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In 2014, FERC adopted a new theory of capital markets for the purpose of setting authorized returns-on-equity: that all observed dividends and interest rates were anomalous and therefore unreliable indicators of the returns necessary for investors to hold the stocks and bonds of transmission owners. The new theory, used to justify higher authorized ROEs, rejected evidence of fundamental conditions in capital markets and explicitly adopted arguments by investor-owned utilities regarding unreliable markets. After a judicial remand, FERC abandoned the new theory, but consumers in New England and the Midwest were arbitrarily charged hundreds of millions of dollars over several years due to unjust and unreasonable rates for transmission service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The paper examines the effect of bank-specific, financial structure and macroeconomic factors on the profitability of banks in Asian economies during 1995–2017. Design/methodology/approach: It uses the data of 2,446 banks across 47 Asian countries between 1995 and 2017 (41,582 year observations). The static and dynamic panel generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimation techniques are applied. Findings: The results show that banks that are highly dependent on nontraditional activities have lower net interest revenue and net interest margin but higher return on assets, return on equity and profit before tax. Higher opportunity cost, capitalization, demand deposits and market risk result in a better bank profits. Furthermore, banks with higher loan exposure and growth have more profit. However, nonperforming loans have negative and significant impact on bank profitability. Asian banks do not suffer from diseconomies of scale and scope. The author also finds that banks located in countries with high gross domestic product, inflation rates and high rates of interest or in financially developed economies offer better profits. High credit to the private sector reduces the bank profitability. This study finds evidence to support the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) hypothesis. It also provides evidence that the impact of financial turmoil on the profitability of the Asian banking sector is negative and significant and has severely weakened the Asian banking system. Originality/value: As Asia has become an important economic area and the Asian topic has not earned enough discussions, this paper is the first to examine Asian banks with the latest and a wider range of panel data that cover 2,446 banks at 47 Asian countries over the period 1995–2017. The present study is among the first to address the influence of financial turmoil on bank profitability in this region. It also studies new variables, such as demand deposits, opportunity cost and off-balance sheet activities, which have not been examined in relation to bank profitability. It also applies both static techniques and dynamic panel estimation techniques to analyze the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to carry out a preliminary analysis of the arbitrage pricing theory in Argentine capital market, with special emphasis on inflation as a variable of interest for an emerging country, an underdeveloped financial market, and a period under analysis with inflationary trends and exchange market intervention. To that end, we work with a theoretical-empirical method. In order to formulate the model, we make a theoretical approach to the subject, based mainly on scientific articles that examine the relationship between the rate of return on assets and inflation. We focus our empirical analysis in an econometric study of the shares' performance of 19 companies listed on Argentinian capital market in the 2005-2014 period, and the associations with variables of interest, especially macroeconomic ones, also including some control tests with microeconomic variables. The main findings are robust about the effect on firms' performance of the following explanatory variables: risk-free interest rate, market performance, temporary effects of "hinge" periods and sector effects. However, the results are not determinant in reference to the effect of the inflation and the exchange rate variables on stocks' performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early evidence suggests that Canadian farmland values increased in 2020. Farming returns were not negatively impacted by COVID‐19 and it appears as though farming returns will be strong into 2021. Low interest rates in 2020 contributed to substantial farmland value increases in the last half of 2020. There is some evidence that the development component of farmland values increased in 2020. The future consequences of COVID‐19 on farmland values are unclear. Some economists suggest that future inflationary risks have increased. A return to inflation rates comparable to those experienced in the 1970s is unlikely, but if increased inflation does materialize it will put upward pressure on farmland values, while increases in nominal and real interest rates will push farmland values down. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to study the impact of diversification of Turkish banking industry. The study covers the period of between 2010 and 2018 for 21 commercial banks that operate in Turkey. To find banks performance, several indicators were used to see their relation with the ratios of ROA and ROI. While Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) are used as dependent variable, a widely used income diversification index (HHI) is used as independent variable. The capital adequacy ratio, asset ratio, liquidity ratio, deposit growth rate, loan and provision ratio, which are considered to have an impact on the performance of the bank, are determined as control variables. The annual data of the banks included in the study for the period in question were subjected to panel data regression analysis and modeled using the Driscoll-Kraay (1998) estimator. The results of the paper suggest that the income diversification that banks have been conducted gives a positive contribution to their performances. More explicitly, it is observed that the diversification in their income sources which banks have been conducted by tending from interest income to out of/non-interest income has increased both their return on equity and return on assets. When the analysis findings are analyzed in terms of control variables, it is concluded that capital adequacy ratio, liquidity management and provision ratio have a meaningful effect on