Search

Since its appearance in 2020, Brazil and Mexico have been among the most affected countries in the world by covid-19. Their respective presidents, Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO), have played a leading role in specific policies during the pandemic. Their choices were both singular and counter- intuitive. On the health front, AMLO initially underplayed the seriousness of the situation, and the Brazilian president, Bolsonaro, defended a frankly negationist attitude, with a dramatic balance sheet, without his popularity being seriously affected. On the economic front, they have chosen policies that contradict not only each other but also their own supposed ideological stances. Bolsonaro, who is ranked on the far right, has implemented an emergency transfer program on a scale comparable to those of developed countries and the most massive the country has ever seen. Conversely, AMLO, considered a progressist, provided just a minimum policy package, maintaining his previous electoral program. By adopting a comparative approach and mobilizing a unique and diversified set of data, the objective of this paper is to explore these apparent contradictions. After having established the precise diagnosis of the policies implemented to deal with the crisis and the economic and health situation in the two countries during the 2020-2022 period, we propose an original interpretation grid of the central role played by the two presidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the impact of the feedback relationship that exists between inflation, its uncertainty, and the economic growth of the two main Latin American economies. A Bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model is developed, which also allows the identification of asymmetric impacts on the conditional volatility of the product and inflation, the sample period corresponds to January 1985 to June 2019. Additionally, causality tests are developed to identify the fulfillment of the main hypotheses raised. Among the main findings is the verification of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis for both countries in most of the lags. Regarding the second hypothesis, it is found that the central bank of Mexico has presented a stabilizing behavior, while in the Brazilian case an opportunistic behavior has been identified. In the third hypothesis, no causal relationship of inflationary uncertainty towards economic growth is identified, in the case of Mexico; while, in the case of Brazil, an ambivalent causality has been identified, regarding the number of lags. Finally, in the fourth hypothesis we find results that corroborate, mainly for both economies, a positive effect from inflation on economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]