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Measurement error is pervasive in epidemiologic research. Epidemiologists often assume that mismeasurement of study variables is nondifferential with respect to other analytical variables and then rely on the heuristic that "nondifferential misclassification will bias estimates towards the null." However, there are many exceptions to the heuristic for which bias towards the null cannot be assumed. In this paper, we compile and characterize 7 exceptions to this rule and encourage analysts to take a more critical and nuanced approach to evaluating and discussing bias from nondifferential mismeasurement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulation methods are a powerful set of tools that can allow researchers to better characterize phenomena from the real world. As such, the ability to simulate data represents a critical set of skills that epidemiologists should use to better understand epidemiologic concepts and ensure that they have the tools to continue to self-teach even when their formal instruction ends. Simulation methods are not always taught in epidemiology methods courses, whereas causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) often are. Therefore, this paper details an approach to building simulations from DAGs and provides examples and code for learning to perform simulations. We recommend using very simple DAGs to learn the procedures and code necessary to set up a simulation that builds on key concepts frequently of interest to epidemiologists (e.g. mediation, confounding bias, M bias). We believe that following this approach will allow epidemiologists to gain confidence with a critical skill set that may in turn have a positive impact on how they conduct future epidemiologic studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider methods for generating draws of a binary random variable whose expectation conditional on covariates follows a logistic regression model with known covariate coefficients. We examine approximations for finding a "balancing intercept," that is, a value for the intercept of the logistic model that leads to a desired marginal expectation for the binary random variable. We show that a recently proposed analytical approximation can produce inaccurate results, especially when targeting more extreme marginal expectations or when the linear predictor of the regression model has high variance. We then formulate the balancing intercept as a solution to an integral equation, implement a numerical approximation for solving the equation based on Monte Carlo methods, and show that the approximation works well in practice. Our approach to the basic problem of the balancing intercept provides an example of a broadly applicable strategy for formulating and solving problems that arise in the design of simulation studies used to evaluate or teach epidemiologic methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data collected from a validation substudy permit calculation of a bias-adjusted estimate of effect that is expected to equal the estimate that would have been observed had the gold standard measurement been available for the entire study population. In this paper, we develop and apply a framework for adaptive validation to determine when sufficient validation data have been collected to yield a bias-adjusted effect estimate with a prespecified level of precision. Prespecified levels of precision are decided a priori by the investigator, based on the precision of the conventional estimate and allowing for wider confidence intervals that would still be substantively meaningful. We further present an applied example of the use of this method to address exposure misclassification in a study of transmasculine/transfeminine youth and self-harm. Our method provides a novel approach to effective and efficient estimation of classification parameters as validation data accrue, with emphasis on the precision of the bias-adjusted estimate. This method can be applied within the context of any parent epidemiologic study design in which validation data will be collected and modified to meet alternative criteria given specific study or validation study objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Passively generated cell-phone location ("mobility") data originally intended for commercial use has become frequently used in epidemiologic research, notably during the COVID-19 pandemic to study the impact of physical-distancing recommendations on aggregate population behavior (e.g., average daily mobility). Given the opaque nature of how individuals are selected into these datasets, researchers have cautioned that their use may give rise to selection bias, yet little guidance exists for assessing this potential threat to validity in mobility-data research. Through an example analysis of cell-phone-derived mobility data, we present a set of conditions to guide the assessment of selection bias in measures comparing aggregate mobility patterns over time and between groups.Methods: We specifically consider bias in measures comparing group-level mobility in the same group (difference, ratio, percent difference) and between groups (difference in differences, ratio of ratios, ratio of percent differences). We illustrate no-bias conditions in these measures through an example comparing block-group-level mobility between income groups in United States metro areas before (January 1st-March 10, 2020) and after (March 11th-April 19th, 2020) the day COVID-19 was declared a pandemic.Results: Within-group contrasts describing mobility over time, especially for the higher-income decile, were expected to be most resistant to bias during the example study period.Conclusions: The presented conditions can be used to assess the susceptibility to selection bias of group-level measures comparing mobility. Importantly, they can be used even without knowledge of the degree of bias in each group at each time point. We further highlight links between no-bias principles originating in epidemiology and economics, showing that certain assumptions (e.g., parallel trends) can apply to biases beyond their original application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational studies of oseltamivir use and influenza complications could suffer from residual confounding. Using negative control risk periods and a negative control outcome, we examined confounding control in a health-insurance-claims–based study of oseltamivir and influenza complications (pneumonia, all-cause hospitalization, and dispensing of an antibiotic). Within the Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System, we identified individuals aged ≥18 years who initiated oseltamivir use on the influenza diagnosis date versus those who did not, during 3 influenza seasons (2014–2017). We evaluated primary outcomes within the following 1–30 days (the primary risk period) and 61–90 days (the negative control period) and nonvertebral fractures (the negative control outcome) within days 1–30. We estimated propensity-score–matched risk ratios (RRs) per season. During the 2014–2015 influenza season, oseltamivir use was associated with a reduction in the risk of pneumonia (RR = 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70, 0.75) and all-cause hospitalization (RR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.55) in days 1–30. During days 61–90, estimates were near-null for pneumonia (RR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.15) and hospitalization (RR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.91, 0.98) but slightly increased for antibiotic dispensing (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.21). The RR for fractures was near-null (RR = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.20). Estimates for the 2016–2017 influenza season were comparable, while the 2015–2016 season had conflicting results. Our study suggests minimal residual confounding for specific outcomes, but results differed by season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Racial residential segregation is associated with multiple adverse health outcomes in Black individuals. Yet, the influence of structural racism and racial residential segregation on brain aging is less understood. In this study, we investigated the association between cumulative exposure to racial residential segregation over 25 years (1985–2010) in young adulthood, as measured by the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic, and year 25 measures of brain volume (cerebral, gray matter, white matter, and hippocampal volumes) in midlife. We studied 290 Black participants with available brain imaging data who were enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study, a prospective cohort study. CARDIA investigators originally recruited 2,637 Black participants aged 18–30 years from 4 field centers across the United States. We conducted analyses using marginal structural models, incorporating inverse probability of treatment weighting and inverse probability of censoring weighting. We found that compared with low/medium segregation, greater cumulative exposure to a high level of racial residential segregation throughout young adulthood was associated with smaller brain volumes in general (e.g. for cerebral volume, β = –0.08, 95% confidence interval: −0.15, −0.02) and with a more pronounced reduction in hippocampal volume, though results were not statistically significant. Our findings suggest that exposure to segregated neighborhoods may be associated with worse brain aging. