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Climate change, originating from greenhouse gas emissions, yields profound implications such as escalated temperatures, severe storms, disruptions in food supply chains, and amplified seismic activity, particularly impacting arid regions. As the world's largest economy and the second-largest CO2 emitter, the United States actively leads initiatives aimed at addressing environmental challenges and aligning with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13. This study delves into the determinants shaping renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions within the United States, aiming to elucidate their pivotal role in advancing carbon neutrality efforts. Using quarterly data spanning from 1990 to 2020, this investigation employs the time-varying TVP-SV-VAR model to dissect the dynamic interplay among these variables. The findings reveal intricate connections across short, medium, and long-term periods: renewable energy adoption, eco-innovations, and uncertainties in climate policy were observed to mitigate CO2 emissions. Conversely, financial development exhibited a consistent association with increased CO2 emissions across all timeframes. Additionally, the progression of renewable energy sources showcased responsiveness to climate policy uncertainties, eco-innovations, and financial development across each timeframe. These outcomes hold substantial implications for the United States' pursuit of carbon neutrality goals, emphasizing the pivotal role of promoting renewable energy initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores a backlash against the net zero greenhouse gas emissions target within the UK. It introduces the term "anti-net zero populism" to analyse ideological and opportunistic counter-movements working to undermine climate policy. It builds a conceptual framework based on the literatures on "policy dismantling" and "discursive opportunity structures" to analyse how right-wing populists seek to undermine the net zero goal and dismantle policies. The article compares these efforts across six specific policy areas involved in pursuing net zero. Overall, it contributes to understanding the roles of discourse for policy dismantling, and the comparative strategies pursued to undermine net zero. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To align with climate initiatives, multiple reporting programs are transitioning from generic activity-based emission factors to site-specific measured emissions data to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at oil and gas facilities. This study contemporaneously deployed two top-down (TD) aerial methods across 14 midstream facilities, building upon previous research in the field. The methods produced multiple whole-facility estimates at each facility, resulting in 773 individual paired estimates (same facility, same day), and robust mean estimates for each facility. Mean estimates for each facility, aggregated across all facilities, differed by nearly 2:1 (49% [32% to 69%]). At 6 of 14 facilities, the methods produced mean estimates that differed by more than a factor of two. These data suggest that one or both methods did not produce accurate facility-level estimates at a majority of facilities and in aggregate across all facilities. The overall results are augmented with two case studies where TD estimates at two pre-selected facilities were coupled with comprehensive onsite measurements to understand the factors driving the divergence between TD and bottom-up (BU) emissions estimates. In 3 of 4 paired comparisons between the intensive onsite estimates and one of the TD methods, the intensive onsite surveys did not conclusively diagnose the difference in estimates. In these cases, our work suggests that the TD methods mis-estimate emissions an unknown fraction of the time, for unknown reasons. While two methods were selected for this study, it is unlikely that the issues identified here are confined to these two methods; similar issues may exist for other similar whole-facility methods on midstream and/or other facility types. These findings have important implications for the construction of voluntary and regulatory reporting programs that rely on emission estimates for reporting fees or penalties, or for studies using whole-facility estimates to aggregate TD emissions to basin or regional estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its atmospheric concentration has increased by almost 50 % since the beginning of the industrial era, causing climate change. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for most of the atmospheric CO2 increase, which originates to a large extent from localized sources such as power stations. Independent estimates of the emissions from these sources are key to tracking the effectiveness of implemented climate policies to mitigate climate change. We developed an automatic procedure to quantify CO2 emissions from localized sources based on a cross-sectional mass-balance approach and applied it to infer CO2 emissions from the Bełchatów Power Station (Poland) using atmospheric observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) in its snapshot area map (SAM) mode. As a result of the challenge of identifying CO2 emission plumes from satellite data with adequate accuracy, we located and constrained the shape of emission plumes using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 column densities. We automatically analysed all available OCO-3 overpasses over the Bełchatów Power Station from July 2019 to November 2022 and found a total of nine that were suitable for the estimation of CO2 emissions using our method. The mean uncertainty in the obtained estimates was 5.8 Mt CO 2 yr -1 (22.0 %), mainly driven by the dispersion of the cross-sectional fluxes downwind of the source, e.g. due to turbulence. This dispersion uncertainty was characterized using a semivariogram, made possible by the OCO-3 imaging capability over a target region in SAM mode, which provides observations containing plume information up to several tens of kilometres downwind of the source. A bottom-up emission estimate was computed based on the hourly power-plant-generated power and emission factors to validate the satellite-based estimates. We found that the two independent estimates agree within their 1σ uncertainty in eight out of nine analysed overpasses and have a high Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.92. Our results confirm the potential to monitor large localized CO2 emission sources from space-based observations and the usefulness of NO2 estimates for plume detection. They also illustrate the potential to improve CO2 monitoring capabilities with the planned Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) satellite constellation, which will provide simultaneously retrieved XCO2 and NO2 maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of different external forcings on regional temperature changes in China and constraining future changes is important for formulating targeted climate mitigation policies. We conducted a detection and attribution analysis to examine the effects of different external forcings on the differences in warming across China and