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The influence of oil proceeds on an economy remains a subject of debate among scholars. Most scholars agree that income from oil has direct effect on economic expansion. We explore the impact of revenue from oil on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2016. Data were collected from the Nigerian Central Bank and the World Data Indicators. We employed a non‐linear autoregressive distributive lag approach to analyse the data. The outcome exposes a direct and significant association between revenue from oil and GDP both in the short and long term. Trade openness exhibits a significant negative effect on GDP from both short‐ and long‐term perspectives. Gross capital formation directly influences GDP in the short and long run, with significant impacts primarily in the long term. The study suggests that revenue from oil has a direct and significant impact on the Nigerian economy during the period from 1981 to 2016. We recommend that the Nigerian government create a conducive environment for private investment to thrive, thereby sustaining the nation's growth potential. Additionally, the government should wisely utilise revenue from oil to revitalise non‐booming productive sectors in the economy, thus diversifying revenue sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article seeks to investigate which demand component led and shaped the growth patterns of the US economy between 1954 and 2020 and comprehensive sub-periods relying on a proper allocation of imports. In doing so, it aims to establish whether the external sector can make a positive contribution to growth even in a context of negative net exports. Finally, it seeks to shed light on the reasons for higher or lower output growth, drawing particular attention to the engines of growth in each historical period. This article takes a novel approach in two ways: (1) it calculates and analyzes the decomposition of the contributions to growth for the US; (2) it divides the analysis into sub-periods and engines of growth, separately analyzing movements in the components of the multiplier, the dynamics of each component’s share with respect to GDP, and their respective growth rates. The empirical results show that the very low growth rates experienced between 2008 and 2020 are mainly explained by a minimal contribution of the government sector accompanied by weak demand from the private sector, highlighting the importance of growth-oriented public policies. These negative results have been only partially compensated by improvements in the external sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on the export-led growth model is significant due to the contribution of exports to the development of domestic sectors and its positive impact on national values, especially employment and growth. Therefore, countries prefer the export-led growth model by increasing their export volumes with an outward-oriented policy. When Türkiye's growth figures are analyzed, it is feasible to say that there is a strong connection between exports and economic growth. In this study, within the framework of export-led growth hypotheses, the additive of exports to Türkiye's growth dynamics between 1980 and 2022 is investigated. The aim of the study is to econometrically test the intercourse between exports and GDP in the Türkiye economy. In the analysis, first linear unit root analyses were implemented. Then, the dynamic correlation relationship between exports and GDP was analyzed with DCCGARCH, and the dynamic regression relationship was performed with the Markov regime switching model. As a consequence of the examines, it was seen that the dynamic correlation indicators and Markov model results were consistent with each other. While it was found that the correlation decreased during the high volatility period, a decrease in the number of regressions was observed according to the Markov model results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the cause-and-effect relationship between the elderly population and global economic growth, focusing on different continents. A panel dataset spanning from 1961 to 2020 is utilized, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serving as the key measure for economic growth, represented as the percentage change in annual GDP. The study specifically centers on individuals aged 65 and above as a percentage of the total population. The analysis employs a Panel Granger causality test to assess the impact of the elderly population on economic growth. The results reveal a unidirectional Granger causality for Africa and Oceania, suggesting a one-way influence from the elderly population to economic growth. Conversely, instances of bidirectional Granger causality are identified for Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, indicating a mutual influence between the elderly population and economic growth during the study period. The study concludes that an endogenous relationship between economic growth and the elderly population emerges, but notably, this relationship becomes apparent only after an economy has completed its transition in economic development. This implies that the dynamics of the elderly population and economic growth are interlinked, with the nature of their interaction becoming more pronounced in the later stages of economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most of the research in the macroeconomic theory points to the fact that the most important economic aggregates at the level of the economy are: the gross domestic product, the level (rate) of unemployment and the inflation rate. The gross domestic product represents the most synthetic indicator of the total economic activities of a country, i.e. of the reached level of its economic development. This paper presents the methods for calculating GDP: the production, income and expenditure method. Also, in the focus of analysis of this paper are the classical models of economic growth, Keynesian models of economic growth, neoclassical models of economic growth and new models of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to analyse the state and the dynamics of developmental and other aspects of investments in research and development (R&D) in the group of countries in Southeast Europe. The analysis is performed for several countries in Southeast Europe together and by individual countries. The period from 1996 to 2020 is observed in the analysis. In most countries of Southeast Europe, the allocation for R&D is relatively small. Applied research is the most represented. Significant differences can be noticed regarding the sources of financing and to the implementation of allocations for R&D. A particularly important part of this work is devoted to the analysis of the impact of the gross expenditures on R&D on economic growth. This analysis was performed on the basis of regression analysis. Several regression models were formed in which the dependent variable was gross domestic product per capita It can be concluded that the parameters of the financial condition of the observed economy have the greatest influence on the