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With the development of the market economy, agricultural trade has become more and more significant for the development of the agricultural economy, which has triggered people's further thinking and exploration on the impact of agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions. This paper takes the measurement of trade implied carbon as the carbon dioxide emission index under the impact of agricultural trade and analyzes the impact of trade implied carbon and implied carbon balance on carbon emission. Taking the impact of Sino-US agricultural trade as an empirical background, this paper measures the impact of environmental changes in agricultural trade opening on China's agricultural development and its carbon emissions, so as to predict changes in China's regional agricultural carbon emissions performance. After calculation, it is found that the scale of China's exports has decreased by 0.089%, which is lower than the decline of 0.361% in the United States. The trade conflict has a significant impact on China's import and export structure. Under the scenario of mutual tariffs on agricultural products, China's exports to the United States are expected to decrease by 6.28%, while China's imports from the United States decreased by 13.02%. The Sino-US agricultural trade dispute will reduce China's carbon emissions by 0.013% and the United States' carbon emissions by 0.024%, which is related to the negative impact on the economy. Improving the performance of agricultural carbon emissions is not only the need for the green and sustainable development of the agricultural economy but also conducive to improving the international competitiveness of agricultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the economic impact of discretionary fiscal and monetary actions taken in the United States during 2020 and 2021. The fiscal actions are The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, or the "CARES" Act, passed in March 2020; The Consolidated Appropriations Act, passed in December 2020; and The American Rescue Plan Act, passed in March 2021. The paper focuses on the impact of the "economic impact payments" that underlie these fiscal actions. The paper also examines discretionary monetary policy actions taken during the same period. The overall implication is that there is a need to return to policies that increase economic growth and stability, including rules-based fiscal and monetary policy, rather than to continue with these one-time discretionary actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the COVID-19 outbreak, consumer behavior has been affected by the perceived threat of the pandemic and economic uncertainty. This paper aims to explore the dynamic effects of COVID-19, consumer sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and fuel prices on travel behavior in the United States. Using updated daily trip data, the results show that consumer sentiment has a positive long-run impact on travel demand for air and auto, suggesting that a positive change in consumer sentiment can boost demand for these modes of transportation in the long term. Additionally, consumer sentiment has a favorable effect (1.34) on demand for long-distance trips, but it has a negative impact (−0.42) on the number of people staying at home. Economic and political shocks have a detrimental impact on demand for air and auto travel, suggesting that consumers reduce the frequency and cost of these transport services if they have pessimistic expectations about the future state of the economy and policy. However, in the short term, US travelers appear to be insensitive to shocks in consumer sentiment and economic policy uncertainty. Regarding the perceived threat of the pandemic, the results indicate that rising COVID-19 cases have a negative long-term effect on demand for air travel (−0.09) and public transit (−0.19), while they are positively associated with demand for auto travel (0.06). Similarly, the increasing number of deaths due to COVID-19 has led to a shift from shared-use mass transportation (air travel and public transit) to private autos and non-motorized travel, such as walking in the short term. • We examine changes in travel behavior and mode preferences during COVID-19. • Positive sentiment shocks boost travel demand for air and auto in the long run. • Economic and political shocks have an adverse effect on demand for air and auto. • COVID-19 cases are the main long-term determinant of demand for air and transit. • COVID-19 threat results in a modal shift from shared-use transport to personal transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper sets up a dynamic infinite-industry model to discuss the impact of factor endowments on technology choice and industrial upgrading. The model shows that at any time, the technologies in any industries should be adapted to the factor endowments structure. It further shows that as the economy develops, the industrial structure is unimodal with a leading industry, and with capital accumulation, each industry experiences technology upgrading from labor intensive to capital intensive and the leading industry shifts to more capital intensive as well. The model's implications are consistent with the stylized facts of manufacturing data from the United States and other countries. By incorporating various frictions and market failures, the model can discuss various policy issues in economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses economics research and teaching frameworks in the United States by examining how knowledge is produced; the strengths and flaws of heterodox economic theory; and how students are trained, especially for careers in economic policy. We challenge the meaning of established terminology such as ‘heterodoxy’ and ‘mainstream.’ Three major reasons are suggested for the disappointing reality that pluralist economics among academic institutions, the broader public, and a new generation of economists has not happened: 1) neoclassical hegemony; 2) weakness in heterodox theory, and 3) rigidity of pedagogy and training in economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether returns on 49 different industry portfolios in the United States (US) expose significantly to the US economic policy uncertainty (EPU) even after controlling for the market and firm-specific risk factors. We find that the US EPU can load significantly against the returns of 15 industry portfolios which include stocks from heavy manufacturing and export dependent industries. However, further asset pricing tests show that the US EPU cannot improve the ability of a benchmark model to capture average industry returns. Additionally, the impact of EPU is time-dependent and significant only during specific periods which are different for each industry. Using a portfolio analysis, we also test whether EPU can forecast future returns. Results imply that the return-EPU relationship is almost flat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on