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If the modern climate trend continues for an additional 20–40 years, forests along the southern border of Canadian taiga may shift into new ranges of annual temperature and precipitation that are similar to the modern climate of central New York State, United States. Here we investigate the possible future response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) to a warmer climate by studying trees planted 90 years ago near the southern limit of their climate tolerance in central New York, 300 km south of the boreal forest where this species is prevalent. We employed high-frequency recording dendrometers to determine radial growth phenology of six mature white spruce trees during 2013–2017. The results demonstrate significant reductions in the length of radial growth periods inversely proportional to the number of hot days with air temperature exceeding 30 °C. During years with very hot summers, the start of radial growth began about 3 days earlier than the 2013–2017 average. However, in those same years, the end of radial growth was also about 17 days earlier resulting in a shorter (70 days versus 100 days) radial growth season. Abundant (350–500 mm) summer precipitation, which resulted in soil moisture values of 20%–30%, allowed us to dismiss drought as a factor. Instead, a likely cause of reduced radial growth was mean temperature that exceeded optimal growth ranges, exacerbated by temperature extremes in ranges that lead to photoinhibition. The latter case was evident in the two warmest growing seasons (2013 and 2017), marked by extended periods of high daytime temperature (>30 °C) followed by early cessation of radial growth independent of seasonal precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• May minimum temperature is the primary driver of budburst in boreal conifers. • P. mariana showed the highest response to warmer springs and P. glauca the lowest. • Precipitation's effect on budburst is limited when compared to temperature. • Changes in bud phenology may disrupt host-insect interactions. • Budburst timing correlates with latitude and ecological provinces. Budburst is a pivotal event in plant life, representing a crucial response to seasonal meteorological shifts. Boreal tree species exhibit species-specific phenologies, and the rate of phenological changes under warming conditions may differ among these species. In this study we aim to investigate the timing of budburst in three coniferous species [Balsam fir (Abies balsamea), black spruce (Picea mariana) and white spruce (Picea glauca) (Pinaceae)]; identify the main drivers of budburst, its rate of advance and the spatiotemporal patterns of budburst in relation to climate across Canada using a time period of 1980–2021. The timing of budburst was observed at 2839 locations stretching from Alberta to Newfoundland. We developed response functions between budburst and climate (air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) and used the strongest correlations to test their effect on budburst using species, time and the ecoclimatic framework of Canadian ecoprovinces. We applied spatially constrained multivariate clustering and identified natural budburst clustering across Canada. We found a baseline difference of 17 days in the budburst of black spruce relative to that of balsam fir and white spruce. Mean minimum temperature of May was negatively correlated with budburst date. Black spruce advanced budburst at a rate of change per degree of temperature (−3.33 days °C−1), twice that of balsam fir and white spruce (−1.53 and −1.27 days °C−1, respectively). Cluster distribution of budburst timing matched well with the distribution of Canadian ecoprovinces. Budburst within the clusters followed clinal patterns in temperature across Canada. Mean minimum temperature in May is the main factor driving budburst in northern tree species. Under a warmer spring, we project an earlier budburst, with black spruce being the species expected to show the greatest rate of change. The identified clustering patterns did not vary with precipitation, which represents the primary longitudinal gradient across Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trees growing near the Arctic treeline have long been used to reconstruct past climates. However, recent studies have shown deterioration of historically strong positive correlations between air temperature and tree growth (known as "divergence"). Divergence has important implications for confidence in paleoclimate reconstructions and ecosystem–atmosphere carbon exchange. Studies in the Brooks Range of northern Alaska showed that white spruce in the west increased growth in response to late 20th century warming, whereas those in the east failed to show a growth increase. In an earlier study across four watersheds in the Brooks Range, we tested and rejected the hypothesis that divergence in the easternmost watershed reflects moisture limitation of growth. Here, using 16 sites distributed across the same four watersheds, we tested an alternative hypothesis, that greater nutrient limitation in the east may have impeded positive growth responses to warming. Climate comparison across the four Brooks Range study watersheds revealed that, although the easternmost watershed generally had a drier growing‐season climate, the most consistent difference was that winter air temperature and both winter and summer soil temperatures were much colder in the central and eastern watersheds. Soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and tree growth were all generally lower in the central and eastern than in the western watersheds. Foliar phosphorus concentration was the best predictor of spatial variation in branch extension growth—a finding that is somewhat inconsistent with the theory that forest productivity on young, glacially derived soils should be strongly nitrogen limited. Experimental fertilization yielded the greatest growth increase in the eastern, an intermediate response in the central, and the smallest growth increase in the western watershed, generally mirroring trends in soil temperature, soil nutrient availability, foliar nutrient concentrations, and growth of control trees. Our results confirm that growth in the easternmost watershed is more nutrient limited and suggest that phosphorus limitation may be at least as important as nitrogen limitation of growth. We hypothesize that cold soil effects on tree access to nutrients might explain divergence in the eastern Brooks Range and elsewhere near the Arctic treeline, particularly in areas with cold winters and widespread permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]