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The Greenland Ice Sheet is a leading contributor to global sea‐level rise because climate warming has enhanced surface meltwater runoff. Melt rates are particularly sensitive to air temperatures due to feedbacks with albedo. The primary melt‐albedo feedback, fluctuation of seasonal snowlines, however, is determined not only by melt but also by antecedent snowfall which could delay the onset of dark glacier ice exposure. Here we investigate the role of snowfall versus air temperatures on ice sheet melt‐albedo feedbacks using satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data. We find several lines of evidence that snowline fluctuations are driven primarily by air temperatures and that snowfall is a secondary control. First, standardized linear regressions indicate that the timing of glacier ice exposure is nearly twice as sensitive to air temperatures than antecedent snowfall. Second, in 74% of the ablation zone by area, winter snowfall rates are not significantly correlated with winter air temperatures. This relationship implies that ice sheet melt due to climate warming is unlikely to be compensated by higher snowfall rates in the ablation zone. Third, we find no significant change in snowfall rates in the ablation zone during our 1981–2021 study period. Our findings demonstrate that snowfall is unlikely to reduce future ice sheet melt and that ice sheet meltwater runoff should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Although given the importance of melt‐albedo feedbacks, ice sheet models that parameterize albedo or are coupled with regional climate models are likely to provide the most accurate projections of mass loss. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently losing mass because rates of mass loss (mainly due to surface meltwater runoff and iceberg discharge into the ocean) are higher than rates of mass gain (mainly due to snowfall). As the climate warms, rates of mass loss are expected to increase non‐linearly because rising air temperatures darken the surface, leading to more solar energy absorption, and more melting. The main process responsible for surface darkening is the exposure of dark glacier ice due to Greenland's seasonally evolving snowline. The position of the snowline is determined not only by summer melt but also by the thickness of the snowpack that accumulates during winter. In this study, we investigated whether summer melt or snowpack thickness was more important for determining the timing of glacier ice exposure using satellite remote sensing and climate model outputs. We found that the glacier ice exposure is much more sensitive to air temperatures than snowfall and that snowfall did not change in the ablation zone during the 1981–2021 study period. Our findings imply that snowfall is unlikely to reduce ice sheet mass loss and that meltwater runoff from the ice sheet should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Key Points: We investigate the extent to which antecedent snowfall versus summer air temperatures controls melt‐albedo feedbacksWe find that melt‐albedo feedbacks are primarily driven by air temperatures and that antecedent snowfall is of secondary importanceWe find little evidence that snowfall will compensate enhanced ice sheet melt due to climate warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall high on the Greenland Ice Sheet is an emerging phenomenon with consequences for the thermal and structural makeup of the surface layer. We document changes to Greenland's firn column due to a 4‐day cold‐season warm/rain event. Heavy precipitation occurred with a sudden 30°C increase in air temperature, reaching 0°C at 2,000 m elevation. Thermistor strings within the firn layer across a 35 km transect show rapid warming of 6°–23°C reaching depths of 2–10 m. Antecedent conditions governed the magnitude, duration, and depth‐distribution of sensible and latent heat added to the firn column. Heat fluxes from the firn layer required up to 8 weeks to recover to baseline, a significant fraction of the winter period. The amount of liquid water refrozen in the firn column was ∼20%–100% of the prior summer demonstrating the impact of extreme weather events on the ice sheet's evolution and runoff characteristics. Plain Language Summary: Based on measurements from a network of sensors installed on the Greenland Ice Sheet, we document changes in the firn layer (snow in transition to ice) due to a late Autumn extraordinary warm/rain event. After an extended period of cold‐season cooling of the firn, the event caused the firn layer to warm by 6°–23°C, mainly in one day, as rainwater and surface melt penetrated up to 6 m depth and refroze. The water added to the firn layer during this extreme weather event was ∼25%–100% of what was added during the entire previous summer melt season. The unusual timing of water input during the cold‐season likely altered the firn differently than summer input from melt or rain. Our results demonstrate that only a minor increase in the frequency and magnitude of similar rain events has potential for outsized impact on the thermal and density transformation of Greenland's firn layer which has implications for future runoff processes. Key Points: A cold‐season rainstorm on the Greenland Ice Sheet demonstrates outsized impact of extreme weather events on evolution of the firn layerFirn layer temperature quickly increased by up to 23°C, altering heat fluxes and requiring up