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In their recent article, Ogburn et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2021;190(6):1142–1147) raised a cautionary tale for epidemiologic data fusion: Bias may occur if a variable that is completely missing in the primary data set is imputed according to a regression model estimated from an auxiliary data set. However, in some specific settings, a solution may exist. Focusing on a linear outcome regression model with a missing covariate, we show that the bias can be eliminated if the underlying imputation model for the missing covariate is nonlinear in the common variables measured in both data sets. Otherwise, we describe 2 alternative approaches existing in the data fusion literature that could partially resolve this issue: One fits the outcome model by leveraging an additional validation data set containing joint observations of the outcome and the missing covariate, and the other offers informative bounds for the outcome regression coefficients without using validation data. We justify these 3 methods in a linear outcome model and briefly discuss their extension to general settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Immortal time bias is common in observational studies but is typically described for pharmacoepidemiology studies where there is a delay between cohort entry and treatment initiation.Methods: This study used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and linked national mortality data in England from 2000 to 2019 to investigate immortal time bias for a specific life-long condition, intellectual disability. Life expectancy (Chiang's abridged life table approach) was compared for 33,867 exposed and 980,586 unexposed individuals aged 10+ years using five methods: (1) treating immortal time as observation time; (2) excluding time before date of first exposure diagnosis; (3) matching cohort entry to first exposure diagnosis; (4) excluding time before proxy date of inputting first exposure diagnosis (by the physician); and (5) treating exposure as a time-dependent measure.Results: When not considered in the design or analysis (Method 1), immortal time bias led to disproportionately high life expectancy for the exposed population during the first calendar period (additional years expected to live: 2000-2004: 65.6 [95% CI: 63.6,67.6]) compared to the later calendar periods (2005-2009: 59.9 [58.8,60.9]; 2010-2014: 58.0 [57.1,58.9]; 2015-2019: 58.2 [56.8,59.7]). Date of entry of diagnosis (Method 4) was unreliable in this CPRD cohort. The final methods (Method 2, 3 and 5) appeared to solve the main theoretical problem but residual bias may have remained.Conclusions: We conclude that immortal time bias is a significant issue for studies of life-long conditions that use electronic health record data and requires careful consideration of how clinical diagnoses are entered onto electronic health record systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: A growing area of research in epidemiology is the identification of health-related sibling spillover effects, or the effect of one individual's exposure on their sibling's outcome. The health within families may be confounded by unobserved factors, rendering identification of sibling spillovers challenging.Methods: We demonstrate a gain-score (fixed effects) regression method for identifying exposure-to-outcome spillover effects within sibling pairs in linear models. The method identifies the exposure-to-outcome spillover effect if only one sibling's exposure affects the other's outcome, and it identifies the difference between the spillover effects if both siblings' exposures affect the others' outcomes. The method fails with outcome-to-exposure spillover or with outcome-to-outcome spillover. Analytic results, Monte Carlo simulations, and a brief application demonstrate the method and its limitations.Results: We estimate the spillover effect of a child's preterm birth on an older sibling's literacy skills, measured by the Phonological Awareness Literacy Screening-Kindergarten test. We analyze 20,010 sibling pairs from a population-wide, Wisconsin-based (United States) birth cohort. Without covariate adjustment, we estimate that preterm birth modestly decreases an older sibling's test score.Conclusions: Gain-scores are a promising strategy for identifying exposure-to-outcome spillover effects in sibling pairs while controlling for sibling-invariant unobserved confounding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictors of opioid overdose death in neighborhoods are important to identify, both to understand characteristics of high-risk areas and to prioritize limited prevention and intervention resources. Machine learning methods could serve as a valuable tool for identifying neighborhood-level predictors. We examined statewide data on opioid overdose death from Rhode Island (log-transformed rates for 2016–2019) and 203 covariates from the American Community Survey for 742 US Census block groups. The analysis included a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm followed by variable importance rankings from a random forest algorithm. We employed double cross-validation, with 10 folds in the inner loop to train the model and 4 outer folds to assess predictive performance. The ranked variables included a range of dimensions of socioeconomic status, including education, income and wealth, residential stability, race/ethnicity, social isolation, and occupational status. The R 2 value of the model on testing data was 0.17. While many predictors of overdose death were in established domains (education, income, occupation), we also identified novel domains (residential stability, racial/ethnic distribution, and social isolation). Predictive modeling with machine learning can identify new neighborhood-level predictors of overdose in the continually evolving opioid epidemic and anticipate the neighborhoods at high risk of overdose mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To determine potential measurement error related to the assessment of lifetime discrimination, Van Dyke et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(3):370–378) investigated inconsistencies in reporting of racial, socioeconomic status, and sex discrimination over time among Black and White adults enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. The authors found that "ever" reports of discrimination (as assessed by the Experiences of Discrimination Scale) decreased over time and that populations who most experience discrimination (i.e. Black/African-American people, younger persons, persons of low socioeconomic status, and women) were often also the most likely to inconsistently report discrimination over the course of the study period (from 1992 to 2010). The authors have raised an important issue related to the potential underestimation of lifetime discrimination that may depend on when discrimination is assessed, as well as the social identity of individuals surveyed. With implications for health inequities, these findings highlight study design and methodological issues that should be addressed to accurately estimate the true burden discrimination places on health. In this commentary, we further illuminate potential methodological challenges and opportunities to consider when investigating the impact of discrimination on health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data-sharing improves epidemiologic research, but the sharing of data frustrates epidemiologic researchers. The inefficiencies of current methods and options for data-sharing are increasingly documented and easily understood by any study group that has shared its data and any researcher who has received shared data. In this issue of the Journal , Temprosa et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2021;191(1):147–158) describe how the Consortium of Metabolomics Studies (COMETS) developed and deployed a flexible analytical platform to eliminate key pain points in large-scale metabolomics research. COMETS Analytics includes an online tool, but its cloud computing and technology are the supporting rather than the leading actors in this script. The COMETS team identified the need to standardize diverse and inconsistent metabolomics and covariate data and models across its many participating cohort studies, and then developed a flexible tool that gave its member studies choices about how they wanted to meet the consortium's analytical requirements. Different specialties will have different specific research needs and will probably continue to use and develop an array of diverse analytical and technical solutions for their projects. COMETS Analytics shows how important—and enabling—the upstream attention to data standards and data consistency is to producing high-quality metabolomics, consortia-based, and large-scale epidemiology research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational epidemiologic studies typically face challenges of exposure measurement error and confounding. Consider an observational study of the association between a continuous exposure and an outcome, where the exposure variable of primary interest suffers from classical measurement error (i.e. the measured exposures are distributed around the true exposure with independent error). In the absence of exposure measurement error, it is widely recognized that one should control for confounders of the association of interest to obtain an unbiased estimate of the effect of that exposure on the outcome of interest. However, here we show that, in the presence of classical exposure measurement error, the net bias in an estimate of the association of interest may increase upon adjustment for confounders. We offer an analytical expression for calculating the change in net bias in an estimate of the association of interest upon adjustment for a confounder in the presence of classical exposure measurement error, and we illustrate this problem using simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effect measure modification is often evaluated using parametric models. These models, although efficient when correctly specified, make strong parametric assumptions. While nonparametric models avoid important functional form assumptions, they often require larger samples to achieve a given accuracy. