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• The nexus between forest-based climate mitigation and health is poorly researched. • This scoping review identified exposure pathways and health co-benefits from forests. • There is potential for synergies between forest management and health benefits. • Interdisciplinary efforts are required for advancement of research and understanding. Climate change is a pressing global challenge with profound implications for human health. Forest-based climate change mitigation strategies, such as afforestation, reforestation, and sustainable forest management, offer promising solutions to mitigate climate change and simultaneously yield substantial co-benefits for human health. The objective of this scoping review was to examine research trends related to the interdisciplinary nexus between forests as carbon sinks and human health co-benefits. We developed a conceptual framework model, supporting the inclusion of exposure pathways, such as recreational opportunities or aesthetic experiences, in the co-benefit context. We used a scoping review methodology to identify the proportion of European research on forest-based mitigation strategies that acknowledge the interconnection between mitigation strategies and human impacts. We also aimed to assess whether synergies and trade-offs between forest-based carbon sink capacity and human co-benefits has been analysed and quantified. From the initial 4,062 records retrieved, 349 reports analysed European forest management principles and factors related to climate change mitigation capacity. Of those, 97 studies acknowledged human co-benefits and 13 studies quantified the impacts on exposure pathways or health co-benefits and were included for full review. Our analysis demonstrates that there is potential for synergies related to optimising carbon sink capacity together with human co-benefits, but there is currently a lack of holistic research approaches assessing these interrelationships. We suggest enhanced interdisciplinary efforts, using for example multideterminant modelling approaches, to advance evidence and understanding of the forest and health nexus in the context of climate change mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Most of the NbS of Tropical drylands of India are not follow the IUCN standard criteria. • The Identified NbS are baised towards environmental services than addressing social needs of the people. • Improved NbS interventions requires intensive enagement of stakeholders for addressing social causes. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) is a flexible, adaptable, and multi-functional strategies employed to address climate change. However, all the claimed NbS are actually do not adhere the criteria of being NbS. Therefore, present study analysed 87 articles to appraise adherence of potential NbS as per the IUCN Global Standard, along with evaluation of flow of associated ecosystem services (ES). The review identified 39 interventions, out of which only twelve interventions adhered the criteria of NbS. Among the classified NbS, two interventions, namely, sustainable forest management (SFM) (80.83%) and haveli rejuvenation (75.61%) strongly adhered to the IUCN Standard. Lack of adherence in the non-classified NbS interventions was mainly attributed to absence of information on inclusive governance, monitoring and associated trade-offs. The identified 39 interventions were also observed to be enhancing a total of 37 ES, evaluated through 37 distinct indicators i.e. different and enhanced flow of ES were observed by the different NbS. However, the majority of classified NbS were biased towards flow of environmental services than social services. Present study results that all claimed NbS cannot fulfilled the intended objectives of NbS and thus cannot be classified under the NbS as per global standard. Moreover, assessing the flow of associated ES may be an additional support to broaden the scope of NbS implementation. Therefore, present study also highlights to integrate the flow of ES along with the adherence criteria of NbS. Moreover, the review also facilitate to understand constraints associated with the implementation of potential NbS interventions and thus, suggests considering wider aspects in the future researches for assessing the implementation of NbS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Restoration initiatives would benefit from implementing strategic adaptive management • Restoration initiatives should incorporate sustainable human livelihood-driven outcomes • Restoration should be approached as a component of wider economic development • In restoration, human well-being is equally important as biodiversity conservation Land use change, coupled with rapid human population growth, has increased ecosystem degradation, giving rise to ecosystem restoration initiatives worldwide. We conducted an assessment and reflection using a feedback framework for strategic adaptive management in three woodland restoration initiatives in South Africa. This is because assessment and reflection are critical components for successful strategic adaptive management. We found that the three restoration initiatives have had a limited emphasis on sustainable livelihood-driven outcomes, because the initiatives mainly aimed to restore biodiversity, ecosystem infrastructure and ecosystem services. Consequently, we propose a modified livelihood framework that suggests a more inclusive approach towards achieving positive human outcome-driven restoration of degraded woodlands. Based on the framework, we emphasise that restoration initiatives should seek to invest in ecosystem restoration in the context of sustainable development goals, to enhance people's livelihoods, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. Harmonizing the competing needs for resource