bank profitability. Among these factors, it has been observed that the effect of the capital adequacy ratio is positive whereas that of liquidity and reserve ratio is negative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As measured by Gini coefficients, fractile inequalities, and tail power laws, wealth is distributed less equally across people than are labor earnings. We study how luck, attitudes that shape saving decisions, and growth rates of labor earnings balance each other in ways that simultaneously shape joint distributions across people of labor earnings, age, and wealth together with an equilibrium rate of return on savings that plays a pivotal role in balancing contending forces. Strong motives for people to save and for firms to demand capital raise an equilibrium interest rate enough to make wealth grow faster than labor earnings. That makes cross-sectional wealth more unevenly distributed and have a fatter tail than labor earnings, as in US data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the conduct of fiscal policy in a financially integrated union in the presence of financial frictions. Frictions create a wedge between the return to investment and the union interest rate. This leads to an over-spending externality. While the social cost of spending is the return to investment, governments care mostly about the (depressed) interest rate they face. In other words, the crowding-out effects of public spending are partly "exported" to the rest of the union. We argue that it may be hard for the union to deal with this externality through the design of fiscal rules, which are bound to be shaped by the preferences of the median country and not by efficiency considerations. We also analyze how this overspending externality—and the union's ability to deal with it effectively—changes when the union is financially integrated with the rest of the world. Finally, we extend our model by introducing a zero lower bound on interest rates and show that, if financial frictions are severe enough, the union is pushed into a liquidity trap and the direction of the spending externality is reversed. At such times, fiscal rules that are appropriate during normal times might backfire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper presents a model for determining the optimal capital structure for cooperatives and explores the relationship between financial leverage and the ability of cooperatives to retire member equity. Design/methodology/approach: A model is developed to determine the optimal capital structure and explore the relationship between capital structure and the rate at which a cooperative can retire member equity. Using data from cooperative financial statements, ordinary least-squares regressions are conducted to test two hypotheses on capital structure and equity retirement. Findings: The model shows that the optimal capital structure is determined by the ratio of the rate of return on capital employed to the interest rate on borrowed capital and the required level of interest coverage. The regressions suggest that cooperatives choose their capital structure largely according to the rate of return on capital employed and the interest rate in a manner consistent with maximizing the rate of return on equity and that the rate at which cooperatives can retire member equity is directly related to leverage. Research limitations/implications: The model does not consider unallocated earnings. Analysis of the relationship between leverage and equity retirement yields results contrary to the assumptions of earlier studies. Practical implications: Cooperatives can use the model because the necessary parameters are easily understood and readily available from financial statements, lenders and industry sources. Originality/value: The model is developed specifically for determining the capital structure of cooperatives and differs substantially from the corporate model. A theoretical basis is provided for the relationship between leverage and equity retirement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In actuarial science related to pension systems, it is widely assumed that the rate at which the reserves cover the payment of annuities (calculated for a given number of lives) is equal to the expected rate of return of the portfolios in which such reserves are invested. Given this assumption, pension fund managers may take greater risks to realize higher returns and subsequently reduce their pension liabilities. This study demonstrates that the discount rate used to calculate a two-life annuity and the expected return on the portfolio are not necessarily equal. A stochastic-based model is used to determine the proper discount rate for calculating the two-life annuity. The model includes fluctuations of both the interest rate and the payments made by the annuity. In general, this study contributes to the stability of pension systems by determining the appropriate discount rate when computing required actuarial reserves or the portfolio's required rate of return given a reserve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors that affect the Canadian credit unions' financial performance which play an important role in providing financial services to the agriculture sector. Design/methodology/approach: We surveyed the literature to identify different performance metrics of credit unions and a set of possible factors that might affect their performance. We collected data related to different dependent and independent variables from financial statements and balance sheets of 189 credit unions and from general websites like Statistics Canada and Bank of Canada. Then, we imputed the missing data and developed fixed effect and random effect panel data regression models. First, we used return on asset as the main dependent variable. Afterwards, we used six performance metrics to check the robustness of our models. Findings: From an initial list of 16 possible factors that might affect the financial performance of a credit union, we were able to narrow the factors down to the nine most significant ones. It was observed that credit unions in the prairies were more likely to perform well financially as compared to other provinces. Membership size, the size of a credit union in terms of total assets, capital adequacy ratio, market penetration, diversification of income, inflation rate and provincial GDP and interest rates were significant. The cross-sectional analysis performed confirmed the findings of the fixed effect panel data models. Research limitations/implications: This study has a