economic growth of the observed group of countries. Allocations for research and development still do not have a significant enough impact on economic growth in observed countries in Southeast Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The migration of both unskilled and skilled labour force can alter economic conditions and environmental sustainability of both host and home countries. Consequently, this study endeavors to investigate the impact of skilled labour migration on economic growth, energy demand, and environmental sustainability of both home and host countries. This objective is achieved by constructing a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for developed and developing countries. Moreover, developing countries are classified into four distinct groups based on their income levels such as high income, upper middle income, lower middle‐income and low‐income countries. The outcome of policy simulations indicate that skilled labour migration diminishes the gross domestic product, welfare, energy consumption and carbon emissions in home countries, and the reverse is true for the host countries. The influx of remittances to home counties is shown to bolster their economic growth, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, whereas a contrary trend in remittance outflow is observed in host countries. Likewise, reverse migration has the potential to augment economic growth in developing countries alongside an increase in energy demand and CO2 emissions. The study advocates for developed countries to harness the skills of immigrants in environment‐friendly manufacturing industries. Furthermore, it emphasizes that developing countries should utilise remittances for both socio‐economic and environmental development to retain the migration of skilled labour forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows and economic growth at sectoral levels in Bangladesh, employing a panel study framework. Utilizing sectoral-level panel data spanning six sectors from 2007–08 to 2018–19, the analysis is conducted using Panel Vector Error Correction Model (Panel VECM). Results from panel unit root tests confirm that all variables are integrated of order one I (1), indicating stationarity. The Pedroni panel co-integration test further supports the presence of co-integration among the variables. Notably, the Panel VECM reveals evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship from Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) to Real Foreign Direct Investment (RFDI) across all six sectors of Bangladesh. The findings underscore the significance of formulating pragmatic policies and implementing them effectively to attract FDI across sectors, thereby contributing to the overall economic growth of Bangladesh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study asymptotic model change detection in multivariate linear regression by using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov function of the partial sum process of recursive residuals. We approximate the rejection region and also the power function of the test by establishing a functional central limit theorem for the sequence of the partial sum processes of the recursive residuals of the observations. When the assumed model is true, the limit process is given by the standard multivariate Brownian motion which does not depend on the regression functions. However, when the assumed model is not true (some models change), the limit process is represented by a vector of deterministic trend plus the standard multivariate Brownian motion. The finite sample size rejection region and the power of the test are investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation study shows evidence that the proposed test is consistent in the sense that it attains the power larger than the size of the test when the hypothesis is not true. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed test method to Indonesian economic growth data in which we test the adequacy of three-variate low-order polynomial model. The test result shows that the growth of the Indonesian economy is neither simultaneously constant nor linear. The test has successfully detect the appearance of a change in the model which is mainly caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past four decades, increasing forecast emphasis has come to be placed on the potential importance of different sectors and their contribution to the sustainable growth of the Nigerian economy. A more common strand of research is existing studies that consider the resource curse hypothesis to show empirically, the actual relationship between natural resources and economic growth. However, these studies have looked at various resource endowment especially oil and metals, with just a few focusing on the non-oil export sector. A preliminary graphical study of the contribution of the non-oil sector to Nigeria's GDP shows that over time, the linkage of non-oil export to the economic growth has been low (less than 20%). Hence, this study will analyze the long-run relationship and also the importance of both oil and non-oil exportation and their impact to sustainable economic growth. The model introduced in this article uses the time series data for non-oil export, oil export, alongside other macroeconomic variables on gross domestic product (GDP). In order to adequately investigate the long-run relationship, statistical forecast was adopted to project the data for future years and thereafter econometric method was adopted to validate the projected data and analyze the direction of causality between the sectors (oil and non-oil) export and economic growth. The result reveals the possible short and long run interaction amidst sectors' export and economic growth, based on the different tests conducted, in order to recommend policies aimed at boosting the level and significance of the sectors' export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial processes have changed how economic growth is carried out, yet little research has been done examining how financialization affects the well-established association between economic activity and emissions. We construct fixed effects regression analyses with robust standard errors for 172 nations between 1960 and 2014. In this article, we estimate financial processes' moderation of the association between GDP per capita and CO2 emissions per capita, as well as whether or not such processes reduce the environmental intensity of manufacturing activities. We find that financialization decouples total GDP per capita from emissions per capita but fails to do so for growth from manufacture. Noting the absolute rise in manufacturing activity, we argue that the economic reorganization that financialization represents may obfuscate the ongoing pressure that economic growth places on the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The outcome of economic growth is visualised as the well-being of citizens or human well-being (HWB). However, it has been a great challenge to measure HWB. Though there are known reasons for considering GDP and its growth as a measure of overall development