allocation, sustainable interventions and livelihoods sustenance will be important, given the limited extent of alternative locally based livelihood options in the rural disadvantaged areas. This is because most of the rural population is largely dependent on woodland ecosystem services for their livelihoods. We then suggest that to ensure that human-driven outcomes are also equally prioritised; the assessment, reflection and feedback framework and the livelihoods framework should form part of restoration initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future projections indicate an expansion for both food and energy demands, which can increase pressure on land use, while there is an urgent global need for climate change mitigation. Bioenergy is foreseen as key option to meet future energy demands and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, however its sustainability depends on locations and regional characteristics. Simultaneously, agricultural production models that co-produce food, feed, and energy offer sustainability synergies and co-benefits, but site-specific sustainability assessments of their large-scale implementation are missing. This study presents a bottom-up approach to assess spatially explicit sustainability aspects of bioenergy-livestock integrated systems (BLI) in Brazil and shed light on their contribution to future energy demands, to climate change mitigation targets, and their impacts on selected ecosystem services, including bioenergy production, climate change mitigation, reduction of food competition, biodiversity conservation, and avoided deforestation. The proposed integration considers livestock intensification and use of biofuels by-products as animal feed supplement, taking advantage of synergies between these two value chains. The expansion of the BLI system in the Center-South region of Brazil produce up to 89 billion liters of ethanol, enough to meet future domestic ethanol demands from multiple shared socioeconomic pathways and generating surpluses for export. This production takes place on 16 million hectares of pastureland within the Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning, excluding the Amazon and Pantanal biomes, and biodiversity hotspots. BLI expansion mitigate up to 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq and generate 15 billion dollars of profits. The best locations to maximize the selected ecosystem services are west of São Paulo, east of Mato Grosso do Sul, and the south-central region of the states of Goiás. This study may encourage the formulation of enhanced public policies for the integration of bioenergy and livestock value chains and guide a sustainable large-scale deployment of BLI systems. • Bioenergy and livestock integration (BLI): co-production of food, feed and energy. • BLI systems: 89 billion liters of ethanol and 250 million tonnes of CO 2 eq mitigated. • Enough ethanol to meet future Brazilian demands and surplus to be exported. • Biomass expansion only on pastureland inside Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning. • Without land displacement and deforestation of native vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A high-resolution integrated assessment framework for estimating future watershed ecosystem services was proposed under the latest SSP-RCP scenarios; • The spatial–temporal dynamics on water-related ESs of the PRB were projected under the SSP-RCP scenarios; • The main driving factors affecting the spatial–temporal heterogeneity of water-related ESs of the PRB were identified under the SSP-RCP scenarios. The projection of future ecosystem service (ES) dynamics under SSP-RCP scenarios would be beneficial for the development of effective climate mitigation strategies for policymakers. However, current projection frameworks generally neglect the downscaling of high-resolution climate and land use data, leading to uncertainties in the simulation of ESs under the SSP-RCP scenarios. To address this issue, this study proposes an integrated analysis framework to downscale climate and land use data. We first identified areas of high risk in terms of inadequate water-related ESs in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) of China. Subsequently, we analyzed key socio-environmental factors driving the dynamics of water-related ESs under future SSP-RCP scenarios. The results indicate that 1) water-related ESs in the PRB are expected to show an overall increasing trend, 2) the sub-watersheds located in the downstream is at a higher risk of experiencing insufficient supply capacity for water-related ESs, and 3) under the coupling effects of climate change, land use change, and socio-economic development, drastic changes in future land use are expected to have a stronger impact on watershed ESs than the climate (i.e., global warming). Our work provides valuable insights for policymakers and managers regarding future water and land resource planning. The proposed framework can be integrated with other hydrological or land surface models to project the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of future watershed ESs with finer temporal resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The saltmarsh carbon storage potential is a key topic in blue carbon research and climate policy. Ecosystem service valuations provide valuable information to policymakers for habitat management and climate change mitigation policies. Yet, only few saltmarsh valuation studies have included the carbon storage service in the UK context. This paper investigates how the public values saltmarsh ecosystem services, focussing on the carbon storage service. We used a choice experiment to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) of a representative sample of the Scottish public to support interventions that would maintain or improve the provision of these