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate performance tradeoffs between correctly specified parametric and nonparametric models to detect effect modification of a binary exposure by both binary and continuous modifiers. We evaluated generalized linear models and doubly robust (DR) estimators, with and without sample splitting. Continuous modifiers were modeled with cubic splines, fractional polynomials, and nonparametric DR-learner. For binary modifiers, generalized linear models showed the greatest power to detect effect modification, ranging from 0.42 to 1.00 in the worst and best scenario, respectively. Augmented inverse probability weighting had the lowest power, with an increase of 23% when using sample splitting. For continuous modifiers, the DR-learner was comparable to flexible parametric models in capturing quadratic and nonlinear monotonic functions. However, for nonlinear, nonmonotonic functions, the DR-learner had lower integrated bias than splines and fractional polynomials, with values of 141.3, 251.7, and 209.0, respectively. Our findings suggest comparable performance between nonparametric and correctly specified parametric models in evaluating effect modification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increasing number of recent studies have suggested that doubly robust estimators with cross-fitting should be used when estimating causal effects with machine learning methods. However, not all existing programs that implement doubly robust estimators support machine learning methods and cross-fitting, or provide estimates on multiplicative scales. To address these needs, we developed AIPW , a software package implementing augmented inverse probability weighting (AIPW) estimation of average causal effects in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). Key features of the AIPW package include cross-fitting and flexible covariate adjustment for observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). In this paper, we use a simulated RCT to illustrate implementation of the AIPW estimator. We also perform a simulation study to evaluate the performance of the AIPW package compared with other doubly robust implementations, including CausalGAM , npcausal , tmle , and tmle3. Our simulation showed that the AIPW package yields performance comparable to that of other programs. Furthermore, we also found that cross-fitting substantively decreases the bias and improves the confidence interval coverage for doubly robust estimators fitted with machine learning algorithms. Our findings suggest that the AIPW package can be a useful tool for estimating average causal effects with machine learning methods in RCTs and observational studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The change in estimate is a popular approach for selecting confounders in epidemiology. It is recommended in epidemiologic textbooks and articles over significance test of coefficients, but concerns have been raised concerning its validity. Few simulation studies have been conducted to investigate its performance. Methods: An extensive simulation study was realized to compare different implementations of the change in estimate method. The implementations were also compared when estimating the association of body mass index with diastolic blood pressure in the PROspective Québec Study on Work and Health. Results: All methods were susceptible to introduce important bias and to produce confidence intervals that included the true effect much less often than expected in at least some scenarios. Overall mixed results were obtained regarding the accuracy of estimators, as measured by the mean squared error. No implementation adequately differentiated confounders from non-confounders. In the real data analysis, none of the implementation decreased the estimated standard error. Conclusion: Based on these results, it is questionable whether change in estimate methods are beneficial in general, considering their low ability to improve the precision of estimates without introducing bias and inability to yield valid confidence intervals or to identify true confounders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lash et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2021;190(8):1604–1612) have presented detailed critiques of 3 bias analyses that they identify as "suboptimal." This identification raises the question of what "optimal" means for bias analysis, because it is practically impossible to do statistically optimal analyses of typical population studies—with or without bias analysis. At best the analysis can only attempt to satisfy practice guidelines and account for available information both within and outside the study. One should not expect a full accounting for all sources of uncertainty; hence, interval estimates and distributions for causal effects should never be treated as valid uncertainty assessments—they are instead only example analyses that follow from collections of often questionable assumptions. These observations reinforce those of Lash et al. and point to the need for more development of methods for judging bias-parameter distributions and utilization of available information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative bias analysis comprises the tools used to estimate the direction, magnitude, and uncertainty from systematic errors affecting epidemiologic research. Despite the availability of methods and tools, and guidance for good practices, few reports of epidemiologic research incorporate quantitative estimates of bias impacts. The lack of familiarity with bias analysis allows for the possibility of misuse, which is likely most often unintentional but could occasionally include intentional efforts to mislead. We identified 3 examples of suboptimal bias analysis, one for each common bias. For each, we describe the original research and its bias analysis, compare the bias analysis with good practices, and describe how the bias analysis and research findings might have been improved. We assert no motive to the suboptimal bias analysis by the original authors. Common shortcomings in the examples were lack of a clear bias model, computed example, and computing code; poor selection of the values assigned to the bias model's parameters; and little effort to understand the range of uncertainty associated with the bias. Until bias analysis becomes more common, community expectations for the presentation, explanation, and interpretation of bias analyses will remain unstable. Attention to good practices should improve quality, avoid errors, and discourage manipulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Machine learning is gaining prominence in the health sciences, where much of its use has focused on data-driven prediction. However, machine learning can also be embedded within causal analyses, potentially reducing biases arising from model misspecification. Using a question-and-answer format, we provide an introduction and orientation for epidemiologists interested in using machine learning but concerned about potential bias or loss of rigor due to use of "black box" models. We conclude with sample software code that may lower the barrier to entry to using these techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To extend previous simulations on the performance of propensity score (PS) weighting and trimming methods to settings without and with unmeasured confounding, Poisson outcomes, and various strengths of treatment prediction (PS c statistic), we simulated studies with a binary intended treatment T as a function of 4 measured covariates. We mimicked treatment withheld and last-resort treatment by adding 2 "unmeasured" dichotomous factors that directed treatment to change for some patients in both tails of the PS distribution. The number of outcomes Y was simulated as a Poisson function of T and confounders. We estimated the PS as a function of measured