and progress of nations, yet mostly it is being used as a gospel indicator to compare nations and design appropriate policies. This paper is an effort to develop a comprehensive adjusted GDP to measure HWB through secondary data for thirty years (1990–91 to 2019–20) in India. We make thirty-five adjustments to net national income (NNI) to compute the adjusted national income (ANI) index based on the system analysis approach. The empirical findings show that the gap between NNI and ANI has been growing over time, and the ANI index shows an increasing trend. Through the analysis it is suggested that economic growth should be focused only if it improves HWB (full or partial). The paper attempts to make intervention into policy shift for improving HWB vis-à-vis happiness of people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the sources of growth in selected African and East Asian countries, using the growth accounting framework on data from 1960 to 2016. We demonstrate the causal association between labour quantity, total capital service (TKS), total factor productivity (TFP) and economic growth. The lower growth in GDP during the 1980s and 1990s in Africa matches with the slower growth in TKS. The TFP growth does not explain the economic growth difference among countries; it contributed negatively to GDP growth in the two regions until the 2000s. However, in African countries, its positive contribution during the 2000s returned to negative in the 2010s, while Asian countries continued driving a positive contribution up to 28.9% as a result of TFP growth. In all East Asian countries, TKS contributed more than half of their growth in GDP, which makes their growth capital-driven, while African countries' growth in GDP was more dependent on labour quantity growth. In Africa, we discovered bidirectional causality between labour quantity and GDP and between TKS and GDP, as well as unidirectional causality running from GDP to TFP. In East Asia, we found only a one-way causality running from GDP to TKS and to TFP. Policymakers in Africa should adopt policies aimed at increasing capital accumulation and efficient allocation of economic resources in order to sustain growth acceleration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Within a wider framework of institutional factors of economic growth and the relationship between population growth and GDP growth, this article focuses on the population growth and GDP growth per capita for 30 countries in Africa between 1960 and 2020. We provide a comparative analysis of approaches to methodology and results obtained in the impact of population growth on GDP/pc growth discourse. By performing the Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality test, the estimation results show that half of the countries showed no causality and other half of countries showed different levels of significant causality. The most seen causality is the unidirectional causality from GDP growth per capita to population growth. In addition, unidirectional causality is observed from population growth to GDP growth per capita and bidirectional causality. Overall, the results add more evidence into the research of endogenous population growth theory, which implies that there is country-specific environment which determines the causality between these two variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of the main criterion employed by the European Commission for the allocation of the largest portion of Structural Funds, based on the threshold of the 75% of European Union (EU) average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We focus on the 2014–2020 programming period and on EU‐15 regions to analyze if this criterion has penalized some of them, as a consequence of the 2004 EU enlargement, which has represented an exogenous shock in the allocation process, due to the economic backwardness of new member states. Through the application of Synthetic Control Methods and Difference‐in‐Differences estimators at different geographical scales, we show that regions that did not obtain the less developed status in both the programming period 2007–2013 and 2014–2020, but that would have obtained it in the period 2014–2020 without the 2004 EU enlargement, experienced a significantly lower GDP per capita growth between −10.5% and −5.7%. Conversely, territories that in the period 2014–2020 lost the less developed status, previously obtained in the time frame 2007–2013, were not characterized by a significantly lower economic growth, providing some evidence of the effectiveness of the safety net. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study deployed two multivariate linear models in estimating the nexus of economic growth, technological development and in-country utilization of natural gas, using annual time series data on five variables - real gross domestic product per capita (RGDPC), natural gas consumption (NGC), technological development (TECH), trade openness (TOP), and industrialization (IND) - from 1986 to 2019. Using the method of error correction modeling (ECM), it is observed that technological development, gas consumption, trade openness, and industrialization have growth-stimulating effects on economic activities in Nigeria. The study further revealed that technological development, trade openness, and level of industrialization positively influenced natural gas consumption in Nigeria during the period. Based on our findings, we sustain the argument that (i) gas utilization and technological development are strong predictors of economic growth, and (ii) technological development greatly determines the level of natural gas consumption in the economy. We therefore recommend design and implementation of policies that promote research and development so as to ramp up technological innovation and development initiatives towards achievement of planned economic growth. In addition, improvements in technological development and convergence of global economies due to liberalization policies demands commensurate infrastructural expansion of natural gas production to reduce or eliminate possible mismatch between production and consumption of natural gas profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Healthcare, which is a semi-public good in many countries, has a significant tourism potential today. Citizens of the country; Due to many reasons such as economic conditions, quality and delivery of health services, they may go to different countries to receive health care instead of their own country. This situation further highlights the macroeconomic dimension of health expenditures made by states and private entrepreneurs. Although tourism means visitors coming to the country for holiday purposes, visitors coming for health purposes are also considered tourists and contribute to the development of the tourism sector. In this study, the general view of health tourism in Turkey is given, primarily by taking into account the revenues obtained from health tourism and the number of visitors entering the country for health tourism purposes. Afterwards, the impact of visitors coming to Türkiye to receive health services between the first quarter of 2002 and the fourth quarter of 2022 (2002Q1-2022Q4) on gross domestic product (growth) was examined. Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used to measure this effect. The findings revealed that there is no causality relationship from health tourism revenues to economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contends that common representations of the history of the British economy and economic policy in the 'Golden Age' period (circa 1950–73) as a story of 'failure' rely overwhelmingly on one measure, that of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. Drawing on the foundational criticisms of this metric made by Simon Kuznets, it is argued that, for this period of British economic history, shortfalls in measured GDP growth in comparison with other rich countries are a very poor measure of changes in economic well-being in the UK. If we follow this argument and discard the belief that one metric can summarize trends in such well-being, the notion of 'failure' in this period should be set aside in favour of a more nuanced, multidimensional assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the non-linear relationship between oil price shocks and the real business cycle in Ecuador, a dollarized economy where oil exports are the country's main source of foreign exchange. We estimate several autoregressive Markov switching models for the period 2000:01-2020:01 to identify the differentiated impact of nominal oil price shocks on real GDP in expansion and slowdown regimes. We find evidence that oil price shocks have an asymmetric effect on Ecuador's economic growth, with a larger impact during slowdowns. They also affect all components of aggregate demand differently in each regime, with a larger impact on investment during expansions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research deals with the program of the National Initiative for Human Development, a social project aim to improving the standard of living of Moroccans by fighting poverty, combating social exclusion, supporting income-generating activities, caring for women, children and people in difficult situations. The study examines the impact of the National Initiative for Human Development on Moroccan economic growth from 2006 to 2017, which is the period that combines the first and second phases of this program. Literature Reviews that dealt with the relationship between human development and economic growth were also highlighted. Secondary data was used based on World Bank reports in this regard, and the investment budget for the National Initiative for Human Development was based on reports of the National Coordination of the Initiative (Moroccan Ministry of Interior). By error correction model, it was found that there is a long-term positive relationship between investment in the national initiative for human development (INDH) and Moroccan gross domestic product (GDP). The conclusion from this relationship is that strengthening the role of the national initiative, as a tool for economic and social reform will positively affect GDP and the Moroccan economy in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the economic policies adopted by the Indian government under different policy regimes, provides a political economy perspective of economic growth in the country during 1950–2020 and examines the inclusiveness of the rapid economic growth in recent decades. The growth performance of the economy improved as the economy moved from inward-looking policy regime to the regimes of pro-business and pro-market policies. India's political economy was supportive of the changes in policy regime. After growing at a sluggish rate during the first three decades after 1950–1951, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated significantly after the pro-business reforms in the 1980s, and there was further acceleration after the pro-market reforms since 1991–1992. It has, however, slowed down in recent years. Nevertheless, it has not been inclusive, as the benefits of growth have not reached all sections of the population and all regions of the country equally. On the contrary, disparities in income across regions and inequalities in income, wealth and consumption among individuals have exacerbated, and the problems of unemployment and poverty have been persisting in the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global economies are facing geopolitical and ongoing economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, which brings back the topic of growth determinants. This study focuses on the United States, the world's largest economy and a significant recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). For this reason, we analysed whether there is a positive correlation between the volume of FDI inflows and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). A multiple linear regression (MLR) model was used to examine the effects of various exogenous control variables on the quarterly GDP growth in the USA from 1999 to 2022. During these 96 quarters, FDI was found to have a positive effect on GDP growth at statistical significance of 5% (p < 0.05). Specifically, a one-million increase in FDI ceteris paribus caused an estimated GDP growth of approximately 743.43 dollars. The results ultimately propose positive implications for less developed countries that could utilize emphasising their FDI management policies to achieve higher economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the primary policy issues over the years in the context of the Nigerian economy has been how to enhance the performance of the non-oil export sector of the economy in order to diversify the country's export base and contribute more to GDP (gross domestic product). Rather than a lack of policy initiatives, the noticeably abysmal performance of Nigerian non-oil exports has been increasingly attributed to poor policy implementation. However, the question of whether such poor implementation is due to the quality of institutional settings, particularly in a developing economy such as Nigeria, has been largely unexplored. To the best of our knowledge, none of the previous studies deemed it necessary to control for the role of institutional quality in the non-oil export-growth nexus from the perspective of the Nigerian economy. To bridge this important gap in the literature, we hypothesize that institutional qualities matter in the relationship between economic growth and non-oil exports. Motivated by a desire to diversify Nigeria's economy away from its reliance on oil exports, this study re-examines the export-led growth hypothesis from the standpoint of non-oil exports while accounting for the role of institutional qualities. We employ the ARDL estimation technique as the best econometric model for the study given its suitability for variables of mixed order of integration in terms of the series' stationarity. More so, the ARDL technique enables us to simultaneously capture both the short-run and long-run dynamics of the nexus. Empirically, we show results that suggest that improved institutional qualities have the potential to