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New and enhanced processes will not be the only drivers toward a sustainable chemical industry. Implementing climate policies will impact all components of the chemical supply chain over the following decades, making improvements in energy generation, material extraction, or transportation contribute to reducing the overall impacts of chemical technologies. Including this synergistic effect when comparing technologies offers a clearer vision of their future potential and may allow researchers to support their sustainability propositions more strongly. Ammonia and methanol production account for more than fifty percent of the CO2 emissions in this industry and are, therefore, excellent case studies. This work performs a prospective life cycle assessment until 2050 for fossil, blue, wind, and solar-based technologies under climate policies aiming to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C, 2 °C, or 3.5 °C. The first finding is the inability of fossil-based routes to reduce their CO2 emissions beyond 10% by 2050 without tailored decarbonisation strategies, regardless of the chemical and climate policy considered. In contrast, green routes may produce chemicals with around 90% fewer emissions than today and even with net negative emissions (on a cradle-to-gate basis), as in the case of methanol (up to −1.4 kg CO2-eq per kg), mainly due to the contributions of technology development and increasing penetration of renewable energies. Overall, the combined production of these chemicals could be net-zero by 2050 despite their predicted two to fivefold increase in demand. Lastly, we propose a roadmap for progressive implementation by 2050 of green routes in 26 regions worldwide, applying the criterion of at least 80% reduction in climate change impacts when compared to their fossil alternatives. Furthermore, an exploratory prospective techno-economic assessment showed that by 2050, green routes could become more economically attractive. This work offers quantitative arguments to reinforce research, development, and policymaking efforts on green chemical routes reliant on renewable energies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decarbonization policies require public support to be implemented and to remain in legislation. Examinations of public support for climate policies tend to focus on a small number of policy instruments and/or use hypothetical instead of real policy proposals. Here, we address these criticisms by examining public support across four distinct policy instruments – command-and-control, market-based, information-based, and voluntary – using sixteen policy proposals by UK political parties and government institutions. In addition to assessing UK national policy support, we also explore regional differences. Using a representative sample of the UK population (N = 1,911), we find that, at a national level, individuals preferred instruments shown to be less effective in reaching net-zero: information-based and voluntary policies. Our results indicate that the extent to which individuals believe in the free market, their environmental worldviews and political party support as well as their age are all correlated with policy support. We find stark regional differences where, compared to individuals living in Greater London, those living in the remainder of the country were 32% and 30% less likely to support command-and-control and market-based policies, respectively (among other regional differences). Regional variations in free-market beliefs and population density partly explain differences in policy support. We propose policymakers focus on place-based initiatives to increase support for decarbonization policies that are more effective in reaching net-zero and on improving the perception of market-based and command-and-control policies through positive framing and policy bundles. The majority of the UK public supports all climate policy instruments (command-and-control, market-based, information-based, and voluntary) regardless of their stringency. More stringent decarbonization policies (command-and-control and market-based instruments) received less public support compared to more lenient policies (information-based and voluntary). Population density as a structural factor helps to explain regional variation and points to the crucial role of improving public infrastructure, particularly in more rural areas. Free-market beliefs are associated with regional and individual variations in support and stress the need for overcoming ideological barriers. Income was found to influence support for less stringent (e.g. information-based) instruments, but was not associated with support for regulatory and market-based instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For several decades, modal shift within the freight transport sector has been promoted by policy makers as an important basis for achieving lower transport emission targets. Even though the literature on mode choice is well established, there is less consensus about the volume of freight with the potential to shift and, more importantly, the actual contribution of freight modal shift to achieving less climate and air pollution impacts. The climate contribution of freight modal shift can be increasingly questioned, as decarbonization is taking place at increasing rates within road freight transport. In this paper, the role of modal shift policies in realizing climate objectives is scrutinized by focusing on the case of Sweden, which serves to illustrate some general insights. We highlight how modal shift is often analyzed and discussed in isolation, even though it forms an important part of a policy mix in which it may contribute to achieving climate objectives. Treating modal shift as an objective in its own right may render less effective and cost-efficient policy instruments. • The climate contribution of freight modal shift is increasingly questioned. • The role of modal shift policies in realizing climate objectives is scrutinized by focusing on the case of Sweden. • Modal shift is often analyzed and discussed in isolation. • Treating modal shift as an objective in its own right may render policy instruments less effective and cost-efficient, [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the