seven subregions. This analysis spanned from 1965 to 2014 and used observations as well as data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The signals of anthropogenic (ANT) forcing can be detected and separated from natural (NAT) forcing in all regions, and the effect of greenhouse gases are found to account for a significant portion of the observed warming in these regions. In the Yangtze River Basin, southeast China and southwest China, the observed warming trends are lower than other subregions. This can be attributed to the relatively weak impact of greenhouse gases, resulting in a temperature increase of only 0.51°C in the Yangtze River Basin, which accounts for 48.57% of the observed warming. While both southeast China and southwest China experience a cooling effect of aerosols, leading to temperature decreases of 0.20 and 0.53°C, respectively, even though the signal of aerosol forcing is not detected. In terms of future projection, the use of attribution constraint approach effectively corrects the biases of the CMIP6 model simulation and reduces projection uncertainty in China and most subregions under the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5. The Tibetan Plateau has the largest reduction of the uncertainty range among seven subregions, with the decrease of 39.02% under SSP2‐4.5 scenario in the long‐term (2081–2098). In addition, north China and southwest China will experience the highest and lowest warming in the long‐term (2081–2098) after attribution constraints, increasing by 3.41 and 2.14°C, respectively, under SSP2‐4.5 scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ghana continuously suffers from the impact of the climate change crisis despite its minimal global carbon contributions. Although Ghana has instituted some climate change policies and general environmental regulations, it has not yet promulgated a Climate Change Act to aid the regulation of climate change mitigation, especially of corporations that are the major emitters of global greenhouse gas emissions. This article examines the climate change regulation of corporations in Ghana and its effectiveness in addressing climate change challenges. It assesses the country's international climate change profile and the role of corporations in contributing to its carbon emissions, evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of Ghana's general environmental regulation and discusses alternative regulatory frameworks such as judicial, market and surrogate regulation for managing climate change impacts in the absence of statutory climate change regulation. Further, this article looks beyond the presence of a statutory climate change regulation and examines the potential structuring of climate change regulation in Ghana. The article argues that the traditional command and control regulatory system will be unsuitable for effective regulation of the climate change participation of corporations in Ghana, and instead proposes the adoption of the Dilute Interventionism approach supported by a Veto Firewall system for this purpose. The article argues that these concepts present a practical and effective approach to regulating corporations' involvement in climate change mitigation in Ghana. However, the successful implementation of this approach will require political will, corporate compliance, and technical capacity. This article provides policymakers, stakeholders and interested parties in Ghana and beyond with useful insights to address climate change challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity (BD) strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for BD protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for BD protection according to the EU 10% protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426–452 TgC) and sequestration potential (− 12 to − 17.5 TgCO2eq a−1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. The results of the study can be utilized for integrating climate and BD policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

California has large and diverse biomass resources and provides a pertinent example of how biomass use is changing and needs to change, in the face of climate mitigation policies. As in other areas of the world, California needs to optimize its use of biomass and waste to meet environmental and socioeconomic objectives. We used a systematic review to assess biomass use pathways in California and the associated impacts on climate and air quality. Biomass uses included the production of renewable fuels, electricity, biochar, compost, and other marketable products. For those biomass use pathways recently developed, information is available on the effects—usually beneficial—on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and there is some, but less, published information on the effects on criteria pollutants. Our review identifies 34 biomass use pathways with beneficial impacts on either GHG or pollutant emissions, or both—the "good." These included combustion of forest biomass for power and conversion of livestock‐associated biomass to biogas by anaerobic digestion. The review identified 13 biomass use pathways with adverse impacts on GHG emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, or both—the "bad." Wildfires are an example of one out of eight pathways which were found to be bad for both climate and air quality, while only two biomass use pathways reduced GHG emissions relative to an identified counterfactual but had adverse air quality impacts. Issues of high interest for the "future" included land management to reduce fire risk, future policies for the dairy industries, and full life‐cycle analysis of biomass production and use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After tentative efforts during the 1990s, the past two decades have seen a rapid increase in the number of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation policies, initially in a few frontrunner countries and more recently spreading globally. Over the same period, GHG emissions have continued to rise, but the rate of growth has recently slowed. Are mitigation policies having an effect? To explore this question, we review and synthesize the empirical literature on the impact of mitigation policies on three key outcomes: GHG emissions, proximate emission drivers like energy intensity and land use, and low-carbon technologies. Our key contribution to the available literature lies in establishing an empirically based track record of climate action, focusing on methodologically sound ex post studies. We find that mitigation policies have had a discernible impact on emissions and multiple emission drivers. Most notably, they have led to reductions in energy use, declines in deforestation rates, as well as cost reductions and capacity expansions of low-carbon technologies in many instances. Furthermore, implemented policies to date are likely to have reduced global emissions by several billion tons of CO2eq per year compared to a world without mitigation policies. In the light of current ambitions on climate action falling short of what is required to limit global warming to the Paris temperature goals, we conclude that there is ample evidence of policy instruments with demonstrable