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By developing a continuous-time heterogeneous agent financial market model of multi-assets traded by fundamental and momentum investors, we provide a potential mechanism for generating time-varying dominance between fundamental and non-fundamental in financial markets. We show that investment constraints lead to the coexistence of a locally stable fundamental steady state and a locally stable limit cycle around the fundamental, characterized by a Bautin bifurcation. This provides a mechanism for market prices to switch stochastically between the two persistent but very different market states, leading to the coexistence and time-varying dominance of seemingly controversial efficient market and price momentum over different time periods. The model also generates other financial market stylized facts, such as spillover effects in both momentum and volatility, market booms, crashes, and correlation reduction due to cross-sectional momentum trading. Empirical evidence based on the U.S. market supports the main findings. The mechanism developed in this paper can be used to characterize time-varying economic dominance in economics and finance in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Instead of heuristical heterogeneity assumption in the current heterogeneous agent models (HAMs), we derive the trading heterogeneity by introducing information uncertainty about the fundamental value to a HAM. Conditional on their private information about the fundamental value, agents choose different trading strategies when optimizing their expected utilities. This provides a micro-foundation to heterogeneity and switching behavior of agents. We show that the HAM with trading heterogeneity originating from the incomplete information performs equally well, if not better than existing HAMs, in generating bubbles, crashes, and mean-reverting prices. The simulated time series matches with the S&P 500 in terms of power law distribution in returns, volatility clustering and long memory in volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper verifies the endogenous mechanism and economic intuition on volatility clustering using the coexistence of two locally stable attractors proposed by Gaunersdorfer et al. (2008) . By considering a simple asset pricing model with two types of boundedly rational traders, fundamentalists and trend followers, and noise traders, we provide theoretical conditions on the coexistence of a locally stable steady state and a locally stable invariant circle of the underlying nonlinear deterministic financial market model and show numerically that the interaction of the coexistence of the deterministic dynamics and noise processes can endogenously generate volatility clustering and long range dependence in volatility observed in financial markets. Economically, volatility clustering occurs when neither the fundamental nor trend following traders dominate the market and when traders switch more often between the two strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Financial markets are typically characterized by high (low) price level and low (high) volatility during boom (bust) periods, suggesting that price and volatility tend to move together with different market conditions/states. By proposing a simple heterogeneous agent model of fundamentalists and chartists with Markov chain regime-dependent expectations and applying the S&P 500 data from January 2000 to June 2010, we show that the estimation of the model matches well with the boom and bust periods in the US stock market. In addition, we find evidence of time-varying behavioural heterogeneity within-group and that the model exhibits good forecasting accuracy. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Within a continuous-time framework, this paper proposes a stochastic heterogeneous agent model (HAM) of financial markets with time delays to unify various moving average rules used in discrete-time HAMs. The time delay represents a memory length of a moving average rule in discrete-time HAMs. Intuitive conditions for the stability of the fundamental price of the deterministic model in terms of agents’ behavior parameters and memory length are obtained. It is found that an increase in memory length not only can destabilize the market price, resulting in oscillatory market price characterized by a Hopf bifurcation, but also can stabilize an otherwise unstable market price, leading to stability switching as the memory length increases. Numerical simulations show that the stochastic model is able to characterize long deviations of the market price from its fundamental price and excess volatility and generate most of the stylized facts observed in financial markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper establishes a continuous-time stochastic asset pricing model in a speculative financial market with fundamentalists and chartists by introducing a noisy fundamental price. By application of stochastic bifurcation theory, the limiting market equilibrium distribution is examined numerically. It is shown that speculative behaviour of chartists can cause the market price to display different forms of equilibrium distributions. In particular, when chartists are less active, there is a unique equilibrium distribution which is stable. However, when the chartists become more active, a new equilibrium distribution will be generated and become stable. The corresponding stationary density will change from a single peak to a crater-like density. The change of stationary distribution is characterized by a bimodal logarithm price distribution and fat tails. The paper demonstrates that stochastic bifurcation theory is a useful tool in providing insight into various types of financial market behaviour in a stochastic environment. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper is a contribution to the literature on the explanatory power and calibration of heterogeneous asset pricing models. We set out a new stochastic market-fraction asset pricing model of fundamentalists and trend followers under a market maker. Our model explains key features of financial market behaviour such as market dominance, convergence to the fundamental price and under- and over-reaction. We use the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system to characterize these features and statistical properties, including convergence of the limiting distribution and autocorrelation structure. We confirm these properties using Monte Carlo simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The market maker plays an important role in price formation, but his/her behavior and stabilizing impact on the market are relatively unclear, in particular in speculative markets. This paper develops a financial market model that examines the impact on market stability of the market maker, who acts as both a liquidity provider and an active investor in a market consisting of two types of boundedly rational speculative investors—the fundamentalists and trend followers. We show that the market maker does not necessarily stabilize the market when he/she actively manages the inventory to maximize profits, and that rather the market maker’s impact depends on the behavior of the speculators. Numerical simulations show that the model is able to generate outcomes for asset returns and market inventories that are consistent with empirical findings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper develops a dynamic model of a financial market where heterogeneous agents invest among multiple risky assets and a risk-free asset, under a market maker scenario. Particular attention is paid to the case of two risky assets and two agent types, fundamentalists and trend chasers, whose beliefs on both first and second moments of the conditional distribution of returns are based on past observations. Conditions for the stability of the “fundamental” equilibrium are established and the effect of the correlation between the risky assets is examined. It turns out that investors’ anticipated correlation and dynamic portfolio diversification do not always have a stabilizing role, but rather may act as a source of complexity in the financial market. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]