primary contributors to climate change. Addressing and mitigating climate change necessitates the effective management and utilization of renewable energy consumption, which poses a substantial challenge for the forthcoming decades. This study explores the dynamic effects of service value added (SVA) and renewable energy on environmental quality, particularly focusing on CO2 emissions. Unlike previous studies, we employ a non-parametric modeling approach to uncover the time-varying influence of service sector growth on CO2 emissions. Specifically, we apply the local linear dummy variable estimation (LLDVE) method to a panel of the 17 highest-emitting nations over the period 1980–2021. Our study uncovers a non-linear relationship between CO2 emissions and SVA. From 1980 to 2003, we observe a negative correlation. However, starting from 2005 to 2020, we witness a shift towards a positive correlation, indicating a rise in energy consumption within the service sector. The results indicate that significant emitter economies have yet to achieve sustainability, with the service sector continuing to contribute to pollution. Addressing this issue necessitates more robust climate change policies and increased investment in clean energy, specifically targeting the service sector, including buildings and transport. • The dynamic effects of service value added on CO2 emissions are investigated for the 17 highest-emitting nations. • A non-parametric approach known as local linear dummy variable estimation is applied. • The study verified the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve. • A nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions and the service value added is revealed. • Robust climate policies are needed, emphasizing more clean energy investments in services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Against this background, our contribution discusses the effects of this double regulation and provides a clear policy recommendation for the future of EU and German climate policy in the transport and buildings sectors. However, two other groundbreaking climate policy decision in the EU and Germany have passed with much less commotion: the implementation of the German heating and transport fuels emissions trading system (ETS) in 2021 and the 2022 decision of the EU to add a similar ETS to its climate policy instrument mix. In early 2023, far-reaching decisions on climate policy were made in both the EU and Germany. [Extracted from the article]

Background: Sustained elevated concentration of GHGs is predicted to increase global mortality. With the Australian health sector responsible for 7% of the nation's GHG emissions, the benefits and costs of various decarbonisation trajectories are currently being investigated. To assist with this effort, we model the impact earlier decarbonisation has on temperature-related mortality. Design: We used DICE-EMR, an Integrated Assessment Model with an endogenous mortality response, to simulate Australian GHG trajectories and estimate the temperature-related mortality impact of early decarbonisation. We modelled a linear decline of the Australian health sector's and economy's GHG annual emissions to net-zero targets of 2040 and 2050. Main outcome measure: Deaths averted and monetary-equivalent welfare gain. Results: Decarbonisation of the Australian health sector by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 69,000 and 77,000 global temperature-related deaths respectively in a Baseline global emissions scenario. Australian economy decarbonisation by 2050 and 2040 is projected to avert an estimated 988,000 and 1,101,000 global deaths respectively. Assuming a low discount rate and high global emissions trajectory, we estimate a monetary equivalent welfare gain of $151 billion if the Australian health sector decarbonises by 2040, only accounting for the benefits in reducing temperature-related mortality. Conclusions: Earlier decarbonisation has a significant impact on temperature-related mortality. Many uncertainties exist and health impacts other than temperature-related mortality are not captured by this analysis. Nevertheless, such models can help communicate the health risk of climate change and improve climate policy decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most important climate report in the world, conducted by the IPCC, has been diluted by lobbies and governments during its drafting process. The summary for politicians and managers does not reflect the seriousness of the climate crisis or the necessary solutions. Proposals such as drastic emission reductions and the closure of gas and coal plants within a decade have been eliminated. Additionally, other aspects of the report have been softened. Countries like Saudi Arabia have pressured to remove recommendations and tone down the report, eliminating references to the responsibility of the top 10% richest in pollution and mentions of direct emissions from aviation, the automotive industry, and meat consumption. The complete report highlights the need for a revolution in our energy and socio-economic systems, and mentions the concept of "degrowth" as a possible solution. It also warns about the obstacle posed by the Energy Charter Treaty for climate change mitigation policies. [Extracted from the article]

As a leading industrialized block of Member States and a global trendsetter of climate policy and law, the EU has a particular responsibility to rapidly decarbonize. With energy forming 75% of current emissions and decarbonization being driven in part by mass electrification, transitioning the EU's power system from predominantly fossil fuel-based to being principally powered by renewable energy sources (RES) ('the Transition') is a key first step. Particularly on the necessary speed of fossil fuel phase-out, however, the Transition is falling short of 1.5°C compatibility. Here, we advocate for a justice-driven, holistic approach to the Transition, with appreciation for the interconnectivity of the four major pillars of environmental, social, economic, and governance justice. Promoting governance as an integrated justice dimension offers a more robust and comprehensive framework for decision-making across different legislative levels. To demonstrate how this framework could deliver