covariates and trimmed the tails of the PS distribution using 3 strategies ("Crump," "Stürmer," and "Walker"). After trimming and reestimation, we used alternative PS weights to estimate the treatment effect (rate ratio): inverse probability of treatment weighting, standardized mortality ratio (SMR)-treated, SMR-untreated, the average treatment effect in the overlap population (ATO), matching, and entropy. With no unmeasured confounding, the ATO (123%) and "Crump" trimming (112%) improved relative efficiency compared with untrimmed inverse probability of treatment weighting. With unmeasured confounding, untrimmed estimates were biased irrespective of weighting method, and only Stürmer and Walker trimming consistently reduced bias. In settings where unmeasured confounding (e.g. frailty) may lead physicians to withhold treatment, Stürmer and Walker trimming should be considered before primary analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New-user designs restricting to treatment initiators have become the preferred design for studying drug comparative safety and effectiveness using nonexperimental data. This design reduces confounding by indication and healthy-adherer bias at the cost of smaller study sizes and reduced external validity, particularly when assessing a newly approved treatment compared with standard treatment. The prevalent new-user design includes adopters of a new treatment who switched from or previously used standard treatment (i.e. the comparator), expanding study sample size and potentially broadening the study population for inference. Previous work has suggested the use of time-conditional propensity-score matching to mitigate prevalent user bias. In this study, we describe 3 "types" of initiators of a treatment: new users, direct switchers, and delayed switchers. Using these initiator types, we articulate the causal questions answered by the prevalent new-user design and compare them with those answered by the new-user design. We then show, using simulation, how conditioning on time since initiating the comparator (rather than full treatment history) can still result in a biased estimate of the treatment effect. When implemented properly, the prevalent new-user design estimates new and important causal effects distinct from the new-user design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Due to clinical and methodological diversity, clinical studies included in meta-analyses often differ in ways that lead to differences in treatment effects across studies. Meta-regression analysis is generally recommended to explore associations between study-level characteristics and treatment effect, however, three key pitfalls of meta-regression may lead to invalid conclusions. Our aims were to determine the frequency of these three pitfalls of meta-regression analyses, examine characteristics associated with the occurrence of these pitfalls, and explore changes between 2002 and 2012.Methods: A meta-epidemiological study of studies including aggregate data meta-regression analysis in the years 2002 and 2012. We assessed the prevalence of meta-regression analyses with at least 1 of 3 pitfalls: ecological fallacy, overfitting, and inappropriate methods to regress treatment effects against the risk of the analysed outcome. We used logistic regression to investigate study characteristics associated with pitfalls and examined differences between 2002 and 2012.Results: Our search yielded 580 studies with meta-analyses, of which 81 included meta-regression analyses with aggregated data. 57 meta-regression analyses were found to contain at least one pitfall (70%): 53 were susceptible to ecological fallacy (65%), 14 had a risk of overfitting (17%), and 5 inappropriately regressed treatment effects against the risk of the analysed outcome (6%). We found no difference in the prevalence of meta-regression analyses with methodological pitfalls between 2002 and 2012, nor any study-level characteristic that was clearly associated with the occurrence of any of the pitfalls.Conclusion: The majority of meta-regression analyses based on aggregate data contain methodological pitfalls that may result in misleading findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we aimed to estimate the causal effect of normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) on mortality among end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in the presence of time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure using g-estimation. Information about 553 ESRD patients was retrospectively collected over an 8-year period (2011–2019) from hemodialysis facilities in Kerman, Iran. nPCR was dichotomized as <1.2 g/kg/day versus ≥1.2 g/kg/day. Then a standard time-varying accelerated failure time (AFT) Weibull model was built, and results were compared with those generated by g-estimation. After appropriate adjustment for time-varying confounders, weighted g-estimation yielded 78% shorter survival time (95% confidence interval (95% CI): −81, −73) among patients with a continuous nPCR <1.2 g/kg/day than among those who had nPCR ≥1.2 g/kg/day during follow-up, though it was 18% (95% CI: −57, 54) in the Weibull model. Moreover, hazard ratio estimates of 4.56 (95% CI: 3.69, 5.37) and 1.20 (95% CI: 0.66, 2.17) were obtained via weighted g-estimation and the Weibull model, respectively. G-estimation indicated that inadequate dietary protein intake characterized by nPCR increases all-cause mortality among ESRD patients, but the Weibull model provided an effect estimate that was substantially biased toward the null. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Perinatal epidemiology research is concerned with identifying the effects of events during pregnancy on pregnancy outcomes that include maternal, fetal, and neonatal health outcomes. Randomized trials in perinatal research face many challenges, including randomization difficulties, ethical considerations, and inadequate statistical power due to the small number of subjects eligible for participation. For these reasons, most epidemiological studies conducted in this research field are observational and include different types of bias. This review describes the key methodological difficulties in the design and analysis of randomized and observational studies in perinatal epidemiology, and provides potential corrective approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although every emerging infectious disease occurs in a unique context, the behaviour of previous pandemics offers an insight into the medium- and long-term outcomes of the current threat. Where an informative historical analogue exists, epidemiologists and policymakers should consider how the insights of the past can inform current forecasts and responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To evaluate associations between spousal caregiving and mental and physical health among older adults in Mexico. Methods: Data come from the Mexican Health & Aging Study, a national population‐based study of adults ≥50 years and their spouses (2001–2015). We compared outcomes for spousal caregivers to outcomes for those whose spouses had difficulty with at least one basic or instrumental activity of daily living (I/ADL) but were not providing care; the control group conventionally includes all married respondents regardless of spouse's need for care. We used targeted maximum likelihood estimation to evaluate the associations with past‐week depressive symptoms, lower‐body functional limitations, and chronic health conditions. Results: At baseline, 846 women and 629 men had a spouse with ≥1 I/ADL. Of these, 60.9% of women and 52.6% of men were spousal caregivers. Spousal caregiving was associated with more past‐week depressive symptoms for men (Marginal Risk Difference (RD): 0.27, 95% confidence internal [CI]: 0.03, 0.51) and women (RD: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.23). We could not draw conclusions about associations with lower‐body functional limitations and chronic health conditions. On average, all respondents whose spouses had caregiving needs had poorer health than the overall sample. Conclusion: We found evidence of an association between spousal caregiving and mental health among older Mexican adults with spouses who had need for care. However, our findings suggest that older adults who are both currently providing or at risk of providing spousal care may need targeted programs and policies to support health and long‐term care needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Q fever is a zoonotic disease caused by the intracellular bacterium, Coxiella burnetii. Its primary mode of transmission is by inhalation of aerosols originating from infected animals and contaminated environments. The organism has a very low infective dose, can persist in the environment for long periods of time and large outbreaks fuelled by windborne spread have been previously reported. Detection of C. burnetii in the environment is therefore important during human and animal outbreak investigations and for the control and prevention of Q fever. This study aimed to systematically review and critically appraise the published literature on sampling methods used to detect C. burnetii from different environmental samples. A search