services. Furthermore, we tested the effect of information on individuals' preferences and WTP with a split sample approach where one group received a treatment in the form of additional information. We found that (i) all attributes had a significant influence on individuals' choices; (ii) both groups had, on average, a positive marginal WTP for all presented ecosystem services; (iii) the treated sample had, on average, no significantly different marginal WTP for carbon storage than the control group. This paper adds to the limited literature on the saltmarsh carbon storage ecosystem service and demonstrates a developed nation's public's openness to nature-based climate change mitigation solutions. [Display omitted] • The Scottish public on average prefers saltmarsh management over the status quo. • Providing additional information reduced heterogeneity in WTP for carbon storage. • Most respondents preferred an improvement of all saltmarsh ecosystem services. • Therefore management should focus on both climate change mitigation and adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• ESs in past and future scenarios are modelled in a protected floodplain. • Changes in LULC and climate are considered. • Conservation initiatives increased carbon storage and flood mitigation. • Complete renaturing and climate change would lead to water-related ES tradeoffs. • Modelling makes trade-offs between ESs explicitly informative to decision-makers. The understanding of protection initiatives' effects on the delivery of Ecosystem Services (ESs) is of paramount importance to attain sustainable management in Protected Areas (PAs). Protected floodplains provide important ESs to local populations such as water flow regulation and climate regulation through carbon storage. This study investigates the effects of biodiversity protection initiatives (i.e. declaration of Protected Areas – PAs) and the related spatio-temporal land use/land cover (LULC) changes on ecosystem services (ESs) in the Nature Reserve of Paul do Boquilobo – NRPB (Central Portugal). Special focus was made on climate mitigation (i.e. carbon storage and sequestration) and water-related (flood mitigation, water regulation and supply) ESs. The analysis was performed using InVEST model. Three dates of past LULC conditions were considered in the analysis (1967, 1990 and 2015). Moreover, two future alternative LULC scenarios for 2050 were designed (a "Business"- BUS and a "Naturalization"- NAT scenario). The BUS scenario considers a LULC distribution towards high productive agricultural systems, considering only a restricted central core of natural areas, while the NAT scenario considers full coverage of natural areas. The two future extreme LULC scenarios were analyzed considering both no climate change and climate change effects on water-related services based on the pessimistic rcp8.5 climatic scenario. The results showed that PA declaration of NRPB after 1980 increased carbon storage-sequestration and flood mitigation (higher water storage, lower recharge and runoff). The analysis of future LULC scenarios demonstrated that the complete renaturing in combination with climate change (reduction of precipitation, increase of temperature) may lead to severe reduction of recharge and runoff. These results indicate that conflicts may appear between specific water regulation services by the application of PA initiatives in places where groundwater resources are limited or minimum ecological flows in surface waters are difficult to be preserved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Climate change has caused worldwide concern due to its adverse effects on the global ecosystem, economy and society. In this study, a new integrated framework was proposed for assessing the national vulnerability to climate change by considering both the sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Then, a first assessment of the spatial-temporal change in national vulnerability from 1996 to 2008 was provided from the global perspective. Finally, 171 countries were grouped, and hotspots of climate change were identified. Based on the results, the earth is more vulnerable than invulnerable, and the average rate of increase in the vulnerability index from 1996 to 2008 was 0.30%. African countries were identified as hotspots of vulnerability and instability in the changing climate, and 8 groups were clustered based on the key influencing index of 171 countries. The results of this new framework are consistent with the previous Fragile State Index and World Risk Index but provide more details and quantitative vulnerability analysis. The methods and results presented in this paper could be used as references for climate change adaption and policy at the global scale. Graphical abstract Image 106550 Highlights • A new method was proposed for assessing the vulnerability to climate change. • The spatial-temporal change in national vulnerability was provided. • Urrent earth become more vulnerable to climate change than ever before. • Key influencing factor were identified for effective adaption to climate change. • Countries were grouped, and hotspots of climate change were identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Latin America is one of the most urbanized region in the world, where patterns of urbanization are disorganized and disjoint from urban planning, with unknown effects for ecosystem services (ES). We evaluated the ES in Bogota and Santiago for a 30-year period. Using remote sensing data, models and census data we quantified carbon regulation, climate mitigation and recreation potential. We assessed ES provision changes and their spatio-temporal patterns using landscape metrics. Urban vegetation patterns differ between the two cities because of climate variability and greening policies. Bogota stored more carbon than Santiago given to climate