a more effective and equitable Transition, we apply it across sixteen 'Rules', under these four pillars. Each is designed for EU-wide transposition and the implementation by Member States as a means of filling a gap in the EU's legislative framework, including the newly released 'Fit for 55' proposals package. We consider directly and comprehensively the interaction between new rules and existing and proposed EU legislation, the synergies across pillars, the compromises which might be necessitated, and the limitations of our high-level approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of command-and-control target policies for climate governance is crucial in achieving China's "dual carbon" goals. We investigate the impact of multi-target policy on county-level carbon emissions, using the generalized difference-in-differences model for the gradual implementation at different phases of multiple policies. We find that the Carbon Intensity Reduction Target (CIRT) and Total Energy Consumption Target (TECT) policies promote carbon reduction, while the Energy Intensity Reduction Target (EIRT) policy has less reliable outcomes. In the eastern and central regions, the initial phase of carbon reduction is primarily propelled by the EIRT policy, subsequently transitioning to the dominant influence of the CIRT policy. In the later phase, carbon reduction in the eastern region is predominantly attributed to the CIRT policy, whereas in the central region, it results from the combined effects of the EIRT, CIRT, and TECT policies. In the western region, early policies have an insignificant impact on carbon reduction, and the later-phase effects shift from being primarily influenced by the EIRT to being predominantly influenced by the CIRT. Additionally, neglecting the impact of other policies with similar targets during the same period may lead to overestimation of the effects of EIRT and TECT and underestimation of the effect of CIRT. • Command-and-control target policies are crucial for China's "dual carbon" goals. • The effectiveness of climate policies varies by timing and region. • Carbon intensity reduction targets consistently reduce emissions. • Combining multiple policies effectively cuts carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge and the short timeframes over which action is required demand urgent action. This paper is set within the surface transport sector, now the largest sector of emissions with the slowest pace of change in many advanced liberal economies. It focuses on the strategies and actions of local government which is recognised to be a central player in catalysing change. Our evidence is derived from the actions of two UK local areas which claim to be at the forefront of the decarbonisation challenge. The paper focuses on the role of funding and financial mechanisms in addressing the climate crisis. In the face of an established pattern of austerity and hollowing out of local government we explore how deep transformation is being envisaged. We find a recursive set of issues which derive from a dependence on funding from outwith. This dependence means that despite comprehensive overarching strategies and goals the funding available is the core of the strategy. This means that the nature of the funds, such as the requirement for experimentation, innovation or private sector leverage, defines direction. In turn, and to maintain success in attracting funds, there is an emphasis on presenting 'premium spaces of ambition' with little evidence of attention to broader systemic change. This duality is openly recognised. This paper advances a wider point that greater emphasis should be placed on the 'financialisation' of climate policy and the reality rather than the rhetoric of change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role that private actors play in accelerating or preventing progressive climate policy and true decarbonization is a core research interest of global environmental politics. Yet scholars have struggled to measure the political behavior of multinational firms due to lack of transparency about their activities and inconsistency in reporting requirements across jurisdictions. In this research note, we present a new data source—firms' earnings calls—that scholars might use to better understand the political behavior of major multinational polluters. To illustrate the value of earnings calls as a data source, we construct an original data set of all earnings calls made between 2005 and 2019 by major oil and gas firms. We then code these transcripts, demonstrating that although firms can be classified as more or less pro-climate, there is little evidence of the industry's public acceptance of decarbonization. These unique data could permit researchers to explore important questions about climate politics, the evolution of private governance, and the relationship between policy and firms' political behavior. Moreover, we suggest extensions of our approach, including other multinational industries that are amenable to this type of analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's largest fossil fuels exporter, Russia is one of the key countries for addressing global climate change. However, it has never demonstrated any significant ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper applies ideational research methodology to identify the structural differences in economic, political, and social normative contexts between industrialized fossil fuel importing economies and Russia that lead to the fundamental gap in motivations driving decarbonization efforts. Russia is unlikely to replicate the approach to the green transition and climate policy instruments of energy-importing countries. In order to launch decarbonization in Russia, interested stakeholders need to frame climate policies in Russia differently. Specifically, the framing must address the priority of diversification as a means to adapting the national economy to a new green landscape, the combination of diverse channels for decarbonization, the promotion of energy-efficiency, closer attention to climate-related forest projects, and linkage of climate change with other environmental problems. Moreover, considering Russia's emissions as a part of the global economic system and shifting from a simplistic national