of four electronic databases with subsequent hand searching identified 47 eligible articles published since 1935. These articles described sampling of dust, air, soil and liquids in attempts to detect C. burnetii during 19 Q fever outbreaks and in 28 endemic settings. Environmental positivity was most commonly associated with ruminant livestock populations. Evidence describing spatio‐temporal characteristics and associated geographical dispersion gradients was limited. The most commonly tested sample type was dust which also yielded the highest bacterial loads of >108 bacteria/cloth. The MD8 (Sartorius) air sampler was used widely for air sampling. Soil was the only sample type for which a validated laboratory protocol was established specifically for C. burnetii. Each environmental sample type has its advantages and limitations which are discussed in detail and a simplified framework to guide decisions around environmental sampling for C. burnetii is provided. In any type of environmental sampling, it is recommended to use standardized and validated methods and to match the most ideal sampling strategy and timing with the research context. These conditions are essential to be considered when designing future Q fever management plans that involve environmental sampling for C. burnetii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we aimed to estimate the causal effect of normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR) on mortality among end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in the presence of time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure using g-estimation. Information about 553 ESRD patients was retrospectively collected over an 8-year period (2011–2019) from hemodialysis facilities in Kerman, Iran. nPCR was dichotomized as <1.2 g/kg/day versus ≥1.2 g/kg/day. Then a standard time-varying accelerated failure time (AFT) Weibull model was built, and results were compared with those generated by g-estimation. After appropriate adjustment for time-varying confounders, weighted g-estimation yielded 78% shorter survival time (95% confidence interval (95% CI): −81, −73) among patients with a continuous nPCR <1.2 g/kg/day than among those who had nPCR ≥1.2 g/kg/day during follow-up, though it was 18% (95% CI: −57, 54) in the Weibull model. Moreover, hazard ratio estimates of 4.56 (95% CI: 3.69, 5.37) and 1.20 (95% CI: 0.66, 2.17) were obtained via weighted g-estimation and the Weibull model, respectively. G-estimation indicated that inadequate dietary protein intake characterized by nPCR increases all-cause mortality among ESRD patients, but the Weibull model provided an effect estimate that was substantially biased toward the null. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of medications. This review discusses a number of biases that may arise in such studies and proposes solutions to minimize them during the design or statistical analysis phase. We first describe designs to handle confounding by indication (e.g. active comparator design) and methods to investigate the influence of unmeasured confounding, such as the E-value, the use of negative control outcomes and control cohorts. We next discuss prevalent user and immortal time biases in pharmacoepidemiology research and how these can be prevented by focussing on incident users and applying either landmarking, using a time-varying exposure, or the cloning, censoring and weighting method. Lastly, we briefly discuss the common issues with missing data and misclassification bias. When these biases are properly accounted for, pharmacoepidemiological observational studies can provide valuable information for clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The continuum of resistance model's premise is that delayed respondents to a survey are more similar to non-respondents than early respondents are. For decades, survey researchers have applied this model in attempts to evaluate and adjust for non-response bias. Despite a recent resurgence in the model's popularity, its value has only been assessed in one large online population health survey.Methods: Respondents to the Norwegian Counties Public Health Survey in Hordaland, Norway, were divided into three groups: those who responded within 7 days of the initial email/SMS invitation (wave 1, n = 6950); those who responded after 8 to 14 days and 1 reminder (wave 2, n = 4950); and those who responded after 15 or more days and 2 reminders (wave 3, n = 4045). Logistic regression analyses were used to compare respondents' age, sex and educational level between waves, as well as the prevalence of poor general health, life dissatisfaction, mental distress, chronic health problems, weekly alcohol consumption, monthly binge drinking, daily smoking, physical activity, low social support and receipt of a disability pension.Results: The overall response to the survey was 41.5%. Respondents in wave 1 were more likely to be older, female and more highly educated than those in waves 2 and 3. However, there were no substantial differences between waves for any health outcomes, with a maximal prevalence difference of 2.6% for weekly alcohol consumption (wave 1: 21.3%, wave 3: 18.7%).Conclusions: There appeared to be a mild continuum of resistance for demographic variables. However, this was not reflected in health and related outcomes, which were uniformly similar across waves. The continuum of resistance model is unlikely to be useful to adjust for nonresponse bias in large online surveys of population health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suppose that an investigator wants to estimate an association between a continuous exposure variable and an outcome, adjusting for a set of confounders. If the exposure variable suffers classical measurement error, in which the measured exposures are distributed with independent error around the true exposure, then an estimate of the covariate-adjusted exposure-outcome association may be biased. We propose an approach to estimate a marginal exposure-outcome association in the setting of classical exposure measurement error using a disease score–based approach to standardization to the exposed sample. First, we show that the proposed marginal estimate of the exposure-outcome association will suffer less bias due to classical measurement error than the covariate-conditional estimate of association when the covariates are predictors of exposure. Second, we show that if an exposure validation study is available with which to assess exposure measurement error, then the proposed marginal estimate of the exposure-outcome association can be corrected for measurement error more efficiently than the covariate-conditional estimate of association. We illustrate both of these points using simulations and an empirical example using data from the Orinda Longitudinal Study of Myopia (California, 1989–2001). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early pregnancy weights are needed to quantify gestational weight gain accurately. Different methods have been used in previous studies to impute early-pregnancy weights. However, no studies have systematically compared imputed weight accuracy across different imputation techniques. This study aimed to compare four methodological approaches to imputing early-pregnancy weight, using repeated measures of pregnancy weights collected from two pregnancy cohorts in Tanzania.Methods: The mean gestational ages at enrollment were 17.8 weeks for Study I and 10.0 weeks for Study II. Given the gestational age distributions at enrollment, early-pregnancy weights were extrapolated for Study I and interpolated for Study II. The four imputation approaches included: (i) simple imputation based on the nearest measure, (ii) simple arithmetic imputation based on the nearest two measures, (iii) mixed-effects models, and (iv) marginal models with generalized estimating equations. For the mixed-effects model and the marginal model with generalized estimating equation methods, imputation accuracy was further compared across varying degrees of model flexibility by fitting splines and polynomial terms. Additional analyses included dropping third-trimester weights, adding covariate to the models, and log-transforming weight before imputation. Mean absolute error was used to quantify imputation accuracy.Results: Study I included 1472 women with 6272 weight measures; Study II included 2131 individuals with 11,775 weight measures. Among the four imputation approaches, mixed-effects models had the highest accuracy (smallest mean absolute error: 1.99 kg and 1.60 kg for Studies I and II, respectively), while the other three approaches showed similar degrees of accuracy. Depending on the underlying data structure, allowing appropriate degree of model flexibility and dropping remote pregnancy weight measures may further improve the imputation performance.Conclusions: Mixed-effects models had superior performance in imputing early-pregnancy weight compared to other commonly used strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Air pollution has been consistently linked with dementia and cognitive decline. However, it is unclear whether risk is accumulated through long-term exposure or whether there are sensitive/critical periods. A key barrier to clarifying