effects, differences within city were the result of different policies and management. Climate mitigation showed similar behavior for both cities, influenced by global climate, densification and urban sprawling. Recreation potential increased in the inner-city and decrease at the outskirts, reflecting unplanned urban sprawling and increase population. Areas of high ecosystem services connected for Bogota and fragmented for Santiago. Bogota improved its environmental condition, as evaluated by ES provision, while Santiago worsens, even there was an increased in vegetation cover. Vegetation cover was not a sufficient indicator for ecosystem services and the distribution of it becomes highly relevant for informing mismatches between services and vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To limit global warming to 1.5 °C, vast amounts of CO 2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere via Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Enhancing the CO 2 sequestration of ecosystems will require not just one approach but a portfolio of CDR options, including so-called nature-based approaches alongside CDR options that are perceived as more technical. Creating a CDR "supply curve" would however imply that all carbon removals are considered to be perfect substitutes. The various co-benefits of nature-based CDR approaches militate against this. We discuss this aspect of nature-based solutions in connection with the enhancement of blue carbon ecosystems (BCE) such as mangrove or seagrass habitats. Enhancing BCEs can indeed contribute to CO 2 sequestration, but the value of their carbon storage is low compared to the overall contribution of their ecosystem services to wealth. Furthermore, their property rights are often unclear, i.e. not comprehensively defined or not enforced. Hence, payment schemes that only compensate BCE carbon sequestration could create tradeoffs at the expense of other important, often local, ecosystem services and might not result in socially optimal outcomes. Accordingly, one chance for preserving and restoring BCEs lies in the consideration of all services in potential compensation schemes for local communities. Also, local contexts, management structures, and benefit-sharing rules are crucial factors to be taken into account when setting up international payment schemes to support the use of BCEs and other nature- or ecosystem-based CDR. However, regarding these options as the only hope of achieving more CDR will very probably not bring about the desired outcome, either for climate mitigation or for ecosystem preservation. Unhalted degradation, in turn, will make matters worse due to the large amounts of stored carbon that would be released. Hence, countries committed to climate mitigation in line with the Paris targets should not hide behind vague pledges to enhance natural sinks for removing atmospheric CO 2 but commit to scaling up engineered CDR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decision-making resource stewardship models rely on statistical relationships between management actions and ecosystem services provisioning. The operationalization of management actions benefits from models capable to isolate synergic statistical relationships from trade-offs. We showcase two existing watershed planning studies requiring spatiotemporal operationalization to better schedule management actions. The study in Hawai'i Island (USA) focused on invasive species while another in Babeldaob Island (Republic of Palau) tackled wildfire management. Both planning exercises relied on Ecosystem Management Decision Support to populate hydrologically defined management units for supporting water resource decision-making. In this viewpoint we identify shortcomings and potential future directions aligned with shaping stewardship responses to the interactive constraints of climate mitigation and management costs within a very needed optimization framework capable to operationally support landscape managers and drive solutions on ES management and valuation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Climate smart forestry (CSF) indicators based on forest inventory are presented. • Indicators were projected under management scenarios with a simulation model. • National carbon stock increases with current management, but regions differ. • Trade-offs occur between mitigation, adaptation and ecosystem services (ES). • The presented framework can support policy in balancing ES in the context of CSF. Climate-smart forestry (CSF) has gained increasing attention in recent years. Yet, a framework to assess the three pillars of CSF, in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change and ecosystem service (ES) provision based on national forest inventory (NFI) data is currently lacking. In this study, we present an assessment framework of CSF based on forest indicators derived from NFI. To quantify the three pillars of CSF we defined 1) mitigation based on the forest carbon stock, 2) adaptation using biodiversity and susceptibility to disturbances caused by storm and bark beetles and 3) ES provision with timber production and protection against avalanches and rockfall. We demonstrate the application of this framework using Swiss NFI data and projections of future forest development under four different management scenarios. Our results show that, in general, the carbon stock is increasing at the national scale when current management practices are maintained. Increases are especially pronounced in the Jura and Southern Alps regions. Trade-offs occur between enhancing mitigation and adaption, and the sustainable provision of ES such as timber production. Scenarios with increased harvesting intensities lead to a higher timber supply in the short-term, while decreasing the carbon stock, biodiversity-related old-growth indicators and the protective