boost the positive effects of non-oil exports on economic growth. We also find that the extent to which institutional quality matters for enhancing the effects of non-oil exports on economic growth depends on the institutional quality indicators chosen. On the whole, we expand on the export-led growth hypothesis by considering the role of institutional characteristics and conclude that improving institutional qualities should be prioritized in the path to Nigerian economic diversification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic costs of tobacco use are substantial particularly in developing countries. While much has been written on healthcare costs from tobacco use related diseases, little is known on the macro-economic impacts of tobacco-related productivity loss. The objective of the current research is to understand the macroeconomic burden of tobacco use in developing countries. Using World Bank's development indicators database for 44 low-and lower-middle-income countries, most of which are African, this paper assesses the relationship between tobacco consumption and economic growth. Specifically, using the fixed effect regression approach, we examined whether tobacco prevalence affects long-run growth rate in the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. We adopted an empirical framework from the growth literature by including the national tobacco prevalence rate as one of the determinants of long-run growth in the real GDP per capita. The tobacco prevalence rate varies across countries ranging from 5% in Ethiopia to almost 50% in Myanmar. The prevalence rate is much higher among males than females in almost all countries, with Myanmar males having above 70%. The regression results indicate the existence of a statistically significant negative relationship between the prevalence of tobacco and economic growth after controlling for other determinants of growth, including the initial level of GDP per capita, gross fixed capital formation, trade, resource revenues, institutional quality, a human capital indicator, and infrastructure capacity. A 1% increase in the total tobacco prevalence rate reduces the economic growth rate by almost 2%, all else equal. These findings are robust even after running separate models for male and female tobacco prevalence rates. The results on the other determinants of growth are consistent with the previous empirical studies on economic growth in the context of developing countries. The findings of this study provide additional support to the existing body of empirical economic research on the role of better health, as a form of human capital, in increasing economic output. Thus, actively targeting tobacco control interventions, both in and outside of the workplace, can likely improve workers' productivity and hence economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the convergence of economic growth and socioeconomic development in the Legal Amazon region. For this, the methodology of Convergence Means was used. To measure economic growth, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the Gross Value Added (VAB) per capita referring to the three sectors of the economy were used as variables. Regarding socioeconomic development, the Firjan Index of Municipal Development (IFDM) was used as variables for the dimensions: General, Health, Employment and Income and Education. The results showed that the variables related to economic growth, presented themselves as convergent and showed a great growth in the period. In relation to variables related to socioeconomic development, the level of convergence was significant, with exception of the variable employment and income, which proved to be divergent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rapidly growing body of research suggests that modern economies find themselves at existential crossroads: both prosperity and survival are a function of consumption-fueled economic growth. Prosperity seemingly depends on it; survival is made increasingly impossible by it. Economists measure economic growth by what is generally recognized as a deeply flawed yet still hegemonic economic performance indicator—GDP. This paper suggests that growth based in increased consumption is in need of reconceptualization no matter what the measure, and invites the research community of the Journal of Consumer Culture to investigate what such a research agenda might look like. Economic logic itself, this essay argues, needs to be re-embedded in science, rather than operate as a self-referential logic outside of natural boundaries. Biophysical limits force us to question economic growth as a goal. A wide range of social pathologies, furthermore, from inequality to stress to loneliness, raise deep questions about the desirability of growth. The essay is a self-conscious provocation to the discipline of economics: there is an emerging need to move beyond a conceptualization of the economy as a self-contained system of monetary market exchanges defining the relations between production, distribution, and consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. Methods and findings: We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. Conclusions: Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Most individuals who develop tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and the resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems, but new TB vaccine candidates may reduce this burden. Earlier studies have estimated the impact of individual diseases and health risks on rates of economic growth, but the potential gains to economic growth that could be produced by introducing novel TB vaccines have not been previously estimated. What did the researchers do and find?: In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs, using a macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We compared scenarios for introduction of infant and adolescent/adult vaccine candidates to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. Compared to the no-new-vaccine counterfactual, both vaccination scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction and concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence. What do these findings mean?: This study demonstrates that introducing new TB vaccines could increase economic growth in LMICs. The results of this research could inform decision-making around how new TB vaccines are developed and introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is also a growing body of literature on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, but many of these studies need to include the import variable. This study examines the state of trade in goods between Bulgaria and the world for 2018-2022 and investigates the cointegration between both export/import and economic growth of Bulgaria through employing yearly data for 1990-2022. The Engle-Granger's cointegrating test was used to study the long-term relationship between variables. The results show a positive and significant long-term relationship between Bulgarian exports and imports and gross domestic product at a 99% confidence level. This leads us to