this relationship is the dearth of historical air pollution data.Objective: To demonstrate the feasibility of modelling historical air pollution data and using them in epidemiologicalmodels.Methods: Using the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model, we modelled historical fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations for the years 1935, 1950, 1970, 1980, and 1990 and combined these with contemporary modelled data from 2001 to estimate life course exposure in 572 participants in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 with lifetime residential history recorded. Linear regression and latent growth models were constructed using cognitive ability (IQ) measured by the Moray House Test at the ages of 11, 70, 76, and 79 years to explore the effects of historical air pollution exposure. Covariates included sex, IQ at age 11 years, social class, and smoking.Results: Higher air pollution modelled for 1935 (when participants would have been in utero) was associated with worse change in IQ from age 11-70 years (β = -0.006, SE = 0.002, p = 0.03) but not cognitive trajectories from age 70-79 years (p > 0.05). There was no support for other critical/sensitive periods of exposure or an accumulation of risk (all p > 0.05).Conclusion: The life course paradigm is essential in understanding cognitive decline and this is the first study to examine life course air pollution exposure in relation to cognitive health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the coming transition to a postpandemic world where COVID-19 will likely remain as an endemic disease present a host of challenges and opportunities in epidemiologic research. The scale and universality of this disruption to life and health provide unique opportunities to study phenomena and health challenges in all branches of epidemiology, from the obvious infectious disease and social consequences to less clear impacts on chronic disease and cancer. If we are to both take advantage of the largest natural experiment of our lifetimes and provide evidence to inform the numerous public health and clinical decisions being made every day, we must act quickly to ask critical questions and develop new methods for answering them. In doing so, we should build on each of our strengths and expertise and try to provide new insights rather than become yet another voice commenting on the same set of questions with limited evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Laboratory-based animal research has revealed a number of exposures with multigenerational effects—ones that affect the children and grandchildren of those directly exposed. An important task for epidemiology is to investigate these relationships in human populations. Without the relative control achieved in laboratory settings, however, population-based studies of multigenerational associations have had to use a broader range of study designs. Current strategies to obtain multigenerational data include exploiting birth registries and existing cohort studies, ascertaining exposures within them, and measuring outcomes across multiple generations. In this paper, we describe the methodological challenges inherent to multigenerational studies in human populations. After outlining standard taxonomy to facilitate discussion of study designs and target exposure associations, we highlight the methodological issues, focusing on the interplay between study design, analysis strategy, and the fact that outcomes may be related to family size. In a simulation study, we show that different multigenerational designs lead to estimates of different exposure associations with distinct scientific interpretations. Nevertheless, target associations can be recovered by incorporating (possibly) auxiliary information, and we provide insights into choosing an appropriate target association. Finally, we identify areas requiring further methodological development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When estimating causal effects, careful handling of missing data is needed to avoid bias. Complete-case analysis is commonly used in epidemiologic analyses. Previous work has shown that covariate-stratified effect estimates from complete-case analysis are unbiased when missingness is independent of the outcome conditional on the exposure and covariates. Here, we assess the bias of complete-case analysis for adjusted marginal effects when confounding is present under various causal structures of missing data. We show that estimation of the marginal risk difference requires an unbiased estimate of the unconditional joint distribution of confounders and any other covariates required for conditional independence of missingness and outcome. The dependence of missing data on these covariates must be considered to obtain a valid estimate of the covariate distribution. If none of these covariates are effect-measure modifiers on the absolute scale, however, the marginal risk difference will equal the stratified risk differences and the complete-case analysis will be unbiased when the stratified effect estimates are unbiased. Estimation of unbiased marginal effects in complete-case analysis therefore requires close consideration of causal structure and effect-measure modification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on the relationship between adiposity and the onset of puberty is extensive, both in size and in the length of time this question has been alive in the biomedical literature. It is easy to wonder, then, whether there is anything new to be learned in this crowded field. In this issue of the Journal , Deardorff et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(1):7–16) show that it is still possible to innovate in this area. The authors report on the relationship between body mass index at age 5 years and a variety of markers of the onset of puberty. Consistent with the current literature, they show no association between body mass index at age 5 and pubertal onset in boys. They also show an association between obesity at age 5 with earlier onset of secondary sexual characteristics in girls, making an important subject-matter contribution that addresses many of the concerns of the existing literature in assigning causality. At the same time, the authors make an important, although less evident contribution to the practice of epidemiology for studies where the assessment of pubertal status is of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Large birth cohort studies are extremely valuable in assessing associations between early life exposures and long-term outcomes. Establishing new birth cohorts is challenging due to declining participation rates. Online methods of data collection may increase feasibility, but have not been evaluated thoroughly.Objective: The primary objective of the ongoing PRegnancy and Infant DEvelopment (PRIDE) Study is to identify exposures during pregnancy and in early life that may affect short-term or long-term health of mother and/or child. In this manuscript, we aimed to evaluate methods of recruitment and online data collection applied.Population: Dutch women aged ≥18 years in early pregnancy.Design: Prospective cohort study.Methods: Initially, only prenatal care providers recruited participants, but alternative recruitment methods were added as a result of disappointing participation rates, including collaboration with "Moeders voor Moeders" (organisation that visits women in early pregnancy) and Facebook advertisements. Data on demographic characteristics, obstetric history, maternal health, life style factors, occupational exposures, nutrition, pregnancy complications, and infant outcomes are primarily collected through Web-based questionnaires at multiple time points during and after pregnancy. Additional data collection components include paternal questionnaires, blood and saliva sampling, and linkage to medical records.Preliminary Results: By September 2019, 9573 women were included in the PRIDE Study, of which 1.3% completed paper-based questionnaires. Mean age of the women analysed was 30.6 years, 71.1% had a high level of education, 57.2% were primiparae, and mean gestational age at enrolment was 9.9 (range 3, 37) weeks, with slight differences between recruitment methods. Pregnancy outcome was known for 89.8%. Retention rate at 6 months after the estimated date of delivery was estimated at 70%. Multiple validation studies conducted within the PRIDE Study indicated high data quality.Conclusion(s): Although challenging and time-consuming, online methods for recruitment and data collection may enable the establishment of new birth cohort studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past century, the field of epidemiology has evolved and adapted to changing public health needs. Challenges include newly emerging public health concerns across broad and diverse content areas, new methods, and vast data sources. We recognize the need to engage and educate the next generation of epidemiologists and prepare them to tackle these issues of the 21st century. In this commentary, we suggest a skeleton framework upon which departments of epidemiology should build their curriculum. We propose domains that include applied epidemiology, biological and social determinants of