focus on GHG emissions reduction would help coordinate policies through dialogue between exporters and importers of fossil fuel energy-intensive goods, which is essential for the global movement towards a net-zero future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial policy has begun to move into the center of debates on climate policy. This represents a shift away from climate policy as we know it—as classic environmental policy. Industrial policy and environmental policy differ in their policy goals, policy instruments, and distributional effects, one primarily concerned with economic development, the other with cutting greenhouse gas emissions. This raises questions about policy interactions between industrial and environmental policy in broader climate policy mixes and how these affect global decarbonization. This article identifies complementary and conflictual dynamics between industrial policy and environmental policy in both domestic and international climate politics. It shows how green industrial policy can advance climate goals and cooperation but can also present challenges to deepening climate cooperation and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Developing an understanding of policy interactions is central to leveraging the potential of industrial policy to accelerate global decarbonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India's centrality to global mitigation efforts makes it an important point of inquiry in studies of climate governance. However, we understand little of how climate change has been institutionalized in India's decision-making processes. We capture the emergence and decline of climate institutions over three decades, showing how political conditions have shaped institutional form. The politics of opportunism has animated institutional development. It resolves the tension between India's global leadership ambitions and a deeply entrenched, equity-focused narrative frame that rejects incurring large mitigation costs. Climate institutions have therefore been layered upon existing bodies and processes to create room for the organic, bottom-up growth of policies that meet development objectives while promoting mitigation. While this structure limits polarization around climate action, it also inhibits strategic intent, particularly because strong cross-governmental institutions have been unable to take root. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides an analysis of the origins and effects of UK climate governance. It is centrally concerned with the relationships between politics and climate institutions, both in how political conditions have shaped the emergence of climate governance, and in how the resulting institutions subsequently structure climate politics. The analysis brings out three key themes. First, a focus on the CCA can overlook the enduring importance of the parallel climate governance architecture provided by the European Union. Second, it is important to see UK climate governance within a wider political and institutional context, as these results of this context, especially tensions between ambition and instability, have influenced its evolution. Third, this design, and other aspects of the evolution of UK climate governance framework, have in turn had implications for the strengths and weaknesses of the framework and how it has met key governance challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses an existential threat to our planet – but does it require wholesale reorganization of our political institutions? As diverse contributions to this special issue describe, countries have restructured government agencies or developed new institutions to oversee climate reforms. Yet, few such transformations have occurred in the United States, one of the world's most important cases. Instead, US climate institutions emerged when new mandates and policymaking routines were layered onto existing political institutions. This has had the cumulative effect of creating substantial US climate policymaking capacity in the absence of institutional innovation. When climate proponents have controlled the US presidency, they have mobilized this capacity to center climate change throughout the US executive branch. By contrast, opponents have quickly dismantled climate policy mandates and routines after gaining power. The result has been an unstable variety of climate governance in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a large body of scholarship has analysed the nature and dysfunction of Australian climate policy over the past generation, there has been little examination of how the Australian state has reorganised itself institutionally to create and execute climate policy. Filling this gap, I explore the evolution of federal climate institutions since the early 1990s, describing how they have fared in the midst of Australia's highly polarized political debate around climate, as well as how they have facilitated and constrained Canberra's ability to develop effective climate strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global south countries, including China, have faced a challenging dilemma of reducing carbon emissions while maintaining rapid economic growth. The low-carbon city pilots (LCCPs) policy in China is a demonstration of how state power intervenes and commands national low-carbon development through voluntary policy tools. Our study, based on panel data of 331 cities from 2005 to 2019, evaluates the policy effect of all three batches of LCCPs and presents an analysis of time-varying effects through batch decomposition and synthetic difference-in-difference models. The study found that implementing low-carbon policies can significantly reduce total carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita. However, the reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP is insignificant, and the policy effect varies according to the batches and their characteristics. The reduction effects in the first and second batches, as well as the insignificance or even increasing effects of the third batch, may be due to carbon leakage between different batches of LCCPs. Overall, this research provides novel and quantitative evidence on low-carbon development in China, making theoretical and empirical contributions to