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Critical chain buffer management (CCBM) has been extensively studied in recent years. This paper investigates a new formulation of CCBM, the multimode chance-constrained CCBM problem. A flow-based mixed-integer linear programming model is described and the chance constraints are tackled using a scenario approach. A reinforcement learning (RL)-based algorithm is proposed to solve the problem. A factorial experiment is conducted and the results of this study indicate that solving the chance-constrained problem produces shorter project durations than the traditional approach that inserts time buffers into a baseline schedule generated by solving the deterministic problem. This paper also demonstrates that our RL method produces competitive schedules compared to established benchmarks. The importance of solving the chance-constrained problem and obtaining a project buffer tailored to the desired probability of completing the project on schedule directly from the solution is highlighted. Because of its potential for generating shorter schedules with the same on-time probabilities as the traditional approach, this research can be a useful aid for decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate optimal control problems perturbed by random events. We assume that the control has to be decided prior to observing the outcome of the perturbed state equations. We investigate the use of probability functions in the objective function or constraints to define optimal or feasible controls. We provide an extension of differentiability results for probability functions in infinite dimensions usable in this context. These results are subsequently combined with the optimal control setting to derive a novel Pontryagin’s optimality principle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing distribution system planning methods do not fully consider improving power supply capacity and reliability through the coordination of multiple planning factors, and they are not comprehensive enough in quantifying planning risks. Therefore, this paper proposes a collaborative planning method for sources and networks that considers risk measurement. A multi-layer planning model is first constructed that includes a grid planning layer, a power planning layer, a switch planning layer, and an operation optimization layer. In the model, a risk measurement method combining opportunity constraints and conditional value-at-risk objectives is used to comprehensively assess the risk of the node voltage and branch current exceeding the limit caused by load uncertainty. Then, a solution strategy based on a genetic algorithm and a sparrow search algorithm is proposed to coordinate the contradiction between the solution time and the accuracy of the multi-layer model. Finally, taking a planned area to be expanded as an example, the results show that compared to the existing collaborative planning methods for sources and networks, the proposed method in this paper reduces the planning risks caused by load uncertainty by more than 50% and increases the annual net income of the power distribution company and the DG operators by RMB 1.5 million and RMB 1.1 million, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we tackle the resolution of chance-constrained problems reformulated via sample average approximation. The resulting data-driven deterministic reformulation takes the form of a large-scale mixed-integer program (MIP) cursed with Big-Ms. We introduce an exact resolution method for the MIP that combines the addition of a set of valid inequalities to tighten the linear relaxation bound with coefficient strengthening and constraint screening algorithms to improve its Big-Ms and considerably reduce its size. The proposed valid inequalities are based on the notion of k-envelopes and can be computed off-line using polynomial-time algorithms and added to the MIP program all at once. Furthermore, they are equally useful to boost the strengthening of the Big-Ms and the screening rate of superfluous constraints. We apply our procedures to a probabilistically constrained version of the DC optimal power flow problem with uncertain demand. The chance constraint requires that the probability of violating any of the power system's constraints be lower than some positive threshold. In a series of numerical experiments that involve five power systems of different size, we show the efficiency of the proposed methodology and compare it with some of the best performing convex inner approximations currently available in the literature. History: Accepted by Andrea Lodi, Area Editor for Design & Analysis of Algorithms – Discrete. Funding: This work was supported in part by the European Research Council under the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation program [Grant 755705], in part by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation [Grant AEI/10.13039/501100011033] through project PID2020-115460GB-I00, and in part by the Junta de Andalucía and the European Regional Development Fund through the research project P20_00153. Á. Porras is also financially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through the University Teacher Training Program with fellowship number FPU19/03053. Supplemental Material: The online supplement is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/ijoc.2022.0302. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently there has been a considerable increase in the penetration level of distributed energy resources (DERs) due to various factors, such as the increasing affordability of these resources, the global movement towards sustainable energy, and the energy democracy movement. However, the uncertainty and variability of DERs introduce new challenges for power system operations. Advanced techniques that account for the characteristics of DERs, i.e., their intermittency and human-in-the-loop factors, are essential to improving distribution system operations. This paper proposes a behavior-aware approach to analyze and aggregate prosumers' participation in demand response (DR) programs. A convexified AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) via a second-order cone programming (SOCP) technique is used for system scheduling with DERs. A chance-constrained framework for the system operation is constructed as an iterative two-stage algorithm that can integrate loads, DERs' uncertainty, and SOCP-based ACOPF into one framework to manage the violation probability of the distribution system's security limits. The benefits of the analyzed prosumers' behaviors are shown in this paper by comparing the optimal system scheduling with socially aware and non-socially aware approaches. The case study illustrates that the socially aware approach within the chance-constrained framework can utilize up to 43% more PV generation and improve the reliability and operation of distribution systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider the maximizing of the probability P ζ ∣ ζ ∈ K (x) over a closed and convex set X , a special case of the chance-constrained optimization problem. Suppose K (x) ≜ ζ ∈ K ∣ c (x , ζ) ≥ 0 , and ζ is uniformly distributed on a convex and compact set K and c (x , ζ) is defined as either c (x , ζ) ≜ 1 - ζ T x m where m ≥ 0 (Setting A) or c (x , ζ) ≜ T x - ζ (Setting B). We show that in either setting, by leveraging recent findings in the context of non-Gaussian integrals of positively homogenous functions, P ζ ∣ ζ ∈ K (x) can be expressed as the expectation of a suitably defined continuous function F (∙ , ξ) with respect to an appropriately defined Gaussian density (or its variant), i.e. E p ~ F (x , ξ) . Aided by a recent observation in convex analysis, we then develop a convex representation of the original problem requiring the minimization of g E F (∙ , ξ) over X , where g is an appropriately defined smooth convex function. Traditional stochastic approximation schemes cannot contend with the minimization of g E F (∙ , ξ) over X , since conditionally unbiased sampled gradients are unavailable. We then develop a regularized variance-reduced stochastic approximation (r-VRSA) scheme that obviates the need for such unbiasedness by combining iterative regularization with variance-reduction. Notably, (r-VRSA) is characterized by almost-sure convergence guarantees, a convergence rate of O (1 / k 1 / 2 - a) in expected sub-optimality where a > 0 , and a sample complexity of O (1 / ϵ 6 + δ) where δ > 0 . To the best of our knowledge, this may be the first such scheme for probability maximization problems with convergence and rate guarantees. Preliminary numerics on a portfolio selection problem (Setting A) and a set-covering problem (Setting B) suggest that the scheme competes well with naive mini-batch SA schemes as well as integer programming approximation methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates analytical properties of dynamic probabilistic constraints (chance constraints). The underlying random distribution is supposed to be continuous. In the first part, a general multistage model with decision rules depending on past observations of the random process is analyzed. Basic properties like (weak sequential) (semi-) continuity of the probability function or existence of solutions are studied. It turns out that the results differ significantly according to whether decision rules are embedded into Lebesgue or Sobolev spaces. In the second part, the simplest meaningful two-stage model with decision rules from L 2 is investigated. More specific properties like Lipschitz continuity and differentiability of the probability function are considered. Explicitly verifiable conditions for these properties are provided along with explicit gradient formulae in the Gaussian case. The application of such formulae in the context of necessary optimality conditions is discussed and a concrete identification of solutions presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The flight environment of aerodynamically controlled missiles is full of complexity and uncertainty. To cope with the uncertainty more effectively and enhance the convergence performance in trajectory optimization problems for aerodynamically controlled missiles simultaneously, the chance-constrained sequential convex programming (CC-SCP) algorithm is proposed in this paper. The uncertainty is regarded as the chance constraint, and a smooth and differential approximation function is designed to transform this chance constraint into the constraint that the convex optimization method can handle. Subsequently, the originally non-convex trajectory optimization problem is reformulated