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In 2015, The Truth and Reconciliation Report (TRC) was released in Canada, outlining 94 Calls to Action which, include pushing Canadian post-secondary institutions to ethically engage Indigenous communities and knowledge systems. This paper seeks to respond to the TRC by offering a spatial analysis of the differences, broadly conceived, between Indigenous and western ontological structures. We consider these differences in terms of 'circles and lines' through a novice, settler understanding of how Mi'kmaw concepts of etuaptmumk (two-eyed seeing), netukulimk (conservation laws) and m'sɨt No'kmaq (all our relations) can be brought to support decolonial teaching and learning about such important and urgent matters as climate change. A related goal in this paper is pedagogic: we hope our own ambivalent learning here can be used as an example to reflect deeply on how settlers like us might/should/can't work with the ethical, political, and practical challenges of responding to the TRC in our research, involving, and considering Indigenous ways of knowing and being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This collaborative paper explores the interconnections between climate change and the mental health and well‐being of Indigenous women in Western Canada. As the impacts of climate change intensify globally, vulnerable populations, particularly Indigenous communities, face disproportionate and multifaceted challenges. Centering on Indigenous women in Western Canada, this study explores how the climate crisis magnifies Indigenous communities' mental health disparities. Drawing from the Indigenist feminist research approach, the investigation focuses on Indigenous women's lived experiences, perceptions, and land‐based coping strategies amidst climate challenges, while simultaneously addressing the unique social, cultural, and historical factors influencing their mental health vulnerabilities within the context of climate change. The findings shed light on the complex relationships between environmental degradation, ongoing colonial impacts on traditional practices, and the mental well‐being of Indigenous women. Concluding with implications for policy and community‐led interventions, this research contributes to the discourse on the intersectionality of climate change impacts and mental health, particularly focusing on Indigenous women in Western Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Indigenous populations in Canada and the United States (US) have maintained reciprocal relationships with nature, grounded in respect for and stewardship of the environment; however, disconnection from traditional food systems has generated a plethora of physical and mental health challenges for communities. Indigenous food sovereignty including control of lands were found to be factors contributing to these concerns. Therefore, our aim was to conduct a scoping review of the peer-reviewed literature to describe Indigenous disconnection from Indigenous food systems (IFS) in Canada and the US. Methods: Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-SR) and Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines, we searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Sociological Abstracts, and Bibliography of Native North Americans. Data was extracted from 41 studies and a narrative review completed based on study themes. Results: The overarching theme identified in the included studies was the impact of colonization on IFS. Four sub-themes emerged as causes for Indigenous disconnection from traditional food systems, including: climate change; capitalism; legal change; and socio-cultural change. These sub-themes highlight the multiple ways in which colonization has impacted Indigenous food systems in Canada and the US and important areas for transformation. Conclusions: Efforts to reconnect Indigenous knowledge and values systems with future food systems are essential for planetary health and sustainable development. Traditional knowledge sharing must foreground authentic Indigenous inclusion within policymaking. Highlights: • The main theme identified amongst the SR literature was the lasting impacts of colonization on Indigenous food systems in Canada and the US, which is described through four key areas: climate change; capitalism; legal changes; and socio-cultural changes. • Less than 20% of included papers report author positionality, with only 7% of included papers reporting Indigenous authorship, emphasizing an opportunity for more reporting and Indigenous engagement in the future. • Loss of cultural knowledge and practices was highlighted by many articles reviewed. • Revitalisation of IFS must include authentic Indigenous engagement, support Indigenous knowledge frameworks, community sharing networks, education programs and co-management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how politicians respond to the public salience of policy issues when determining which topics to publicly address. Using new data and state-of-the-art methodology, our study provides a fresh perspective on this fundamental question. We focus on a multi-party parliamentary system, specifically the Canadian House of Commons, with a specific emphasis on the issue of climate change. To assess the attention given by political parties to various policy issues, we analyze transcripts from the Question Period spanning from April 2006 to June 2021. To gauge the public's level of concern for these issues, we incorporate data obtained from Google Trends. Employing an instrumental variable estimation strategy, our study causally estimates the extent to which the public salience of climate change influences elite attention. Our findings reveal that the public salience of climate change significantly influences the attention given to this issue by parties, albeit with noticeable partisan variations. Moreover, our research highlights the effectiveness of the Question Period in compelling the government to address challenging or potentially embarrassing issues. Lastly, we uncover evidence suggesting that the Liberal Party of Canada successfully increased the public salience of climate change during its tenure in government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has facilitated the introduction, establishment, and movement of invasive species in northern regions, enabling the colonization of previously unsuitable areas. While the responses of insects to these changes have been increasingly studied, our understanding of how such alterations impact trophic interactions still requires further research to make reliable predictions about the spread of diseases in a warming world. Phytoplasmas, a group of obligate parasitic unculturable Mollicutes, primarily rely on leafhoppers (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) for transmission, spread, and survival. Phytoplasmas are associated with over 600 diseases affecting more than 1,000 plant species, including berries, grapevines, and other small fruits. In North America, diseases such as grapevine yellows, blueberry stunt, and strawberry green petal diseases have been linked to phytoplasma strains transmitted by known leafhopper species. However, the number of phytoplasma diseases has significantly increased in North America over the past decade, suggesting the presence of unidentified vectors or an abundance of leafhopper vectors. This short review provides an overview of the current knowledge on leafhoppers as vectors of phytoplasmas to berries, focusing on the last decade's research in Canada. This paper also explores the potential implications of climate change on this pathosystem, including the anticipated range expansion of leafhopper species, changes in phytoplasma acquisition and transmission, and the risk of new leafhopper-transmitted plant-pathogen introductions through the arrival of new leafhopper species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change and development present significant challenges and complexities that require new solutions, wise choices, and multi-disciplinary integration. In this context, emotional intelligence (EI) plays a crucial role. However, traditional engineering education and practice overlook the importance of understanding and managing emotions. This research aims to determine the impact of EI as a tool to enhance proactive decision-making and implement sustainable measures within the engineering profession.The study makes three main research contributions. First, it confirms a positive relationship between EI and proactive sustainable decision-making among engineers. This means that engineers with high EI are more likely to consider the impacts of their decisions on various stakeholders and dimensions of sustainability. Second, it suggests that EI can enhance creativity and innovative thinking in engineering, helping engineers to develop effective solutions for challenges related to climate change. Third, the study advocates for incorporating EI training and assessment into engineering curriculums to foster a sustainable and ethical engineering culture. By improving EI, engineers can enhance their interpersonal skills, self-awareness, and emotional management, which in turn can significantly improve teamwork in addressing challenges related to climate change. • Innovative Approach: The paper introduces emotional intelligence (EI) as a novel factor in engineering decision-making for climate change adaptation, which provides a fresh perspective within the realm of sustainable practices. • Relevance to Sustainability: It emphasizes the role of EI in fostering proactive and strategic decision-making, which is crucial for mitigating and adapting to a changing climate, aligning with the journal's focus on sustainable