limitation concerning the number of years included into the time series analysis. Only ten years worth of data were available. Practical implications: Results provide credit union management, service providers for credit unions and market analysts with a current understanding of how different internal and external factors might affect return on assets, return on equity, delinquency, cash ratio, efficiency ratio, asset growth and loan growth. Our models can be used to predict financial performance of credit unions based on the defined significant variables. Originality/value: Although there is a wide body of literature that studies performance of banks, not many studies focus on credit unions. Moreover, the existing studies are based on credit unions in United States or Europe, and literature on Canadian credit unions is scarce. The data collected covered 189 Canadian credit unions. To our knowledge this is the first study that looks at the various internal, external and regulatory factors together that affect the credit unions in various jurisdictions of Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Profitability is important for insurance companies as it is indicator of whether they are able to continue their activities and fulfill their obligations to policyholders. The aim of this study is to find out most important firm-specific and macroeconomic variables affecting profitability of non-life insurance companies in Turkey. The study for non-life insurance companies covers the period between 2006 and 2017 for 21 companies. ROA is used as measure of profitability. According to the fxed effects panel data model results: there is statistically significant positive relationship with size, liquidity, investment yield, age, GDP growth rate, interest rate and profitability while there is negative relationship with premium growth rate, loss ratio, leverage ratio, solvency and profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses an ex-post evaluation method to estimate the optimal external funding level that maximizes the benefit of agro-pastoral enterprises supported by the youth program for the Promotion of Entrepreneurship in Agro-pastoral Activities (PEA-Youth Program) in the Centre region of Cameroon. The Linear Programming (LP) model recommends a personal contribution between 238,510 and 995,000 FCFA for each enterprise. It also recommends full use of start-up/subsidized credit (1,200,000 FCFA) for each activity, which can be justified by its zero interest rate (0%) as compared to the productive credit (15% interest rate) whose use(<1,500,000 FCFA) is recommended for short cycle activities (poultry, maize) and not recommended for long cycle activities (piggery, plantain, cassava production). The results of LP rotation restriction are similar to the profitability results using the economic rate of return (ERR) and suggest monoculture as profitable to only one activity (plantain), while the four remaining enterprises (maize, piggery, poultry, cassava) could be profitable if undertaken simultaneously or in association. Hence, the PEA-Youth Program should consider funding several activities at the same time, increasing the level of subsidized credit for short cycle agro-pastoral enterprises whereas productive credit should instead be revised downwards or eliminated completely for long cycle activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interest rate and the market price of risk may be stochastic in a real-world financial market. In this paper, the interest rate is assumed to be driven by a stochastic affine interest rate model and the market price of risk from the stock market is a mean-reverting process. In addition, the dynamics of the stock are simultaneously driven by random sources of interest rate and the stock market itself. In pension fund management, different fund managers may have different risk preferences. We suppose risk preference is described by the hyperbolic absolute risk aversion utility, which is a general utility function describing different risk preferences. Legendre transform-dual theory is presented to successfully obtain explicit expressions for optimal strategies. A numerical example illustrates the sensitivity of optimal strategies to market parameters. Theoretical results imply that the risks from stochastic interest rate and stochastic return may be completely hedged by adopting specific portfolios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rate of wealth accumulation is discussed, and an expression for a momentary rate of capital return is presented. An expected value of the wealth accumulation rate is produced. The return rates depend on any yield function. Three different yield functions are applied, two of them published in the literature, and a third one parametrized using a comprehensive growth model. A common economic objective function, as well as a third known objective function, are applied and compared with the clarified wealth accumulation rate. While direct optimization of wealth appreciation rate always yields best results, procedures gained by maximizing the internal rate of return are only slightly inferior. With external discounting interest rate, the maximization of net present value yields arbitrary results, the financial consequences being at worst devastating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines the impact of changes in interest rate and exchange rates and their unexpected changes on industry and size portfolio returns on the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) controlling for the 2007/2008 financial crisis. Three main exchange rates (FX) namely, Ghana cedis (Gh¢)/US dollar, Gh¢/Great Britain Pounds (GBP) and the Gh¢/Euro are used. We use OLS, GARCH and ARIMA in our estimations. The study found that only depreciation of the Gh¢/USD reduces the returns of financial stocks and large firms. There is a direct positive impact of the financial crisis on the returns due to investment shift from developed markets where crisis occurs. Variations in the returns are mostly explained by the market index returns (RM), which has a positive impact. However, we find that the positive impact of RM on the portfolio returns (finance, medium and large portfolios) is reduced during the financial crisis. The results largely reveal that shocks to the conditional variance are highly persistent and the response of volatility decays at a slower rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to introduce a capital return rate function for growth processes, and apply it to financial sustainability considerations