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Abstract: In the future it is believed that extreme coastal flooding events will increase (in frequency and intensity) as a result of climate change. We are investigating the flood risks in the eastern Irish Sea posed by extreme storm events. Here, an 11-year simulation (01/01/1996–01/01/2007) including wave–current interaction has been validated. These data can then be used to investigate the potential for coastal flooding in the study area. To accurately model a storm event in the eastern Irish Sea both wave effects and the influence of the external surge need to be considered. To simulate the waves, we have set up a one-way nested approach from a 1° North Atlantic model, to a 1.85km Irish Sea model, using the state-of-the-art 3rd-generation spectral WAve Model (WAM). This allows the influence of swell to be correctly represented. The Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal-Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) has been used to model the tide–surge interaction. To include the external surge we have set up a one-way nested approach from the 1/9° by 1/6° operational Continental Shelf surge model, to a 1.85km Irish Sea model. For the high resolution Irish Sea model we use a POLCOMS–WAM coupled model, to allow for the effects of wave–current interaction on the prediction of surges at the coast. Using two classification schemes the coupled model is shown to be good and often very good at predicting the surge, total water elevation and wave conditions. We also find the number of low level surge events has increased in the study area over the past decade. However, this time period is too short to determine any long-term trends in the wave and surge levels. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Most of the world's megacities are located in estuarine regions supporting commercial ports. Such locations are subject to sedimentation and require dredging to maintain activities. Liverpool Bay, northwest UK, is a region of freshwater influence and hypertidal conditions used to demonstrate the impact of baroclinicity when considering sediment disposal. Although tidal currents dominate the time-varying current and onshore sediment movement, baroclinic processes cause a 2-layer residual circulation that influences the longer-term sediment transport. A nested modelling system is applied to accurately simulate the circulation during a three month period. The hydrodynamic model is validated using coastal observations, and a Lagrangian particle tracking model is used to determine the pathways of 2 sediment mixtures representative of locally dredged material: a mix of 70% silt and 30% medium sand and a mix of 50% fine sand and 50% medium sand. Sediments are introduced at 3 active disposal sites within the Mersey Estuary in 2 different quantities (500 and 1500 Tonnes). Following release the majority (83% or more) of the particles remain within the estuary due to baroclinic influence. However, particles able to leave follow 2 distinct pathways, which primarily depend on the sediment grain size. Typically the finer sediment moves north and the coarser sediment west. Under solely barotropic conditions larger sediment volumes (up to 5 times more) can leave the estuary in a diffuse plume moving north. This demonstrates the necessity of considering baroclinic influence even within a hypertidal region with low freshwater inflow for accurate particle tracking studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a need to understand the interactions of waves and currents in the nearshore and estuarine areas. By using observational data and an advanced model an assessment of the wave–current interactions was performed in a hypertidal estuary. The circulation model includes both barotropic and baroclinic processes arising from tides, rivers and atmospheric forcing. It is coupled to a spectral wave model and a turbulence model. Waves within the estuary are strongly modulated by the tide. Significant wave height and period are mainly controlled by time-varying water depth, but wave periods are also affected by a Doppler shift produced by the current. The major-axis depth-averaged current component is tidally dominated and wave-induced processes do not have a significant effect on it. However, the inclusion of wave effects, in particular 3D radiation stress, improves the depth-averaged minor-axis (transverse) current component. The residual currents show a clear two-layer system, indicating that the baroclinic river influence is the dominant process. The wave effects are second order, but their consideration improves the long-term modelled residual circulation profile, specially the along estuary component. The main improvement appears when a 3-dimensional radiation stress coupling is considered. The 3D version of radiation stress produced better results than the 2D version. Within the estuary, wave setup has little effect on the storm surge, while 2-way wave–current interaction improved the wave simulation. Using a 3D Doppler shift further improved the model compared with using a 2D version. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]