real estate investment trusts (REITs) ETFs in a quantile-based framework by employing the nonparametric causality test and the quantile autoregressive (QAR) model. Using data covering the returns of eight major United States (US) Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the period spanning 2 January 2012 to 28 February 2019, we find that there is a weak predictive power of EPU in REITs' returns and volatility. Our findings indicate that EPU has a leading effect on the real estate market returns at the mean level. However, we find no causality running from EPU to real estate markets volatility at all quantiles, indicating a weak influence of uncertainty on the real estate markets. Besides, our results report a significant impact of the EPU on the returns at the lower and upper quantiles. Yet, the impact is not symmetrical since the EPU shows a positive (negative) impact on the returns during the bearish (bullish) market condition. Moreover, the lagged EPU impacts the REITs negatively only during the normal and bullish market conditions, given all the estimated coefficients being negative and significant. Our results entail policy implications for investors, regulators, and asset managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rates of mental illness have increased dramatically over the past 15 years in the United States [Products—Data Briefs—Number 283—August 2017. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db283.htm. Published August 15, 2017]. Additionally, life expectancy has fallen over the past several years due to increases in death from suicide, opioid overdose, and alcoholic liver cirrhosis as reported by Case and Deaton [Deaths of despair and the future of capitalism. Princeton University Press, 2020]. Over the last decade some have questioned whether these changes are due to neoliberal capitalist policies and ideologies. Neoliberal capitalism incorporates theories of eliminating all restrictions on the market and decreasing government assistance programs as reported by Harvey [A brief history of neoliberalism, Oxford University Press, 2005]. Since then these policies have led to income inequality, disempowerment of workers, outsourcing of manufacturing jobs, inadequate social services, mass incarceration and an expensive and ineffective healthcare system as reported by Case and Deaton [Deaths of despair and the future of capitalism. Princeton University Press, 2020] and Nkansah-Amankra et al. [International Journal of Health Services 43(2):217-240, 2013]. Studies have shown that the consequences of these policies and ideologies likely have a role in increasing rates of mental illness. This paper will discuss how these factors increase mental distress and postulate ways that mental health professionals can advocate for change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic crises can be analyzed as part of the economic cycle and from different theoretical perspectives. The article considers economic crises or recessions, in general, as capitalism's own mechanisms to alleviate its contradictions and restore, at least partially, the previous accumulated imbalances. The period 1970 to 2020 covers eight economic crises, some of which determine changes in the internal structure, economic policy trends and the functioning of the U.S. economy, as the main center of the world economy. The purpose of this paper is to examine the set of economic crises of the last fifty years in a panoramic manner, to evaluate them as part of the process of major economic transformations and associated economic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to "bend the curve" during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign-trade zones (FTZs) are restricted-access sites where domestic and foreign goods are stored, manufactured, or assembled. Products foreign bound from an FTZ do not pay duties, tariffs, or ad valorem state taxes, yet are considered domestic goods. These zones are outside of US Customs and Borders Protection (CBP) jurisdiction and are considered foreign territory. FTZs are intended to promote economic development, provide a competitive advantage to US firms, and improve access to foreign markets for US manufacturing firms. However, while these zones can positively impact local economies, they may attract investment away from underserved regions, thereby exacerbating spatial inequality. This paper analyzes the spatial relationship between the number of FTZs, median household income, unemployment rates, income growth rates, and the number of manufacturing firms by county in the Southeastern United States. Results from this study find that counties with FTZs in the Southeast have significantly higher economic output than counties without access to FTZs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since January 2020, the U.S. has had over 150,000 deaths attributed to the Coronavirus, and morbidity and mortality rates continue to rise. In the United States, minorities are more likely to die from COVID-19 than other populations - a fact that further solidifies the disparate nature of race and ethnicity relative to one's health and the inequities in care. COVID-19 has not struck all equally because our economic and social policies have not benefited all equally. This paper introduces a new model, the political determinants of health, which focuses on their role in creating, perpetuating, and exacerbating health inequities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to investigate the responsiveness of renewable energy production (REP) to fluctuations in geopolitical risks, oil prices and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). It applies a cross-quantilogram framework to examine monthly data of the US economy for the period of 1986–2022. The findings illustrate the asymmetric effect of historical geopolitical risk (GPRH) on REP under long memory. The findings also hold after different subcategories of GPRH, including geopolitical threats and geopolitical acts, are considered. A positive shock in GPRH has the most decisive positive impact on REP when the policies are driven by both energy security and environmental commitments. A positive shock in GPRH can negatively impact REP when policies are driven by energy security causes only. EPU exerts strong negative effects on REP in bearish and bullish states of the market under medium and long memory across different measures of EPU. Dynamic connectedness analysis applying TVP-VAR method between pairwise variables indicates that net REP is a volatility receiver to the changes in GPRH, its subcomponents, oil prices and different measures of EPU. [Display omitted] • Application of cross-quantilogram approach to US monthly data during 1986–2022. • Responsiveness of renewable energy production to historical geopolitical risk. • A positive shock in GPRH has asymmetric effects on REP in long memory. • This nexus is sensitive to the motivation of energy policies in US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper relies upon the 'what's the problem represented to be?' approach to policy analysis to interrogate key representations of human trafficking implicit in the UK government's anti-trafficking policy. It identifies six policy vectors, or representations, of human trafficking embedded within the policy, including organized crime, 'illegal' immigration, and victim assistance as three primary vectors; sexual exploitation/prostitution, poverty in countries of victims' origin, and isolated instances of labour law infringements as three secondary vectors. In addition, a series of assumptions, which underlie the current interpretation of trafficking, are also identified. By exploring what the problem of human trafficking is represented to be, the paper also provides an insight into what remains obscured within the context of the dominant policy frameworks. In doing so, it highlights the role of state-capital entanglements in normalizing exploitation of trafficked, smuggled and 'offshored' labour, and critiques the UK's anti-trafficking policy for manufacturing doubt as to the structural causes of human trafficking within the context of neoliberalism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Knowledge spillovers have a positive impact on environmental innovation. • We investigated the waste recycling innovation in the USA, Japan and Europe. • Policymakers should carefully favor industrial relatedness. Since natural resources are finite, new policy instruments to sustain the most efficient processes of waste recycling are required in all countries. To this end, it is critical to explore all technology mechanisms underlying solid waste researchers and practitioners' behaviors. The study focuses on to demonstrate the importance of knowledge diffusion between the source and destination of environmental innovations. This way, policymakers can elaborate opportune strategies to improve the efficiency of innovation activities. By analyzing a sample of 240 large international firms from the USA, Japan, and Europe, this paper discusses the extent to which innovation inputs, research and development, and relative technological spillovers affect environmental innovation—that is measured by the number of waste recycle and land fertilizers patents. The novelty of the study comes from introducing a knowledge production function approach to analyze the role of technological knowledge spillovers on waste recycling and land fertilizers efficiency at the firm level. The technological relatedness between the firms is computed through technological proximity, based on the construction of technological vectors for each firm. The results reveal a significant positive impact of external spillovers on firms' environmental innovation levels. This finding is important particularly in terms of policy implications concerning industrial strategies; as in order to improve environmental innovation, incentives that favor industrial relatedness and establishing integration between firms are crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Technology cost and utility rate structure are key drivers of economic viability of solar and storage systems. • Solar-plus-storage systems are more often economical under time of use and demand charge rates. • Savings from storage-only projects come mainly from demand charge reductions; solar combined with storage also provides energy charge savings. • Savings from solar with storage is largely independent of building load variability, likely due to the energy cost reductions from the solar. Abstract This paper explores the economics of solar-plus-storage projects for commercial-scale, behind-the-meter applications. It provides insight into the near-term and future solar-plus-storage market opportunities across the U.S. We explore the impacts of location, building load profile, technology cost, utility rate structure, and policies on solar-plus-storage economic viability, and identify which factors are most significant to project economics. While savings from storage-only projects are largely derived from demand charge reductions, solar combined with storage also provides significant energy charge savings. A common assumption is that load profiles with peaks are likely candidates for savings from storage, due to the opportunity for demand charge reduction. Our results indicate that potential for savings from combining solar with storage is independent of building load variability, likely due to the energy cost reductions from the solar. Systems are more often economical under time of use and demand charge rates, particularly when demand charges are >$10 per kilowatt. Where systems were found to be economical, expected lifetime savings averaged between 7%–10%, with savings of 30% in numerous cases. Near term markets exist for solar-plus-storage in locations such as California and New York. As technology prices drop, the number of building types that can benefit increase, and additional markets appear in Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska. All data from the study and interactive modeling results are available at: https://openei.org/wiki/Solar+Storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) was designed to reveal the economic, social, and environmental trade-offs associated with conventional economic growth as traditionally measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although originally designed for use at the national scale, an interest has developed in the United States in a state-level uptake of the GPI to inform and guide policy. This study presents the first fifty-state estimate for U.S. GPI in order to address questions over its design, implementation, and ultimate potential as a tool to guide state-level economic policy. Following a review of the current state of analysis and critique of GPI, we provide an overview of methodology and database development. Results are then presented, including discussion of lessons learned through a fifty-state application. The paper concludes with suggestions for further research and next steps to consolidating a consistent methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents new findings from the World Top Incomes Database and discusses some of their policy implications. In particular, the paper provides updated top income series for the United States-including new estimates through 2010, showing a strong rebound of the top 1 percent income share, following the 2008-09 sharp fall. It also presents updated income series for other developed countries (including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan) and new series on wealth-income ratios. In light of this extended set of country series, the paper analyzes the relative importance of market and institutional forces in explaining observed cross-country trends, and the likely impact of the Great recession on these long-term evolutions. It discusses the policy implications of the findings, both in terms of optimal tax policy and regarding the interplay