenhouse gases emitters, thus contributing to the aggravation of the problem, each with differentiated participation. At the same time, policy measures aimed at climate issues in these countries may lead to the reconfiguration of international negotiations on the topic. The methodological aspects include three main points of analysis: the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions in both countries; political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue and focusing on mitigation and policy responses related to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhanced weathering is a simple and scalable negative emissions technology with an estimated carbon dioxide removal potential of multiple gigatons per year. To date, the only life-cycle assessment of enhanced weathering was published by Lefebvre et al. (2019) in this journal. They estimated the carbon dioxide removal potential in Sao Paolo State in Brazil to be 1.3–2.4 Mt/y, examined the penalty from transportation greenhouse gas emissions, and pointed out that using life-cycle assessment can give more reliable estimates of climate change mitigation potential of enhanced weathering systems. In this letter, we discuss the limitations of life-cycle assessment of enhanced weathering, and then propose a more comprehensive life-cycle optimization approach, where the system configuration can be automatically synthesized to maximize environmental performance. This concept can be extended further to life-cycle sustainability optimization by including economic and social dimensions. • The first life cycle assessment of enhanced weathering was reported in 2019. • Life cycle optimization and life cycle sustainability assessment are also needed. • A combined life cycle sustainability optimization framework should be developed. • Hybrid models can be used to address future issues in enhanced weathering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to provide an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) perspective of the production and distribution of alternative marine fuels in Brazilian ports, considering the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission reduction target for 2050 (IMO2050). Although other mitigation measures are available, it is likely that alternative fuels will be required, implying additional costs and entailing relevant impacts on other energy chains and land use. Hence, the national IAM BLUES model is adapted to represent the relevant part of the international shipping sector. A set of scenarios is developed considering different fuel alternatives, demand assumptions and national mitigation targets. Findings show that taking into account emissions of CO 2 only or of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) within the IMO strategy significantly impacts the optimal technological portfolio. Furthermore, achieving the IMO2050 goal without considering a national decarbonization strategy may result in potential spillovers. The intense use of the energy sector could partially compromise the gains obtained by maritime decarbonization or even surpass it. Therefore, only an integrated mitigation strategy would lead to more effective decarbonization of the entire marine supply. • There is no single optimal portfolio of alternative fuels for shipping. • Brazil can fulfil any low-carbon marine fuel strategy. • Marine fuels should be part of all national decarbonization strategies. • The decarbonization of shipping should be part of Brazil's deep mitigation pathways. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This sugarcane agro-system was a carbon sink. • The NEE of CO 2 fluxes (assimilation versus respiration) dominated the balances. • The N 2 O and CH 4 emitted totals were offset by the C gain. The sustainability of sugarcane farming for biofuel has recently become a subject of debate, because its expansion may contribute significantly to global climate change mitigation. Here we report greenhouse gases (GHG) fluxes, measured by the eddy covariance method, from a commercial scale rain-fed sugarcane plantation representative of the leading bioethanol production area in southeast Brazil. The measurements covered two harvests, during which the field received nitrogen fertilization and trash was not removed. The cumulative fluxes for nitrous oxide (N 2 O) (62.4 ± 1.3 and 52.3 ± 1.8 g N 2 O CO 2 eq. m−2 for the first and second years, respectively) and methane (CH 4) (12.1 ± 1.7 and 10.4 ± 2.3 g CH 4 CO 2 eq. m−2 for the first and second years, respectively) were minor sources to the atmosphere in comparison with the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2), whose sink dominated the balances (−7643. ± 129. and -4615. ± 124. g CO 2 m−2 for the first and second years, respectively). Compared to the first year, the observed NEE in the second year decreased by 40%, as it covered the first re-growth from the stubble (ratoon) and exhibited a shorter growth cycle than the first year (304 versus 390 days). The second year also included the partial decomposition of the trash remaining on the soil after the first harvest (1581 ± 301 g CO 2 m−2). The net ecosystem carbon balances (NECB), obtained as the cumulative fluxes of GHGs and the stalk dry biomass removed in the harvests (4923 ± 459 and 3929 ± 352 g CO 2 m−2 for the first and second years, respectively) were -2646 ± 459 and -623 ± 352 g CO 2 m−2 for the first and second years, respectively. Although the yields in stalk fresh weight (SFW) were representative of the region (9.9 and 8.2 kg SFW m−2, in the first and second year respectively) other factors caused a decrease of 76% in NECB, stressing the importance of the CO 2 balance (assimilation versus respiration). Nevertheless, this sugarcane agro-system was an overall carbon sink with the N 2 O and CH 4 emitted totals being offset by the net carbon gain. Image, graphical abstract [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]