impacts, but that efforts need to be hugely strengthened and expanded. Also, far more attention is required to policy monitoring, evaluation, and learning so as to strengthen the basis for future policy and the attribution of its impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate global monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO2) is essential for understanding climate change and informing policy decisions. This study compares column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) between ACOS_L2_Lite_FP V9r for Japan's Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), OCO-2_L2_Lite_FP V10r for the USA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), and IAPCAS V2.0 for China's Carbon Dioxide Observation Satellite (TANSAT) collectively referred to as GOT, with data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Our findings are as follows: (1) Significant data quantity differences exist between OCO-2 and the other satellites, with OCO-2 boasting a data volume 100 times greater. GOT shows the highest data volume between 30–45°N and 20–30°S, but data availability is notably lower near the equator. (2) XCO2 from GOT exhibits similar seasonal variations, with lower concentrations during June, July, and August (JJA) (402.72–403.74 ppm) and higher concentrations during December, January, and February (DJF) (405.74–407.14 ppm). XCO2 levels are higher in the Northern Hemisphere during March, April, and May (MAM) and DJF, while slightly lower during JJA and September, October, and November (SON). (3) The differences in XCO2 (ΔXCO2) reveal that ΔXCO2 between OCO-2 and TANSAT are minor (−0.47 ± 0.28 ppm), whereas the most significant difference is observed between GOSAT and TANSAT (−1.13 ± 0.15 ppm). Minimal differences are seen in SON (with the biggest difference between GOSAT and TANSAT: −0.84 ± 0.12 ppm), while notable differences occur in DJF (with the biggest difference between GOSAT and TANSAT: −1.43 ± 0.17 ppm). Regarding latitudinal variations, distinctions between OCO-2 and TANSAT are most pronounced in JJA and SON. (4) Compared to TCCON, XCO2 from GOT exhibits relatively high determination coefficients (R2 > 0.8), with GOSAT having the highest root mean square error (RMSE = 1.226 ppm, <1.5 ppm), indicating a strong relationship between ground-based observed and retrieved values. This research contributes significantly to our understanding of the spatial characteristics of global XCO2. Furthermore, it offers insights that can inform the analysis of differences in the inversion of carbon sources and sinks within assimilation systems when incorporating XCO2 data from satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. Its atmospheric concentration has increased by almost 50% since the beginning of the industrial era, causing climate change. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for most of the atmospheric CO2 increase, which originates to a large extent from localized sources such as power stations. Independent estimates of the emissions from these sources are key to tracking the effectiveness of implemented climate policies to mitigate climate change. We developed a procedure to quantify CO2 emissions from localized sources based on a cross-sectional mass-balance approach and applied it to infer CO2 emissions from the Bełchatów Power Station, in Poland, using atmospheric observations from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) in its Snapshot Area Map (SAM) mode. As a result of the challenge of identifying CO2 emission plumes from satellite data with adequate accuracy, we located and constrained the shape of emission plumes using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) NO2 column densities. We analysed all available OCO-3 overpasses over the Bełchatów Power Station from July 2019 to November 2022 and found a total of 9 that were suitable for the estimation of CO2 emissions using our method. The mean uncertainty of the obtained estimates was 5.8 Mt CO2y-1 (22.0%), mainly driven by the dispersion of the cross-sectional fluxes downwind of the source, e.g. due to turbulence. This dispersion uncertainty was characterized using a semivariogram, possible thanks to the OCO-3 imaging capability over a target region in SAM mode, which provides observations containing plume information up to several tens of kilometres downwind of the source. A bottom-up emission estimate was computed based on the hourly power plant generated power and emission factors to validate the satellite-based estimates. We found that the two independent estimates agree within their 1σ uncertainty in 8 out of 9 analysed overpasses and have a high Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.92. Our results confirm the potential for monitoring large localized CO2 emission sources from space-based observations and the usefulness of NO2 estimates for plume detection. They illustrate as well the potential to improve CO2 monitoring capabilities with the planned Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) satellite constellation, which will provide simultaneously retrieved XCO2 and NO2 maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge about how implemented policy instruments have performed is important for designing effective and efficient policy instruments that contribute to reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper carries out a meta-evaluation of ex-post evaluations of climate policy instruments in the freight transport sector. By analysing the outcomes and quality of evaluations, the aim is to identify whether estimated effects of policy instruments can be compared between evaluations and if the results are appropriate to use for evidence-based decision making. To analyse these aspects, commonly applied evaluation criteria are assessed and classified according to an assessment scale. We confirm that few ex-post evaluations are carried out and that there is a gap between evaluation theory and how ex-post policy evaluations are performed in practice, where evaluation criteria recommended in policy evaluation guidelines are found to often be neglected in evaluations. The result is a lack of systematic climate policy evaluation which hinders reliable conclusions about the effect of policy instruments. There is a need for more systematic monitoring and evaluation of implemented policy instruments and we suggest that evidence-based decision making can be improved by adjusting current policy evaluation guidelines and by introducing an evaluation obligation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the state of climate policy in the face of multiple crises and opportunities for system transformations. While global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise and geopolitical tensions are high, there have been positive developments such as the falling costs of clean energy technologies and the increasing role of various actors in climate finance. Climate policy is increasingly integrating with sustainable development goals and adaptation planning, although more action and international climate finance are needed. The article also highlights the growth and impact of the Climate Policy journal, which has covered a wide range of topics and seen an increase in quality and submissions. The outgoing editors express gratitude to the reviewers, associate editors, and editorial board members, and welcome the incoming editors-in-chief. [Extracted from the article]