two conclusions: first, Bulgarian exports are more variable over time than Bulgarian imports, and second, the development of Bulgarian foreign trade will positively affect its economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population in 15 European countries. The economy was measured by the Per Capita Gross Domestic Product growth rate, while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. The data were obtained from a time series dataset published by the World Bank for six decades from 1961 to 2021. The Granger causality test was employed in the study to analyse the impact between the economy and the elderly population. An alternate approach, wavelet coherence, was used to demonstrate the changes to the relationship between the two variables in Europe over the 60 years. The findings from the Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional Granger causality from the economy to the elderly population for Luxembourg, Austria, Denmark, Spain, and Sweden, while vice versa for Greece and the United Kingdom. Furthermore, for Belgium, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Turkey, Granger causality does not exist between the said variables. Moreover, wavelet coherence analysis depicts that for Europe, the elderly population negatively affected the economic growth in the 1960s, and vice versa in the 1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the systemic relationship between triple helix innovation systems and the gross domestic product per capita growth (GDPPC) in terms of sustainable competitiveness in Africa. To do this, the Generalized Moment Method on the panel vector autoregressive model is used to estimate helix models' (triple helix, quadruple helix, quintuple helix, as well as the open quintuple helix, relative to external contributions) effects on GDPPC between 2007 and 2019 in 27 African countries, and causality tests completion as well. The results show 3 coevolution relationships resulting from the narrow innovation system, which is made up of the burden of government regulations, companies' expenditures on research and development (R&D) as well as the quality of scientific research institutions. The system expansion (the broad innovation system) with the degree of consumer orientation and natural resource rents generate both 7 (respectively 3 and 4) coevolution relationships. Finally, the opening of the innovation system by considering the business impact of rules on foreign direct investment (BIFDI) alone, generates 5 coevolution relationships. So, in terms of overall sustainable competitiveness strategies in Africa, countries must focus on innovation system opening and natural resources exploitation to increase their GDPPC. Thus, this study fills the gap of a deficit in technological policy orientation on the relationships between innovation systems and sustainable competitiveness through economic growth in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the growing literature on the causal association between electricity supply and economic growth, little is known about the causal linkage between electricity transmission and distributional losses and economic growth, particularly in Ghana. The paper studies the causal association between electricity transmission, distributional losses and economic growth in Ghana. Further, we interacted ETDL with electricity price to examine their combined impact on Ghana's gross domestic product. We utilised time series data from the period 1971 to 2014. Given that our data span is relatively shorter, we utilised the Toda and Yamamoto and Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) methods. This is so because these time series approaches can produce efficient, reliable and eliminate spurious regression estimates even if the sample size is relatively short. Our ARDL estimates suggest that ETDL exert an adverse impact on economic growth while the Toda and Yamamoto estimates suggest that economic growth has a strong influence on ETDL and not the other way round, supporting the growth‐led energy hypothesis. Also, the interactive effect of ETDL and electricity prices on economic growth was negative and statistically significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the implementation of the UN's System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA 2008), an unusual impact of wars on economic growth emerged. The SNA 2008 enables nations to include the depreciation of military hardware in their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations. Economic growth can be furthered not only by making extensive military investments in force modernization but donations of weapons and ammunition can also be factored into a nation's national accounts. This research note presents how the SNA has affected the Czech Republic, a member of both the EU and NATO, which is a small-sized country that since 2022 has donated an extraordinary volume of second-hand hardware to Ukraine, which has contributed to the economic growth of Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction industry in many developing countries is considered the main engine for economic growth. Quantification of the resilience of the construction industry in developing economies is essential for stakeholders and decision makers. Many researchers have attempted to quantify the construction industry's resilience in the context of developed economies; however, there is lack of established measures of such quantification in developing countries. This paper proposes a framework for the composition of an index that quantifies the resilience of the construction industry in developing countries. The proposed framework is demonstrated in the context of three developing countries: Rwanda, Egypt, and Turkey. The index is composed of measures such as the construction value added to a country's gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in construction. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized for weighting and aggregation of the individual variables. Studying the causal relationship between construction growth and economic development from 1971 to 2022, results show that construction growth leads to economic development in each of the three countries. Results of the proposed index values indicate that the construction industry in each of the three countries demonstrated increased resilience by sustaining both its outputs and its employment generation aspect in the two years following the coronavirus pandemic in 2019. Quantification of the construction industry's resilience in countries where the construction growth leads to the economic growth would provide a crucial insight for stakeholders and decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Banks' profitability is vital component of economic growth, its significance extends from' sustainability of banks to macroeconomic stabilization. Thus, this study assessed the effect of banks' specific factors and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of microfinance banks (MFBs) in Nigeria from 2012-2021. The purposive sampling technique was employed to select 15 licensed MFBs from the South West region of