between inequality and macroeconomic fragility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term Load Forecasting (LTLF) plays a vital role in the planning of electric utilities. In the long run, utilities face various uncertainties caused by economic and environmental factors. These uncertainties have made LTLF more complex and inaccurate, thus, amplifying financial risks of utilities. A potent contributor to such losses in LTLF accuracy is economic shocks. This study proposes two probabilistic Time-Varying (TV) approaches to capture such shocks in LTLF and minimise accuracy loss, namely TV-XGB-X and TV-PR, and their combinations considering economic policy uncertainty. Both eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and Polynomial Regression (PR) are extended to include the long-run TV effects of economic shocks as eXogeneous predictors in this paper. These models and their combinations are compared with various non-TV approaches through experiments on the monthly electricity consumption of eight energy-intensive states in the United States. The results reveal that the proposed combined approaches outperform stand-alone models on all datasets. The findings of this study can help utilities in hedging financial risks under shocks. • Proposed Time-Varying framework to detect and capture economic shocks for LTLF. • Framework includes probabilistic TV-PR, TV-XGB-X, their variants and combinations. • Compared the point and probabilistic accuracies of proposed and benchmark models. • Proposed models outperform existing benchmark models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the role of finance and financial regulation in shaping capabilities, in the context of the 2008 financial crisis in the USA, paying particular attention to the implications for capability to be adequately housed. It argues that public reasoning and public action to safeguard this capability can benefit from reference to the obligation to realize the human right to adequate housing. The paper contributes to two areas of discussion that have been relatively neglected in relation to capabilities: the role of finance and financial regulation; and the role of human rights obligations in safeguarding and expanding capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a global input-output framework to quantify U.S. and European Union (EU) demand spillovers and the elasticity of world trade to GDP during the global recession of 2008-09. Cross-border intermediate goods linkages have implications for the transmission of shocks and the relationship between demand, trade, and production across countries. This paper finds that 20-30 percent of the decline in U.S. and EU final demand was borne by foreign countries, with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and emerging Europe hit hardest. Allowing final demand to change in all countries simultaneously, the framework presented here delivers an elasticity of world trade to GDP of 2.8. Thus, demand forces alone can account for roughly 70 percent of the trade collapse. Large changes in demand for durables play an important role in driving these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose-This paper aims to critically examine China's exchange rate policy debate and discuss Chinese financial and capital control reform of recent years. Furthermore, using the empirical results based on a regional general equilibrium model, alternative methods are suggested of American concerns about China's role in contributing towards global financial stability and American trade deficits with China. Designlmethodology/approach-Regional general equilibrium input.output model. Findings-Sino-American debate on exchange rate policy is a matter of difference of opinion in sequencing of policies China has adopted to reduce capital account control and make her exchange rate regime more flexible. Using the final demand elasticity of exports it is observed that Chinese expansionary fiscal stimuli do have powerful effects in inducing additional exports for the United States and other Chinese trading partners. Research limitations/implications-The model does not include rest-of-the-world economies. Practical implications:-The results imply viable alternatives to renminbi/dollar appreciation policy in dealing with US-China persistent trade deficit. Originality/value-The paper suggests a new, empirical-based policy recommendation in dealing with the US trade deficit with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Governance is becoming increasingly important in development and poverty reduction policies. However, the forms and methods by which it is to be incorporated into donor programs are only emerging at present. In this paper, we contrast two very different approaches—the White House led Millennium Challenge Account (MCA) and DFID’s Drivers of Change (DOC) Approach—to analyzing governance, and compare their theoretical underpinnings. A key factor explaining why these different approaches have been adopted is that for the United States, global poverty reduction is a footnote to its foreign policy and national security agenda, whereas in the United Kingdom, global poverty reduction engages both the national political leadership and the civil society. In conclusion, the paper suggests that enduring contradictions confronted by all donors complicate the treatment of governance in empirically nuanced terms (as DOC attempts to do) while privileging a more universalistic approach like the MCA. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper develops a generalization of the formulas proposed by Kuttner (2001) and others for purposes of measuring the effects of a change in the federal funds target on Treasury yields of different maturities. The generalization avoids the need to condition on the date of the target change and allows for deviations of the effective fed funds rate from the target as well as gradual learning by market participants about the target. The paper shows that parameters estimated solely on the basis of the behavior of the fed funds and fed funds futures can account for the broad calendar regularities in the relation between fed funds futures and Treasury yields of different maturities. Although the methods are new, the conclusion is quite similar to that reported by earlier researchers—changes in the fed funds target seem to be associated with quite large changes in Treasury yields, even for maturities of up to 10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary policy analysts often rely on rules of thumb, such as the Taylor rule, to describe historical monetary policy decisions and to compare current policy with historical norms. Analysis along these lines also permits evaluation of episodes where policy may have deviated from a simple rule and examination of the reasons behind such deviations. One interesting question is whether such rules of thumb should draw on policymakers' forecasts of key variables, such as inflation and unemployment, or on observed