Projects and their Environmental Impact Assessments should take account of global cumulative impacts such as those associated with Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The emissions induce the climate emergency which is a major determinant of public health and much else. This opinion paper identifies some challenges and improvements that could be made in current policy, procedure, and methods for mitigating the climate emergency in airport expansion. It does so by analysing the Environmental Statement for the Leeds and Bradford Airport expansion plan, together with existing international, national, and local climate change policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Everyone knows there is a climate crisis at hand and that humankind is to blame. Drastic measures are needed now to arrest human-induced climate change from greenhouse gas emissions. Or maybe not. The first part of this article will show that prevailing narratives and public perceptions of climate change are distorted by a series of exaggerations. The second part of the article examines efforts to link climate change to US national security. And the final part of the article explains why current climate policies pose a greater threat to US national security than the climate does. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal combustion is the largest source of power in India at the moment. This combustion also emits trace amounts of hazardous substances such as mercury. Mercury is a global pollutant with the potential for long-range transport and ability to persist in the environment, bioaccumulate and cause toxicity. Controlling emissions of mercury from coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) is recognized by the Minamata Convention on Mercury as an important step in curbing the harmful effects of mercury to the environment and humans. India has been identified as one of the top emitters of mercury to the atmosphere, and coal combustion contributes to more than half of these emissions. Here, we discuss the current state of regulations on mercury emissions from CFPPs in India, the current information on mercury from CFPP stacks, and the possible way forward. Present data suggest that mercury specific emission control technologies are not required to comply with the regulatory requirements. As such, any reduction in mercury emissions will rely on co-benefits obtained from technologies to control emissions of other pollutants such as flue gas desulphurization, or methods to increase the efficiencies of CFPP such as coal washing. Additional reductions may be made from a business-as-usual scenario if the energy mix of India changes to renewable non-fossil fuel-based energy at an accelerated pace. Quantitative studies assessing the role of such climate change policies on mercury emissions reduction are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the urgency of responding to climate change and the insufficiency of current demand-side policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions become clearer, supply-side initiatives are beginning to gain prominence and acceptance globally. Policies such as moratoria and compensation for leaving fossil fuels unextracted in exchange for financial compensation of rights owners are likely to be effective and complementary to existing policies. A number of unknowns remain regarding the operationalization of supply-side policies, such as how to establish a binding international agreement and how to raise and allocate financial compensation for nonextraction. Nevertheless, the need for supply-side policies only emphasizes the importance of imaginative and bold initiatives within the current conjuncture of global environmental politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the effects derived from the application of local policies and measures on the update of the circulating vehicle fleet of the city of Madrid in terms of greenhouse gases and urban pollutants emissions. The identification of said effects has been possible thanks to the use of Vehicle Fleet Characterization Studies (VFCS), which have been applied to Madrid for the last 10 years. It explores the evolution of several indicators, such as fleet age or urban emissions, through the analysis of the results obtained in the VFCS performed in 2013, 2017 and 2022. These studies help decisively in the evaluation of traffic emissions, thus being a compelling tool in the elaboration of the urban inventories. They constitute a cornerstone in the assessment of the city environmental issues and the decision-making process to reduce the environmental impact and minimize transport-related problems. The results show that the renovation of the fleet has diminished the emission of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, improving the air quality. However, the emissions of carbon dioxide stay almost unaffected, which suggests that the climate change policies should be oriented towards the decarbonization of the road traffic, mainly by switching to electric vehicles or low-carbon fuels. [Display omitted] • Vehicle fleet characterization as a useful analysis to develop local policies • Analyzing effects of local environmental policies or designing new ones • Emissions reduction: 42 % for NO x , 48 % for PM 2.5 and 8 % for CO 2 (average fleet) • Hybrids and low-emitting fuels have increased its presence in a combined 16 % • Air quality has greatly improved, but the impacts on climate change are still high [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the primary contributors to climate change. Addressing and mitigating climate change necessitates the effective management and utilization of renewable energy consumption, which poses a substantial challenge for the forthcoming decades. This study explores the dynamic effects of service value added (SVA) and renewable energy on environmental quality, particularly focusing on CO2 emissions. Unlike previous studies, we employ a non-parametric modeling approach to uncover the time-varying influence of service sector growth on CO2 emissions. Specifically, we apply the local linear dummy variable estimation (LLDVE) method to a panel of the 17 highest-emitting nations over the period 1980–2021. Our study uncovers a non-linear relationship between CO2 emissions and SVA. From 1980 to 2003, we observe a negative correlation. However, starting from 2005 to 2020, we witness a shift towards a positive correlation, indicating a rise in energy consumption within the service sector. The results indicate that significant emitter economies have yet to achieve sustainability, with the service sector continuing to contribute to pollution. Addressing this issue necessitates more robust climate change policies and increased investment in clean energy, specifically targeting the service sector, including buildings and transport. • The dynamic effects of service value added on CO2 emissions are investigated for the 17 highest-emitting nations. • A non-parametric approach known as local linear dummy variable estimation