health, communication, creativity and ability to collaborate and lead, statistical methods, and study design. We believe all students should gain skills across these domains to tackle the challenges posed to us. The aim is to train smart thinkers, not technicians, to embrace challenges and move the expanding field of epidemiology forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study quality depends on a number of factors, one of them being internal validity. Such validity can be affected by random and systematic error, the latter also known as bias. Both make it more difficult to assess a correct frequency or the true relationship between exposure and outcome. Where random error can be addressed by increasing the sample size, a systematic error in the design, the conduct or the reporting of a study is more problematic. In this article, we will focus on bias, discuss different types of selection bias (sampling bias, confounding by indication, incidence‐prevalence bias, attrition bias, collider stratification bias and publication bias) and information bias (recall bias, interviewer bias, observer bias and lead‐time bias), indicate the type of studies where they most frequently occur and provide suggestions for their prevention. SUMMARY AT A GLANCE: This article discusses the different types of selection bias and information bias that are found in studies, indicate the type of studies where they most frequently occur and proposes suggestions for their prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There has been much debate about the relative emphasis of the field of epidemiology on causal inference. We believe this debate does short shrift to the breadth of the field. Epidemiologists answer myriad questions that are not causal and hypothesize about and investigate causal relationships without estimating causal effects. Descriptive studies face significant and often overlooked inferential and interpretational challenges; we briefly articulate some of them and argue that a more detailed treatment of biases that affect single-sample estimation problems would benefit all types of epidemiologic studies. Lumping all questions about causality creates ambiguity about the utility of different conceptual models and causal frameworks; 2 distinct types of causal questions include 1) hypothesis generation and theorization about causal structures and 2) hypothesis-driven causal effect estimation. The potential outcomes framework and causal graph theory help efficiently and reliably guide epidemiologic studies designed to estimate a causal effect to best leverage prior data, avoid cognitive fallacies, minimize biases, and understand heterogeneity in treatment effects. Appropriate matching of theoretical frameworks to research questions can increase the rigor of epidemiologic research and increase the utility of such research to improve public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Little is known about the effect of drought on all-cause mortality, especially in higher income countries such as the United States. As the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase, understanding the connections between drought and mortality becomes increasingly important.Methods: Our exposure variable was an annual cumulative drought severity score based on the 1-month, county-level Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. The outcome variables of demographic subgroup-specific all-cause mortality count data per year were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System. Any counts below 10 deaths were censored in that demographic group per county. We modeled county-stratum-year mortality using interval-censored negative binomial regression with county-level random intercepts, for each combined age-race-sex stratum either with or without further stratification by climate regions. Fixed effects meta-regression was used to test the associations between age, race, sex, and region with the drought-mortality regression coefficients. Predictive margins were then calculated from the meta-regression model to estimate larger subgroup (e.g., 'race' or 'sex') associations of drought with mortality.Results: Most of the results were null for associations between drought severity and mortality, across joint strata of race, age, sex and region, but incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for 17 subgroups were significant after accounting for the multiple testing; ten were < 1 indicating a possible protective effect of drought on mortality for that particular subpopulation. The meta-regression indicated heterogeneity in the association of drought with mortality according to race, climate region, and age, but not by sex. Marginal means of the estimated log-incidence rate ratios differed significantly from zero for age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64; for the white race group; and for the South, West and Southwest regions, in the analysis that included wet county-years. The margin of the meta-regression model suggested a slightly negative, but not statistically significant, association of drought with same-year mortality in the overall population.Conclusions: There were significant, heterogeneous-direction associations in subpopulation-stratified models, after controlling for multiple comparisons, suggesting that the impacts of drought on mortality may not be monolithic across the United States. Meta-regression identified systematic differences in the associations of drought severity with all-cause mortality according to climate region, race, and age. These findings suggest there may be important contextual differences in the effects of drought severity on mortality, motivating further work focused on local mechanisms. We speculate that some of the estimated negative associations of drought severity with same-year mortality could be consistent with either a protective effect of drought on total mortality in the same year, or with a delayed health effect of drought beyond the same year. Further research is needed to clarify associations of drought with more specific causes of death and with sublethal health outcomes, for specific subpopulations, and considering lagged effects occurring beyond the same year as the drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background The risk of progression to tuberculosis (TB) disease is greatest soon after infection, yet disease may occur many years or decades later. However, rates of TB reactivation long after infection remain poorly quantified. Australia has a low incidence of TB and most cases occur among migrants. We explored how TB rates in Australian migrants varied with time from migration, age, and gender. Methods We combined TB notifications in census years 2006, 2011, and 2016 with time- and country-specific estimates of latent TB prevalences in migrant cohorts to quantify postmigration reactivation rates. Results During the census years, 3246 TB cases occurred among an estimated 2 084 000 migrants with latent TB. There were consistent trends in postmigration reactivation rates, which appeared to be dependent on both time from migration and age. Rates were lower in cohorts with increasing time, until at least 20 years from migration, and on this background there also appeared to be increasing rates during youth (15–24 years of age) and in those aged 70 years and above. Within 5 years of migration, annual reactivation rates were approximately 400 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval [UI] 320–480), dropping to 170 (UI 130–220) from 5 to 10 years and 110 (UI 70–160) from 10 to 20 years, then sustaining at 60–70 per 100 000 up to 60 years from migration. Rates varied depending on age at migration. Conclusions Postmigration reactivation rates appeared to show dependency on both time from migration and age. This approach to quantifying reactivation risks will enable evaluations of the potential impacts of TB control and elimination strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Clinical conditions leading to delivery are heterogeneous. However, most studies examining the short- and long-term consequences of birth on child health only consider gestational age at delivery, not the underlying cause.Objective: To examine the effect of both gestational age at delivery and underlying cause of delivery on child health outcomes.Methods: This population-based retrospective cohort study of singleton infants born in Alberta (April 2004-March 2005) used linked administrative and perinatal data to identify birth subtypes by underlying cause (infection/inflammation (I/I), placental dysfunction (PD), both, or neither), gestational age at delivery, and child health outcomes (neonatal morbidity and mortality, paediatric complex chronic conditions, and neurodevelopmental disorders and disabilities). Poisson regression with robust variance was used to assess differences in the (adjusted) risk ratio (RR) of each outcome by gestational age, and by cause of delivery. The roles of gestational age and cause of delivery were examined using mediation analysis methods.Results: A total of 38,192 children were included, with 66.7% experiencing neither I/I nor PD (I/I: 4.0%, PD: 27.5%, both: 1.8%). Infants born preterm had higher risk of all outcomes compared to those born