the field, and expanding econometric assessment methods to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental and climate change policies. [Display omitted] • The overall and heterogeneous effect of three batches LCCPs in China was assessed. • LCCP could reduced carbon emissions by 6.5% and emissions per capita by 7.3%. • The reduction effect on carbon intensity is insignificant. • The third batch of LCCPs significantly increased emissions by 2.31 million tons. • The impact of LCCPs varies maybe due to industrial transition and carbon leakage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a CIB analysis and a CGE model to develop decarbonization scenarios for the European power market. Our CIB analysis reveals qualitative scenarios that differ in the level of political (stringency of climate policy) and physical collaboration (transmission grid expansion). The CGE model quantifies those scenarios for further usage in the power market model EUREGEN to analyze related distributional effects across heterogeneous countries as well as between consumers and producers. EUREGEN predicts that consumers experience considerably higher electricity prices in the future in all scenarios, whereas producers observe higher rents. Electricity prices are lowest in the least collaborative future. Producer rents in turn are highest in the most collaborative one. Patterns hugely differ by country, making 13 countries to profiteers of the least collaborative future and 12 countries to profiteers of the most collaborative one. Only 3 countries profit from medium collaboration. Countries that profit from the most collaborative future experience substantially higher producer rents. Countries that profit from the least collaborative one in turn experience lowest electricity prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper makes four basic points about movement toward a low carbon economy in Canada: first, that it is important for political leaders, policy analysts, and researchers to approach the issue in terms of a transition to a carbon-emission–free society; second, that in Canada the development of regional pathways to a low-carbon economy is crucial; third, that we need ‘‘green development strategies’’ if we are to maximize the opportunities presented by this transition; and finally, that we should think about low-carbon politics as well as low-carbon economics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ambitious 2050 decarbonization strategy of the European Union (EU) must implement and reconcile several economic, social, and technological targets, such as continuous prosperity, growth, and increases in energy production and reductions in fossil fuel (FOS) intensity. These dimensions are included in a modified Kaya identity that, consequently, becomes a considerably useful accounting identity to analyze convergence among the EU member states toward a carbon neutrality target. Surprisingly, no comprehensive analysis of the convergence of the growth of all Kaya components toward the decarbonization target among the EU countries and the rest of the world has been conducted thus far. This study fills this gap in the literature by providing the first comprehensive evidence for the simultaneous convergence process of FOS reduction for all the Kaya components from 1990 to 2018. A balanced panel data is used in the study. The results reveal that there is evidence of σ -absolute and conditional β -convergence process for several groups of EU countries. Furthermore, to provide policy recommendations, we simulate alternative scenarios to assess when the target levels of decarbonization can be reached, providing relevant policy implications for the credibility of the 2050 EU policy regarding climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper seeks to understand how the UK government's headline climate change targets are translated into action at the local level in the transport sector drawing on the findings of research in two English regions. In doing so, these headline targets are identified as a symbolic meta-policy that results in little action on the ground and which challenges established conceptions of policy implementation. Both the 'meta' and 'symbolic' aspects of the policy offer part of the explanation for the lack of substantive action on the ground. As a meta-policy, the headline targets across government require the elaboration of other policies at other levels such as targets for government departments and local authorities, but these are largely absent, leaving the meta-policy without teeth. Over time, these headline targets have developed into a symbolic policy, serving political goals but having little practical effectiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Responsibility for climate change lies at the heart of societal debate over actions to address it. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change established the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' among nations, suggesting that industrialized nations that had produced the greatest share of historic emissions bore particular responsibility for preventing dangerous interference with the climate system. But climate responsibilities can be attributed in other ways as well. Here, we explore the conceptual territory of responsibility. We consider the distinctive responsibilities of the major investor-owned producers of fossil fuels, assessing the actions these companies took and could have taken to act upon the scientific evidence of climate change. We conclude that major investor-owned fossil energy companies carry significant responsibility for climate change. It is still possible for these companies to effectively contribute to a solution. Significant progress in reducing emissions and limiting climate change could be achieved if companies 1) unequivocally communicate to the public, shareholders, and policymakers the climate risks resulting from continued use of their products, and therefore the need for restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions consistent with the 2 °C global temperature target; 2) firmly reject contrary claims by industry trade associations and lobbying groups; and, 3) accelerate their transition to the production of low-carbon energy. Evidence from history strongly suggests