function of forests. The indicator framework presented in this study provides a first methodological approach that can support policy making to balance the different forest services in the context of CSF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ecosystem services have synergies and trade-offs between sustainability dimensions. • The complex nature of ecosystem model output make communicating findings difficult. • We developed modeled based CIs to evaluate forest management strategies. • Composites were systematically evaluated across three regions and climate periods. Forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services, and ecosystem models can be applied to assess the contribution of different forest management strategies to climate mitigation and adaptation. Complex model output and trade-offs between environmental, economic, and social sustainability dimensions are difficult to convey. To facilitate stakeholder communication, we developed composite indicators based on ten ecosystem service indicators obtained from ecosystem model simulations representing 19 forestry management strategies across three ecoregions and climate scenario projections in Sweden. Eight alternative composites were generated around a central framework addressing sustainability aspects in terms of wood production, preservation of biodiversity, climate change mitigation and adaptation (risk management). A combination of principal component analysis, exploratory factor analysis, Cronbach's coefficient alpha, and hierarchical cluster analysis was applied to account for the statistical relationships between indicators. Z-score normalization was superior to min-max normalization in capturing differences among management strategies. Two weighting schemes were applied, based on policy prioritizations between sub-components that reflected 1) current policy with an equal emphasis on production and biodiversity, and 2) a stronger focus on nature protection. Equal emphasis generated a larger range of scores (76.0 ± 21.2) than the focus on nature protection (32.0 ± 5.8), as the latter would provide less production benefits and thereby fewer trade-offs between production and other aspects. The final scores of the 19 management strategies fell within a variance boundary of each other, showing their contribution to different policy targets and the usefulness of combining strategies at the landscape level. The composites displayed agreement across regions and scenarios. They indicated that a shift from even-aged conifer monocultures towards a combination of continuous cover, broadleaf-mixture, and unmanaged would work well for balancing goals under changing climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban tree cover contributes to human well-being through a variety of ecosystem services. In this study, we focus on the role that trees can play in reducing temperature during warm seasons and associated impacts on human health and well-being. We introduce a method for quantifying and valuing changes in premature mortality from extreme heat due to the changes in urban tree cover and apply this method to Baltimore City, Maryland. The model i-Tree Cool Air uses a water and energy balance to estimate hourly changes in air temperature due to alternative scenarios of tree cover applied across 653 Census Block Groups. The changes in temperature are applied to existing temperature–mortality models to estimate changes in health outcomes and associated values. Existing tree cover in Baltimore is estimated to reduce annual mortality by 543 deaths as compared to a 0% tree cover scenario. Increasing the area of current tree cover by 10% of each Census Block Group reduced baseline annual mortality by 83 to 247 deaths (valued at $0.68 –2.0 billion applying Value of Statistical Life estimates). Over half of the reduced mortality is from the over 65 year age group, who are among the most vulnerable to extreme heat. Reductions in air temperature due to increased tree cover were greatest in downtown Baltimore where tree cover is relatively low and impervious cover is relatively high. However, the greatest reductions in mortality occurred in the outskirts of Baltimore where a greater number of people who are over 65 years in age reside. Quantifying and valuing the health benefits of changes in air temperatures due to increased tree cover can inform climate adaptation and mitigation plans by decision makers. Developing adaptation strategies to effectively address these issues will become increasingly important in the future under changing climates and an aging population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urban streams can provide important services to cities population and support a wide biodiversity. • Yet, they have been neglected for centuries and their ecosystems are often highly degraded. • We propose a global, integrated system to assess urban streams ecosystems and services. • The tool includes five sections, 17 divisions, 89 indicators, and a scoring system. • UsAs contributes to promote urban stream restoration and better management. Urban streams and ecosystems are highly affected by the intense development of cities and an increase of impervious surfaces. If these environments are close to their pristine state, they can be considered a nature-based solution promoting the integration of both green and blue elements in the cities, while providing a wide range of services (e.g. better aesthetics, air quality, leisure areas, and mitigation of climatic changes). In view of this, the current study aimed to develop a holistic assessment tool for urban streams that can be used to highlight their importance and support decision makers in the elaboration of measures to recover urban streams. The tool called Urban stream Assessment system (UsAs) includes the assessment of (1) biodiversity, (2) ecological functions