is applied. • The study verified the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve. • A nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions and the service value added is revealed. • Robust climate policies are needed, emphasizing more clean energy investments in services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The German Federal Climate Change Act includes binding annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets for the economic sectors energy, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture and waste. For sectors that fail to meet their targets, climate policy measures have to be implemented immediately. However, some sectors may only have achieved their targets thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, while others may have missed their targets because of COVID-19. For policy making, it is therefore important to disentangle the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic from the effects of policy and other drivers on emissions. In this paper, the effects of the pandemic on GHG emissions in Germany in 2020 are estimated at the national level and at the levels of the economic sectors. Counterfactual emissions are estimated here based on autoregressive econometric models, thereby distinguishing between different factors of emissions based on decomposition analysis. The findings at the national level suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic lowered GHG emissions in 2020 in Germany by about 41 Mt CO2-eq (5.15%) compared to counterfactual emissions. Accordingly, about 58% of the reduction in emissions between 2019 and 2020 in Germany may be attributed to the pandemic. The findings at the sectoral level imply that without the COVID-19 pandemic, all sectors with the exception of the transport sector, would have met their emissions target in 2020 as set in the Federal Climate Change Act. The transport sector would have missed its emission target in 2020 without COVID-19, suggesting that existing policies were not strong enough to bend the curve of emissions trends sufficiently down. In contrast, the buildings sector failed to meet its target in 2020 because of COVID-19, prompting immediate climate policy measures in this sector. The COVID-19 pandemic lowered greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany in 2020 by 5.5% compared to counterfactual emissions and accounted for about 58% of total estimated reductions between 2019 and 2020. Without COVID-19, all sectors but the transport sector would have met their emissions targets. Climate policy response should take into account the effects of extraordinary events like COVID-19 suppressing GHG emissions based on counterfactual emissions because failure to implement measures early on may turn out to be costly in the medium term once the transitory emissions reductions no longer occur. Counterfactual emissions should be considered prior to crediting emissions surplus or deficit to subsequent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Green Deal is the cornerstone of a comprehensive strategic package (European Green Deal Strategic Framework, EGDSF) which aims at transforming the EU into a climate-neutral and competitive economy by 2050. The present paper analyses the EGDSF policy design and investigates how it will affect EU environmental policy. It highlights that environmental policy areas are not characterized by the same level of ambition and are not equally equipped in terms of legislative initiatives (setting regulatory and economic instruments) to deliver on that ambition. When considering both these aspects, the policy areas of climate and energy (including GHG emissions from transport) emerge as the driving force of the EGDSF. Instead, in the biodiversity policy area, there is an evident mismatch between environmental objectives and legislative initiatives, which, in the long term, could jeopardize the achievement of all the key EGD goals, given their indivisibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Negative emissions techniques (NETs) promise to capture greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and sequester them. Since decarbonisation efforts have been slow, and the climate crisis is intensifying, it is increasingly likely that removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will be necessary to meet internationally-agreed targets. Yet there are fears that pursuing NETs might undermine other mitigation efforts, primarily the reduction (rather than removal) of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the risk of this phenomenon, named 'mitigation deterrence'. Some of us have previously argued that a cultural political economy framework is needed for analysing NETs. Such a framework explains how promises of future NETs deployment, understood as defensive spatio-temporal fixes, are depoliticised and help defend an existing neoliberal political regime, and its inadequate climate policy. Thus they risk deterring necessary emissions reductions. Here we build on that framework, arguing that to understand such risks, we need to understand them as the result of historically situated, evolving, lived practices. We identify key contributing practices, focussing in particular but not exclusively on climate modelling, and discuss how they have been reproduced and co-evolved, here likened to having dug a hole for ourselves as a society. We argue that understanding and reducing deterrence risks requires phronetic knowledge practices, involving not just disembodied, dispassionate technoeconomic knowledge-making, but also strategic attention to political and normative issues, as well as emotional labour. Reflecting on life in the hole hurts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 2000s, short sea shipping (SSS) is often associated with significant social and environmental benefits. To encourage a modal shift, several nations around the world have developed public SSS policies. However, the policies' effectiveness are increasingly being questioned in the public arena. Therefore, the current article's primary objective is to assess one of these SSS public initiatives' legitimacy. In particular, we analyzed Quebec's PREGTI initiative, which is designed to both reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and promote local SSS development. Our findings are based on a triangulated analysis of official PREGTI documents and semi-structured interviews with local marine-sector specialists (N = 36). The data analyses inspired the development of an integrative framework that includes four components that could explain the lack of SSS program credibility and interest. Our framework identified critical issues for consideration in SSS program development, including: 1) the institutional framework's relevance; 2) its implementation challenges; 3) the program's predictability; and 4) the credibility of government authorities. Ultimately, the present article provides a better understanding of the significant discrepancies between public SSS programs development and the needs of local maritime sector stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions and their concentration in the atmosphere, especially during the last forty years, appears in stark contrast