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In order to design an optimal carbon peak and carbon neutralization pathway for the high-density building sector, a dynamic prediction model is established using system-dynamics coupled building life cycle carbon emission model (SD-BLCA) with consideration of future evolutionary trajectory and time constraints. The model is applied in Beijing using the SD-BLCA combined with scenario analysis and Monte Carlo methods to explore optimal trajectory for its building sector under 30-year timeframe. The results indicate that by increasing the proportion of renewable energy generation by 7% and retrofitting 60 million m2 of existing buildings, these two mature measures can offset the growth of carbon emissions and achieve the peak target by 2025. However, achieving carbon neutrality necessitates a shift from isolated technologies to a comprehensive net-zero emissions strategy. The study proposes a time roadmap that integrates a zero-carbon energy supply system and the carbon reduction measures of the whole life cycle. This strategy primarily relies on renewable sources to provide heat, power, and hydrogen, resulting in estimated reductions of 29.8 Mt, 28.1 Mt, and 0.7 Mt, respectively. Zero energy buildings, green buildings, and renovated buildings can reduce carbon emissions through their own energy-saving measures by 8.4, 18.2, and 11.8 kg/m2, respectively. [Display omitted] • System-dynamics coupled life cycle dynamic prediction model were established. • The major CO 2 emission from building operation stage ranged 52%–73% in megacity. • CO 2 emission reduce 59 and 18 Mt from energy supply and consumption for building neutrality. • Renewable energy includes 51% Heat, 48% Power and 1% hydrogen in building neutrality. • Enhancement of energy efficiency and zero-carbon energy contribute building neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The residential building sector consumes a large amount of energy and is recognized as a high potential area where urban energy consumption and carbon emission can be reduced. To reduce the residential energy consumption, relevant policies and measures have been formulated in different places. However, due to the lack of adequate information in the process of policy formulation, the effectiveness of most energy-saving policies for residential buildings seems to be unsatisfactory. Although previous studies have analyzed the energy consumption for a single building or for the whole construction industry at the national level, few of them investigated the life-cycle energy consumption of residential buildings at the city level. Since municipal governments are the key implementers for the reduction of urban energy consumption, a city-level analysis on the energy consumption of residential buildings is highly needed for the policy making. To fill the research gap, this paper develops a life-cycle dynamic simulation model to fully reveal the characteristics of energy consumption of residential buildings at the city level. This easy-to-use model is validated by a case study of Beijing, which demonstrates its applicability and capability to help analyze multiple indicators of residential energy consumption and the dynamic trends of these indicators for municipal governments. Furthermore, the model can be used under the condition of limited input data, and can provide the situation analysis and simulation results of energy consumption of urban residential buildings for facilitating the policy making by municipal governments. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • The proposed model can analyze city-level energy consumption of residential buildings. • The model can be used with relatively limited amounts of input data. • Operation stage accounts for 67% of total residential energy consumption in Beijing. • Heating is the most energy-intensive activity of operation stage in Beijing. • Policy implications for residential energy saving are provided based on the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]