in growing multiannual plants. Design/methodology/approach: A partition function of change rate of capitalization is introduced, as well as that of capitalization itself, and the expected value of capital return rate is produced as the ratio of the two functions. Findings: Financial sustainability significantly differs from maximum-yield sustainability, and does not depend on any external interest rate. Research limitations/implications: It is proposed that financial considerations should not be based on any arbitrary external interest. Neither should the shape of any yield function be neglected. Constancy of capital return rate in time is not assumed. Practical implications: Two forestry examples show that the capital return rate is sensitive to rotation time, and in particular to the level of initial investment. The proposed procedure can be applied in the absence of periodic boundary conditions in time. Originality/value: The methodology has not been applied in this field previously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we show how we can deploy machine learning techniques in the context of traditional quant problems. We illustrate that for many classical problems, we can arrive at speed-ups of several orders of magnitude by deploying machine learning techniques based on Gaussian process regression. The price we have to pay for this extra speed is some loss of accuracy. However, we show that this reduced accuracy is often well within reasonable limits and hence very acceptable from a practical point of view. The concrete examples concern fitting and estimation. In the fitting context, we fit sophisticated Greek profiles and summarize implied volatility surfaces. In the estimation context, we reduce computation times for the calculation of vanilla option values under advanced models, the pricing of American options and the pricing of exotic options under models beyond the Black-Scholes setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tries to link the uncovered interest rate parity condition to the discussion about interest rate convergence in currency unions. Techniques of fractional cointegration analysis are used to examine the relationship between German and Spanish government bond yields with maturities of two, five, seven and ten years in the period 05 January 2001 to 29 December 2006. Back then (in the good times of the currency union) financial markets did not have to fear exchange rate risk and sovereign credit risk. Thus, the risk premia to be observed were small and driven by liquidity risk. Economic theory suggests that a cointegration vector of between the interest rates can only exist when markets do not expect exchange rate movements and the risk premium is not interest rate sensitive (or practically speaking the sensitivity is low). Given the data set examined here, it is probably no surprise that the interest rates of the two countries are cointegrated and that the cointegration vector of German and Spanish government bond yields with maturities of two, five and seven years seems to be . We then have also examined the degree of interest rate sensitivity of the yield spread between Spain and Germany. The differential between the yields of the two countries in all maturity brackets do not react to the level of interest rates in the currency union. This fits perfectly to our results with regard to the cointegration vector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest rates are currently very low in the countries. In these countries bonds are issued with low or negative yields. In this paper, I empirically investigate the factors that affect the price of bonds. I follow international arbitrage pricing theory to determine the relationship between factors and the price of bonds. The international arbitrage pricing theory applies a multi-linear regression model. The regression model is used for emerging markets and developing markets separately. I have a unique data set of 46 countries. The main data are the monthly returns on government bonds in the period 2010 - 2015. Exchange risk influences the bond prices. Currency movements can bring further yield for investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of debt is prevalent in the restaurant industry. While there have been numerous studies on restaurant capital structure, this study examines the relationship between firm performance and effective interest rate on debt used by restaurant firms. This study uses a sample of 56 publicly traded U.S. restaurant firms for the years 2012–2014. We examine the relationship between effective interest rates and firm performance as measured by approximate Tobin’s Q, return on assets, and return on equity. We find a significant and positive relationship between effective interest rates and return on equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper considers a multidimensional risk model with an investment return process modelled by a general càdlàg process. • The claim sizes from different lines of business are distributed according to the multivariate regular variation. • Conditions are proposed that can guarantee the uniformity of three types of ruin probabilities for the entire time horizon. • The conditions proposed are weak enough to be satisfied by some stochastic processes, such as the Lévy process, Vasicek model, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, Heston model, and Stochastic volatility model. Consider an insurer with d lines of business and the freedom to make risk-free and risky investments. The investment portfolio price process is described as a general càdlàg process. It is assumed that the claim sizes from different lines of business and their common inter-arrival times form a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random pairs, each pair obeying a particular dependence structure. With this dependence structure, claim sizes from different lines of business are distributed according to the multivariate regular variation. This paper proposes conditions that can be satisfied by several important stochastic processes, including the Lévy process, Vasicek interest rate model, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate model, Heston model, and Stochastic volatility model. Under these conditions, the uniform asymptotic expansions of ruin probabilities are derived, which hold uniformly for the entire time horizon. Numerical examples are provided as a means of illustrating the main results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The cost of using private finance is at the centre of the public private