outcomes. Importantly, deviations of the policy from the prescriptions of a Taylor rule that relies on outcomes may be the result of systematic responses to information captured in policymakers' own projections. This paper investigates this proposition in the context of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decisions over the past 20 years, using publicly available FOMC projections from the semiannual monetary policy reports to Congress (Humphrey-Hawkins reports). The results indicate that FOMC decisions can indeed be predominantly explained in terms of the FOMC's own projections rather than observed outcomes. Thus, a forecast-based rule of thumb better characterizes FOMC decisionmaking. This paper also confirms that many of the apparent deviations of the federal funds rate from an outcome-based Taylor-style rule may be considered systematic responses to information contained in FOMC projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the history of the federal regulatory oversight of plant agricultural biotechnology in the USA, focusing on the scientific and political forces moulding the continually evolving regulatory structure in place today. Unlike most other jurisdictions, the USA decided to adapt pre-existing legislation to encompass products of biotechnology. In so doing, it established an overarching committee (Office of Science and Technology Policy) to study and distribute various regulatory responsibilities amongst relevant agencies: the Food and Drug Administration, Environmental Protection Agency and US Department of Agriculture. This paper reviews the history and procedures of each agency in the execution of its regulatory duties and investigates the advantages and disadvantages of the US regulatory strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the controversial issue of regional development incentives. Although extensive research has been conducted, a review of the literature gives an inconclusive answer to whether economic incentives are effective. Why do researchers arrive at different conclusions, even after analysing the same programmes? Among the problems that we find, for example, is the fact that for some researchers ‘effective’ means the significant location of new firms in targeted areas, while for others the creation of jobs regardless of whether new firms are arriving in a significant fashion. Furthermore, as we elaborate, the selection of an econometric model will have a significant impact on expected results. Different models, with different limitations, will lead researchers to evaluate the same incentive programme but arrive at different conclusions regarding its effectiveness. The contribution of the paper is to inform policymakers about the potential opportunities and pitfalls when designing incentive strategies. This is particularly relevant, given that both the US and Europe have been promoting incentives as a tool for regional economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

My purpose in this paper is to investigate the extent to which metropolitan economic growth is related to various types of knowledge externalities in high-technology industries in metropolitan areas for the period 1990–1999. The empirical results indicate the relative importance of the effects of high-technology specialisation externalities on metropolitan economic growth. In this paper I also find positive and highly significant evidence of spatial dependence in metropolitan economic growth. This finding suggests that spatial spillover effects in metropolitan economic growth transcend metropolitan boundaries. From the convergence point of view, I have not found significant evidence of absolute convergence for the period. However, after controlling for structural characteristics determining metropolitan economic growth, I have found significant evidence of convergence for the period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of ‘securitization’ has become particularly influential in the post-9/11 world. This paper aims to scrutinize and, ultimately, reject an emerging set of claims about political economy which draw upon this framework. The contention that US foreign economic policy is increasingly subject to a process of securitization misrepresents the substance of contemporary US foreign policy, the political environment in which it is articulated and the process by which it is made. Pursuing this argument, the paper sets out a framework within which to understand the evolution of contemporary US policy, paying attention to distinctive forms of the economic–security nexus; the form of ‘ad hoc reactivism’ that has consistently characterized US foreign economic policy; the set of commercial and wider economic goals to which policy responds; and the dynamics of competition for leadership in key regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the developmental trade-offs involved in multilateral versus regional-bilateral strategies of integration into the international economy. I contrast the regulations that guide policy in the areas of trade, investment, and intellectual property in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and in regional-bilateral agreements between the US and developing countries. Both strategies of integration feature similar trade-offs, in that developing countries gain increased market access and opportunities for specialization in exchange for diminished space for use of industrial policy instruments to create new productive capacities. However, the trade-offs are intensified in the case of regional-bilateral agreements: countries receive more market access, but in exchange make significantly deeper concessions regarding the management of inward investment and intellectual policy. I argue that countries whose integration into the international economy is guided by their obligations as members of the WTO still have opportunities to implement industrial strategies that are designed to alter comparative advantages and achieve upward mobility in the international economic order, but the obligations under the regional-bilateral strategy greatly circumscribe these options. The paper thus points to the need for new terms of reference in the debate over ‘policy space’ in the international political economy. In analyzing contemporary development strategies, the most useful contrast is not between the alternatives that countries have under the WTO and the alternatives that countries had in the past under the WTO's predecessors, but between a constraining multilateral environment and even more constraining regional and bilateral environments that condition increased market access on the sacrifice of the very tools that countries have historically used to capture the developmental benefits of integration into the international economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - This paper examines the monetary thought of Arthur Kitson (1861-1937) as expressed in his published works and in recently discovered answers he submitted in 1922 to a questionnaire from