into a series of convex optimization subproblems, in which an initial reference trajectory guess generation strategy is proposed, and a theoretical proof of the exact convex relaxation is given to enhance the algorithm's convergence performance and theoretical value, respectively. Numerical simulations are provided to verify the convergence and effectiveness of the CC-SCP algorithm, and the advantages of using the CC-SCP algorithm to cope with the uncertainty are illustrated. Furthermore, comparative simulation examples show that the proposed algorithm possesses a low conservatism, which means the proposed algorithm can obtain a bigger convergence region and a better solution than other current methods when handling the same chance constraints. Finally, the robustness of the algorithm is discussed. • The algorithm can handle the trajectory optimization problem with uncertainties. • The algorithm outperforms other current methods when handling the chance constraints. • A theoretical proof is given for the exact convex relaxation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecast uncertainties pose a considerable challenge to the success of model predictive control (MPC) in buildings. Numerous possibilities for considering forecast uncertainties in MPCs are available, but an in-depth comparison is lacking. This paper compares two main approaches to consider uncertainties: robust and stochastic MPC. They are benchmarked against a deterministic MPC and an MPC with perfect forecast. The MPCs utilize a holistic building model to reflect modern smart homes that include photovoltaic power generation and storage, thermally controlled loads, and smart appliances. Real-world data are used to identify the thermal building model. The performance of the various controllers is investigated under three levels of uncertainty for two building models with different envelope performance. For the highly insulated building, the deterministic MPC achieves satisfactory thermal comfort when the forecast error is medium or low, but the thermal comfort is compromised for high forecast errors. In the poorly insulated building, thermal comfort is compromised at medium and high forecast errors. Compared to the deterministic MPC, the robust MPC increases the electricity cost by up to 4.5% and provides complete temperature constraint satisfaction while the stochastic MPC increases the electricity cost by less than 1% and fulfills the thermal comfort requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid development of microgrids (MGs) with various prosumers promotes the accommodation of renewable distributed generation (RDG) and provides platforms for local energy sharing among prosumers. However, the operational uncertainties pose enormous challenges to the day-ahead bidding of MGs in the wholesale electricity market and there is an urgent need for a local market to facilitate the local energy sharing. Thus, this paper proposes a risk-averse day-ahead bidding strategy for MGs with full consideration of the multiple uncertainties originating from the wholesale electricity market, RDG and loads. Based on the transactive energy (TE) sharing concept, the local market is formulated as a Stackelberg game (SG) to effectively capture the strategic interaction among the MG and prosumers, where a distributed iterative algorithm with a bisection approach that only requires exchanging TE-related information is adopted to achieve the SG equilibrium without compromising privacy concerns. To handle the uncertainties of RDG and loads, the power balances are formulated as chance constraints and a data-driven quantile forecasting method is developed for achieving the computational tractability of chance constraints without any prior knowledge or probability distribution assumptions. Furthermore, a risk criterion of the conditional value-at-risk is incorporated in the day-ahead bidding model of MGs for risk aversion towards uncertainties of the wholesale electricity market. The effectiveness of the proposed solution is extensively demonstrated through numerical simulation. • A risk-averse day-ahead bidding strategy of TE sharing MGs is presented. • A SG-based local TE market with privacy protection is developed. • The wholesale market uncertainties are addressed in a risk-averse manner via CVaR. • The power balance chance constraints are built to handle RDG and load uncertainties. • A data-driven quantile forecasting method is proposed to solve chance constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, electricity generation is responsible for more than a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions in the US. Integrating significant amounts of renewable energy sources into a power grid is probably the most accessible way to reduce carbon emissions from power grids and slow down climate change. Unfortunately, the most accessible renewable power sources, such as wind and solar, are highly intermittent and thus bring a lot of uncertainty to power grid operation and challenge existing optimization and control policies. The chance-constrained (CC) alternating current optimal power flow (AC-OPF) framework finds the minimum cost of generation dispatch, maintaining the power grid operation within security limits with a prescribed probability. Unfortunately, the AC-OPF problem's chance-constrained