solutions1. • Multidisciplinary Integration: The study bridges engineering, psychology, and environmental science, reflecting the journal's interdisciplinary approach to addressing sustainability challenges. • Practical Implications: By exploring the attitudes of engineers and their decision-making tendencies in relation to EI, the paper offers insights that can lead to targeted interventions, contributing to the journal's aim of promoting sustainable practices. • This paper does not constitute a bibliometric study; rather, it provides empirical research on the impact of EI on sustainable decision-making among engineers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore how the power wielded by regional incumbents has impacted subnational innovation agendas. Our findings suggest that the design of mission-oriented innovation policies should be more attentive to regional innovation policies and their relationship to how innovation may serve to bolster incumbents and not undermine them. We use a case-study of innovation in fossil fuels. Recently, innovation policy literature has explored innovation policy and global climate as a major topic. On the one hand, carbon lock-in has been used to explain why there has been such difficulty in reducing carbon emissions, in many cases, despite an increasing emphasis of mission-innovation policies. On the other hand, mission-innovation policies are believed to be a key to the development of disruptive innovations that could break this carbon intensive path dependency. Although the two literatures explore the same problem, there could be more integration. While carbon lock-in is being considered in the mission-innovation literature, it nevertheless has been largely overlooked at the mission-setting stage. On the other hand, the lock-in literature has tended to overlook the findings of mission-oriented innovation literature in offering solutions, which suggests that there is a more productive role for mission-oriented innovations in breaking free of previous constraints to serve in the low-carbon energy transition. To make our case, we argue it is important to distinguish among the various impacts disruptive innovations have on the market shares of incumbents'. We propose the following three schema: new market, market rewarding and market destroying. By variegating the potential impact of innovations, we suggest that mission-oriented innovation polices may be designed to only support certain types of innovations that do not directly undermine the market share of incumbents. Using a detailed case study of the Province of Alberta, Canada, we then explore the role of the province's mission-oriented policy in the development of technology to produce the Canadian oil sands. The case study illustrates how incumbents influenced the establishment and direction of the mission's goal. Shifts in incumbency opposition toward the province's mission-oriented innovation policy coincided with the changing impact of the innovation from being market destroying to market rewarding. We suggest that future research should be more attentive to the role of incumbents in influencing mission-oriented innovation policy and the importance of their influence at the mission-setting stage. Furthermore, we suggest that to meet the grand challenge of addressing climate change through mission-oriented innovation policies, these policies must be designed to break free of these institutional constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive 14C dating and botanical identification of charcoal fragments located in the organic surface soil layer and buried in the mineral podzolic solum were used to reconstruct the successional pathways of a balsam fir forest site. The studied forest site developed in a context of continuous fire disturbance over the last 9000 years with at least 26 fires occurring at a mean interval of 330 years. Tree vegetation of the site followed a four-step trajectory consisting of an early-Holocene spruce forest and a late-Holocene mixedwood balsam fir forest. Boreal-like spruce-birch and temperate-like white pine-birch forests dominated the site between 7900 and 5900 cal. B.P. and 5600 and 1275 cal. B.P., respectively. Because all forest types developed repeatedly after fire since early deglaciation, changes in forest composition, in particular the shift of white pine forest to balsam fir forest, and concurrent decline of birch (yellow birch and/or paper birch) and pine populations were most likely related to progressive cooler and wetter conditions from mid- to late Holocene. Fire disturbance on this part of the southern boreal biome has been a continuous, positive regenerative process over the Holocene, allowing the successional turnover of boreal and temperate trees under the influence of climatic change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canadian environmental governance formally began in the 1970s with an ambitious vision critical of the status quo. Until the Justin Trudeau government from 2015, this vision had been largely eroded when compared to the transformative environmental ideas, ambition, and efforts initially put forth. Drawing on elite interviews in Canadian environmental politics and an articulation of the dominant system, we develop and demonstrate a novel explanation for Canada's systematic failure to act more ambitiously on the environment. We argue that this failure is the result of progressive selection of Canadian environmental governance in relation to the dominant system at key selection moments. It is at those moments when the environment is least prioritized and the economy most urgently needs attention that environmental governance suffers the most. The paper concludes by emphasizing how features of the dominant political-economic system not typically thought of as environmental can have systematic environmental impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of nuisance and negligence tort claims in the US against “Big Oil” companies have grown significantly in the last five years. The Netherlands case of Milieudefensie et al v Royal Dutch Shell represents the first major success of such a claim internationally. While the US cases and Milieudefensie demonstrate starkly different approaches as to how to seek accountability from Big Oil for climate change harms, the increasing judicial engagement on these issues may mean the time is right for similar lawsuits in Canada. Three Canadian common law causes of action are examined: nuisance, negligence, and unjust enrichment. Defences and arguments which stem from society’s (and any potential plaintiff’s) acquiescence and authorization to allow the defendants’ conduct may present difficult barriers to success. This paper focuses on these types of defences, and argues that the responsibility of Big Oil for climate change harms should not be completely vitiated even if governments and plaintiffs have acquiesced, authorized, and arguably contributed to our climate crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes are happening at an unprecedented rate, as identified in the 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Environmental philanthropy, those acts of contributions toward the conservation and preservation of the environment, need to be better understood, as research suggests there is insufficient literature in this area. For Muslims living in Canada, the concept of charity, khalifa (a sacred entrustment whereby Muslims strive to support and preserve all of the Earth and what is in it), and worship take root and have developed within a context of immigration, identity formation, and broader Canadian contexts. The Muslim Canadian identity is informed by the social, political, economic, and historical elements of the Muslim Canadian experience. In turn, this informs the Muslim Canadian environmental philanthropy narrative. This paper explores the relationship between Islam, eco-consciousness, and its manifestations in environmental philanthropy in Canada and how this is informing the climate change crisis. Centered on the narratives of ten Muslim Canadians currently leading and involved with environmental philanthropy, the paper also offers insight on future considerations for environmental philanthropy within the Muslim Canadian context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this empirical case study is to study and explain the role of public leadership in the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Design/methodology/approach: In 2017 and 2018, the authors conducted13 semi-directed interviews with municipal staff and elected officials from three municipalities, a documentary analysis of primary and secondary sources. Interviews and documentation collected were also coded using the software NVIVO 12. The authors compared three municipal case studies: the City of Toronto (Ontario), the City of Guelph (Ontario), and the Town of Bridgewater (Nova Scotia). Findings: The authors found that leadership is a prominent factor explaining the expansion of municipal climate action in Canada. Municipal climate action is initiated and championed by an individual, elected officials or municipal staff, who lead and engage in the development of policy instruments to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change. These leaders facilitate the formulation and implementation of instruments, encourage a paradigm shift within the municipality, overcome structural and behavioural barriers, and foster collaboration around a common vision. Optimal municipal climate leadership occurs when the leadership of elected officials and municipal is congruent, though networks play a significant role by amplifying municipal sustainability leadership. They support staff and elected officials leadership within municipalities, provide more information and funding to grow the capacity of municipalities to develop instruments, to the point that conditions under which municipalities are driving climate action are changing. Research limitations/implications: This paper hopes to contribute to better understand under what conditions municipalities drive change. Originality/value: There is an international scholarly recognition that municipalities should be further explored and considered important actors in the Canadian and international climate change governance. Gore (2010) and Robinson and Gore (2015) highlighted that we are yet to understand the extent to which municipalities are involved in climate governance in Canada. This article directly addresses this gap in the current scholarly literature and explores the expansion of climate municipal leadership with the aspects of interviews. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an outlook on the effects of climate change and the severity and frequency of extreme weather events on the performance of flexible pavements across North America. Now more than ever, the climate is changing at a rapid pace, which will alter long-term environmental loading parameters and extreme weather events. Such alterations will pose implications for the design, maintenance, and rehabilitation of flexible pavements, especially in terms of their serviceability, safety, and functionality. In northern Canada, roads are founded on various terrain types, including thaw-sensitive ice-rich permafrost underlying terrains. Such roads have experienced signs of embankment and pavement damage, which are usually induced by the degradation of the underlying permafrost due to climate change. Therefore, the development and implementation of new permafrost thaw mitigation techniques for vulnerable roads are essential and will be discussed in this paper. Resilient flexible roads should be designed to withstand the conditions that are likely to occur during their design life, taking into account the impact of the climate change on pavement performance in response to daily and seasonal changes in heat, precipitation, freeze–thaw cycles, and extreme weather events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada's climate is warming at a rate about double the global average, leading to potential negative impacts on public infrastructures such as jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP). In light of this reality of changing climate, the work contained in this paper is aimed at evaluating JPCP's early-age behaviour in response to environmental conditions. HIPERPAV® software and the associated models developed by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) were used to identify cracking potential. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effect of different levels of air temperature, mix temperature, base layer temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. Additionally, projected extreme temperatures predicted by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM) were used to determine the relative impact of climate change on cracking risk. The results demonstrated the increased cracking risk under changing climate in several Canadian cities by mid-century and highlighted the importance of developing a pathway forward for climate adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire activity in 288 areas (2.5° N × 10° E) in the Arctic region (50°–70° N, 0°–360° E) was analyzed using about 4.4 million satellite hotspot (HS) data from 2002 to 2021. A total of 21 high fire density areas from eastern Europe to western Canada were selected, and their fire–weather conditions during each active fire period were analyzed using about 1820 various weather maps at the upper and the lower air level. Analysis results showed that the active fires in the Arctic region occurred under the fire–weather conditions associated with the northward movement of cut-off high (COH) and warm air masses detached from the south caused by large westerly meandering (LWM). LWM is a sign of the beginning of an active fire period. Very active fires on HS peak days occurred several days after the start of the northward movement of COHs and under mainly high-pressure conditions in the upper air and strong wind conditions in the lower air. The time lag of these several days suggests that we may be prepared for very active fires. The fire–weather analysis approach described in this paper has shown that future large-scale fire outbreaks are predictable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses agricultural economics literature on farmland prices and key determinants of these prices. The first section of the paper uses a basic capitalization model to organize a review of the literature and data. We then provide a focused assessment of five streams of literature examining farmland prices: (1) boom‐bust; (2) the capitalization effect of government agricultural subsidies on farmland prices; (3) agricultural zoning; (4) climate change; and (5) prohibitions against non‐local buyers of farmland. Our review highlights challenges to ongoing efforts to model changing farmland prices, the modern emphasis on econometric identification, important variation in the magnitude of estimated relationships across the literature, and the opportunity to expand research in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Arctic is a complex and fragile region which is currently experiencing unprecedented environmental degradation due to climate change. The effects of climate change on the Canadian Arctic is just one example where we're seeing the decline of ecosystems and socio-culture-environmental traditions. Mineral development in this already fragile ecosystem is indeed a contentious and high-risk endeavour. However, mining is currently one of the few industries and economic development opportunities in the Canadian Arctic, which is one of the poorest regions in Canada. Unfortunately, mining struggles to achieve environmental sustainability due to mineral development's inherent trade-off of short-term economic gains for long-term environmental impacts. Local communities are usually left with trying to find this balance. This paper analyzes how we can apply decision-making techniques and environmental management tools for the Canadian Arctic's mining industry to promote better environmental sustainability, understanding of environmental-economic trade-offs, and community involvement. Specific decision-making methodologies and management tools are analyzed to develop, discuss, and explore their application for the Canadian Arctic. This paper concludes with a framework that brings together the analyzed methods and Arctic specificities; to prioritize environmental issues and to ensure long-term thriving communities in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate changes over the past two millennia in the central part of the Gulf of St. Lawrence are documented in this paper with the aim of determining and understanding the natural climate variability and the impact of anthropogenic forcing at a regional scale. The palynological content (dinocysts, pollen, and spores) of the composite marine sediment core MSM46-03 collected in the Laurentian Channel was used to reconstruct oceanographic and climatic changes with a multidecadal temporal resolution. Sea-surface conditions, including summer salinity and temperature, sea-ice cover, and primary productivity, were reconstructed from dinocyst assemblages. Results revealed a remarkable cooling trend of about 4°C after 1230 cal yr BP (720 CE) and a culmination with a cold pulse dated to 170-40 cal yr BP (1780-1910 CE), which likely corresponds to the regional signal of the Little Ice Age. This cold interval was followed by a rapid warming of about 3°C. In the pollen assemblages, the decrease of Pinus abundance over the past 1700 yr suggests changes in wind regimes, likely resulting from increased southerly incursions of cold and dry Arctic air masses into southeastern Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Canada is among one of the few remaining United Nations member states that does not have a constitutionally protected right to a healthy environment. Amid concerns about climate change and its impact on human health and well-being, the Constitution has become a focal point for advancing environmental justice in Canada. This paper explores three questions surrounding environmental rights and the Constitution. First, does the right to life, liberty, and security of the person, protected by section 7 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, protect a right to a healthy environment? If it does, would such a right strengthen Canada's framework for environmental protection? And lastly, what would a robust conception of the right to a healthy environment look like, given the emergence of international human rights in the environmental context? To answer these questions, this paper analyzes the jurisprudence on section 7 of the Charter in the environmental context to determine whether a right to a healthy environment is protected under the right to life, liberty and security of the person. It draws on research from other countries with constitutionally protected environmental rights to assess what benefits such a right can provide and what challenges it poses. This paper also surveys best practices that have emerged from international human rights law to understand what the content of a robust right to a healthy environment might look like. The author argues that courts have implicitly accepted that a right to a healthy environment may be protected by section 7 of the Charter, and that courts should recognize such a right as it could help Canada strengthen its approach to environmental protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the consideration of climate change in environmental assessment (EA) in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, British Columbia, Canada. Based on an analysis of recent EA applications, results show that climate change is considered, to some extent, in all phases of EA for most LNG projects. However, stakeholders indicate a dissatisfaction with practice – often based on expectations about EA that exceed what it can deliver as a project-based tool, and sometimes based on an incomplete understanding of existing climate change legislation and targets. Results also indicate inconsistent application of existing climate change requirements across project EAs. Notwithstanding proponents often addressing climate change in their EA applications, climate change tends to receive little attention in project decision and approval conditions. The paper concludes with recommendations for better practice climate change consideration in EA that is commensurate with the scope and scale of project-level issues, complemented by more strategic EA and economic instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) developed at Environment and Climate Change Canada's Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). A 40-member ensemble of CanESM5 historical decadal forecasts (or hindcasts) is integrated for ten years from realistic initial states during 1961 to present using prescribed external forcing. The results are part of CCCma's contribution to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) component of CMIP6. This paper evaluates CanESM5 large ensemble decadal hindcasts against observational benchmarks and against historical climate simulations initialized from preindustrial control run states. The focus is on the evaluation of the potential predictability and actual skill of annual and multi-year averages of key oceanic and atmospheric fields at regional and global scales. The impact of initialization on prediction skill is quantified from the hindcasts decomposition into uninitialized and initialized components. The dependence of potential and actual skill on ensemble size is examined. CanESM5 decadal hindcasts skilfully predict upper-ocean states and surface climate with a significant impact from initialization that depend on climate variable, forecast range, and geographic location. Deficiencies in the skill of North Atlantic surface climate are identified and potential causes discussed. The inclusion of biogeochemical modules in CanESM5 enables the prediction of carbon cycle variables which are shown to be skilful on decadal time scales, with a strong long-lasting impact from initialization on skill in the ocean and a moderate short-lived impact on land. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fate of the carbon stored in frozen peatlands in Canada's Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) depends strongly on water, with wetter conditions favoring long-term storage. Dynamic surface water products generated from historical Landsat data exist to inform surface water trends in the HBL based on binary classifications of land vs water at 30 m spatial resolution. However, the HBL contains many water features smaller than 30 m, including streams and patterned fens that require a sub-pixel mapping approach to fully capture their dynamics. In this paper, we leverage an existing binary dynamic surface water product to generate a spatially and temporally comprehensive Landsat sub-pixel surface water time-series over the HBL. We first generate Landsat Red, NIR and SWIR composites from 1985 to 2021 and evaluate data-driven machine learning and physical models to derive sub-30 m water fractions across the entire mapping domain. Data-driven models were calibrated on 30 m water fractions obtained from 16 of 17 WorldView scene water fraction maps and assessed on the 17th held-out scene in a jackknife validation. Data-driven models were also calibrated by relating scaled Landsat reflectance to water fractions obtained from binary water masks at corresponding scales from 90 to 270 m. Physical models involved simple linear unmixing using a new approach that samples land endmembers in the vicinity of each pixel to represent land reflectance, and a global water endmember sampled beneath permanent water in each image. The assumption of linear scaling was verified at sub-30 m to 270 m resolution for NIR, SWIR and NDVI, which were all highly correlated with water fraction and had no significant differences among water fraction – spectral feature relationships across the full range of scales. Each of 11 different methods and input spectral features were evaluated against WorldView water fractions and ranked based on nine criteria. We found that machine learning using all spectral features including local NIR land endmembers performed best among data-driven approaches, and linear unmixing of the NIR band using local land endmembers performed best among physical. Both best-performing methods were applied to the entire time-series and surface water area trends were calculated and compared with trends obtained from binary water masks. All three methods agree on the direction of surface water change towards wetting, with sub-pixel inter-annual variation agreeing with stream discharge noted in other studies. • Physical and data-driven Landsat water fraction methods tested in the Hudson Bay Lowlands. • Physical methods perform linear unmixing between local land and global water endmembers. • Data-driven methods consist of machine learning calibrated using high-resolution water. • Best methods applied to 1985–2021 Landsat time-series reveal overall wetting trends. • Spatial trends generally suggest drying in bogs and wetting in fens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine the centrality of policy actors and moral justifications in media debates on Arctic climate change in Finland and Canada from 2011–2015. We take a network approach on the media debates by analysing relations between the actors and justifications, using discourse network analysis on a dataset of 745 statements from four newspapers. We find that in both countries, governments and universities are the most central actors, whereas business actors are the least central. Justifications that value environmental sustainability and scientific knowledge are most central and used across actor types. However, ecological justifications are sometimes in conflict with market justifications. Government actors emphasize new economic possibilities in the Arctic whereas environmental organizations demand greater protection of the vulnerable Arctic. Ecological justifications and justifications that value international cooperation are more central in the Finnish debate, whereas justifications valuing sustainability and science, as well as those valuing national sovereignty, are more central in the Canadian debate. We conclude that in addition to the centrality of specific policy actors in media debates, the use of different types of moral justifications also reflects political power in the media sphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout his tenure as Prime Minster of Canada (2006-2015), Stephen Harper had a particular fascination with the Canadian North, illustrated in part by his annual tours of the Canadian Arctic and Subarctic region. Using these tours as a case study, this paper argues that state discourses of sovereignty, resource development, and climate change are intertwined with the simultaneous production of a tourist landscape. This tourist landscape is established in part through the circulation of affect within state discourses, like those engaged by Harper on his northern tours. The affective economies of tourism in the Canadian Arctic are heavily intertwined with both market-focused policy objectives and the moral imperative established by climate change. The result is a discourse of northern Canada that puts it within the purview of southern Canada. In particular, the affective, economic, and ecological dynamics in northern Canada produce an image of the North as both a playground for southern desires and a place in danger that is in need of saving. This moral economy in the North proposes market-based solutions and ethics for both economic and environmental problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is widely recognized as one of the most challenging, urgent and complex problem facing humanity. There are rising interests in understanding and quantifying climate changing. We analyze the climate trend in Canada using Canadian monthly surface air temperature, which is longitudinal data in nature with long time span. Analysis of such data is challenging due to the complexity of modeling and associated computation burdens. In this paper, we divide this type of longitudinal data into time blocks, conduct multivariate regression and utilize a vine copula model to account for the dependence among the multivariate error terms. This vine copula model allows separate specification of within-block and between-block dependence structure and has great flexibility of modeling complex association structures. To release the computational burden and concentrate on the structure of interest, we construct composite likelihood functions, which leave the connecting structure between time blocks unspecified. We discuss different estimation procedures and issues regarding model selection and prediction. We explore the prediction performance of our vine copula model by extensive simulation studies. An analysis of the Canada climate dataset is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecozones are described by the basal physical features of the environment: geological structure and chemistry, the landforms which have developed on the geological