to 2 months to thermally recoverThe liquid water refrozen within the firn layer was ∼20%–100% of the amount of water refrozen during the previous summer [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in ice‐sheet size impact atmospheric circulation, a phenomenon documented by models but constrained by few paleoclimate records. We present sub‐centennial‐scale records of summer temperature and summer precipitation hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) spanning 12–7 ka from a lake on Baffin Island. In a transient model simulation, winds in this region were controlled by the relative strength of the high‐pressure systems and associated anticyclonic circulation over the retreating Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. The correlation between summer temperature and precipitation δ2H proxy records changed from negative to positive at 9.8 ka. This correlation structure indicates a shift from alternating local and remote moisture, governed by the two ice‐sheet high‐pressure systems, to only remote moisture after 9.8 ka, governed by the strong Greenland high‐pressure system after the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreated. Such rapid atmospheric circulation changes may also occur in response to future, gradual ice‐sheet retreat. Plain Language Summary: Continental ice sheets alter atmospheric circulation, influencing global heat and moisture distribution. Records of atmospheric circulation during previous periods of ice‐sheet retreat can provide insights into the changes that are possible in the future. This study examines summer atmospheric circulation in Baffin Bay from 12,000 to 7,000 years ago, a period of dramatic ice‐sheet retreat. Precipitation isotopes reflect moisture source, which responds to changes in air temperature and atmospheric circulation. This study uses records of temperature and precipitation isotopes from the same sediment archive to tease apart the influence of temperature from that of atmospheric circulation. The precipitation isotopes in this record distinct changes in moisture sources, which a climate model simulation suggests was caused by retreating ice sheets. Before about 10 ka, when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) covered eastern Canada, summer winds in Baffin Bay shifted regularly between south and north, carrying air with unique temperature and precipitation isotope signatures. As the LIS retreated, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) remained relatively large and dominated atmospheric circulation, causing a rapid shift to southeasterly winds. As the GIS retreats in the future, atmospheric circulation may undergo similar rapid changes. Key Points: Summer precipitation isotopes in the Arctic reflect temperature and moisture transport historyPaired records of summer temperature and precipitation isotopes isolate the influence of temperature from that of transportMoisture delivery to the eastern Canadian Arctic changed dramatically due to Early Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Helheim Glacier, one of the largest marine‐terminating outlet glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet, underwent significant retreat and acceleration in the early 2000s, accounting for an appreciable proportion of the ice sheet's mass loss during that period. Using a range of remotely sensed datasets, we show that despite a subsequent readvance, the glacier has continued to lose mass and thin, and has retreated inland of the retracted position occupied in 2005. Critically, the near‐terminus is up to 100 m thinner than during 2005, and the front 5 km is within 25–50 m of flotation, with retrograde bed slopes extending several kilometers inland of the terminus. The neighboring Fenris and Midgard Glaciers have both undergone recent large‐scale and rapid retreat once their near‐terminus regions began to float, suggesting that under projected climate warming and associated glacier thinning, Helheim Glacier is poised to pass a threshold whereby the near‐terminus region will retreat rapidly. Plain Language Summary: A significant proportion of the Greenland Ice Sheet's contribution to global sea‐level rise is as a result of mass loss from its marine‐terminating glaciers. Helheim Glacier, located in southeast Greenland, is one of the largest and fastest‐flowing glaciers draining the Greenland Ice Sheet. During the early 2000s, Helheim Glacier underwent dramatic retreat and acceleration, but subsequently readvanced during relatively cooler conditions in 2006. However, persistently high ocean and atmospheric temperatures have meant that Helheim Glacier has in fact been continuously losing mass since 2003, despite this readvance. Here, we use a range of remotely sensed data to show that since 2014, Helheim Glacier has accelerated and retreated to a greater extent than occurred in 2003–2005. More importantly, as the glacier has been losing mass over the past two decades, it is currently much thinner than during its peak retreat in 2005. As the glacier continues to lose mass, it will pass a threshold whereby the ice will float and rapidly disintegrate. We observe that this process has already occurred at the glaciers neighboring Helheim Glacier, which are subject to the same climate forcing and thus provide an analogue for the future response of Helheim Glacier to continued warming. Key Points: Helheim Glacier is more retreated and the near‐terminus region is up to 100 m thinner than during its much‐reported