Nigeria. This study employed return on assets (ROA) as an indicator of profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we investigate the effect of different energy variables on economic growth of several oil-importing EU member states. Three periods from 2000 to 2020 were investigated. Three different types of regression models were constructed via the gretl software. Namely, the OLS, FE, and SE approaches to panel data analysis were investigated. The FE approach was chosen as the final one. The results suggest the importance of the consumption of both oil and renewable energy on economic growth. Crises of certain periods also had a noteworthy effect as well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of countries' growth causes the depletion of natural resources, biodiversity degradation, ecological imbalances, damage, and disasters. The aggravation of ecological issues requires the development of mechanisms for simultaneous achievement of economic, social, and ecological goals. The energy sector is the core direction of economic decarbonization. Therefore, green economic growth requires economic development due to the extension of innovative technologies for renewable energies and relevant investment for that. The study aims to test the hypothesis on the impact of green field investment on green economic growth. The object of the research was countries in the European Union (EU) for 2006–2020. This study applied the Malmquist-Luenberger Global Productivity Index to estimate green economic growth. It considers the resources available for the production process in the country (labor, capital, energy), the desired outcome (gross domestic product) and undesirable results (emissions to the environment) of this process. The study applied the Tobit model to test the hypothesis. The findings confirm the spatial heterogeneity of green economic growth among the EU countries. The asymmetry in technological efficiency and progress limits the efficacy of green innovations. At the same time, the obtained data confirm the research hypothesis. It is shown that along with green investments, economic openness and the efficiency of public governance have a positive effect on the green economic growth of countries. The findings highlight the importance of attracting green investments to increase green innovations in renewable energy, which boost green economic growth. This study explored the linear and direct effects of green investment on the green economic growth while eliminating the transmission impact of other mediating factors. It should be noted that further research should analyze the nonlinear impact of green investment on the green economic growth and the mediating effect, which could be caused by other variables (corruption, governance efficiency, green innovations, etc.). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The threshold of external debt service toward economic growth is a continuously debatable topic among researchers globally. The issue is widely debated, particularly in highly indebted developing countries such as Nigeria. This paper investigates the impact of external debt service on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1985 to 2021. Using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation technique, the result indicates that debt service hampers the growth of the Nigerian economy. This implies that the external debt service burden drains the country's income, which should have been channeled to increase future production. The finding also shows that the stock of external debt promotes economic growth. It is hereby recommended that proper management of the external debt stocks by governments in more productive sectors could bring further growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decades, and since the first development plan in 1970, Saudi Arabia has controlled the stability of its economy through prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy. This study examines the impact of monetary volatility on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in an oil-based economy from 1970 to 2018, using the Hodrick--Prescott filtering approach. Although standard methods such as GARCH are used to test volatility, the uniqueness of this study is that it tests the volatility of monetary policy using ordinary least squares (OLS), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and IRF methods. We find that the standard deviation of the broad money supply and the real interest rate business cycle tends to have a negative impact on real growth in the short and long run, supporting the proposition that a high interest rate negatively affects real growth. We also document that the standard deviation of the real exchange rate business cycle has a positive (negative) effect on real growth in the short and long run and is not statistically significant. This suggests that the volatility of the real exchange rate does not affect real growth. Moreover, the magnitude of the volatility of the coefficients is lower in the long run than in the short run. To achieve sustainable economic growth, policy makers need to plan how to manage the volatility of the money supply and the interest rate in the short run and develop long- run strategies to manage volatility in the long run. To control monetary volatility, policymakers should also control government spending by dampening the volatility of oil prices, which ultimately affect the money supply and thus stable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modeling of the economic data, which are made available by the World Bank, we predict the maximum values of the growth of GDP and trade, as well as the duration over which exponential growth can be sustained. We set up the correlated growth of GDP and trade as the phase solutions of an autonomous second-order dynamical system. GDP and trade are related to each other by a power law, whose exponent seems to differentiate the six national economies into two types. Under conducive conditions for economic growth, our conclusions have general validity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Africa is a country that is open to trade, and this makes the study significant as economic institutions work better in such countries. The underperformance of South Africa's economy stems from the difficulties in achieving institutional change where state-owned companies such as Sasol benefit the most in the oil, gas and chemical industries. This is because SoEs are the main suppliers of natural gas sourced from Mozambique. This implies that Sasol's customers are the price takers, meaning that whatever the price of gas set by Sasol, it will be difficult for Sasol's customers to oppose it since there is no competition within the market. Entrepreneurs in developing countries with poor economic institutions struggle to grow their businesses due to property insecurity, barriers to market entry, and biased contract offering. The study employed the ARDL to determine the long-run relationship between economic institutions and economic growth, whilst the pairwise Granger causality test was used to determine the direction of