to the actions taken both at the national and the international level since the adoption of the UN Convention on Climate Change in 1992. The utter insufficiency of climate action, that is driving human civilization to a tipping point, is increasingly fuelling a legal strategy to bring governments to court to force them to adopt a responsible climate policy. This is not the only kind of climate litigation, since the many actors affected by either the climate crisis or by the policies enacted to solve it have all engaged in some sort of judicial dispute against each other. The main goal of this article is to present an outlook of climate litigation since 2015, especially focusing on the more recent trends of a fast-evolving phenomenon [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigating climate change requires a diverse portfolio of technologies and approaches, including negative emissions or removal of greenhouse gases. Previous literature focuses primarily on carbon dioxide removal, but methane removal may be an important complement to future efforts. Methane removal has at least two key benefits: reducing temperature more rapidly than carbon dioxide removal and improving air quality by reducing surface ozone concentration. While some removal technologies are being developed, modelling of their impacts is limited. Here, we conduct the first simulations using a methane emissions-driven Earth System Model to quantify the climate and air quality co-benefits of methane removal, including different rates and timings of removal. We define a novel metric, the effective cumulative removal, and use it to show that each effective petagram of methane removed causes a mean global surface temperature reduction of 0.21 ± 0.04°C and a mean global surface ozone reduction of 1.0 ± 0.2 parts per billion. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of methane removal in delaying warming thresholds and reducing peak temperatures, and also allow for direct comparisons between the impacts of methane and carbon dioxide removal that could guide future research and climate policy. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Rising methane: is warming feeding warming? (part 1)'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data-products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the first time, an approach is shown to reconcile the difference in our ELUC estimate with the one from national greenhouse gases inventories, supporting the assessment of collective countries' climate progress. For the year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative to 2019, with fossil emissions at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission of 10.2 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1 (37.4 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2020, GATM was 5.0 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1 (2.4 ± 0.1 ppm yr-1), SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 2.9 ± 1 GtC yr-1, with a BIM of -0.8 GtC yr-1. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2021, suggest a rebound in EFOS relative to 2020 of +4.9 % (4.1 % to 5.7 %) globally. Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959-2020, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr-1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Friedlingstein et al., 2020; Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré et al., 2018b, 2018a, 2016, 2015b, 2015a, 2014, 2013). The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 (Friedlingstein et al., 2021). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates national 'climate change acts'. Climate change acts are a newly emerging, innovative form of legislation designed to drive down economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions. They impact the energy sector most particularly, as the most abundant source of global greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis highlights various conceptual, definitional and linguistic problems that arise where one seeks to apply the term 'climate change act' meaningfully in the context of climate and energy law and policy discourse. It is demonstrated that such difficulties exert a latent undermining influence on technical and analytical coherence in the field. Means of reducing or avoiding these sorts of problems going forward are outlined and discussed. As part of this process, a working definition of this emerging form of legislation is set out in careful exacting terms. Here, its meaning is equated with the technical descriptor 'national framework climate legislation'. Consideration is also accorded to the future of climate change acts in this analytical setting, and extant commentary engaging the notion of second-generation climate policy is drawn upon in order to construct a working definition of second-generation climate change acts that can usefully inform aspects of analysis in going forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reclamation of degraded pastures has a prominent role in the Brazilian climate policy and is one of the main strategies of Brazil's Low-Carbon Agriculture Plan (ABC Plan). Here, we aimed to evaluate the changes in soil C and N stocks in livestock areas under pasture reclamation and contribute to the empirical basis for evaluating the ABC Plan. Based on the assessment of six chronosequences across Brazilian Cerrado, we observed that the effects of management practices for pasture reclamation on soil C and N stocks in livestock areas were quite variable. Any general tendencies depend on the depth evaluated. At the 0–30 cm soil layer, pasture areas under reclamation in Brazilian Cerrado showed an average soil C change rate of 0.47 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. However, for the more in-depth assessment (0–100 cm), the adoption of management practices for pasture reclamation did not affect the average rate of soil C changes for these areas. In this sense, we suggest that an up-scaling from single case studies may lead to overestimations of soil C inventories. Thefore, ABC Plan must review some of its approaches based on general values and extrapolations regarding C sequestration in pasture areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2022, Saudi Arabia's anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 810 million tons of CO 2 e. The country has pledged to cut its emissions by 278 million tons of CO 2 e per year by 2030. This paper contributes a modeling view on the climate-related effects of various energy policies on the Saudi energy system. We use an energy system model designed to represent seven sectors in the Saudi economy. In addition to a baseline, which entails the continuation of current domestic policies, we look at a scenario that incorporates some of the plans announced by the Saudi government. We also examine the baseline scenario with a cap on total CO 2 emissions equal to those exhibited with the announced plans. The model then makes the necessary decisions to abate CO 2. We find that the energy system contributes 130 million tons of CO 2 e to the nationally determined contribution amount in 2030. Also, a non-prescriptive scenario that caps energy-system CO 2 emissions produces the same emissions reductions as the announced plans while lowering the present cost by 2030 by $70 billion. The corresponding implicit marginal abatement cost of CO 2 approaches 35 $/tonCO 2 by 2045. This cost would displace around half of crude and fuel oil use in the Saudi energy system. • Saudi Arabia plans to cut annual greenhouse gas emissions by 278 million tonsCO 2 e. • We use a multi-sector model built from the ground up for Saudi Arabia. • The energy system can contribute 130 million tons of CO 2 e in reductions in 2030. • We find a scenario that achieves GHG abatement at a lower cost than official plans. • The marginal value attributed to CO 2 approaches 35 $ per tonCO 2 by 2045. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing body of modelling evidence that demonstrates the potential for immediate and substantial benefits to adult health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions, but the effects on the health of younger age groups is largely unknown. We conducted a systematic review to identify the available published evidence of the modelled effects on child and adolescent health (≤18 years of age) of greenhouse gas mitigation. We searched six databases of peer-reviewed studies published between January 1, 1990 and July 27, 2022, screened 27,282 original papers and included 23 eligible papers. All included studies were set in high- and middle-income countries; and all studies modelled the effects of interventions that could mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality. Most of the available evidence suggests positive benefits for child and adolescent respiratory health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions that simultaneously reduce air pollution (specifically PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide). We found scant evidence on child and adolescent health from regions more vulnerable to climate change, or on mitigation interventions that could affect exposures other than air pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is an essential element of climate change policies. This paper explores Dutch dairy farmers' adoption behaviour of climate change mitigation measures using a Self-regulated Stage model of Behavioural Change. It tests the statistical relationship of stage-specific socio-psychological factors with individual farmer's intentions of planning or adopting on-farm climate mitigation measures. In addition, it tests the statistical relationship of intentions on four stages (pre-decisional, pre-actional, actional, post-actional). The empirical application focuses on data from specialised Dutch dairy farmers registered with the Farm Accountancy Data Network. Our findings suggest that negative emotion, personal norm, perceived goal feasibility, action planning, and coping planning vary significantly by stage. Furthermore, personal norm, attitude, goal intention, behavioural intention, and implementation intention are found to be statistically significant and positive influencing factors on adopting climate mitigation measures. Lastly, farmers younger than 45 years old with full agricultural education and farms with high livestock density are more likely to have taken steps in adopting mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects the world. Due to excessive GHG emissions, urban transportation contributes to this threat. Policymakers and authorities want to reduce transportation-related GHG emissions. An imaginary urban area with high transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, dense, interconnected transportation modes, and a high population density is considered. Istanbul, Turkey meets the criteria of this imaginary place, so the case analysis considers this city. Istanbul's decision-makers are looking for effective strategies to prioritize urban climate change policy alternatives for transportation activities. Four alternative strategies and 13 criteria are presented in this context. Innovative multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method with the interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy sets (IVFFSs) strategies is proposed for advantage-prioritization so decision-makers can select the most effective strategies for policies. Utilizing the IVFFSs, the proposed method effectively tackles the qualitative/quantitative data and uncertain information that occurs in realistic applications. In this study, firstly IVFF-heronian mean operators with their desirable characteristics are presented to aggregate the IVFF information. The proposed operators can overcome the drawbacks of existing IVFF information-based operators by considering the relationships between IVFF numbers. Based on IVFF heronian mean operators, a hybrid decision-making framework is proposed by integrating criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC), rank sum (RS), and the double normalization-based multi-aggregation (DNMA) methods with IVFF information. In this method, the CRITIC and RS methods are implemented to derive the objective and subjective weights of the considered evaluation criteria and DNMA is applied to prioritize urban climate change policy alternatives for transportation activities. Sensitivity and comparative analyses with existing studies confirm the proposed framework. The evaluation results show that the integration of transportation sectors, strategies, and innovations across different urban areas in all regions option has the highest overall utility degree (0.731) among a set of four urban climate change policy alternatives for transportation activities. • Innovative MCDM method with interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy sets (IVFFSs) strategies is proposed. • New interval-valued Fermatean fuzzy generalized Heronian mean aggregation operators are proposed. • Method tackles qualitative/quantitative data, uncertain information in realistic applications. • Integration of criteria weighting procedure using the IVFF-CRITIC and RS methods is proposed. • 4 strategies are used to reduce GHG emissions from transportation for urban climate change policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Simulates uptake of private light-duty automated vehicles (AVs) and GHG impacts. • Consumer uptake of AVs ranges from 15% to 36% of new market share by 2035. • Full availability of AVs leads to a small increase in GHG emissions. • GHGs increase mainly due to increased vehicle travel (VKT) and reduced zero-emission vehicle sales. • Strong climate policy (regulation or tax) can still reduce AV emissions. The future of privately owned, fully automated vehicles (AVs) is highly uncertain, especially the impacts to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We simulate the impacts of climate policy on AV uptake in Canada's light-duty vehicle sector and the corresponding GHG emissions, including changes to efficiency, vehicle kilometre travelled (VKT), and zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales. We use a technology adoption model which includes consumer preferences and endogenous learning, while also representing automaker decisions. In scenarios where AVs become fully available for sale in 2025, consumer uptake ranges from 15% to 36% new market share by 2035--some of which displace ZEV sales. With or