dramatic retreat in 2005Helheim, one of Greenland's largest ice dischargers, is now more vulnerable than at any point since the Little Ice AgeHelheim's new configuration offers potential for sustained dynamic instability and a major contribution to global sea‐level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric changes have occurred over the Greenland region during the last century. Several studies have documented record‐levels of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) summer melt extent during the 2000s and 2010s, but relatively little work has been carried out to assess regional climatic changes in other seasons. Here, we focus on the less studied cold‐season (i.e., autumn and winter) climate, tracing the long‐term (1873–2013) variability of Greenland's air temperatures through analyses of coastal observations and model‐derived outlet glacier series and their linkages with North Atlantic sea ice, sea surface temperature (SST), and atmospheric circulation indices. Through a statistical framework, large amounts of west and south Greenland temperature variance (up to r2 ~ 50%) can be explained by the seasonally‐contemporaneous combination of the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; hereafter the combination of GBI and NAO is termed GBI). Lagged and concomitant regional sea‐ice concentration (SIC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) seasonal indices account for small amounts of residual air temperature variance (r2 < ~10%) relative to the GBI. The correlations between GBI and cold‐season temperatures are predominantly positive and statistically‐significant through time, while regional SIC conditions emerge as a significant covariate from the mid‐20th century through the conclusion of the study period. The inclusion of the cold‐season Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in multivariate analyses bolsters the air temperature variance explained by the North Atlantic regional predictors, suggesting the remote, background climate state is important to long‐term Greenland temperature variability. These findings imply that large‐scale tropospheric circulation has a strong control on surface temperature over Greenland through dynamic and thermodynamic impacts and stress the importance of understanding the evolving two‐way linkages between the North Atlantic marine and atmospheric environment in order to more accurately predict Greenland seasonal climate variability and change through the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice‐sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4)°C occurred from 1991–2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6–7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass‐balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972–2018 period, each 1°C of summer warming corresponds to ~(91) 116 Gt·yr−1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt·yr−1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0–6.6°C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5‐8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice‐dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea‐level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0–12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8–27 cm (mean 15 cm) "likely" model projection range reported by IPCC in 2019 (SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt‐albedo and melt‐elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) is used to investigate the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) under an idealized CO2 forcing scenario of 1% increase until stabilization at 4× pre‐industrial at model year 140. In this simulation, the SMB calculation is coupled with the atmospheric model, using a physically based surface energy balance scheme for melt, explicit calculation of snow albedo, and a realistic treatment of polar snow and firn compaction. By the end of the simulation (years 131–150), the SMB decreases with 994 Gt yr−1 with respect to the pre‐industrial SMB, which represents a sea‐level rise contribution of 2.8 mm yr−1. For a threshold of 2.7‐K global temperature increase with respect to pre‐industrial, the rate of expansion of the ablation area increases, the mass loss accelerates due to loss of refreezing capacity and accelerated melt, and the SMB becomes negative 6 years later. Before acceleration, longwave radiation is the most important contributor to increasing energy for melt. After acceleration, the large expansion of the ablation area strongly reduces surface albedo. This and much increased turbulent heat fluxes as the GrIS‐integrated summer surface temperature approaches melt point become the major sources of energy for melt. Plain Language Summary: The Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is the largest freshwater reservoir in the Northern Hemisphere, with the potential of raising sea levels with 7.1 m if fully melted. Here, we investigate the evolution of the GrIS under elevated levels of CO2 in a model with an advanced and coupled surface mass balance (SMB; the difference between mass gain and mass loss at the ice sheet surface) calculation. By the end of our simulation, the global mean temperature increases with 5.3 K, contributing to a sea‐level rise rate of 2.8 mm yr−1 from the GrIS surface. At a global temperature increase of 2.7 K, the rate of mass loss from the GrIS accelerates due to a darker ice sheet surface and much increased atmospheric temperatures over the GrIS. Key Points: GrIS surface mass loss accelerates for a global warming of 2.7 K through increased surface melt and loss of refreezing capacityLongwave radiation is the main contributor to melt increase before acceleration; albedo and turbulent fluxes add major contributions afterAnthropogenic‐forced atmospheric circulation changes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Greenland blocking index) partially reduce melt [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greenland ice sheet melt is a large contributor to rising global sea level and melt is dependent on surface air temperature. Arctic temperatures are strongly coupled to clouds but spatial connections between clouds and temperature have yet to be established across Greenland. By mapping spaceborne lidar measurements and surface observations, it is shown that radiatively opaque clouds generally coincide with anomalously warm near‐surface temperatures at Greenland sites. These results indicate that both temperatures over 0 °C as well as positive daily temperature anomalies relate to spatially extensive opaque cloud cover. While prior studies indicate that clouds enhance extreme melt events, this research shows that opaque cloud cover and surface warming are closely related across the Greenland ice sheet, particularly in the ablation region. These findings establish broadly the spatial relationships between opaque clouds and temperatures and demonstrate the importance of direct observations across Greenland. Plain Language Summary: Greenland ice sheet melt linked to temperatures is a large contributor to rising global sea level. Arctic temperatures are related to cloud cover but spatial changes in clouds and temperature for Greenland have yet to be quantified. Here we show that a specific type of clouds, determined by a measurement signature, coincide with warm temperatures at the Greenland surface. These results indicate that unusual occurrences of temperatures above 0 °C relate closely to cloud cover. While prior work has shown that clouds enhance extreme melt events, this research shows that cloud cover and surface warming are closely tied across the Greenland ice sheet, particularly in the regions of high mass loss. These findings establish the variability in clouds and demonstrate the importance of direct observations across Greenland. Key Points: Daily variability of opaque cloud cover and temperatures are closely linkedAnomalies in opaque clouds and temperatures are tied to circulation regimeThe largest positive anomalies in both opaque clouds and temperatures relate to days with southerly transport [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Establishing the timing of maximum Holocene warmth in the Arctic is critical for understanding global climate system response to external forcing. In Greenland, challenges in obtaining climate records that span the full Holocene have hampered efforts to robustly identify when the Holocene Thermal Maximum occurred. Reconstructing land‐based ice sheet history can fill this gap because these ice sheet regions respond sensitively to summer temperature. We synthesize new and published 10Be and 14C ages from southwest Greenland to map Greenland ice sheet margin positions from 12 to 7 ka and calculate retreat rates from 12 to 0 ka. We found that maximum Greenland ice sheet recession occurred between ~10.4 and 9.1 ka. Our reconstruction suggests that summer air temperatures in southwest Greenland were highest from ~10.4 to 9.1 ka, providing support for an early regional Holocene Thermal Maximum. These results can serve as benchmarks for comparison with ice sheet and climate model simulations. Plain Language Summary: As the climate warms, Arctic temperatures are expected to increase at a faster rate than the rest of the world. Previous research has determined that Arctic temperatures were several degrees Celsius higher than today at some point in the past 12,000 years, and understanding when this warm time occurred might give scientists important insights into Arctic climate conditions in the future. However, in Greenland, the timing of maximum warmth is not well defined because many existing climate reconstructions do not span all of the past 12,000 years. In this paper, we use the retreat rate of the western Greenland ice sheet to determine when the warmest time of the past 12,000 years occurred. This method is advantageous because (1) retreat rates of this part of the Greenland ice sheet are directly related to summer air temperature and (2) the retreat history of the western Greenland ice sheet retreat is well known. We bring together new and previously published data that relates to Greenland ice sheet change to calculate how quickly the ice sheet retreated between 12,000 years ago and the present. Using this information, we determined that the warmest time of the past 12,000 years occurred between about 10,400 and 9,100 years ago, which is several thousand years earlier than some previous estimates. These results can help improve computer simulations that are used to predict future changes in Arctic ice sheet extent, climate, and sea‐level. Key Points: We create a database of southwest Greenland ice sheet extents and retreat rates that can be used to assess ice sheet model performanceThe highest southwest Greenland ice sheet retreat rates occurred between 10,400 and 9,100 years agoOur record supports an early Holocene Thermal Maximum in southwest Greenland [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]