the established cointegration. The study used annual time series data for the variables included in the model sourced from World Development Indicators (WDI), the global economy, and Transparency International for the period 1995 to 2020. The estimated ARDL model included the following variables; Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC), Property Rights Index (PRI), Corruption Perception Index (CPI), Government Expenditure Per Capita (GOVEXPP), and Trade openness (TO). The study's findings indicate that PRI as a proxy of economic institutions promotes economic growth in South Africa. The results further show that all other variables also promote growth except CPI. The pairwise Granger Causality test indicates that there is a direct causality between economic institutions and economic growth. The economic policy implication in this regard is that South Africa's government should invest the majority of its public expenditure on human capital to improve the skills of unemployed youth, potentially increasing their employability. Consequently, better economic institutions could be implemented or created. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to investigate the relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and energy consumption on the economic growth of countries in the world based on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We use a large volume of data related to CO2 emissions per capita and energy consumption per capita of each country in the world, so a clustering process is needed using the K-Means method, which divides the country into three cluster labels: high, medium, and low. Then, we performed multiple linear regression using the Generalized Least Square with Autoregressive (GLSAR) method for data that did not satisfy the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) criteria. The results are that countries included in the high cluster have a closer relationship between CO2 emissions and energy consumption to GDP than the medium cluster. Likewise, for the medium cluster against the low cluster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In terms of structure, state and evolution of the economy in the last decades, Romania and Bulgaria have common characteristics, being similar also, from the development perspectives point of view, with goals and projections that are intertwined. This study aims, on the one hand, to capture the economic situation as a whole, at the level of the two countries, and on the other hand to identify the best ideas, but also viable measures, which lead to the achievement of the set objectives, in the next period. At the same time, based on V A R - Vector Autoregression Model analysis, a correlation report is analyzed, which identifies three of the most important macroeconomic indicators, in the current economic environment, namely: public debt, gross domestic product, respectively investments. The reference period considered is between the years 2009 - 2021, with a quarterly frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The past decade has seen an increase in renewable energy sources in the energy mix due to global environmental and supply security concerns. This paper aimed to investigate renewable energy effects on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). The investigation is from 1988 to 2018, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL), and fully modified OLS (FMOL) techniques. Based on empirical analyses of ARDL and FMOLS, it was found that both renewable and nonrenewable energies have a positive impact on economic growth in the Southern African power pool. However, the NARDL estimation indicates that neither renewable nor nonrenewable energy has a significant effect on economic growth in Southern African power pool. Therefore, based on the findings from both ARDL and FMOLS, the growth hypothesis is supported regarding the connection between renewable energy and economic growth in the Southern Africa power pool. Centered on the results, some policy implications were drawn for SAPP for sustainable economic growth, which includes measures to increase renewable energy in the energy mix, and also to encourage the optimization of cross-border connections where energy production from countries within SAPP that are not restricted by natural resources can be relied on to export sustainable energy. Additionally, building a more sustainable integrated power system in the region will assist SAPP with sustainable energy access and reduce the dependence on nonrenewable energy within the interconnected countries soon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper adopts different optimization algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm (PSO-Algorithm) to train Back-Propagation (BP) neural networks, fits the Chinese, the Czech, Slovak, Hungarian, and Polish gross domestic product (GDP) growth model (from 1995 to 2020) and makes short-term simulation predictions. We use the PSO-Algorithm and GA with strong global search ability to optimize the weights and thresholds of the network, combine them with the BP neural network, and apply the resulting Particle Swarm Optimization Back-Propagation (PSO-BP) combined model or Genetic-Algorithm Back-Propagation (GA-BP) combined model to allow the network to achieve fast convergence. Besides, we also compare the above two hybrid models with standard multivariate regression model and BP neural network with different initialization methods like normal uniform and Xavier for fitting and short-term simulation predictions. Finally, we obtain the excellent results that all the above models have achieved a good fitting effect and PSO-BP combined model on the whole has a smaller error than others in predicting GDP values. Through the technology of PSO-BP and GA-BP, we have a clearer understanding of the five countries gross domestic product growth trends, which is conducive to the government to make reasonable decisions on the economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between economic growth and Colombian financial portfolio quality institutions during the second decade of the 21st century for forecasting purposes, by means of an econometric error correction model using quarterly information for the period between 2011-I and 2020-III, both of gross domestic product and of the gross and past-due portfolio of financial institutions. The estimation of the model was executed using the econometric program Eviews 10 with the intervention of two variables. The first one consists of the seasonally natural logarithm adjusted gross domestic product [LPIBD] and the second corresponds to the portfolio quality indicator defined as the ratio of the past-due portfolio to the gross portfolio [INCALID]. The results reveal that the variables are integrated of order 1 and are co-integrated, making it possible to estimate the model with three lags, which added to the unidirectional causality in the Granger sense, allowed predicting the portfolio quality of financial institutions for the fourth quarter of 2020 and establishing the short- and long-term dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]