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The goal of reaching the peak of carbon in the construction industry is urgent. However, the research on the feasibility of realizing this goal and the implementation of relevant policies in China is relatively superficial. In view of the historical data of energy consumption and building CO2 emission from 1995 to 2019, this paper establishes a BP neural network model for predicting building CO2 emissions. Moreover, the influencing factors, such as population, GDP, and total construction output, are introduced as the parameters in the model. Through the scenario analysis method explores the practical path to accomplish the peak of building CO2 emissions. When using traditional prediction methods to predict building carbon emissions, the long prediction cycle will increase the possibility of significant errors. Therefore, this paper constructs the calculation model of building carbon emission and forecasts the future carbon emission value through the BP neural network to avoid the error caused by the nonlinear relationship between influencing factors and predicted value. It will effectively predict the feasibility of the carbon peak and the carbon-neutral target set by government, and provide a useful predictive tool for adjusting the new energy structure and formulating related emission reduction policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northern China is vigorously promoting cogeneration and clean heating technologies. The accurate prediction of building energy consumption is the basis for heating regulation. In this paper, the daily, weekly, and annual periods of building energy consumption are determined by Fourier transformation. Accordingly, a period-based neural network (PBNN) is proposed to predict building energy consumption. The main innovation of PBNN is the introduction of a new data structure, which is a time-discontinuous sliding window. The sliding window consists of the past 24 h, 24 h for the same period last week, and 24 h for the same period the previous year. When predicting the building energy consumption for the next 1 h, 12 h, and 24 h, the prediction errors of the PBNN are 2.30%, 3.47%, and 3.66% lower than those of the traditional sliding window PBNN (TSW-PBNN), respectively. The training time of PBNN is approximately half that of TSW-PBNN. The time-discontinuous sliding window reduces the energy consumption prediction error and neural network model training time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]