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Introduction Biofortification is the breeding of new varieties of staple foods for increased micronutrient content. It is seen primarily as a complementary, rural-targeted strategy for better reaching remote populations. This paper presents an ex ante analysis of HarvestPlus’ provitamin A maize (PVAM) in Zambia and highlights an empirical approach based on the Zambian 2005/06 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS). Because more than 115 countries regularly conduct a Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES), the approach developed in this LCMS-based study can be applied in many other countries to analyze varietal adoption and conduct ex ante studies. Methods Data from the LCMS and health statistics were used to characterize baseline indicators of vitamin A intake and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) lost. The introduction and scaling up of PVAM was modeled based on program plans, expert opinion and data on key adoption parameters. An adoption function was specified and expressed in terms of the percent of farmers expected to adopt PVAM over the next 30 years. A logistic regression adoption function was estimated and used to identify the specific LCMS households adopting, producing and consuming PVAM each year. Information from the IFPRI International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) of yearly maize production and demand were used to produce annual estimates of PVAM planted, harvested and consumed. Taking into account an LCMS-empirically-informed, specified market structure, individuals’ additional vitamin A intake was calculated. The number of DALYs saved were estimated using the change in vitamin A intake. Combining these estimates with cost data, the cost-effectiveness of PVAM was calculated. Results Assuming an adoption ceiling of 20% over 30 years, implementation of PVAM will result in average additional intake of 12% of the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR), a 3 percentage point reduction in the prevalence of inadequate intake, and savings of 23% of total DALYs. Impacts are concentrated among farming households that have adopted PVAM and consume it from their own production. Their consumption will result in an average additional vitamin A intake of 172 μg/day, more than 3 times the additional 54 μg/day among the entire population. Among this group, the reduction in the prevalence of inadequate intake will be more than 5 times the national average (17.5 percentage points). Valuing a DALY at $1000, PVAM’s cumulative value of DALYs saved comes to exceed its cumulative total costs starting in 2019. Over 30 years the cost-effectiveness of PVAM in Zambia was estimated to be $24 per DALY saved, making it very cost-effective. Conclusion The methodologies employed in this study provide insights and inputs that can be used to target farmers who are most likely to adopt, to measure their vitamin A intake and to craft messages to promote adoption. PVAM is a long term investment that shows great promise in becoming a highly cost-effective addition to the public health arsenal for combatting micronutrient deficiencies if the 20% adoption rate can be achieved and maintained. Doing so will require effective marketing strategies, including efforts to couple this nutrition-sensitive intervention with nutrition-specific activities, such as targeted nutrition messaging and education, in order to increase the likelihood that adopting farmers will prioritize production for home consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Calcium intake remains inadequate in many low‐ and middle‐income countries, especially in Africa and South Asia, where average intakes can be below 400 mg/day. Given the vital role of calcium in bone health, metabolism, and cell signaling, countries with low calcium intake may want to consider food‐based approaches to improve calcium consumption and bioavailability within their population. This is especially true for those with low calcium intake who would benefit the most, including pregnant women (by reducing the risk of preeclampsia) and children (by reducing calcium‐deficiency rickets). Specifically, some animal‐source foods that are naturally high in bioavailable calcium and plant foods that can contribute to calcium intake could be promoted either through policies or educational materials. Some food processing techniques can improve the calcium content in food or increase calcium bioavailability. Staple‐food fortification with calcium can also be a cost‐effective method to increase intake with minimal behavior change required. Lastly, biofortification is currently being investigated to improve calcium content, either through genetic screening and breeding of high‐calcium varieties or through the application of calcium‐rich fertilizers. These mechanisms can be used alone or in combination based on the local context to improve calcium intake within a population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biofortification is the process of increasing the density of vitamins and minerals in a crop through plant breeding-using either conventional methods or genetic engineering-or through agronomic practices. Over the past 15 years, conventional breeding efforts have resulted in the development of varieties of several staple food crops with significant levels of the three micronutrients most limiting in diets: zinc, iron, and vitamin A. More than 15 million people in developing countries now grow and consume biofortified crops. Evidence from nutrition research shows that biofortified varieties provide considerable amounts of bioavailable micronutrients, and consumption of these varieties can improve micronutrient deficiency status among target populations. Farmer adoption and consumer acceptance research shows that farmers and consumers like the various production and consumption characteristics of biofortified varieties, as much as (if not more than) popular conventional varieties, even in the absence of nutritional information. Further development and delivery of these micronutrient-rich varieties can potentially reduce hidden hunger, especially in rural populations whose diets rely on staple food crops. Future work includes strengthening the supply of and the demand for biofortified staple food crops and facilitating targeted investment to those crop-country combinations that have the highest potential nutritional impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]