that a heightened societal focus on their climate responsibilities will be needed to hasten such a transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Great interest has been in unilateral climate policies, given present difficulty of establishing stable global coordinated agreements. In this paper, we investigate underlining factors explaining large differences in performances, when the same carbon emission reductions are achieved in different abating countries. To this end, we develop a new multi-country general equilibrium model, incorporating six countries (or world regions), two goods, six production inputs, capital mobility, energy mobility and international trade. Meanwhile, we adopt two performance indicators, with carbon leakage representing environmental efficiency and carbon emission abatement costs revealing cost-effectiveness. Our findings are as follows. Firstly, there are large differences in performances among these unilateral climate policies, as evidenced by large differences in leakage rates and carbon emission abatement costs. Secondly, the new global climate treaties to replace the Kyoto Protocol should be able to induce more carbon emission reductions in countries with low carbon emission reduction costs, since such setting contributes to global cost savings. Finally, developed countries have high carbon emission abatement costs compared with large developing countries (China and India in this paper), implying that there should be trade-off mechanisms between efficiency and equity regarding how to allocate carbon emission reductions among countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accompanying the boom in the global economy, CO 2 emissions have soared over the past several decades, with the developing world exhibiting higher emission growth rates than the developed world. Emissions transfers between regions, which represent a significant fraction of total emissions, are assumed to be a primary factor contributing to this difference. It is important to understand these transfer figures and the resulting consumption-based emissions in order to evaluate the emissions drivers and establish climate policies. Existing studies, however, have merely estimated figures over a 20 years span (post-1990) using a traditional input–output analysis (IOA) framework. To broaden the data coverage (to pre-1990) of these transfer figures and to further analyze their impacts on total emissions in the long term, a new model called the Long-term Consumption-based Accounting model (LCBA), which is directly based on statistics, is developed to span the period from 1948 to 2011. The results are consistent with the magnitudes and trends of existing studies over the validation (post-1990) period. We use Monte Carlo methods to calculate upper and lower bounds on the LCBA for each country and year, and find that 3 existing time series are almost fully included within these boundaries from 1990. Furthermore, the LCBA model is succinct enough to be easily expanded for future GHG estimations or to analyze other ecological footprints related to “the flow of materials”. It can be assumed that the soaring emissions transfers will seriously jeopardize the current climate policies such as Kyoto Protocol. The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) under which all parties are legally bound will require a consumption-based accounting method together with the territorial one in order to achieve an equitable agreement. However, more researches are still needed to facilitate the use of these figures to better support decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why have only two of the eleven original members of the Western Climate Initiative implemented a cap-and-trade system? This article compares the implementation of cap-and-trade in California and Quebec versus in New Mexico and British Columbia. Ideas around the reality of anthropogenic global warming and the legitimacy of cap-and-trade created favorable context in three jurisdictions, although institutions condition the expression of these ideas in the policy-making process. Since parliamentary institutions concentrate power, elite consensus is more important in Canada, while in the United States public opinion plays a more significant role. However, ideational factors shaped by political institutions do not explain differences in cap-and-trade implementation. Growth in shale gas production, welcomed in British Columbia and New Mexico but resisted by Quebec and marginal in California, further explain different outcomes. Ideas, mediated by institutions, are the necessary prerequisites for action, while material factors influence policy instrument choice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article theorizes about the implications for domestic climate politics of three distinct roles countries play in the global carbon supply chain: fossil fuel producer, manufacturer of carbon-intensive goods, and final consumer. Because international responsibility is assigned to territorial emissions, countries at either end of the global supply chain effectively evade environmental responsibility by shifting fossil fuel combustion to manufacturing countries. In so doing, they lessen the political challenges of reducing domestic emissions. Although exporters of carbon-intensive goods are reluctant to disadvantage local producers, importers can craft policies that both reduce territorial emissions and create local jobs. Ironically, fossil fuel exporters can emerge as leaders in reducing their own territorial emissions, a finding illustrated by case studies of British Columbia and Norway. The conclusion argues that shifting responsibility for carbon emissions to the point of either final consumption or fossil fuel extraction could facilitate an international climate agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key dimension of the debate about policy innovation is the extent to which new policies achieve significant and lasting effects on the problems they purport to address. However, little is known about such effects. We break new ground by investigating how far current evaluation practices in a policy system with relatively ambitious climate policies – the European Union – identify the most effective (carbon-reducing) policies. We find that