without strong climate policy, the availability of AVs leads to a small increase in GHG emissions, largely due to increased VKT per vehicle and among new user groups. However, enactment of a strong carbon price or ZEV sales mandate can still substantially reduce emissions in the AV scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, extreme weather and climate events caused preventable injuries, illnesses and deaths. A clear imperative exists to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase the sustainability and climate resilience of health systems. Countries and communities must implement strategies to mitigate climate change and invest in health systems to protect their populations. Key advances: Climate change is already causing preventable injuries, illnesses and deaths5; the health burden is projected to increase with each additional unit of warming7. Our short-term future will be characterized by increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather and climate events, for which communities are ill-prepared5. Indicators of the impacts of and responses to climate change provide a clear imperative for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing the sustainability and climate resilience of health systems5. Current investments in research and building climate-resilient health systems are insufficient to effectively manage increasing health risks5. The economic value of the health benefits of policies to mitigate climate change exceeds the estimated costs of mitigation8. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy-economy models play an increasingly important role in informing climate policy decisions, yet their results lack consistency in terms of projected greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts. The paper employs a scoping review of the key improvements, knowledge gaps, and critiques of energy-economy models in the academic, public, private, and not-for-profit sectors in Canada over the past ten years. The three objectives are to (1) identify the key energy-economy modelling assessment criteria, (2) develop an inventory of energy-economy models assessed against the criteria in objective 1, and (3) discuss implications for modelling climate policies. Four criteria for assessing the ability of energy-economy models to evaluate climate policy impacts are identified: treatment of technology, microeconomic realism, macroeconomic realism, and policy representation. The assessment of 21 models against these criteria reveals similarities and differences across models. Models that share similarities in over-arching methodological approaches are also similar in the way they represent technologies, market heterogeneity, trade effects, different policy types, and energy equilibrium. Conversely, there are quite diverse approaches used in the representation of technological change, non-financial decision factors, financial or monetary features, and non-energy equilibrium. Model documentation does not often address how policy interaction is taken into account. Based on this assessment, implications for climate policy modelling and future research are discussed. • Climate policy projections vary across energy-economy models. • A scoping literature review compares energy-economy models in Canada's public and private sectors. • Four key criteria are identified for evaluating energy-economy models. • The review reveals similarities and differences across models. • Implications for climate policy modelling are identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate policy is changing fast in the EU, with country leaders raising the bloc's ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 2050. However, there is uncertainty about the allocation of decarbonisation effort between EU member states. This paper develops a multi-objective optimisation framework to provide insights to decision-makers in this policy context by exploring trade-offs between stronger decarbonisation goals and higher costs. Applying this approach for Cyprus, we find that the maximum achievable abatement for the EU Effort Sharing sectors corresponds to a 35% target. The current 24% ambition can be achieved with net social benefits, but the transition to higher abatement results in positive costs with a gradual rate of increase. The picture changes when decision-making explicitly accounts for external costs of emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants in the optimisation procedure. In this case, the least-cost solution delivers an abatement of about 32% and can yield social benefits of more than one billion Euros'2020. Regarding public expenditures, it requires about 3% of national GDP each year. This indicates that the socially optimal policy mix for attaining decarbonisation of the Cypriot economy is feasible but requires a consistent allocation of public funds to build infrastructure, overcome investment barriers and mobilise capital to enable the uptake of clean technologies across the economy. Although the modelling framework has been developed for a specific country and is tailored to the specific EU policy circumstances, the proposed methodology is entirely suitable for other world regions with a demanding decarbonisation roadmap. • Optimisation framework to explore climate policy options under uncertain targets. • Abatement costs increase faster when the emissions target becomes more ambitious. • Decarbonisation yields economic benefits if air pollution costs are factored in. • Path to carbon neutrality is feasible but requires targeted allocation of funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present CO 2 emission estimates for twenty power plants and related facilities in the United States, India, South Africa, Poland, Russia and South Korea, derived from space-based CO 2 observations from NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite. Improvements to OCO-2 data quality and to our methodology yield improved results relative to earlier work. These new results include emission quantification for both larger and smaller power plants, the first power plant emission estimate based on ocean glint data and emissions from a small city with multiple industrial facilities. CO 2 emission estimates are compared against reported facility emissions where available, including high temporal resolution data for the eight US sites. The difference with respect to reported values for the US sites ranges from 1.4% to 26.7%, with a mean of 15.1%, although the estimated emission sum for all US sites is within 0.8% of the reported value, suggesting the errors are largely random. This finding reinforces the importance of revisit rate for future space-based emission monitoring systems and furthermore confirms that making multiple overpasses of a power plant can reduce errors to an accuracy useful to support climate policy. • We quantify CO 2 emissions from power plants using observations from NASA's OCO-2. • Sum of estimates for 8 US power plants is within 0.8% of sum of reported values. • Results reinforce importance of revisit rate for satellite CO 2 emission monitoring. • Multiple revisits per power plant can lead to CO 2 emission accuracy useful for climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]