underpinnings over time, and climate. These are major geographical units with a characteristic macro climate, whose constituent physiographic forms, faunal and floral realms, hydrological systems and soils are inter-related. This paper examines the 33 earthworm species in three families recorded in the 15 Canadian ecozones. There is a discussion on the effect of climate change may have on earthworm's northern migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying a proposed project's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and scrutinizing their effect on climate change are increasingly required in Canadian environmental assessment (EA) processes. This paper investigates to what degree an EA authority's intention for the inclusion of GHG considerations has resulted in implementation into environmental impact statements (EISs) by proponents and how these considerations influence the achievement of GHG reduction targets. Fifteen projects across five Canadian jurisdictions were reviewed. The examination revealed that well-developed intentions by EA authorities did not necessarily result in proponents following guidelines for GHG consideration in their EISs due to the absence of regulation or clearly defined policies. Conversely, even though intentions by an EA authority are underdeveloped in some jurisdictions, EISs sometimes exhibited thorough GHG assessments due to mechanisms in the EA process through which GHG consideration by the proponent could be compelled. The examination did not reveal how GHG consideration in EA currently assists in meeting reduction targets. A GHG emissions limit imposed during the EA process could link EA to success in meeting these targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are taking a leadership role in addressing global climate change and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but policy innovations are needed to help cities move from goals to outcomes. Pilot projects are one means by which cities are experimenting with new ways of governing and financing climate change mitigation. In this paper, we develop a framework for understanding the role of pilot projects in urban policy innovation: their emergence and rationale, and the means by which they ultimately scale up and out to reduce GHG emissions. We use this framework to evaluate a pilot project for retrofitting social housing buildings in Toronto. We find the initial pilot project helped address the challenges of pursuing deep retrofits of social housing. Scaling these lessons up to the city level required overcoming challenges to financing and coordinating a larger project; scaling out to the provincial level revealed institutional and political obstacles to pursuing the co‐benefits of deep building retrofits in social housing. Bridging agents play an important role in both scaling processes. The analysis reveals the additive nature of urban policy innovation and the dynamic interplay of change agents and institutional and political context in innovation processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically an important transportation corridor in the Northwest Territories, climate change has shortened the duration of the Mackenzie River's navigational season. Communities rely increasingly on airlift as the growing volatility affects barging operations, leading to higher overall freight costs. Using an options approach, we present a methodological framework that supports flexible infrastructure decision making, accounting for the impacts of climate change uncertainty. We apply this method to the decision of whether to continue barging on the Mackenzie River, or connect the entire corridor by extending the all-weather Mackenzie Valley Highway, explicitly considering uncertainties in river barging conditions. We first model river open season days as a stochastic process; barging is dependent on the number of open season days, which in turn is affected by climate change. Second, we evaluate the expected cost of barging and airlift each season using a modified Black-Scholes model. Finally, we use real options to determine how long construction of the all-weather highway may be deferred. The results indicate that it is advisable to defer construction nearly a decade, in balancing the costs of construction against climate change uncertainty. This paper demonstrates that when we explicitly incorporate the impact of climate change on project valuations, particularly those in northern and Arctic Canada where these impacts are considerable, project valuations can change significantly such that all-weather road construction is supported, even if it is deferred to future years. This method can assist federal and territorial governments in communicating the impacts of climate change on communities, and provide another tool to support multi-layered, complex transportation infrastructure investment decisions that address these rapidly changing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper is concerned with thermal disturbances in continuous permafrost due to open pit mining and tailings impoundment in the cold regions of Northern Canada. Numerical simulations were conducted to investigate issues of thermal regime changes and permafrost degradation in both the short term and the long term in connection with the proposed Kiggavik project in Nunavut, Canada. The results of numerical simulations indicate that no open talik would form below the East Zone and Center Zone pits during the estimated mining and milling operation period of 14 years, although a thin thawed zone would develop surrounding the open pits. For the Main Zone pit where the excavation would break through permafrost, the open talik remains following an extended operation period of 25 years with a 5 to 30 m thawed zone along the pit side walls. In the long term, with a plausible climate change scenario of 5 °C increase in the mean annual ground surface temperature during the next 100 years, the permafrost surrounding the in-pit tailings management facilities (TMFs) would reduce greatly in about 500 years. However, an approximately 40 m thick permafrost layer would remain on the top of the TMFs, which is impervious and would prevent any tailings pore water from migrating upward to reach the ground surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold region hydrology is very sensitive to the impacts of climate warming. Impacts of warming over recent decades in western Canada include glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and changing patterns of precipitation, with an increased proportion of winter precipitation falling as rainfall and shorter durations of snow cover, as well as consequent changes in flow regimes. Future warming is expected to continue along these lines. Physically realistic and sophisticated hydrological models driven by reliable climate forcing can provide the capability to assess hydrological responses to climate change. However, the provision of reliable forcing data remains problematic, particularly in data-sparse regions. Hydrological processes in cold regions involve complex phase changes and so are very sensitive to small biases in the driving meteorology, particularly in temperature and precipitation, including precipitation phase. Cold regions often have sparse surface observations, particularly at high elevations that generate a large amount of runoff. This paper aims to provide an improved set of forcing data for large-scale hydrological models for climate change impact assessment. The best available gridded data in Canada are from the high-resolution forecasts of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model and outputs of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA), but these datasets have a short historical record. The EU WATCH ERA-Interim reanalysis (WFDEI) has a longer historical record but has often been found to be biased relative to observations over Canada. The aim of this study, therefore, is to blend the strengths of both datasets (GEM-CaPA and WFDEI) to produce a less-biased long-record product (WFDEI-GEM-CaPA) for hydrological modelling and climate change impact assessment over the Mackenzie River Basin. First, a multivariate generalization of the quantile mapping technique was implemented to bias-correct WFDEI against GEM-CaPA at 3 h ×0.125∘ resolution during the 2005–2016 overlap period, followed by a hindcast of WFDEI-GEM-CaPA from 1979. The derived WFDEI-GEM-CaPA data are validated against station observations as a preliminary step to assess their added value. This product is then used to bias-correct climate projections from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) between 1950 and 2100 under RCP8.5, and an analysis of the datasets shows that the biases in the original WFDEI product have been removed and the climate change signals in CanRCM4 are preserved. The resulting bias-corrected datasets are a consistent set of historical and climate projection data suitable for large-scale modelling and future climate scenario analysis. The final historical product (WFDEI-GEM-CaPA, 1979–2016) is freely available at the Federated Research Data Repository at 10.20383/101.0111 (Asong et al., 2018), while the original and corrected CanRCM4 data are available at 10.20383/101.0162 (Asong et al., 2019). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A wealth of pre-Confederation weather and climate observations were recorded in Canada by individuals and institutions during both the French and British empires. This scientific heritage came about for a number of reasons. For instance, the Hudson's Bay Company wanted to reduce operating costs by having their posts in Canada's north-west become self-sufficient in agriculture. Others wished to save lives from cholera or shipwrecks, or to satisfy curiosity about the ever-present debate concerning anthropogenic climate change. Today, historical climate observations can be found in many diverse locations. Despite our rich scientific heritage, turning archival paper and ink observations into scientific data remains an enormous technical challenge. This challenge falls to our generation, both to use this heritage to investigate the historical context of current climate change and variability, and to use the digital resources in development today to safeguard our scientific heritage for future generations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Weather is a key source of marine risk, but relationships between fishing activity, safety, and weather remain poorly understood. Critically, the fit between available marine forecast products, fish harvesters' needs, and harvester's decision-making processes has not been rigorously assessed. This paper addresses these gaps by documenting a) weather-related decision-making by harvesters, and its relationship to forecasts across multiple regions and fisheries on Canada's East coast (Newfoundland) and b) the dynamics of forecast production priorities. Methods: A multi-disciplinary, community-engaged research approach, conducted in partnership with the Newfoundland and Labrador Fish Harvesting Safety Association (NL-FHSA). Data consist of semi-structured interviews with fish harvesters and weather forecasters, focused on marine forecast production and use. Results: Results emphasize that there is a subjective "art" to both production and use of marine forecasts. Forecasters and harvesters share several common values regarding forecasts, but different emphases: forecasters favor some combination of accuracy, consistency, and utility, while harvesters are largely concerned with utility. Finally, harvesters' decision-making is based on nuanced and contextual interpretations of a few key hazards (winds and, to a lesser extent, waves). Conclusion: This community-engaged research has triggered experimentation with forecasts tailored to fisheries utility within Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). It lays the groundwork for ongoing, mutually beneficial dialogue between forecasters and harvesters, engaging harvesters with the forecasting process while familiarizing forecasters with harvester's decision-making processes. Ongoing industry partnerships (NL-FHSA) continue to sustain momentum from this study towards further enhancing the utility of future marine forecasts for small-scale harvesters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic shelf seas are highly heterogeneous, making it difficult to accurately account for their role in regional and global air‐sea CO2 exchange budgets. Here we estimate the CO2 sink in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) based on empirical relationships that account for spatiotemporal variations in the sea surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2sw) as a function of seasonal sea ice cycles. During the open water season from 2010 to 2016, the CAA acted as a net oceanic sink with an average CO2 flux of −7.7 ± 4 Tg C/year. This sink is significantly smaller than previous estimates for the CAA, emphasizing the importance of properly accounting for seasonal and spatial variability on Arctic shelves. Applying our analysis to a 37‐year record of sea ice conditions, we calculate an increase in the open water CO2 sink by ~150% (a trend of ~ −1.3 Tg C/decade), associated with sea ice loss and higher wind speeds. Plain Language Summary: Much of the carbon dioxide (CO2) humans put into the air ends up in the oceans. This is good because it slows down climate change but also bad because some creatures could be hurt by extra CO2. In the Arctic, it is hard to know how much CO2 is absorbed by the ocean, because the ocean is frozen for much of the year. In this paper, we try to figure out how much CO2 is going into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago—a shallow sea in northern Canada that is home to the famous Northwest Passage. We found that the amount of CO2 going into this sea is much lower than scientists thought before because they did not fully account for the ice. However, the amount of CO2 going into the sea each year is increasing, because sea ice is melting due to climate change. Key Points: The Canadian Arctic Archipelago acts as a net oceanic sink of CO2 during the open water season with an average uptake rate of 7.7 Tg C/yearAtmospheric CO2 uptake during the open water season has increased by 150% over 37 years due to sea ice loss and higher wind speedsEstimates of CO2 uptake on Arctic shelves must account for spatiotemporal variability in sea ice conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the stratigraphic occurrence of n -alkanes (C n) is investigated in three peat cores (Mildred, JPH4 and McMurray) from the ombrotrophic peatlands in northeastern Alberta, Canada, to determine their origin, biomass input, and paleoclimatic significance. The molecular composition of n -alkanes is dominated by the >C 21 medium- to long-chain homologues, with a strong odd over even predominance. A number of n -alkane-based indices (e.g. predominant n -alkane, C 23 /C 29 , C 23 /(C 27 + C 31), P aq , ACL, and CPI), show changing conditions in the organic matter (OM) input from Sphagnum species or terrestrial vascular plants, which increasingly contributed upwards in the peat profiles, and through time. P aq and C 23 /(C 27 + C 31) proxies are similar in the three cores, and allow us to infer vegetation variations that coincide with the climate alternations of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and modern Recent Warming (RW). The utilization of ACL-ket and (C 23 + C 25)/(C 27 + C 29 + C 31)-ket proxies, performed in comparison with n -alkane proxies, further support the biomarker-based reconstructions of paleoclimate variations over recent centuries. This study suggests that n -alkane homologues are sensitive to vegetation and climate changes and thus are reliable biomarkers for tracking past shifts in vegetation and climate variations in peat archives. • Determine organic matter source of peat sediments from n -alkane biomarkers. • C 23 /(C 27 +C 31) n -alkane proxy is proposed and can effectively characterize climate changes. • P aq proxy indication could be misleading when the contribution of Sphagnum fuscum to the peat is large. • n -Alkan-2-one proxy is studied to further confirm the biomarker-based reconstruction of paleoclimatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil respiration is a crucial source of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the atmosphere. The underlying processes involved are multifaceted, sequential chemical reactions associated with the conversion of soil organic carbon to CO 2. In this paper, we present a mechanistic, biogeochemical model to simulate soil CO 2 emissions considering the microbial and sequential chemical processes using the well-established hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the first time. The soil CO 2 emissions from multiple sequential soil chemical reactions were compared with the observed data at three sites in Canada. The results show that the modelled CO 2 emission rates are in good agreement with the observed data with performance statistics: PBIAS: 0.13%–23%; NSE: 0.27 to 0.62; RSR: 0.60 to 0.84; R2: 0.29 to 0.83. This approach could be used in future regional to global-scale models for simulating the soil CO 2 emission and hydrological processes. Image 1 • Modelling of soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition. • Soil chemical reactions modelling using microbial kinetics and thermodynamics. • Modelling of soil autotrophic respiration and soil heterotrophic respiration. • Modelling of soil CO 2 emissions using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). • Watershed-scale modelling of soil CO 2 emission using SWAT tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses risks to coastal cities due to sea-level rise and changes in storm surge. Using the contingent valuation method and payment card format, this paper seeks to estimate residents of Halifax Regional Municipality's willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding impacts from storm surge. The contribution of this study is the application of this method in a previously unstudied region, to understand individuals' perception of risk and WTP to avoid damage, in order to inform policy aimed at protecting against damage due to sea-level rise and storm surge. WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change, and also for public vs. private goods. Data is analyzed and compared using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. Results suggest that on average, WTP is roughly $12 per month per household over a ten-year period without the expectation of climate change, and roughly $13 per month per household assuming climate change will have negative impacts in the region. Individuals are most often willing to pay to protect against damages to public infrastructure, as well as power outages. Income and education do not play a major role in individuals WTP. Vulnerability to flooding and level of concern related to risky events have a statistically significant impact on WTP in all models, and gender and age have an impact on WTP in some models. • Willingness to pay (WTP) for protection from flooding is estimated in Halifax, Canada. • WTP is estimated without and with the expectation of future climate change. • Data is analyzed using OLS, Heckman two-step and Tobit Interval regression models. • WTP is roughly $12–13 per month per household over a ten-year period. • Vulnerability to flooding and concern related to risky events have an impact on WTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whether it's a big city or a small town, all Canadian municipalities have core issues that their elected politicians are concerned about. Regardless of size, the daily business of a municipality must be managed and policies determined about such bread-and-butter issues as garbage collection, snow removal, wastewater and sewage, fire protection, economic development and fixing potholes. However, when size increases, so do the layers of issues that engage municipal politicians. This paper examines the results of a cross-Canada survey of more than 1,000 mayors and councillors from communities ranging in population size from 5,000 to more than two million. With an increase in population size, the numbers and complexity of issues creep up as well. Tiny municipalities typically aren't concerned with issues such as immigrant settlement, homelessness and public transit. Those issues are much more pressing for larger municipalities. A focus on some types of issues, such as public transit, grows right alongside population growth. The physical size of large municipalities means they contain a population whose needs are naturally more diverse than they are in smaller cities, towns and villages, thus shifting politicians' concerns to such things as homelessness and climate change. However, issues such as relations with Indigenous people and climate change also tend to hold regional, not just municipal, importance. They may be extremely important to a small municipality because of its geographic location and less important in a larger municipality located elsewhere. For example, municipal politicians in British Columbia reflect regional concerns with their emphasis in the survey on the importance of tackling homelessness, affordable housing, climate change and Indigenous relations. Yet, next door in Alberta, Indigenous relations and climate change ranked in the survey as being of low importance, along with climate change, despite the presence of two cities in the province with populations hovering around the million mark. The number one issue for municipalities regardless of size is economic development, since job creation and attracting investment are key for a healthy municipality regardless of its location or size. And nearly every politician surveyed listed planning, water supply and transportation infrastructure (roads, highways and bridges) as being of deep importance to their communities. Of almost equal importance in the survey were a second slate of issues including emergency planning, parks and recreation, public health, solid waste removal and policing. The results of this survey are intended to lay the groundwork for future researchers who want to focus on specific problems in the area of urban policy-making. Those who want to study the bread-and-butter issues can do so among a wide range and size of municipalities, knowing that these issues are vital to all. Those with an interest in homelessness and immigrant populations can focus on the big cities while being assured they are not missing out on key points among smaller communities. This survey will be highly beneficial for researchers in urban policy issues as it will help them to decide where to look and exactly what to look for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key Messages: Canadian nationalist rhetoric is still premised on resource extraction despite discussions of climate change by the Liberal government since 2015.Taking earth system science seriously requires rethinking national identity and the conventional geopolitical premises on which it is based.Meeting Paris Agreement on Climate Change commitments requires much more fundamental changes than Canadian Federal government rhetoric so far acknowledges. Considering recent formulations of geopolitical culture in combination with concerns that environmental change be included in contemporary geopolitical analysis, this paper examines the implicit geopolitical formulations in recent Canadian federal political discourse both in Stephen Harper's Conservative government and the subsequent Liberal administration. Contrasting earth system science ideas about global transformations with Canadian nationalist rhetoric concerning petroleum production and notions of unlimited resource extraction as parts of national identity sharply highlights the contours of Canadian identity. If sustainability is to be taken seriously, the official nationalist formulation will have to be drastically changed, but as the widespread rejection of the LEAP manifesto suggests, such ideas of a sustainable mode of globalization have yet to substantially influence Canadian political discourse, despite the rhetorical support offered to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change by the Liberal government of Justin Trudeau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Local public health authorities often lack the capacity to adapt to climate change, despite being on the 'front lines' of climate impacts. Upper-level governments are well positioned to create an enabling environment for adaptation and build local public health authorities' capacity, yet adaptation literature has not specified how upper-level governments can build local-level adaptive capacity. In this paper we examine how federal and regional governments can contribute to enabling and supporting public health adaptation to climate change at the local level in federal systems. We outline the local level's self-assessed adaptive capacity for public health adaptation in Canadian and German comparative case studies, in terms of funding, knowledge and skills, organizations, and prioritization, drawing upon 30 semi-structured interviews. Based on interviewees' recommendations and complemented by scientific literature, we develop a set of practical measures that could enable or support local-level public health adaptation. We find that adaptive capacity varies widely between local public health authorities, but most report having insufficient funding and staff for adaptation activities. We propose 10 specific measures upper-level governments can take to build local public health authorities' capacity for adaptation, under the interrelated target areas of: building financial capital; developing and disseminating usable knowledge; collaborating and coordinating for shared knowledge; and claiming leadership. Federal and regional governments have an important role to play in enabling local-level public health adaptation, and have many instruments available to them to fulfill that role. Selecting and implementing measures to enable local public health authorities' adaptive capacity will require tailoring to, and consideration, of the local context and needs. Highlights • Local public health authorities often lack capacity to adapt to climate change. • National and regional governments can play supportive or enabling role. • We propose 10 concrete measures to enable local public health adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modifications to the environment around a weather station or changes in instrument result in discontinuities or shift in weather data. This paper asks the often ignored questions such as, “what are the impacts of inhomogenized data?” and “does using homogenized weather data affect the conclusions of environmental research?” To answer these questions, we used the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (CFFWI) System for our studies. Weather station data are used to calculate wildfire danger indices. The homogenized data and raw (inhomogenized) observations for sixteen weather stations spread across Canada were used to calculate the CFFWI indices. The sixteen weather stations were further divided into three subset of stations based on the length of the accessible data during the fire season (April to end of September). The first set included stations that covered just 27 years of data and the second data sets had 49 years of data, while the third set included only five stations with the longest time period of 66 years. The majority of the stations, as measured by the Wilcoxon signed-rank test, rejected the null hypothesis (difference between the pairs follows a symmetric distribution around zero). The rejection rate increases to 100% as the length of data record increases from 27 to 66 years. Homogenization of 66 years data reduced the indices values approximately 0.7–8.4% and also reversed the long-term trend in some stations such as Kapuskasing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An objective analysis is one of the main components of data assimilation. By combining observations with the output of a predictive model we combine the best features of each source of information: the complete spatial and temporal coverage provided by models, with a close representation of the truth provided by observations. The process of combining observations with a model output is called an analysis. To produce an analysis requires the knowledge of observation and model errors, as well as its spatial correlation. This paper is devoted to the development of methods of estimation of these error variances and the characteristic length-scale of the model error correlation for its operational use in the Canadian objective analysis system. We first argue in favor of using compact support correlation functions, and then introduce three estimation methods: the Hollingsworth–Lönnberg (HL) method in local and global form, the maximum likelihood method (ML), and thediagnostic method. We perform one-dimensional (1D) simulation studies where the error variance and true correlation length are known, and perform an estimation of both error variances and correlation length where both are non-uniform. We show that a local version of the HL method can capture accurately the error variances and correlation length at each observation site, provided that spatial variability is not too strong. However, the operational objective analysis requires only a single and globally valid correlation length. We examine whether any statistics of the local HL correlation lengths could be a useful estimate, or whether other global estimation methods such as by the global HL, ML, orshould be used. We found in both 1D simulation and using real data that the ML method is able to capture physically significant aspects of the correlation length, while most other estimates give unphysical and larger length-scale values. Implications: This paper describes a proposed improvement of the objective analysis of surface pollutants at Environment and Climate Change Canada (formerly known as Environment Canada). Objective analyses are essentially surface maps of air pollutants that are obtained by combining observations with an air quality model output, and are thought to provide a complete and more accurate representation of the air quality. The highlight of this study is an analysis of methods to estimate the model (or background) error correlation length-scale. The error statistics are an important and critical component to the analysis scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