Thomas Edison, the US inventor. Design/methodology/approach - Both original source material from the Edison Archive and published sources are used to examine the subject. Findings - It is found that Kitson's monetary thought is more orthodox than has previously been claimed by, among others, John Maynard Keynes, and more recently in the economics literature. It is also found that Kitson was the only person to support, without qualification, Edison's plan to reform the US monetary system. Originality/value - This paper casts a new light on Kitson's monetary thought showing the influence of Irving Fisher on Kitson. The paper also presents Edison's questionnaire and Kitson's contributory thoughts on a fiat monetary standard that the questionnaire stimulated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the concepts of vertical fiscal imbalance (the fiscal gap) and horizontal fiscal imbalance (equalization) and uses several statistics to measure these concepts for the eight developed federal countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States. Although the periods covered and the detail provided vary from country to country because of limitations in data availability, the overall coverage in this paper seems more complete and comparable than in previous studies. The paper also outlines briefly the types of intergovernmental fiscal transfers used to deal with fiscal imbalances in the eight countries under consideration. Although this account is necessarily highly condensed, given the complexity of transfer systems in most countries, the frequency with which changes are made, and the difficulty of obtaining complete information, it is nonetheless broadly accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the time-varying and asymmetric co-movement of CEE equity markets with the US stock markets around the subprime crisis and the resulting global financial crisis. The econometric approach adopted is based on recent development of time-varying copulas. For that, we propose a new class of time-varying copulas that allows for long memory behavior in both marginal and joint distributions. Our empirical approach relies on the flexibility and usefulness of bivariate copulas that allow to model not only the dynamic co-movement through time but also to account for any extreme interaction, nonlinearity and asymmetry in the co-movement patterns. The time-varying dependence structure can be also modeled conditionally on the economic policy uncertainty index of the crisis country. Empirical results show strong evidence of co-movement between the US and CEE equity markets and find that the co-movement exhibits large time-variations and asymmetry in the tails of the return distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the US economy is not entering a new era of prosperity, mainly because the rote of profit remains 30-40% below its earlier postwar peaks, in spite of a 20% reduction of real wages since the early 1970s Under these conditions, real wages are unlikely to increase very much (if at all) in the years ahead. The paper also argues that an important reason for the acceleration of growth in the US economy since 1995 is a large and rapidly increasing net inflow of foreign capital (which also precipitated the worsening depression in Asia).The final section argues that the chances of a recession in the US in 1999 are high, and that such a depression would probably propel the world capitalist economy into deep depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Four essentially independent conceptions of the population problem are visible in current discussions. One is derived from macroeconomics, one from microeconomics, one from the health sciences, and one from ethical concerns about the just relation between man and nature. After describing these conceptions, this paper addresses the population problem principally using the economic definitions. It cites five reasons why discussions of the economic hazards posed by population growth have become markedly less alarmist in the past decade. Failures of highly quantified input-output models to account for human progress are emphasized. The paper presents examples of how technical demography has shed light on the dimensions of and solutions to the population problem and concludes with a brief discussion of contemporary population problems in the U.S. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial recruitment is often portrayed by economic development scholars as an inferior or ‘second-best’ strategy to those that promote ‘home-grown’ enterprise. But this characterization overlooks improvements to industry recruitment that state and local agencies have adopted in recent decades and the underlying factors that contribute to this effort. Drawing on two case studies of strategic industrial recruitment in the U.S. South, this paper makes the case for industrial recruitment as embedded practice—rooted in placespecific contexts, adaptive and open to change, and governed by a range of institutional actors. The result is both a more strategic approach to local industrial recruitment, and also one designed to complement—not undermine—other local economic development practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strategic planning started in the U.S. as a corporate planning endeavor. By the 1960's, it had become a major corporate management tool in the Fortune 500. At fi rst, it was seen as a way of interweaving policies, values and purposes with management, resources and market information in a way that held the organization together. By the 1950's, the concept was simplified somewhat to focus on SWOT as a way of keeping the corporation afloat in a more turbulent world. The public sector has been under pressure for a long time to become more efficient, effective and responsive. Many have felt that the adoption of business practices would help to accomplish that. One tool borrowed from business has been strategic planning. At the local government level, strategic planning became popular starting in the 1980's, and the community's planning office was called on to lead the endeavor. The planning office was often the advocate of the process. Urban planning offices had been doing long-range plans for decades, but with accelerating urban change a more rapid action-oriented response was desired. The paper describes this history and process in the East Lansing, Michigan, U.S., where comprehensive community plans are the result of a multi-year visioning process and call for action- oriented, strategies for targeted parts of the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The term 'science park' evokes a "you know it when you see it" consensus among policy experts. Although the function of science parks is broadly understood as collaborative applied research between universities, industry, and governments, the physical and institutional form of these 'cooperative research centers' shows significant variation. In this paper I present a typology of such centers