at term and late-term. Infants with exposure to both causes had higher risk of all outcomes (neonatal morbidity, RR 8.96, 95% confidence interval [CI] 7.55, 10.63; paediatric complex chronic conditions, RR 3.94, 95% CI 3.08, 5.05; and neurodevelopmental disorders, RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.37, 1.84). The effect of underlying cause of delivery on child health outcomes was partially explained by gestational age, more in cases involving I/I than in those involving PD alone.Conclusions: Short- and long-term child health outcomes differ by the underlying cause leading to delivery, as well as the gestational age at delivery. Having a clearer prognosis for infants may promote the use of clinical interventions earlier for children at increased risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Aim. Cervical cancer is still an important public health problem in Belgrade. The aim of this study was to explore spatial patterns of cervical cancer, provision and accessibility of women's health service on the primary health care level in Belgrade, as well as the needs for improving cancer surveillance and preventive programs. Methods. This study applied a descriptive epidemiological method and a geographic information system based on data on cervical cancer diagnosed among female residents of Belgrade in 2006 and 2011. A map of the density of cases, with precise and complete data on the address of residence at the time of diagnosis, and a map of the distribution of gynecological practices in the primary health care in Belgrade, were generated through the process of georeferencing. Results. A total of 569 cases of cervical cancer were registered in 2006 and 2011, without significant differences. Significant associations were noticed for municipality of residence and year of diagnosis (x²= 42.99, df = 16, p = 0.000), and year of diagnosis and age groups 30-34 (p= 0.038, f = 3.998, df = 11, ANOVA), 40-44 (p = 0.001, f = 7.545 df = 13, ANOVA) and 45--49 (p = 0.046, f = 2.679, df = 15, ANOVA). The process of georeferencing covered a total of 466 (81.8%) cases with 97.4% of all cases diagnosed in 2006 and 68.6% in 2011. The generated maps showed similar spatial patterns of cases for both years: a higher density of cases with addresses in central parts of urban and suburban municipalities, as well as in parts of densely populated areas of urban municipalities. There was no regularity of grouping found for the cases in relation to the provision of women's health service, or of distance from the place of residence of cases to gynecological practices. Conclusion. Our results indicate possibilities for the perception of the spatial distribution of cervical cancer and needs for improving cancer surveillance and preventive programs on small geographical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiologic methods have advanced tremendously in the last several decades. As important as they are, even the most sophisticated approaches are unable to provide meaningful answers when the user lacks a clear study question. Yet, instructors have more and more resources on how to conduct studies and analyze data but few resources on how to ask clearly defined study questions that will guide those methods. Training programs have limited time for coursework, and if novel statistical estimation methods become the focus of instruction, programs that go this route may end up underemphasizing the process of asking good study questions, designing robust studies, considering potential biases in the collected data, and appropriately interpreting the results of the analysis. Given the demands for space in curricula, now is an appropriate time to reevaluate what we teach epidemiology doctoral students. We advocate that programs place a renewed focus on asking good study questions and following a comprehensive approach to study design and data analysis in which questions guide the choice of appropriate methods, helping us avoid methods for methods' sake and highlighting when application of a new method can provide the opportunity to answer questions that were intractable with traditional approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Little is known about how the physical environment impacts physical activity behaviour among rural populations, who are typically less active and at higher risk of chronic disease than urban dwellers. The lack of individual-level instruments to assess the physical environment in rural areas limits advancement of this field. Among rural adults, this study aimed to evaluate (a) the test-retest reliability of a self-reported questionnaire of individual-level perceptions of the physical activity environment, and (b) the stability of a self-reported physical activity questionnaire. Design: Cross-sectional questionnaire repeated twice, 2 weeks apart. The questionnaire included 94 items relating to the perceived physical environment (representing nine summary scores), demographic characteristics and physical activity. Setting: Rural Australia. Participants: Rurally residing adults (>18 years) across three Australian states. Main outcome measures: Test-retest reliability evaluated by weighted Kappa statistics (individual items) and intra-class correlations (summary scores). Results: A total of 292 participants (20% men) completed both questionnaires, on average 22 days apart. Test-retest reliability of individual items ranged from weighted Kappa 0.37-0.85 (median: 0.59). Internal reliability for five summary scores was good to excellent (Cronbach's alpha: 0.81-0.97). Test-retest reliability was good to excellent for six summary scores (intra-class correlations: 0.67-0.77). Conclusions: The findings indicated good to excellent test-retest reliability for most items, particularly "fixed" constructs for this new questionnaire measuring the perceived physical environment in rural populations. This study represents an important step towards improving measurement of physical activity environments in rural populations, potentially leading to better tailored interventions to promote active and healthy living in rural areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Previous studies have shown that acquiring a disability is associated with a reduction in mental health, but they have not considered the cumulative impact of having a disability on mental health. We used acquisition of a non-psychological disability to estimate the association of each additional year lived with disability on mental health (measured using the Mental Component Summary score of the Short Form Health Survey).Methods: We used the first 13 waves of data (years 2001-2013) from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. The sample included 4113 working-age (18-65 years) adults who were disability-free at waves 1 and 2. We fitted marginal structural models with inverse probability weights to estimate the association of each additional year of living with disability on mental health, employing multiple imputation to handle the missing data.Results: Of the 4113 participants, 7.7 percent acquired a disability. On average, each additional year lived with disability was associated with a decrease in the mean Mental Component Summary score (β = - 0.42; 95% CI - 0.71, - 0.14).Conclusions: This study provides evidence that each additional year lived with non-psychological disability is associated with a decline in mental health among working-age Australians. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The advent of very large cohort studies (n > 500 000) has given rise to prospective analyses of health outcomes being undertaken after short (<4 years) follow-up periods. However, these studies are potentially at risk of reverse causality bias. We investigated differences in the associations between self-reported physical activity and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and incident CVD, using different follow-up time cut-offs and methods to account for reverse causality bias.Methods: Data were from n = 452 933 UK Biobank participants, aged 38-73 years at baseline. Median available follow-up time was 7 years (for all-cause and CVD mortality) and 6.1 years (for incident CVD). We additionally analysed associations at 1-, 2- and 4-year cut-offs after baseline. We fit up to four models: (1) adjusting for prevalent CVD and cancer, (2) excluding prevalent disease, (3) and (4) Model 2 excluding incident cases in the first 12 and 24 months, respectively.Results: The strength of associations decreased as follow-up time cut-off increased. For all-cause mortality, Model 1 hazard ratios were 0.73 (0.69-0.78) after 1 year and 0.86 (0.84-0.87) after 7 years. Associations were weaker with increasing control for possible reverse causality. After 7-years follow-up, the hazard ratios were 0.86 (0.84-0.87) and 0.88 (0.86-0.90) for Models 1 and 4, respectively. Associations with CVD outcomes followed similar trends.Conclusions: As analyses with longer follow-up times and increased control for reverse causality showed weaker associations, there are implications for the decision about when to analyse a cohort study with ongoing data collection, the interpretation of study results and their contribution to meta-analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]