For over two decades, municipal climate progress has been inventoried and analysed using a common reporting framework. While useful for highlighting the extent of municipal engagement in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, we know little about how comprehensive this reporting framework is. Are municipal governments engaging in mitigation activities outside this framework? And what about climate adaptation activity for which no long-standing milestone reporting framework has existed? Based on results from a national survey of municipal governments in Canada, the paper reveals that municipal governments are engaged in many climate activities and processes that common inventories and reporting systems do not capture. The paper argues that these ‘in between activities’ – the not-yet counted climate actions that take place between and outside of milestone initiation and completion – have practical importance for future climate action and theoretical importance by complementing growing evidence about the nature of municipal climate activities and climate governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are currently at the crux of political, environmental, technological, and cultural discussions due to climate change. A drastic reduction of GHG emissions is needed in order to mitigate potentially catastrophic climate change impacts. Thus, thoroughly understanding emission sources is imperative. A disaggregated analysis of Canada’s future GHG emission projections has not yet been conducted. The objectives in this paper are to assess disaggregated GHG emissions in Canada for the years 2014, 2030, and 2050, and analyze the results through Sankey diagrams. Emissions are calculated using a bottom-up multi-regional accounting-based Long-range Energy Alternative Planning systems model. Each major economic sector in Canada is analyzed including the electricity generation, residential, commercial and institutional, industrial, transportation, and agriculture sectors. The emissions released in these sectors are traced to the resources and end-uses responsible. Results are presented for Canada and for provinces individually. GHG emissions contained in exported resources are evaluated. Results show that Canada’s business-as-usual GHG emissions will grow from 732 million tonnes in 2014 to 780 and 798 million tonnes in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Canada exports more emissions contained in resources than it emits. Per capita emissions intensity will fall by 14% between 2014 and 2050. Results are compared to climate targets and key areas of GHG mitigation potential are identified. Alberta’s oil and gas sector and Ontario’s transportation sector are the two single largest sectoral sources of emissions by 2050. This research can help policy makers, innovators, and the public better understand GHG emissions, which can lead to more effective GHG mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pressures on water resources due to changing climate, increasing demands, and enhanced recognition of environmental flow needs result in the need for hydrology information to support informed water allocation decisions. However, the absence of hydrometric measurements and limited access to hydrology information in many areas impairs water allocation decision‐making. This paper describes a water balance‐based modeling approach and an innovative web‐based decision‐support hydrology tool developed to address this need. Using high‐resolution climate, vegetation, and watershed data, a simple gridded water balance model, adjusted to account for locational variability, was developed and calibrated against gauged watersheds, to model mean annual runoff. Mean monthly runoff was modeled empirically, using multivariate regression. The modeled annual runoff results are within 20% of the observed mean annual discharge for 78% of the calibration watersheds, with a mean absolute error of 16%. Modeled monthly runoff corresponds well to observed monthly runoff, with a median Nash–Sutcliffe statistic of 0.92 and a median Spearman rank correlation statistic of 0.98. Monthly and annual flow estimates produced from the model are incorporated into a map‐ and watershed‐based decision‐support system referred to as the Northeast Water Tool, to provide critical information to decision makers and others on natural water supply, existing allocations, and the needs of the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper tests for the applicability of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis at the Canadian and provincial/territorial levels using greenhouse gas emissions as an indicator for environmental degradation. The hypothesis is tested using provincial and territorial panel data from 1990 to 2014. The results vary depending on the econometric estimation method. The pooled regression results are mixed, with the EKC hypothesis confirmed at the Canadian level and in half of the provinces and territories. However, the fixed-effects regression results confirm the EKC hypothesis at the Canadian level and in all provinces and territories. The results also highlight the significance of technological change and province/territory specific characteristics in determining the level of greenhouse gas emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quebec's forests represent 20% of Canadian forests and 2% of the world forests. Over the entire planet, forests play a major role in habitat preservation and in supplying goods and services to the population. However, climate change will have an impact on the forest through inter alia increased droughts, forest fires, warmer weather, and infestations. In this paper, we analyze the economic impact of climate change on the forest industry in Quebec over a 40-year period using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We find that the climate change effects will be relatively weak on most macroeconomic variables as agents adjust their behavior over time and factors are reallocated across sectors. We find that climate change could generate losses in gross domestic product of up to Can$300 million (0.12% of gross domestic product) at the end of a 40-year period for Quebec's economy. However, we find relatively more important effects within the sectors of the forest industry, with losses ranging from 3% to 7.5%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies and characterizes current knowledge on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability for Canada's northern coastline, outlining key research gaps. Warming temperatures and increased precipitation have been documented across the northern coast, with the rate of sea ice decline ranging from 2.9% to 10.4% per decade. Storm intensity and frequency is increasing, and permafrost is warming across the region. Many of these changes are projected to accelerate in the future, with in excess of 8 °C warming in winter possible under a high-emission scenario by 2081-2100. Vulnerability to these changes differs by region and community, a function of geographic location, nature of climate change impacts, and human factors. Capacity to manage climate change is high in some sectors, such as subsistence harvesting, but is being undermined by long-term societal changes. In other sectors, such as infrastructure and transportation, limitations in climate risk management capacity result in continuing high vulnerabilities. There is evidence that adaptation is taking place in response to experienced and projected impacts, although readiness for adaptation is challenged by limited resources, institutional capacity, and a need for support for adaptation across levels of government. Priority areas for future research include ( i) expanding the sectoral and geographic focus of understanding on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability; ( ii) integrating climatic and socio-economic projections into vulnerability and adaptation assessments; ( iii) developing an evidence base on adaptation options; and ( iv) monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation support. Cross-cutting themes for advancing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability research on the north coast more broadly include the need for greater emphasis on interdisciplinary approaches and cross-cultural collaborations, support for decision-orientated research, and focus on effective knowledge mobilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]