a small number of policy instruments are projected to deliver the lion’s share of emission reductions. Setting aside the special case of emissions trading, these instruments are not particularly innovative. If significant practical and political obstacles can be addressed, more (detailed) evaluations could enhance the evidence base and also the political prospects for delivering deeper emissions cuts through to 2050. An evaluation perspective could also offer a very different way to consider policy innovation dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Academics and practitioners have responded to the gridlock in the international climate-change regime by more actively exploring the ability of individuals and/or groups of states to fill in the associated ‘governance gaps’ by engaging in policy innovation at the level of the nation state, including its regional and local emanations. Here, we draw together the findings of a collection that, for the first time, explores policy innovation at this level from three key perspectives: the source of new policy elements (‘invention’), their wider entry into use (‘diffusion’), and their projected and/or real effects (‘evaluation’). After critically reviewing the findings of the contributions from these perspectives, we explore new directions for definitional, conceptual-theoretical, and empirical work in this field. Finally, we explore how a more systematic analysis of policy innovation dynamics can inform a much fuller understanding of climate policy and governance across different sites and scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine whether innovations in policy concerning climate-change mitigation are symbolic or truly radical in the sense of ‘tipping’ existing policy portfolios towards a new instrumental logic, we study policy innovations in the context of pre-existing policy portfolios and analyse the associated dynamics over time. Our analysis is facilitated by a new measurement of policy output, the Index of Climate Policy Activity. This new approach sheds light on the relative importance of policy innovations in complex policy portfolios, and serves as a blueprint for further analyses of the politics of policy innovation. Empirically, we analyse policy innovations within the policy portfolios of energy production in Austria, Germany, and the UK between 1998 and 2010. We find high stability in the instrumental logic but substantial change in policy settings and calibrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seeking to develop a novel understanding of how climate policy innovation (CPI) emerges and spreads, we conceptualise three types of CPIs – genuinely original, diffusion based, and reframing based – and relate these to the sociotechnical transitions literature, particularly the multi-level perspective (MLP) that explains change through interaction between ‘niche’, ‘regime’, and ‘landscape’ levels. Selected climate-related transport policies in Finland, Sweden, and the UK are used to illustrate five hypotheses that connect these concepts from the MLP to particular types of CPI. ‘Original’ policy innovation may be uncommon in contexts with major sunk investments such as transport, principally because sociotechnical regimes tend to be resistant to political pressures for change originating at the same level. Nonetheless, the MLP posits that regimes are subject to influence by pressures originating at both niche and landscape levels. Given that policy reframing is relatively common, it may offer a key entry point for CPI in the short to medium term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The governance of climate change is in flux. In the understandable rush to explore what is filling the governance gaps created by gridlock in the international regime, scholars risk under-appreciating the capacity of states to engage in policy innovation at national and sub-national levels. Based on a review of existing concepts and theoretical explanations for (in)action at this level, we make the case for adopting a more holistic approach to understanding policy innovation, covering the source of new policy elements (‘invention’), their wider entry into use (‘diffusion’), and their projected and/or real effects (‘evaluation’). The analytical and methodological challenges that arise from integrating these three perspectives are systematically explored and integrated into a new analytical framework used in the other contributions to this volume to explore more fully the politics of invention, diffusion, and evaluation in specific areas of mitigation and adaptation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We integrate carbon satellite observations into CO 2 compliance monitoring. • We screen CO 2 mitigation goals' statuses in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020). • With 2015 as the baseline year, the national goal should have been attained by 2019. • Most municipalities and provinces had attained their individualized goals by 2019. • China's absolute CO 2 emissions might have been reduced by 8.0–18.3% by 2019. Good-quality emission data are essential to validate national climate commitments and implement domestic policies. However, conventional bottom-up data collection is costly and subject to potential manipulation by stakeholders when data pass through their hands, which could pose challenges on the efficiency and effectiveness of compliance monitoring especially in developing countries. Satellite observations, specifically OCO-2 XCO 2 measurements, are utilized in this study to develop a relatively independent and timely dataset for screening the attainment statuses of national and subnational CO 2 mitigation goals in China's 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2016–2020). We establish CO 2 emission estimation models at both pixel and provincial levels. As interpolated with the pixel-level model, CO 2 emissions of prefecture-level municipalities indicate that approximately three fifth of them had accomplished their individualized FYP mitigation goals by 2019, while our provincial-level estimation suggests that three quarters of provinces had attained theirs. More resources for compliance monitoring could thus be directed to other presumably-unattaining local governments. National aggregate absolute emissions