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Many studies have analysed the environmental impact of vegan, vegetarian, or reduced meat diets. To date, literature has not evaluated how diet shifts affect environmental impacts by utilising portfolios which reflect personal nutrition preferences. Further, changing diets could alter the available land for non-food uses. This paper defines novel diet portfolios to outline alternative diet transitions and choices within the population and finds their effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primary energy use, and land use in Germany. The aim of this study is to capture how these diet shifts affect land availability and increase the options for land-based climate change mitigation strategies. To do so, a contextualisation is made to compare the use of freed-up land for afforestation or biomethane production (with and without carbon capture and storage). The investigated diet portfolios lead to a reduction of the investigated impacts (GHG emissions: 7–67%; energy use: 5–46%; land use: 6–64%). Additionally, afforestation of freed-up land from each diet portfolio leads to further emission removals of 4–37%. In comparison, using the land to produce energy crops for biomethane production could lead to 2–23% further CO2-eq emission reductions when replacing fossil methane. If biomethane production is paired with carbon capture and storage, emission abatement is increased to 3–34%. This research indicates various short-term pathways to reduce GHG emissions with portfolio diet shifts. Utilising freed-up land for climate change mitigation strategies could prove essential to meet climate targets, but trade-offs with, e.g. biodiversity and ecosystem services exist and should be considered. • Diet portfolios are used to represent realistic population diets. • Diet portfolios include a mixture of 12 different diets. • GHG emissions decrease by 67% if the population adopts a Vegan diet. • Afforestation removes almost double the emissions compared to biomethane. • BECCS has similar GHG abatement to afforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change. [Display omitted] • Potato yields in Germany will decrease sharply under climate change for RCP8.5. • Irrigation at current levels mitigates about half of the yield losses. • Irrigation potential is limited because it can not buffer high temperatures. • Climate change mitigation and other adaption actions need to complement irrigation. • The effect of elevated CO2 might buffer high yield losses, especially in RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • High C losses from intensive crop rotations in southwest Germany. • C removals via harvest trigger SOC losses. • The recent increase in silage maize cropping threatens SOC stocks. • Growing bioenergy maize for CO 2 mitigation seems questionable. • A re-diversification of crop rotations is needed to protect soil C stocks. Abstract The carbon (C) sequestration potential of croplands has recently become a subject of debate because it may contribute significantly to global climate change mitigation. By contrast, carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from German croplands have continuously increased over the past decades as a result of soil organic carbon (SOC) losses. Contrasting results, however, have been obtained on the C sink or source function of European croplands based on long-term experiments and rather recent eddy covariance (EC) measurements. Over a period of eight years (2010–2017), we measured the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 on six intensively managed cropland sites in two climatically different regions of southwest Germany (Kraichgau (KR) and Swabian Jura (SJ)) using the EC technique. Additionally, we measured aboveground crop biomass at three development stages and estimated management-related C inputs and exports. The inter-annual on-site variability of cumulated annual NEE was large, and neither the region nor the different sites significantly affected NEE budgets. Winter rapeseed showed the lowest CO 2 uptake capacity among the observed crops, and the mean annual NEE in the years with winter rapeseed harvest was significantly lower compared to winter wheat, silage maize and winter barley. On average over 46 site-years, annual NEE showed a distinct CO 2 uptake of −2580 kg CO 2 -C ha−1 yr−1. Considering management-related C fluxes, the resulting net biome productivity (NBP) indicated a C source function of the study sites with mean annual losses of 1190 kg C ha−1 yr−1. Due to high C removals after whole plant harvests, silage maize cropping resulted in significantly higher C losses of 4280 kg C ha−1 yr−1 compared to winter rapeseed, winter wheat and winter barley, with mean annual NBPs of 1430, −188 and −1340 kg C ha−1 yr−1, respectively. Consequently, a higher share of exported C in annual NBP resulted in higher C losses. We conclude that the recently increased importance of silage maize in crop rotations destabilizes SOC stocks, threatening the efforts in enhancing soil C sequestration. This calls for further investigations on the C sequestration potentials of more diverse crop rotations including perennial phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Climate impact analysis of air transport from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of passenger flights from Germany. • Scenario dependent forecast of specific emissions by traffic regions. • Focus on both CO 2 and NO x emissions. • Forecast of climate impact effects for three scenarios up to the year 2100. Transport is considered to be a major contributor to emissions, resulting in a deterioration of local air quality and contributing to global climate change. The present paper focuses on how passenger flights departing from German airports contribute to global climate change. We describe in detail, how traffic forecasts for three scenarios entitled Reference, Free Play and Regulated Shift have been developed and how the resultant emissions have been quantified. Subsequently, we applied a climate model, providing insights into the very long-term climate effects under different assumptions on emissions up to the year 2100. The modelling framework shows that the development of emissions results from complex interactions of demand development and supply decisions, which highly influence the climate impact. With this paper, we show that an integrated, multi-disciplinary analysis can create valuable indicators and advice for transport policy decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]