in the current US context and discuss how they are changing. Using evidence from one high-tech industry, I underscore the agglomerated nature of basic and applied science--a key argument in the rethinking of decisions around public investments in scientific spaces. Finally, I conclude that US innovation policy is shifting to a more explicitly metropolitan orientation, recognizing the importance of proximity and agglomeration. Implicit in this shift is a reevaluation of the geography of public investment in technology infrastructure as it pertains to cities and regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both countries and subnational governments commonly engage in competition for mobile capital, offering generous incentives to attract investment. Existing economics research has suggested that these tax incentives have a limited ability to affect investment patterns and are often excessively costly when measured against the amount of investment and jobs created. In this paper, we argue instead that the 'competition' for capital can be politically beneficial to incumbent politicians. Building off work on electoral pandering, we argue that incentives allow politicians to take credit for firms' investment decisions. We test the empirical implications of this theory using a nationwide Internet survey, which employs a randomized experiment to test how voters evaluate the performance of incumbent US governors. Our findings illustrate a critical political benefit of offering such incentives. Politicians can use these incentives to take credit for investment flowing into their districts and to minimize the political fallout when investors choose to locate elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a critical overview of Australian, Chinese, and American perspectives on trilateralism, with a detailed discussion of Australian debates on the matter. Its aim is to trace the evolution of the changing discourse on the rise of China, examine major debates in Australia, and provide both an intellectual background and an overview for this special issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political scientists have examined how domestic politics and the competition for international capital affect the setting of national tax rates. In this paper, I explore how political institutions, specifically the level of democracy, affect firm-level taxation across the world. I argue that electoral competition leads democratic governments to higher levels of taxation of firms. Using a data set on firm tax payments on the foreign affiliates of US multinational corporations from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, I show that there are large variations within countries on the tax burdens faced by firms that are not explained by national tax rates. I find evidence that the mobility of the specific investment project, the types of spillovers these investments provide to a community, and attributes of the parent firm are all important determinants of taxation. While firm-level factors clearly affect corporate taxation, I argue that democratic institutions limit the offering of tax incentives and generate electoral benefits to policing tax avoidance by multinational corporations. After controlling for parent firm and foreign affiliate-level factors, I find that democratic countries generate as much as 26% more tax revenues from multinational corporations relative to authoritarian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The telecommunications industry has a great ripple effect on the overall national economy. However, there is no consensus about what is the optimal regulation policy for the telecommunications industry. Regulations on the telecommunications industry are different by region (i.e. United States, European Union and Asia). A number of studies have been conducted on comparative efficiency analysis for different policies that apply stochastic frontier analysis or data envelope analysis. However, these comparative studies are inappropriate because the production functions for each region are not identical. Thus, this paper addresses meta-frontier methodology, which can reflect differences in production functions. The results indicate that the United States has the highest meta-frontier efficiency in contrast to previous research findings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Commercial air transport in rural and remote areas of the United States has a long history. After the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, carriers were free to serve any cities and routes they wished. In anticipation of carriers gravitating toward large urban markets, the Essential Air Service (EAS) program was created to maintain commercial service in smaller and more geographically isolated locales throughout the United States. EAS has been continuously funded since 1978, but has recently attracted the attention of many fiscal hawks. Serving only six passengers per flight, on average, with costs approaching $200 million, there are long held concerns that EAS is a poor use of federal monies. The purpose of this paper is to highlight costs of the EAS program and identify systemic inefficiencies in the allocation of EAS resources. We show that service redundancies exist, with EAS markets being cannibalized by both peer EAS airports and other commercial alternatives. Further, we highlight strategic consolidation possibilities for EAS allocations and services, facilitating federal appropriations reduction without sacrificing existing geographic service needs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Several studies in psychology and economics have demonstrated that the average cognitive ability (talent) of people living in a society affects the economic development of the society. There is, however, reason to expect that the economic development of societies depends not just on the average level of talent but also on the allocation of talent in society — societies that allocate people with different talents more efficiently should be more successful in economic terms. Efficient allocation of talent means that people with higher ability do jobs of higher complexity. The present paper constructed several measures of allocation of talent and analyzed their effect on the economic growth rate of countries and U.S. states. Overall, the analyses support the idea that the countries and states that have a better allocation of talent exhibit higher levels of economic growth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Because of several policy distortions, including import-substitution industrialization, widespread government intervention, and both domestic and international competitive barriers, there has been a general presumption that Latin America has been much less productive than the leading economies in the last decades. In this paper we show, however, that until the late 1970s Latin American countries had high productivity levels relative to the United States. It is only after the late 1970s that we observe a fast decrease of relative total factor productivity (TFP) in Latin America. We also show that the inclusion of human capital in the production function makes a crucial difference in the TFP calculations for Latin America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is the only technology available to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from large-scale fossil fuel usage. U.S. and China are the world’s largest GHG emitters. Collaboration between the two nations, therefore, offers the greatest opportunity for achieving meaningful reductions in global GHG emissions. Two countries’ current cooperation on CCS through Clean Energy Research Center based on the U.S.