showed 8.0–18.3% reduction in 2019 across three provincial models from the 2015 level, while national CO 2 intensity dropped by 28.8–36.8% to imply attaining the 18% reduction goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current EU energy and climate policy targets a significant reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the forthcoming years. Carbon pricing, embedded in the EU emissions trading system, aims at achieving emission reductions in a more evenly spread way and at the lowest overall cost for society, compared with other environmental policy tools, such as coal or electricity taxes, or incentives such as subsidies on renewables. Still, the implementation of the decarbonization policy depends on several technical parameters such as the type, size and connectivity of the energy system as well as economic restrictions that occur. Within this paper, an optimization tool will be presented, focusing on cleaner energy production and on the control and reduction of environmental impact regarding energy storage solutions. Various types of batteries are examined and evaluated towards this direction. Emphasis is given to setting new criteria for the decision-making process, considering the size of battery storage and the selection of the battery type based on the environmental impact assessment parameter. The objective function of the system is formulated so as to evaluate, monitor and finally minimize environmental emissions, focusing mainly on carbon emissions. Optimization is carried out based on mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP). Two of the main battery types compared are lead–acid and lithium-ion; both of them result in results worth mentioning regarding the replacement impact (seven times during system lifetime for lead–acid) and the total environmental impact comparison (lithium-ion may reach a 60% reduction compared to lead–acid). Case studies are presented based on representative scenarios solved, which underline the importance of choosing the appropriate scope for each case and demonstrate the potential of the tool developed, as well as the possibilities for its further improvement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Kingdom has declared a climate change policy of 100% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Efforts thus far have been limited solely to electricity generation methods. While progress has been admirable, effort now must be directed at the nation's non-electrical energy use. Nuclear energy is an essential part of any energy future, since it is low-carbon, firm and supplies synchronous electricity; however the nation's nuclear strategy to date has been erratic, costly and lacking in strategic oversight. A multitude of reactor designs are on offer for potential uptake, and decision-makers must have clarity of vision on what these systems must deliver before forming a strategy. Choosing between these systems, given the uncharted energy future faced by the UK is a daunting prospect. Generic feasibility assessment offers a tool for decision-makers to assist them in selecting the most suitable nuclear system for chosen future conditions. Generic feasibility assessment offers an alternative to traditional multi-attribute decision analyses, which can be confusing to even committed stakeholders when large numbers of attributes are weighted and compiled. Generic feasibility assessment forms part of a toolkit which will be of utility in achieving net zero by 2050, given the short time that remains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports on a federal lawsuit by youth against the U.S. government regarding the federal government's lack of action to prevent climate change. Topics include the role of expert witnesses in the case, the attribution of extreme weather events and forest fires to climate change, and the role of carbon dioxide emission reduction as a possible remedy in the case.

The role of fossils fuels in national economies will change radically over the next 40 years under a strong climate regime. However, capturing this changing role through national-based analyses is challenging due to the global nature of fossil fuel demand and resulting trade patterns. This article sets out the limitations of existing national-scale decarbonization analyses in adequately capturing global conditions and explores how the introduction of a global modelling framework could provide vital insights, particularly for those countries that are dependent on fossil fuel exports or imports. The article shows that fossil fuel use will significantly decline by 2050, although gas will have an important transition role. This leaves large fossil fuel exporters exposed, the extent of which is determined by mitigation action in different regions and especially by the pathways adopted by the larger Asian economies. We find that global-scale models provide critical insights that complement the more detailed national analyses and should play a stronger role in informing deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs). They also provide an important basis for exploring key uncertainties around technology uptake, mitigation rates and how this plays out in the demand for fossil fuels. However, use of global models also calls for improved representation of country specifics in global models, which can oversimplify national economic and political realities. Using both model scales provides important insights that are complementary but that can challenge the other’s orthodoxy. However, neither can replace the other’s strengths. Policy relevance: In recent years, how global fossil fuel markets will evolve under different climate regimes has been subject to much debate and analysis. This debate includes whether investments in fossil fuel production still make sense or will be exposed in the future to liabilities associated with high carbon prices. This is important for governments who need to develop coherent policy in relation to fossil fuel sectors and their role as drivers of economic growth and in providing for domestic energy needs. This article argues that national analyses need to be fully cognizant of the global-scale transition, which can be informed by using a multi-scale modelling approach. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]