Search

Power forecast for each renewable power plant (RPP) in the renewable energy clusters is essential. Though existing graph neural networks (GNN)-based models achieve satisfactory prediction performance by capturing dependencies among distinct RPPs, the static graph structure employed in these models ignores crucial lead-lag correlations among RPPs, resulting from the time difference of the air flow at spatially dispersed RPPs. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel dynamic graph structure using multiple temporal granularity groups (TGGs) to characterize the lead-lag correlations among RPPs. A granular-based GNN called GGNet is designed to generate an optimal adjacency matrix for the proposed graph structure. Specifically, a two-dimensional convolutional neural network (2D-CNN) is used to quantify the uncertain lead-lag correlations among RPPs; secondly, a gate mechanism is used to calculate a dynamic adjacency matrix; Finally, a graph attention network (GAT) is used to aggregate the information on RPPs based on the well-learned adjacency matrix. Case studies conducted using real-world datasets, with wind power plants and photovoltaic power plants, show our method outperforms state-of-the-art (SoTA) ones with better performance. Compared with the SoTA models, the RMSE N and MAE N of wind power plants for 1–4 h forecast steps decreased on average by 22.925% and 13.18%, respectively; the RMSE N and MAE N of photovoltaic power plants for 1–4 h forecast steps decreased on average by 48.95% and 18.75%, respectively. The results show that the proposed framework can generate improved performance with accuracy and robustness. • Dynamic graph structure can clarify lead-lag power correlation of renewable plants. • A novel model can quantity the lead-lag power correlation of renewable plants. • Memory cell can make the adjacency matrix among renewable plants learnable. • A graph attention network can improve power forecast accuracy of renewable plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]