extension is non-convex, computationally challenging, and requires knowledge of system parameters and also needs additional assumptions to be made about the behavior of renewable generation probability distribution. Known linear and convex approximations to the above problems, though tractable, are too conservative for operational practice and do not consider uncertainty in system parameters. This paper presents an alternative data-driven approach for solving the stochastic AC-OPF problem, based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to close this gap. The Gaussian process (GP) approach learns a simple yet non-convex data-driven approximation to the AC power flow equations that can incorporate uncertain inputs. The latter is then used to determine the solution of CC-OPF efficiently, by accounting for both input and parameter uncertainty. The practical efficiency of the proposed approach using different approximations for GP-uncertainty propagation is validated and illustrated using a number of standard IEEE test cases. • Chance constrained optimal power flow based on data-driven approach. • Gaussian process regression for solving stochastic optimal power flow. • Gaussian processes for handling uncertainties in power systems. • Machine learning for power system optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the problem of active fault diagnosis (AFD) is investigated for a class of linear stochastic systems subject to chance constraints, where the input signals are specifically designed to enhance diagnosis performance by discriminating between multi-fault modes. As the misdiagnosis probability cannot be expressed in the closed form, a reachable upper bound on it is derived to construct a novel input design criterion for AFD based on the Cauchy–Schwarz divergence. A sufficient condition is provided to decompose the multivariate chance constraints into a set of univariate ones. A three-stage optimization approach is proposed to solve the input design problem incorporating chance constraints for AFD. In the upper stage, the best iteration parameter is determined for subsequent iterative optimization to obtain the least conservative risk allocation scheme. In the middle stage, the total risk of violating the multivariate constraints is optimally allocated to a set of univariate ones through iterative optimization, which can improve diagnosis performance. In the lower stage, a set of univariate chance constraints is equivalently converted into expectation constraints under the allocated risk, and then the input design problem under the constructed design criterion is solved to global optimality. The optimal input signals are injected, and the AFD decision is made based on real-time measurement information according to the minimum probability of misdiagnosis decision principle. Finally, simulation results on a four-tank system demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed AFD method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainties originating from electricity markets, renewable distributed generations (RDG) and multi-energy loads pose huge challenges to the optimal energy management of the integrated energy system (IES) in competitive electricity markets. This paper develops an energy management framework (EMF) with a two-stage process for IES strategic participation in electricity markets, which can coordinate the operation of IES to comply with the two-settlement mechanism of the day-ahead and real-time markets. The former stage incorporates the conditional value-at-risk to make day-ahead bidding decisions for risk aversion towards uncertainties introduced by the electricity market. The latter coordinates the day-ahead bidding electricity to implement energy dispatch of IES for real-time market participation. Furthermore, supply-demand balances are formulated into chance constraints in the day-ahead bidding while real-time energy dispatch is implemented based on rolling model predictive control in response to uncertainties due to RDG and multi-energy loads. The proposed EMF is extensively assessed through two case studies in the PJM and Guangdong electricity markets. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed EMF can effectively achieve day-ahead bidding of IES with risk aversion towards unexpected increases in operating costs caused by market uncertainties and determine the optimal operation scheme for its participation in the real-time market. • The energy management of IES for participating in electricity markets is explored. • A risk-averse day-ahead bidding strategy based on CVaR is developed for IES. • The rolling MPC is adopted for energy dispatch to participate in real-time market. • The uncertainties due to market, RDG and multi-energy loads are fully considered. • The proposed solution is assessed in the PJM and Guangdong electricity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under-Frequency Load Shedding (UFLS) schemes are the last resort to contain a frequency drop in the grid by disconnecting part of the demand. The allocation methods for selecting feeders that would contribute to the UFLS scheme have traditionally relied on the fact that electric demand followed fairly regular patterns, and could be forecast with high accuracy. However, recent integration of Distributed Generation (DG) increases the