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The main aim of the paper is to analyze data regarding informality in Brazil from the 2016 coup to the present, considering its connection to the economic cycle and the policies implemented by the different governments in power over those years. Altogether, informality is directly associated with economic dynamics, which increase during a crisis and decrease during economic growth periods. However, over the last years, informality has expanded even in situations where unemployment rates are decreasing. Therefore, the analysis will consider two elements to be investigated: informality as a structural aspect in the Brazilian labor market, and new trends that may explain its increase in conditions of economic recovery or growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and real GDP growth in Brazil, using both aggregate and state-level data. The focus is on distinguishing longer-run trends in this relationship from short-run cyclical fluctuations, and on documenting changes in these relationships over time. We use two different filtering techniques for separating trend and cycle, namely the commonly-used Hodrick-Prescott filter and the newer filter proposed by Hamilton (2018). We find that the long-run or trend elasticity for Brazil is about 0.8, higher than than in the average for advanced countries but below that of other major emerging markets. This elasticity is somewhat higher for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions. The direction of these results is not entirely consistent with the pollution haven hypothesis but the quantitative difference between the two elasticities is not large (or statistically different from one another). Consequently, our findings suggest that shifts in the allocation of global production across countries are not a major driver of shifts in the pattern of emissions growth in Brazil. Additional evidence comes from state-level data analysis where one can observe a great deal of heterogeneity, but also some hope as far as decoupling is concerned. Our analysis for 27 states does not reveal any underlying inverted U-shape relationship between the intensity of emissions-GDP relationship and the level of per capita GDP. That is, at the state level, we do not observe that Kuznets elasticity initially increases with provincial per capita real GDP but then declines. In addition to the trend relationship between emissions and output, we find that there does not seem to exist a short-run or cyclical relationship holding in Brazil at the aggregate level (despite having become more procyclical over time), but it does exist in a few individual states. Finally, we further find evidence of asymmetry in the cyclical relationship: the elasticity is higher in booms than during busts, and thus Brazil's emissions go up more when GDP is above trend than they decrease when GDP is below trend. However, this result seems to be mainly driven by a few states. The transition to a low-carbon economy will thus require continued progress not only in bringing down trend emissions, but also in taming the increase in emissions that occurs during the boom phase of the business cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Committed to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century, South America faces unique challenges in carbon mitigation due to its distinct socio-economic, technological, and institutional backgrounds compared to developed and other developing economies. Previous research on South America's carbon emissions has limited country and sector coverage and typically adopts a top-down approach that focuses on the overall emissions of an economy, neglecting individual energy sources and emission sectors. Therefore, this paper compiles a comprehensive inventory of CO 2 emissions for South American countries based on a meticulous bottom-up approach and multi-source data integration, followed by a thorough analysis of their temporal evolution patterns and the driving forces behind them. Between 2010 and 2020, South America's overall emissions peaked in 2014 at 1092.3 Mt., led by emissions from oil consumption and from the transport and electricity sectors, and dropped to 865.6 Mt. in 2020, due to the economic fluctuations and COVID-19. Specifically, Brazil was the largest emitter, Chile experienced the most significant increase in emissions, and Paraguay recorded the highest emission growth rate. Generally, expanding population was constant driver of emission growth. High energy intensity led to significant emission increases in Brazil and Ecuador, while elevated carbon intensity was the main driver in Argentina. Energy structure changes played a positive role in most countries to different extents (e.g., much more significant in Brazil than in Chile) but aggrevated emissions in Paraguay and Guyana. Therefore, carbon mitigation strategies should be tailored to each country's unique national circumstances. • During 2010–2020, South America's CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels peaked in 2014. • Transport and electricity sectors comprised over 60% of total emissions. • Brazil was the top emitter, while Chile saw the largest increase in emissions. • Emission patterns and driving factors varied significantly across countries. • Carbon reduction strategies should be tailored to local circumstances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]