Wang, Chen, Zhao, Kun, Zhu, Kefeng, Huang, Hao, Lu, Yinghui, Yang, Zhengwei, Fu, Peiling, Zhang, Yu, Chen, Binghong, and Hu, Dongming
The impact of assimilating China's operational X‐band Phased‐Array radar's (X‐PAR) data on the analysis and warning forecast of the vortex structure and intensity of the June 8, 2018 Foshan, Guangdong province, tornadic storm was investigated for the first time using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation system. Both radar radial velocity (Vr) and reflectivity (Z) from two S‐band operational radars and one X‐PAR were assimilated. Deterministic forecasts were launched every 6 min from 05:42 UTC (20 min before the tornado touched down) to 06:00 UTC from the EnKF mean analysis field. Five experiments were conducted to examine the added capability of Z assimilation of the EnKF system, and to investigate the impact of assimilating X‐PAR data on the analysis and prediction of the tornadic storm. Compared to the experiment without Z assimilation, the assimilation of Z reduced the analysis error and greatly reduced the forecast error of Z. The assimilation of X‐PAR data greatly improved the vortex structure of the tornadic storm at low levels, and improved the intensity of the rear inflow of the tornadic storm, especially with a higher assimilation frequency. Compared to the experiments without X‐PAR data assimilation, assimilating X‐PAR data improved the predictability of tornadic storm. Plain Language Summary: Tornadoes are difficult to predict worldwide. However, the scan speed of current operational S‐band (10 cm wavelength) radar is too slow to capture the evolution of tornadoes. The newly built X‐band (3 cm wavelength) Phase‐Array radar (X‐PAR) network in Guangdong Province, China, are hopeful to fill in the gap with their higher scan frequency and higher spatial resolution, which can capture the fine‐scale structure and rapid evolution of small scale systems such as tornadic storms. This study focuses on a case where a tornado embedded within the typhoon Ewiniar was well captured by the X‐PAR network. It demonstrated for the first time the use of X‐PAR data on the prediction of a tornadic storm in China. We used ensemble‐based data assimilation techniques named Ensemble Kalman Filter to utilize the information provided by the X‐PAR data. With the improved information, the analyzed tornadic storm vortex structure at low levels was greatly improved, especially with a higher assimilation frequency. Compared to the experiments without X‐PAR data, the experiment using X‐PAR data successfully predicted the tornadic vortex a few minutes in advance. Key Points: The impact of assimilating China's X‐band Phased‐Array radar (X‐PAR) radar data on the analysis and forecast of a tornadic storm was first investigated using an Ensemble Kalman Filter systemThe assimilation of X‐PAR data helps to produce a more realistic‐looking tornadic storm structure, especially at low levelsIncreasing assimilation frequency of X‐PAR data reduces the analysis error and subsequently improves the 8‐min tornadic storm forecast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]