uncertainty in net consumption of feeders which, in turn, requires a reformulation of UFLS-allocation methods to account for this uncertainty. In this paper, a chance-constrained methodology for selecting feeders is proposed, with mathematical guarantees for the disconnection of the required amount of load with a certain pre-defined probability. The correlation in net-load forecasts among feeders is explicitly considered, given that uncertainty in DG power output is driven by meteorological conditions with high correlation across the network. Furthermore, this method is applicable either to systems with conventional UFLS schemes (where relays measure local frequency and trip if this magnitude falls below a certain threshold), or adaptive UFLS schemes (where relays are triggered by control signals sent in the few instants following a contingency). Relevant case studies demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, and the need for explicit consideration of uncertainty in the UFLS-allocation process. • A chance-constrained methodology for selecting feeders contributing towards UFLS is proposed. • Uncertainty and correlation driven by Distributed Generation are explicitly considered. • A distributionally-robust option is given, requiring minimal information on uncertainty. • The method applies to several communication requirements for the operation of the power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A distributed optimization model is proposed for the integrated electricity-natural gas networks. • The proposed model uses boundary consistency constraints to decouple the integrated networks. • P2G and gas turbines are used to deal with uncertainty risks. • P2G and gas storage tanks serve as distributed gas sources for the natural gas network. • The proposed model uses ATC to obtain a rapidly distributed solution. In recent years, the penetration of decentralized wind power generation in distribution networks has increased rapidly, and the uncertainties in wind power generation has posed great challenges on the operation of distribution networks. To this end, this paper establishes a distributed coordinated optimization model of integrated electricity-gas distribution networks considering power-to-gas (P2G) units and gas turbines to deal with the uncertainties of wind power output. First, this paper uses chance constraints to deal with the uncertainties of wind power output and converts it into a linear model that is easy to be solved. Secondly, considering the electricity distribution network and gas distribution network as different stakeholders, optimization models are established with the objectives of minimizing their respective operating costs, and the established models are solved in a distributed manner through the analytical target cascading (ATC). Finally, an integrated electricity-gas distribution system composed of the IEEE 33-node distribution network and 24-node natural gas network is used for simulation, which validate the proposed model and method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A novel data-driven surrogate is developed for chance constraint reformulation. • Wind curtailment dispatch is explicitly modeled in chance constraints. • A correction strategy is proposed to ensure modeling accuracy. • The proposed approach is effective under arbitrary distribution assumptions. Chance-constrained optimization (CCO) has been widely used for uncertainty management in power system operation. With the prevalence of wind energy, it becomes necessary to consider wind curtailment as a dispatch variable in CCO. However, the wind curtailment will cause an impulse for the uncertainty distribution, yielding challenges for explicit modeling of chance constraint. In this paper, a novel data-driven framework is developed to handle this issue. By modeling the wind curtailment as a cap enforced on the wind power output, the proposed framework constructs a data-driven surrogate to describe the relationship between wind curtailment and the tightening boundary of chance constraints. This allows us to reformulate the CCO with wind curtailment as a mixed-integer second-order cone programming (MI-SOCP) problem. An error correction strategy is developed by solving a convex linear programming (LP) to improve the modeling accuracy. The notable characteristic of the proposed method is that the chance constraints with wind curtailment can be explicitly and accurately handled without any distribution assumptions, which provides great convenience for the power dispatch under a high percentage of renewables. Case studies performed on the PJM 5-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method is capable of accurately accounting the influence of wind curtailment dispatch in CCO. It shows that the proposed method outperforms existing methods by producing more economic and secure solutions for the chance-constrained energy and reserve scheduling problem under uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chance constraints are suitable for industrial process modeling under uncertain conditions, where constraints cannot be strictly satisfied or do not need to be fully satisfied. In this paper, a single machine scheduling problem involving flexible maintenance, production, and uncertainty is modeled as a chance constrained dynamic optimization