partnerships (PPPs) debate, but until now most works considered only the direct financial costs such as the loan interest rate and the shareholders return on equity and were based on various secondary sources. This paper focuses on seven shadow toll deals closed in Portugal between 1999 and 2002 and reports the financial costs of the PPP model considering also the associated transaction costs and is based on detailed information included in each concession's financial base case. The transaction costs include financial costs such as banking fees, due diligence costs and the impact of all cash distribution traps, such as reserve accounts or minimum-level of debt ratios. The PPP financial costs were then compared with the costs arising from raising public debt through a government or a public agency bond. Our analysis shows that the PPP ‘true' financing costs are, on average, 370 basis points above the cost of raising public debt and that the ‘transaction costs' account for around 40% of that financial premium. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Litigating return on equity disputes exposes public utilities to substantial uncertainty in today’s market and regulatory environment. Anomalous capital market conditions have led some regulators to modify their approaches to assessing ROE and to consider alternative metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate the liquidity preference hypothesis (LPH) for the term structure of interest rates in a different way. Instead of using bond returns as traditional approaches, we use interest rate surveys with market expectations in order to evaluate LPH. This approach allows us to disentangle the effect of the changes in interest rate expectations from the liquidity premium. We found empirical support for the LPH with Brazilian data using both traditional and survey methods. However, the evaluation with interest rate surveys gives a higher statistical confidence level than the traditional approach when we perform tests for term premium monotonicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between Karachi stock market 100 index and macroeconomic variables, i.e., inflation, industrial production, money supply, exchange rate and interest rate. The long term relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns has been analyzed by using Johnson Cointegration test, Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. The Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH LM) test provided prudent evidence about the presence of heteroskedasticity in the data. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model was used to find out the relationship between stock returns and the variance of the squared error terms as there was heteroskedastic trend in the data. The results show that the cointegrating relationship exists between stock prices and the macroeconomic variables in Pakistani stock market. The GARCH model showed the significant relationships after mitigating the heteroskedasticity. The consumer price index (CPI), money supply (MS), exchange rates (ER) and interest rates (IR) proved to be negatively associated with the stock returns (SR), while industrial production index (IPI) was found to be positively associated with the stock returns. All the variables were significantly associated to stock market returns except inflation. The investors can use the GARCH results for investment decisions that is the returns are volatile not only due to any happening today but also on the past. The findings suggest that in the long run, the Pakistani stock market is reactive to macroeconomic indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we show that the degree of central bank independence influences the optimal choice of monetary policy strategy during potentially unsustainable asset price booms. We assume that central bankers have to choose between a policy that preemptively raises short-term real interest rates in the boom phase to prevent the build-up of a financial market crisis scenario and the cleaning-up strategy that ignores its impact on the likelihood of a future crisis. We find that the more independent central bankers are, the more likely it is that they refrain from implementing preemptive monetary tightening to maintain financial stability. These results stand in sharp contrast with the seemingly predominant view that central bank independence fosters financial stability. The intuition underlying these results is that a preemptive interest rate hike gives rise to, among other things, a lower inflation rate in the boom period. Whether this disinflation creates additional costs or benefits depends on the degree of central bank independence. It can benefit dependent central bankers who otherwise would suffer from a higher inflation bias; however, for independent central bankers, this disinflation leads to an undesirable undershooting of their inflation target. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article develops the relationships among real business cycle (RBC) theory, Austrian business cycle (ABC) theory, and Minsky''s financial instability hypothesis (FIH). In RBC models, recessions are caused on the supply side by random technology shocks which are independent of monetary policy. However, in ABC models, credit expansion results in negative productivity shocks, as the marginal return on investment is lowered and the production structure is extended by commitment to more capital-intensive activities. Thus, ABC theory helps resolve several problems with RBC theory. The FIH describes a process of endogenous overleveraging which unsustainably overvalues assets and exposes the financial sector to greater risk. This paper argues that the overleveraging described by the FIH is compatible with the unsustainable expansion of production described in ABC theory, and further argues that credit expansion would both provide additional funds to finance overleveraging, as well as encourage the process by making it cheaper with lower interest rates. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the macro economic variables and ISE-100 Index returns. In this study which includes the monthly data from January 2002 to June 2012, ISE-100 index returns are determined as dependent variable and interest rate, money supply, industrial production index and exchange rates are determined as independent variables. We have used ordinaryleast squares method of multiple regression models. According to research findings, there is a positive relation between stock returns and Money supply (M2) and a negative relation with exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act called for a government study of the regulatory options for on-line Peer-to-Peer lending. On-line P2P sites, most notably for-profit sites Prosper.com and LendingClub.com, offer individual "investors" the chance to lend funds to individual "borrowers." The sites promise lower interest rates for borrowers and high rates of return for investors. In addition to the media attention such sites have generated, they also raise significant regulatory concerns on both the state and federal level. The Government Accountability Office report produced in response to the Dodd-Frank Act failed to make a strong recommendation between two primary regulatory options--a multi-faceted regulatory approach in which different federal and state agencies would exercise authority over different aspects of on-line P2P lending, or a single-regulator approach, in which a single agency (most likely the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) would be given total regulatory control over on-line P2P lending. After discussing the origins of on-line P2P lending, its particular risks, and its place in the broader context of non-commercial lending, this paper argues in favor of a multi-agency regulatory approach for on-line P2P that mirrors the approach used to regulate traditional lending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of higher education qualifications on the earnings of graduates in the U.K. by subject studied. We use data from the recent U.K. Labour Force Surveys which provide a sufficiently large sample to consider the effects of the subject studied, class of first degree, and postgraduate qualifications. Ordinary Least Squares estimates show high average returns for women that does not differ by subject. For men, we find very large returns for Law, Economics and Management but not for other subjects. Degree class has large effects in all subjects suggesting the possibility of large returns to effort. Postgraduate study has large effects, independently of first degree class. A large rise in tuition fees across all subjects has only a modest impact on relative rates of return suggesting that little substitution across subjects would occur. The strong message that comes out of this research is that even a large rise in tuition fees makes little difference to the quality of the investment – those subjects that offer high returns (LEM for men, and all subjects for women) continue to do so. And those subjects that do not (especially OSSAH for men) will continue to offer poor returns. The effect of fee rises is dwarfed by existing cross subject differences in returns. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Viewing the future value of a cash flow stream as a polynomial in the compounding factor (being one plus the interest rate), this article uses Ruffini's rule in the synthetic division of a polynomial to provide insight linking several discounted cash flow analysis concepts. We use the polynomial remainder theorem to relate the concepts of divisor, quotient, and remainder to concepts in cash flow analysis-future value, present value, interest rate, account balance, and internal rate(s) of return-establishing a remainder theorem for the future value of a cash flow. Our exposition suggests that future value analysis is perhaps more direct and mathematically more transparent than attention paid to examining present value. This article extends previous work on the resolution of multiple rates of return when the interest rate used in our analysis equals an internal rate of return of the cash flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Difference between the discount rate on consumption and the rate of return on investment is often taken to prevent the former's being used as a social discount rate. Yet techniques have long been known for incorporating both these rates in a shadow price of investment funds. Assumptions about the proportion of investment revenues saved and reinvested are crucial in determining whether a low discount rate favours or discriminates against long-term environmental values. Even a moderate saving rate may make the shadow price of funds indefinitely large. The conceptually correct discount rate then becomes the growth rate of investment funds, and the relative value of environmental effects becomes zero. Stochastic variation in rate of return makes this result more likely. Such an outcome may be avoided by setting reinvestment to zero, or assuming convergence of rates of return and discount, but no firm justification exists for these stratagems. However, various reasonable assumptions about environmental costs – especially, that they embody an investment element, or require adequate compensation to be paid – may make such costs indefinite also, and therefore capable of standing against indefinite values of investible funds. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article focuses on the feasibility of teaching senior school students in Australia the methods of calculating the rate of return on investments. Since students know the concept of a compound interest rate, the computations for the internal rate of return (IRR) and the continuously rate of return may be taught with efficiency. The computations for equations reducible to quadratics and integration involving exponential functions are explained. Integrating such calculations into the curriculum of senior school students will reportedly allow them to be exposed to the financial world.

Abstract: A first order linear differential equation is used to describe the dynamics of an investment fund that promises more than it can deliver, also known as a Ponzi scheme. The model is based on a promised, unrealistic interest rate; on the actual, realized nominal interest rate; on the rate at which new deposits are accumulated and on the withdrawal rate. Conditions on these parameters are given for the fund to be solvent or to collapse. The model is fitted to data available on Charles Ponzi’s 1920 eponymous scheme and illustrated with a philanthropic version of the scheme. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The purpose of this study is to analyze bank behavior in Chile over time, looking at how their balance sheets and performance move both in the short and long run, and how they react to macroeconomic shocks. The evolution of banking aggregates over an 18 year period (1989-2006), using quarterly data is examined. Techniques common in the real business cycle literature are applied to establish empirical patterns. Robustness tests using several filters are performed. The effects of macro shocks on banking variables are analyzed, both by means of an event study, and by estimating impulse responses with VARs. The results show that credit lags the cycle, demand deposits lead it, both being procyclical, while the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is countercyclical. In addition, a shock to interest rates reduces loans (total, commercial, consumption), and increases non performing loans (NPL) and the capital adequacy ratio (CAR). A shock to GDP growth has a positive effect on loans, return over equity (ROE), and a negative impact on NPL and CAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existence and magnitude of risk premiums in the Brazilian term structure is not clear, particularly because it's a market in the process of development. Some year ago the Brazilian Central Bank created a system to measure market expectations for economic indicators, including the interest rates, and then give inputs to the inflation target regime. Nevertheless, if the system really represents "actual" expectations is a question to be answered. These are some of the motivations for this paper, together with the relation between the futures market and collected expectations, the risk premium for public debt securities and the relevance of these topics to public debt management. The main contributions are the measurement of the term structure of the risk premium in the Brazilian market, using the Kalman filter, and an estimation of market expectations. Furthermore, we investigate the expectations collected by the Central Bank and cover other minor topics, such as the determinants of the risk premium and the "government" premium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an efficient model for the term structure of interest rates when the interest rate takes very small values. We make the following choices: (i) we model the short-term interest rate, (ii) we assume that once the interest rate reaches zero, it stays there and we have to wait for a random time until the rate is reinitialized to a (possibly random) strictly positive value. This setting ensures that all term rates are strictly positive. Our objective is to provide a simple method to price zero-coupon bonds. A basic statistical study of the data at hand indeed suggests a switch to a different mode of behaviour when we get to a low level of interest rates. We introduce a variable for the time already spent at 0 (during the last stay) and derive the pricing equation for the bond. We then solve this partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) on its entire domain using a finite difference method (Cranck-Nicholson scheme), a method of characteristics and a fixed point algorithm. Resulting yield curves can exhibit many different shapes, including the S shape observed on the recent Japanese market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we extended Goyal's model to develop an Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model in which the supplier offers the retailer the permissible delay period M, and the retailer in turn provides the trade credit period N (with N ≤ M) to his/her customers. In addition, we assume that (1) the retailer's selling price per unit is necessarily higher than its unit cost, and (2) the interest rate charged by a supplier or a bank is not necessarily higher than the retailer's investment return rate. We then establish an appropriate EOQ model with trade credit financing, and provide an easy-to-use closed-form solution to the problem. Furthermore, we find it is possible that a well-established buyer may order a lower quantity and take the benefit of the permissible delay more frequently, which contradicts to the result by the previous researchers. Finally, we perform some sensitivity analyses to illustrate the theoretical results and obtain some managerial results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the relationship between monetary policy and the yield curve which can be used to examine the behavior of long-term rates during the occurrence of monetary policy tightening. The response of the yield curve to policy tightening is discussed. The elements of interest rate on any security is identified. The article also offers information on the occurrence of yield curve rotations.

This article presents a technique for determining project acceptability and for rank ordering two mutually exclusive projects when multiple internal rates of return are present. This method is consistent with the net present value approach. In focusing on the even or odd parity of the number of real internal rates of return that are greater than the cost of capital, this method is shown to have generality and simplicity. This article also compares the proposed technique with the relevant internal rate of return approach defined in the recent literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An enterprise information portal (EIP) is viewed as a knowledge community. Activity theory provides a framework to study such a community: members of an EIP conduct specific tasks that are assigned through a division of labor. Each member of an enterprise information portal can undergo three distinct types of learning processes: learning-by-investment, learning-by-doing, and learning-from-others. Through these three types of learning processes, each member achieves specialized knowledge that is related to his or her own task. Cumulative knowledge resulting from the learning processes is considered in terms of two distinct attributes: depth and breadth of knowledge. This paper formulates a mathematical model and defines the goal of an EIP member as maximizing the net benefits of knowledge resulting from individual investment and effort. Numerical examples are provided to analyze patterns of optimal investment and effort plans as well as the resulting accumulated knowledge. The results provide useful managerial implications. In business conditions characterized by high interest rates or high internal rate of returns, it is preferable for members to delay spending their resources for learning. Intensive investment and efforts to obtain knowledge are preferable when the discount rate of costs is high, when knowledge is durable, when the value of knowledge is high, when the initial level of knowledge is high, when the productivity of the learning process is high, and when sufficient knowledge is transferred from other members. On the other hand, the size of the EIP has a positive or negative effect depending on the attribute of knowledge and the