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In this paper, using Lebanon's capital, Beirut, as a case study, a methodology is proposed to assess the potential for solar photovoltaics (PV) in urban areas incorporating both economic and non-economic factors. Utilizing a rich spatial dataset of solar irradiation augmented with electricity bills at the building level, the cost and benefit of installing rooftop PV systems for each building is estimated. Additionally, incentives and barriers for adopting those systems are investigated using a probabilistic choice model. The results show that Beirut city has a potential for distributed rooftop solar PV to be between 195 and 295 MWp. However, adoption rates are low at 0.49% and 1.23% for residential and commercial buildings, respectively, reflecting the limitation of financial incentives alone to promote the deployment of distributed renewable energy systems in transition economies. The impact of different incentive policy instruments and the role of solar PV in today's economic crisis in Lebanon is analyzed. The biggest impact was achieved through removing (or lowering) electricity tariff subsidy, although this option remains highly constrained by political calculus. We argue that the Lebanese government should fast-track and implement the required legal framework to facilitate and incentivize distributed power generation from renewable sources to promote both green energy and its financial resilience. The proposed modeling framework together with the results obtained in this study will have important implications for energy policy makers in Lebanon and other transition economies. • The potential for distributed rooftop solar energy in Beirut is estimated at the building level. • The effects of economic and non-economic factors on solar PV adoption are analyzed using a probabilistic choice model. • The impacts of various incentive policies and societal factors on promoting PV are investigated with policy implications. • Electricity subsidy removal increases solar PV adoption rates, partly compensating for weak non-financial incentives. • The government should fast-track implementing the legal framework for distributed power generation including PV systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban expansion, driven by population and economic growth, has been a major contributor to increased levels of energy consumption across the globe. Beirut, Lebanon's capital, is no exception in facing a surge in its demand for electricity as it expands. However, with frequent power outages, underpinning a largely problematic power sector, Beirut's demand for electricity is becoming a real hurdle that impedes the city's economic growth and development. This paper introduces a near-city-scale building energy model, BEirut Energy Model BEEM, which estimates the building stock's electricity consumption in two different districts in Beirut. The methodology uses rule-based expert data for an archetypal classification of the buildings based on their functions and periods of construction with their corresponding attributes including the number of floors, number of apartments, and bimonthly electricity consumption to generate a 3D model for 3630 buildings coupled to the hourly weather conditions and topographic map, which is then simulated in EnergyPlus. The predicted consumption of 2311 buildings is then calibrated with actual available metered data, to adapt the model to Beirut's occupancy and users' behaviors. Calibrated results are mapped to reveal the spatiotemporal distribution of energy peak demands which provide insights for future interventions. An analysis of the spatial distribution of electricity use demonstrates a spatial clustering that underlies urban energy demand which can be used for smart grid zoning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]