and habitat that are inherent components of the ecosystems, and (3) provisioning, regulating, and cultural services, following The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) and the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES). The tool includes 89 indicators belonging to 17 divisions (services and functions) selected from studies on urban areas and fluvial ecosystems. In addition, the tool introduces a method for the measurement of an indicator, rationale for the used indicator, positive and negative scope of the indicator, and reference to the proposed method. The tool incorporates also a step-by-step scoring system, which results in a global quality classification of streams. The UsAs tool was tested with a case study stream located in the city of Coimbra, Central Portugal. The final classification attributed to this stream was moderate, which is slightly higher than the ecological status, highlighting its potential ecosystem services (ES). However, the UsAs clearly showed a poor biodiversity (namely of aquatic invertebrates, amphibians, fish, aquatic mammals, and terrestrial insects), habitat conditions and the most compromised services that could be improved: water supply, air quality, health and well-being. The use of this novel tool supports also new research and knowledge on aquatic ecosystems and particularly urban streams by generating relevant data to answer and test important ecological questions, such as the influence of biodiversity in ecosystem functioning and services. Further investigation should focus more on tests in different types of urban streams, regions, and climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Enhancing and conserving carbon pools in vegetation is a major climate change mitigation strategy. The dynamics of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems depend on processes like photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition and combustion, anthropogenic activities like emission of greenhouse gases and climatic variations in rainfall and temperature, and is stored as biomass in different forms. The quantification of biomass is necessary to understand the productivity of forests, carbon sink and source dynamics and recommend ways to aid sequestration through supply side interventions like afforestation and demand side measures that check wood consumption. In this study, carbon sequestration based on the change in total carbon in two different scenarios using Markov chain and InVEST model is evaluated for the years 2000, 2018 and predicted for 2035. The results show that 1.351 Tg carbon has already been lost from 2000 to 2018 in the forest area of Sariska Tiger Reserve and another 0.107 Tg of carbon is expected to be lost in the predicted future, when we compare the land use land cover of the year 2035 with the present scenario. The local communities extract fuelwood by cutting down tree branches illegally, which leads to carbon loss into the atmosphere. The lower release of carbon in 2035 as compared to 2018 is because of forest management practices e.g., plantations done in the range Tehla-Talabberi, Sariska- Ganeshpura, Alwar buffer-Shoydanpura, Talvriksh-Manavaas, Akbarpur-Kalikhol, Ajabgarh-Jatwana. The study shows that the economic value of carbon lost from 2000 to 2018 is million $ 214.57 and if we see the economic value of the predicted year 2035, carbon sequestration is worth million $ 17.19. Outputs demonstrate the potential for restoration/reforestation and afforestation as the most practical carbon loss mitigation strategy and calls for improved access to cleaner energy sources where the renewable energy industry and government may pitch in. Image 1 • Markov chain and InVEST model were used to predict carbon sequestration. • Prediction maps revealed that open forest will be decreased in future. • Total carbon sequestration decreased 1.351 Tg during 2000–18. • It is predicted that −0.107 (Tg) carbon to be sequestered from 2018 to 35. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urbanisation and the associated growing climate change burdens pose risks to urban and global climate resilience. Urban greenhouse gas emissions fluctuate over time in response to energy demand, which is influenced by government programmes, economic activity, and demographics. In this research, we investigate the influence of policy on urban energy demand and its consequences on mitigating climate change impacts. Using a case study of Lisbon, Portugal from 2008 to 2016, we illustrate a combined use of an urban energy metabolism assessment coupled with a logarithmic mean Divisia index to isolate the changes in energy-related carbon emissions associated with policy changes. We then link these energy flows to life cycle emissions factors to build a multi-level assessment between local and non-local global warming potential. We find that in 2016 Lisbon's energy flows generated more than 2 Mt of CO 2 -equivalent emissions over their life cycles, 48% of which were direct emissions within the city. This corresponds to a decrease of around 37% in greenhouse gas emissions from 2008. Additionally, we estimate the potential of Lisbon's urban forests to sequester these emissions to understand the potential for climate change mitigation. Results show that Lisbon's urban forest can meet less than 1% of the emissions throughout the assessment period. We discuss the changes, concluding that urban forests are insufficient in size to meet the sequestration demands of the urban energy metabolism, and therefore the focus must be more attuned to reducing fossil fuel use in the urban trade and transport activities. • Carbon emissions from Lisbon's urban energy metabolism are dominated by diesel use in the trade and transportation sectors. • Carbon emissions from Lisbon's urban energy metabolism have decreased following energy policy