problem (CCDOP). A novel method is proposed for transforming the CCDOP into an equivalent deterministic dynamic optimization problem (DOP) with fixed state jump times. Furthermore, by using the idea of l 1 penalty function and a smooth approximation technique, the resulting deterministic DOP becomes a smoothing penalty problem, which is a non-convex nonlinear parameter optimization problem (NNPOP) with simple bounds on the variables. To solve the NNPOP, a gradient-based stochastic search algorithm (GSSA) is developed based on a gradient-based adaptive search algorithm (GASA) and a novel stochastic search algorithm (NSSA). The convergence analysis result shows that the GSSA is a globally convergent algorithm. Finally, two numerical examples are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Numerical results show that the GSSA has excellent convergence behavior with robust computation feature, providing better results compared with the other typical methods. • A CCDOA is developed for the single machine scheduling problem. • Propose a novel technique to transform the CCDOP into an equivalent CDPOP. • Design a GASA, which is effective for ill-conditioned problems. • Design a NSSA, in which no parameters tuning is required. • Propose a GSSA for the NNPOP and comparison results imply its superiority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper designs a model predictive control (MPC) law for constrained linear systems with stochastic additive disturbances and noisy measurements, minimising a discounted cost subject to a discounted expectation constraint. It is assumed that sensor data is lost with a known probability. Taking into account the data losses modelled by a Bernoulli process, we parameterise the predicted control policy as an affine function of future observations and obtain a convex linear-quadratic optimal control problem. Constraint satisfaction and a discounted cost bound are ensured without imposing bounds on the distributions of the disturbance and noise inputs. In addition, the average long-run undiscounted closed loop cost is shown to be finite if the discount factor takes appropriate values. We analyse robustness of the proposed control law with respect to possible uncertainties in the arrival probability of sensor data and we bound the impact of these uncertainties on constraint satisfaction and the discounted cost. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Novel constrained grey-box optimization framework using Gaussian process models. • New almost everywhere differentiable acquisition function for composite functions. • Efficient moment-based approximation of chance constraints. • Tailored algorithm for enrichment sub-problem that exploits model structure. • Performance comparison with Bayesian optimization on diverse set of test problems. [Display omitted] Many engineering problems involve the optimization of computationally expensive models for which derivative information is not readily available. The Bayesian optimization (BO) framework is a particularly promising approach for solving these problems, which uses Gaussian process (GP) models and an expected utility function to systematically tradeoff between exploitation and exploration of the design space. BO, however, is fundamentally limited by the black-box model assumption that does not take into account any underlying problem structure. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, COBALT, for constrained grey-box optimization problems that combines multivariate GP models with a novel constrained expected utility function whose structure can be exploited by state-of-the-art nonlinear programming solvers. COBALT is compared to traditional BO on seven test problems including the calibration of a genome-scale bioreactor model to experimental data. Overall, COBALT shows very promising performance on both unconstrained and constrained test problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motion primitive planning under parametric uncertainty may be modeled as a chance-constrained Markov Decision Process (CCMDP). Single-query solutions to CCMDPs can be obtained by searching the And/Or graph representing the state–action space of the system. The Risk-bounded AO* (RAO*) algorithm has been proposed as a solution method for this problem, but it scales poorly to MDPs resulting from a motion primitive discretization because it has no mechanism to prioritize expansion of AND nodes. This paper describes an induced heuristic for state–action pairs that can be rapidly computed by leveraging the properties of motion primitives; its value can be used to prioritize AND nodes for more efficient search. Search is further accelerated by leveraging shared symmetry in constraints and dynamics to move almost all computation necessary to enforce convex polytope constraints offline. The performance improvements are demonstrated with path planning problems involving a Dubins Car and a nonlinear aircraft model. • Motion primitives discretize vehicle action set while retaining high performance. • Koopman operator based expected value calculations combine with primitives. • And/Or graph search techniques produce optimal chance constrained primitive plans. • A novel admissible heuristic accelerates the presented algorithm by a factor of 15. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]