–China Strategic Forum on Clean Energy Cooperation mechanism provides an important initial step towards even closer and stronger cooperation in the future. In this paper, we justify such possibility by discourse on the seemly different but complementary social–political context in two countries including political system, government structure, economic policy, national innovation system, energy strategy, and energy market structure. We further address the key elements of future cooperation model by carefully considering the principle of equality and mutual beneficiary, the role of two countries in the whole value chain according to their comparative advantages, and the scale and mechanism of the funding. A milestone for the cooperation until 2030 is drafted and priority areas for both countries in the cooperation are identified. Such cooperation will provide the imperative leadership for global climate change and speed up the global CCS deployment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The European Union (EU) and United States (US) are the world’s two largest and most influential legal jurisdictions for corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A). The pressures of international economic competition have lead to a flurry of M & A activity in these locales in the post-Cold War period. Given the economic impact and, in many cases, political sensitivity of some M&As, it has become critical that transatlantic regulators reach similar decisions with regard to M&A approval, denial, or modification. Incongruent decisions lead to uncertainty in the marketplace, and the possible loss of global economic competitiveness and respect for regulatory processes and outcomes. In this paper, we explore the efforts made by the US and EU over the past two decades to enhance cooperation in merger policies and processes. We argue that, despite a couple of high-profile cases to the contrary, the US and EU have made great strides in reducing uncertainty in the M&A regulatory process by institutionalizing a series of formal agreements and working groups that have served to provide the foundation for a transatlantic merger environment that may serve as a model for cross-border regulatory cooperation in the twenty-first century. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: This study details the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission''s significant price discovery regulatory authority over exempt, over-the-counter contracts, as introduced in 2008. A vector autoregressive model is used to conclude that three cash-settled natural gas contracts traded on the IntercontinentalExchange are significant price discovery contracts (SPDCs). Thus, this study demonstrates the methods’ use in analyzing the new financial policy authority and other similar and evolving policies. The paper also discusses some of the policy implications of the SPDC determinations. Lastly, the authors address the transition of the Commission''s SPDC authority as a result of the passage of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, which was signed into law in July 2010. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper explores the response of the divorce rate to law reforms introducing unilateral divorce after controlling for law reforms concerning the aftermath of divorce, which are omitted from most previous studies. We introduce two main policy changes that have swept the US since the late 1970s: the approval of the joint custody regime and the Child Support Enforcement program. Because those reforms affect divorce decisions by counteracting the reallocation of property rights generated by the unilateral divorce procedure and by increasing the expected financial costs of divorce, it is arguable that their omissions might obscure the impact of unilateral divorce reforms on divorce rates. After allowing for changes in laws concerning the aftermath of divorce, we find that the positive impact of unilateral divorce reforms on divorce rates does not vanish over time, suggesting that the Coase theorem may not apply to changes in divorce laws. Supplemental analysis, developed to examine the frequency of permanent shocks in US divorce rates, indicates that the positive permanent changes in divorce rates can be associated with the implementation of unilateral divorce reforms and that the negative permanent changes can be related to the law reforms concerning living arrangements in the aftermath of divorce. This seems to confirm the important role of these policies in the evolution of divorce rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Viewing broad middle class economic losses from the Great Recession as an accident leads many to imagine that a return to pre-recession policies and practices will restore this group's economic prosperity. Another perspective views these losses as part of a larger pattern of economic and political disenfranchisement directed toward the American middle class. To the extent that those who benefit from an event might be recognized as having a hand in its creation, insight into the values and beliefs held by this recession's beneficiaries may prove useful in designing policy changes needed to stem or reverse the continued enactment of these wider goals. This paper offers that insight: using responses to an original survey administered to faculty at major research universities across the United States in 2008–2009, certain values and beliefs held by academics across many departments and disciplines may be observed. Three interdependent elements pertaining to citizen democracy including population well-being, tolerance of contest and dissent, and citizen controlled majority rule are explored. The flip side of each—support and justification for hierarchy and inequality, intolerance of dissent, and valuing business dominance and power over citizen democracy—are often found in business operations today. Academics in business schools show stronger support for these latter values than do faculty in other fields; as business has emerged as a clear beneficiary from the Great Recession, this ideology may usefully serve as a reverse guide to policy change if greater equality in population well-being, and increased citizen-controlled democracy, are desired. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]