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In this study, hourly data assimilation (DA) cycling is performed during a 24-h time period for Hurricane Matthew (2016), assimilating ground-based (GBR) and tail-Doppler radar (TDR) observations together, as well as separately using HWRF and its Hybrid 3DEnVar DA system. The objective is to examine the impacts of assimilating such data on the analysis and prediction of the weakening and re-intensification stages of the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) of Matthew. Experiments assimilating GBR observations make quicker corrections to the initially inconsistent storm structure than does the TDR experiment, resulting in the primary and secondary eyewalls being realistically represented during the DA cycling period. The TDR experiment analyses show less-realistic concentric eyewall structure before, during, and after TDR observations become available. The forecasts from experiments assimilating GBR observations show more-realistic structural and point intensity changes for the ERC consistently throughout the cycling period when compared with the experiments assimilating TDR observations. Combined assimilation of GBR and TDR observations show similar ERC forecasts, on average, to the GBR experiment. The superior performance of the GBR experiments is shown to be tied to its earlier and longer availability despite its limited low-level coverage especially at the early stage of the cycling. The inferior performance of the TDR experiments even during the availability of TDR is hypothesized to be a result of rapidly changing 3D observational coverage during the high-frequency cycling. Brief mechanism diagnostics additionally suggest the need of properly initializing the TC concentric eyewalls to capture the ERC during the forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of assimilating China's operational X‐band Phased‐Array radar's (X‐PAR) data on the analysis and warning forecast of the vortex structure and intensity of the June 8, 2018 Foshan, Guangdong province, tornadic storm was investigated for the first time using an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation system. Both radar radial velocity (Vr) and reflectivity (Z) from two S‐band operational radars and one X‐PAR were assimilated. Deterministic forecasts were launched every 6 min from 05:42 UTC (20 min before the tornado touched down) to 06:00 UTC from the EnKF mean analysis field. Five experiments were conducted to examine the added capability of Z assimilation of the EnKF system, and to investigate the impact of assimilating X‐PAR data on the analysis and prediction of the tornadic storm. Compared to the experiment without Z assimilation, the assimilation of Z reduced the analysis error and greatly reduced the forecast error of Z. The assimilation of X‐PAR data greatly improved the vortex structure of the tornadic storm at low levels, and improved the intensity of the rear inflow of the tornadic storm, especially with a higher assimilation frequency. Compared to the experiments without X‐PAR data assimilation, assimilating X‐PAR data improved the predictability of tornadic storm. Plain Language Summary: Tornadoes are difficult to predict worldwide. However, the scan speed of current operational S‐band (10 cm wavelength) radar is too slow to capture the evolution of tornadoes. The newly built X‐band (3 cm wavelength) Phase‐Array radar (X‐PAR) network in Guangdong Province, China, are hopeful to fill in the gap with their higher scan frequency and higher spatial resolution, which can capture the fine‐scale structure and rapid evolution of small scale systems such as tornadic storms. This study focuses on a case where a tornado embedded within the typhoon Ewiniar was well captured by the X‐PAR network. It demonstrated for the first time the use of X‐PAR data on the prediction of a tornadic storm in China. We used ensemble‐based data assimilation techniques named Ensemble Kalman Filter to utilize the information provided by the X‐PAR data. With the improved information, the analyzed tornadic storm vortex structure at low levels was greatly improved, especially with a higher assimilation frequency. Compared to the experiments without X‐PAR data, the experiment using X‐PAR data successfully predicted the tornadic vortex a few minutes in advance. Key Points: The impact of assimilating China's X‐band Phased‐Array radar (X‐PAR) radar data on the analysis and forecast of a tornadic storm was first investigated using an Ensemble Kalman Filter systemThe assimilation of X‐PAR data helps to produce a more realistic‐looking tornadic storm structure, especially at low levelsIncreasing assimilation frequency of X‐PAR data reduces the analysis error and subsequently improves the 8‐min tornadic storm forecast [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the assimilation of satellite sea surface height, sea surface temperature and surface velocity fields observed by a set of high-frequency (HF) radars is studied using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model configured for the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. The study period is October–December 2010 covered by a large number of data. The nonlinear model is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and the data assimilation component on the four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) algorithm. Assimilation proceeds in a series of 7-day windows, providing an analysis solution in each window. The assimilation of surface velocity combined with other observations has more utility in recovering the density fields based on the theory of geostrophic adjustment and a strong impact both on near-surface horizontal volume fluxes and subsurface flows, constraining surface geostrophic currents in the area not covered by the HF radar data. The adjoint of the 4D-Var gain matrix was used to quantify the impact of individual observations and observation platforms on different aspects of the 4D-Var circulation estimates during both the analysis and subsequent forecast cycles. In this study, we focus on the alongshore transport of the surface and intermediate waters in the eastern zone of southern Tyrrhenian Sea. The majority of the observations available during any given analysis cycle are from HF radar, and on average these data, together with SSH data, exert the largest controlling influence on the analysis increments of coastal transport. Also, observations from satellite platforms in the form of SST have a considerable impact on analyses and forecasts of coastal transport, even though these observations represent a relatively small fraction of the available data at any particular time. During 4D-Var, the observations are used to correct for uncertainties in the model control variables, namely, the initial conditions, surface forcing, and open boundary conditions. It is found that correcting for uncertainties in the initial conditions and only secondarily in the boundary conditions has the largest impact on the analysis increments in alongshore transport. Finally, we note that both the control vector and the observation impact calculations are a useful way for monitoring the performance of the data assimilation system, as well as quantifying the impact of the observations on the circulation estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effect of adjusting the mean field bias (MFB) in radar-based precipitation data on analysis and prediction of streamflow and soil moisture in assimilating streamflow or streamflow and in situ soil moisture data into distributed hydrologic models. To evaluate the effect of adjusting the MFB under realistic as well as idealized conditions, both real-world and synthetic experiments are carried out for the Eldon Catchment on the border of Oklahoma and Arkansas in the US. In the synthetic experiment, the MFB is modeled as a stationary Markov chain process. The synthetic experiment showed that adjusting the MFB in the assimilation process significantly improves streamflow analysis when the initial conditions are known with reasonable certainty, and that assimilating soil moisture in addition to streamflow improves analysis of streamflow as well as soil moisture if the initial conditions are largely uncertain. Adjusting the MFB during the assimilation process noticeably improved streamflow analysis over ranges of the MFB and random noise in the precipitation data. On the other hand, increasing the MFB and random noise in the precipitation data tended to degrade soil moisture analysis due possibly to over-adjusting soil moisture to mitigate the precipitation error. The real-world experiment with one-year dataset showed that adjusting the MFB during the assimilation process helped capture the peak as well as volume of outlet flow analysis as well as prediction, and that additionally assimilating interior flow observations was necessary to improve analysis and prediction of peak flows at interior locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]