productivity of teaming processes. Further properties of the optimal decisions and learning processes are analyzed and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A profit-making financial system is introduced into the Pasinetti model of growth and distribution with the aim of showing that Pasinetti's formulation implicitly incorporated a well-defined theory of finance. In a golden age, the financial sector must set the rates of interest below the rate of profit to compensate for the remuneration of risks of enterprise generated by expectations realized in the broad, but not at the level of individual firms. If there exists a relationship between investment and finance, intermediaries contribute to the determination of the rates of profit and growth. Their decisions may not allow a competitive economy to return to the golden age once pushed away from it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we present a method for determining project acceptability in the presence of multiple internal rates of return. An internal rate of return is an interest rate that equates the present worth of a cash flow stream to zero. When unique, it provides valuable information about the return on the investment and is often viewed as a measure of efficiency. Unfortunately, this analysis is clouded when there are multiple internal rates of return, which can occur when a project is defined by a mixture of positive and negative cash flows. While many methods have been presented in the literature to deal with this problem, we believe ours to be unique in that it does not rely on the computation of another measure of worth, but rather, the identification of the relevant rate of return from the set of internal rates of return. We show that this rate always produces decisions consistent with present worth under the assumption that at least one real internal rate of return exists. In doing so, we provide new definitions of when a project is borrowing from, or loaning to, the firm. These definitions help in understanding the meaning of multiple internal rates of return, which is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Patchouli oil is a commercially important essential oil in the flavor and fragrance industry. In this study, a technoeconomic feasibility assessment was conducted to commission a supercritical fluid extraction plant for the extraction of patchouli oil in Singapore. The study revealed that the manufacturing cost for patchouli oil is 53.87 USD/kg for a plant processing capacity of 400,000 kg of raw material/year with the cost of utilities being a major contributing factor to the manufacturing cost. In addition, financial indicators such as net present value, discount cash flow rate of return, return on investment and payback period have been applied to evaluate the profitability of the supercritical fluid extraction plant. The total investment cost for the plant is around 4.77 million USD. Calculation of the discounted cash flow rate of return shows that a maximum interest rate of 26.3% can be loaned from investors and the project would still breakeven. At an interest rate of 5.25%, the return on investment for the project is calculated to be 27.4% and the payback time is estimated to be 5.4 years with a total profit of 5.27 million USD after 10 years. [Display omitted] • Cost estimation and profitability analysis were applied on the SFE of patchouli oil. • Specific cost of manufacturing for patchouli oil was 53.87 USD/kg. • Cost of utilities is the largest contributor in the COM of patchouli oil. • Difference between selling price and patchouli oil COM showed economic feasibility. • Profitability study presented 27.4% ROI and payback time of 5.4 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a metric commonly used in the academic literature. Electricity-supply projects can be financed by the project developer, equity partners, or through debt, with the timing of investments and returns different for all three. The LCOE metric is equally applicable to all three sources of financing although the calculation does not explicitly represent these differences in timing. The LCOE metric implicitly assumes that surplus revenue earned during the operation of a powerplant can be re-invested with a rate of return equal to the return on equity, an assumption that is not valid. A modified LCOE equation that accounts for this difference and for steadily declining output and increasing O&M costs is presented here. The errors entailed in using a simple weighting of the returns to equity and debt (the weighted average cost of capital, WACC) in the non-linear LCOE equation entails an error of less than 0.5% if the interest rate on surplus revenues equals the discount rate. Otherwise, it is necessary to separately consider the equity and debt financing portions (even if returns to equity and debt are the same, as the modified LCOE equation applies only to the debt portion). • The LCOE equation is equally applicable to alternative financing structures. • A modified LCOE equation accounts for interest rate differing from discount rate. • A modified LCOE equation accounts for increasing O&M costs and declining output. • Use of WACC should be abandoned in favor of separate debt and equity calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this article is to investigate a speculative trading system with a constant magnitude of return rate. We consider speculative operations related to the exchange rate given as the quotient of the base exchange medium by the quoted currency. An exchange medium is understood as any currency or any precious metal. The unit return is defined as the return expressed in the quoted currency by the amount of base exchange medium. All possible states of the exchange market form a finite elemental space. All knowledge about the dynamics of this market is presented as a prediction table describing the conditional probability distributions of incoming exchange rate changes. On the other hand, in the proposed trading system each speculative operation is concluded in such a way that the gross payment is determined by the given magnitude of unit return. The paper contains an analysis of the following evaluation criteria: annual number of transaction, success probability, expected unit payment, expected unit profit, risk index, unit risk premium, return rate, interest rate, and interest risk premium. Both of these indices can be used to select the effective trading systems. Effectiveness is considered in the local sense and in the global sense. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]