interventions. • Less than 1% of Lisbon's energy-related carbon emissions are sequestered by urban forests. • Urban forests are insufficient in size to mitigate the demand for carbon sequestration. • Energy policy must focus on reducing urban demand for diesel and petrol by transport activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a dynamic global forest model to examine how U.S. tax reform could influence forest stocks and carbon sequestration. Scenario analysis estimates several impacts from adjusting current policies that affect timberland investment, area, harvests, and carbon. First, increases in tax rates faced by timberland owners cause timber assets to be revalued downward even though the physical forest is initially unchanged, resulting in substantial declines in both regeneration and management. Second, timber stocks fall over time, reflecting a decrease in investment. Third, tax revenues could increase by nearly $3.4 billion/yr compared to baseline, but at the expense of increasing trade deficits by up to $3.3 billion/yr. Fourth, timberland area could decrease by 12 million hectares. Last, cumulative carbon sequestration over the next 50 years could be reduced by more than 3 billion tCO2e, −22% from the current policy baseline if forestland tax incentives are removed. Fifth, maintaining the existing tax policies in perpetuity incentivizes carbon sequestration levels equivalent to imposing a price of $70/tCO2e on the forest sector, highlighting the ecosystem service benefits of maintaining current tax policy. Finally, we estimate that current US forest tax policy provides about $8 billion/yr in climate change mitigation benefits by 2050. • We model the impact of current forest taxation policy on the U.S. timber sector. • Tax provisions incentivize management, conservation, and carbon sequestration. • U.S. forest carbon could be reduced by 22% if tax provisions are removed. • Current policy equates to a carbon price of $70/tCO 2 e without tax incentives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long-term management of natural capital is essential for the stable and resilient flow of ecosystem services for future generations facing climatic uncertainty. Understanding its resilience to extreme natural events, using biological principles, and integrating them into more holistic systems-wide modelling techniques is crucial to evaluate and design the wider economic impacts from alternative management interventions. Here we developed a probabilistic and system-wide bio-economic model to measure extreme economic impacts from natural events using the financial concept of Value at Risk. We have applied the new extreme economic impact metric to measure the economy-wide impact from the disruption of mountain-biking recreational services in the Whakarewarewa peri-urban forest in Rotorua, New Zealand from a potential windthrow event. We identified that extreme natural events, such as windthrows, could exert a substantial impact on the urban forest-dependent regional economy. This impact could potentially be intensified by the CO 2 forest fertilization effects predicted under future climate scenarios and by adopting low-intensity silvicultural regimes currently rewarded by national climate change mitigation policies. Some of the insights from this study could be the precursors to develop robust adaptation strategies using robust decision-making techniques considering inclusive environmental-economic accounting frameworks. • Natural capital management is essential for services' resilience under climate change • Bio-economic model measuring impacts from extreme natural events using value-at-risk • Case of disrupted mountain-biking activities in urban forest from windthrow event • Climate change effects on forests will have wider impacts through ecosystem services • Managing forests to sequester carbon could have wide, unintended economic consequences [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands provide habitats for many species and a variety of ecosystem services worldwide. In this study we used an integrated biophysical-economic modeling approach with multi-objective optimization to investigate how alternative land-use and land-management (LULM) options jointly affect economic returns from marketed (timber, energy peat, restoration costs) and non-marketed public goods (water quality, GHG emissions, biodiversity) in a typical landscape dominated by peatlands in northern Finland. We considered several LULM options including no action (the current state will continue), bioenergy wood harvesting, intensive forest management, restoration, and energy peat extraction with three after use options (no after use, reforestation, rewetting). Our study revealed strong tradeoffs between biodiversity and ecosystem services in drained peatlands. Optimal LULM depended strongly on the chosen objectives, i.e. whether marketed or non-marketed goods were preferred. For example, when the objective was carbon neutral land-use, the no action option was mostly chosen, while bioenergy wood harvesting was mostly chosen when the objective was to provide economic and environmental benefits at the same time. The strong tradeoff between biodiversity and ecosystem services indicates that compromises are unavoidable in order to obtain a multi-functional landscape which provides biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation and water protection in a cost-effective manner. • Selection of alternative land-management options for peatlands was analyzed. • The cost-impact analysis utilized multi-objective optimization. • The variables were the NPV, biodiversity, climate impact, and water emissions. • A small decrease in the NPV resulted in a clear increase in environmental benefits. • Optimal land-management depended strongly on the chosen objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]