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South eastern Australia is a global warming hotspot, and is also home to ~70% of Australia's population and one of Australia's largest fisheries—the South East Scalefish and Shark Fishery. This fishery spans shelf to deep waters, subtropical to temperate waters, employs many gears, and interacts with over 100 species. Despite following best practice fisheries management principles, including taking an ecosystem perspective to overall fisheries interactions, management interventions have failed to arrest or recover the decline of some focal species. Using an Atlantis ecosystem model developed for the fishery over the past 20 years, this paper presents simulations that suggest climate change may be a major contributor to the trajectories seen for a number of species—such as jackass morwong (Nemadactylus macropterus), blue warehou (Seriolella brama), and gemfish (Rexea solandri). This kind of climate influence poses many challenges for fisheries management into the future, raising questions about what to do when climate change undermines or overrides fisheries management actions and objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the application and advantages of remote sensing, machine learning, and mid-infrared spectroscopy (MIR) as a popular proximal sensing spectroscopy tool in the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC). It underscores the practical implications and benefits of the integrated approach combining machine learning, remote sensing, and proximal sensing for SOC estimation and prediction across a range of applications, including comprehensive soil health mapping and carbon credit assessment. These advanced technologies offer a promising pathway, reducing costs and resource utilization while improving the precision of SOC estimation. We conducted a comparative analysis between MIR-predicted SOC values and laboratory-measured SOC values using 36 soil samples. The results demonstrate a strong fit (R² = 0.83), underscoring the potential of this integrated approach. While acknowledging that our analysis is based on a limited sample size, these initial findings offer promise and serve as a foundation for future research. We will be providing updates when we obtain more data. Furthermore, this paper explores the potential for commercialising these technologies in Australia, with the aim of helping farmers harness the advantages of carbon markets. Based on our study's findings, coupled with insights from the existing literature, we suggest that adopting this integrated SOC measurement approach could significantly benefit local economies, enhance farmers' ability to monitor changes in soil health, and promote sustainable agricultural practices. These outcomes align with global climate change mitigation efforts. Furthermore, our study's approach, supported by other research, offers a potential template for regions worldwide seeking similar solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exacerbation of wildfires, attributed to the effects of climate change, presents substantial risks to ecological systems, infrastructure, and human well-being. In the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to climate action, prioritizing the assessment and management of the occurrence and intensity of extensive wildfires is of utmost importance. In recent times, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and severity of widespread wildfires worldwide, affecting several locations, including Australia, Italy, and the United States of America. The presence of complex phenomena marked by limited predictability leads to significant negative impacts on biodiversity and human lives. The utilization of satellite-derived data with neural networks, such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), is a potentially advantageous approach for augmenting the monitoring capabilities of wildfires. This research examines the generalization capability of four neural network models, namely the fully connected (FC), one-dimensional (1D) CNN, two-dimensional (2D) CNN, and three-dimensional (3D) CNN model. Each model's performance, as measured by accuracy, recall, and F1 scores, is assessed through K-fold cross-validation. Subsequently, T-statistics and p-values are computed based on these metrics to conduct a statistical comparison among the different models, allowing us to quantify the degree of similarity or dissimilarity between them. By using training data from Australia and Sicily, the performances of the trained model are evaluated on the test dataset from Oregon. The results are promising, with cross-validation on the training dataset producing mean precision, recall, and F1 scores ranging between approximately 0.97 and 0.98. Especially, the fully connected model has superior generalization capabilities, whilst the 3D CNN offers more refined and less distorted classifications. However, certain issues, such as false fire detection and confusion between smoke and shadows, persist. The aforementioned methodologies offer significant perspectives on the capabilities of neural network technologies in supporting the detection and management of wildfires. These approaches address the crucial matter of domain transferability and the associated dependability of predictions in new regions. This study makes a valuable contribution to the ongoing efforts in climate change by assisting in monitoring and managing wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia has clear aspirations to become a major global exporter of hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels and as part of the drive to reduce CO2 emissions, as set out in the National Hydrogen Strategy released in 2019 jointly by the federal and state governments. In 2021, the Australian Energy Market Operator specified a grid forecast scenario for the first time entitled "hydrogen superpower". Not only does Australia hope to capitalise on the emerging demand for zero-carbon hydrogen in places like Japan and South Korea by establishing a new export industry, but it also needs to mitigate the built-in carbon risk of its export revenue from coal and LNG as major customers, such as Japan and South Korea, move to decarbonise their energy systems. This places hydrogen at the nexus of energy, climate change mitigation and economic growth, with implications for energy security. Much of the published literature on this topic concentrates on the details of what being a major hydrogen exporter will look like and what steps will need to be taken to achieve it. However, there appears to be a gap in the study of the implications for Australia's domestic energy system in terms of energy security and export economic vulnerability. The objective of this paper is to develop a conceptual framework for the implications of becoming a major hydrogen exporter on Australia's energy system. Various green hydrogen export scenarios for Australia were compared, and the most recent and comprehensive was selected as the basis for further examination for domestic energy system impacts. In this scenario, 248.5 GW of new renewable electricity generation capacity was estimated to be required by 2050 to produce the additional 867 TWh required for an electrolyser output of 2088 PJ of green hydrogen for export, which will comprise 55.9% of Australia's total electricity demand at that time. The characteristics of comparative export-oriented resources and their interactions with the domestic economy and energy system are then examined through the lens of the resource curse hypothesis, and the LNG and aluminium industries. These existing resource export frameworks are reviewed for applicability of specific factors to export-oriented green hydrogen production, with applicable factors then compiled into a novel conceptual framework for exporter domestic implications from large-scale exports of green hydrogen. The green hydrogen export superpower (2050) scenario is then quantitatively assessed using the established indicators for energy exporter vulnerability and domestic energy security, comparing it to Australia's 2019 energy exports profile. This assessment finds that in almost all factors, exporter vulnerability is reduced, and domestic energy security is enhanced by the transition from fossil fuel exports to green hydrogen, with the exception of an increase in exposure of the domestic energy system to international market forces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past research has stressed the role of age and generation in climate change discourse, worries, and willingness to act. Therefore, the present paper aimed to examine the role of chronological age (as an arbitrary factor, which represents ageism) in lay people's climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Two experiments in different countries, Australia and Israel, were conducted for this purpose. The first study examined the impact of the age of the speaker, who provides information about the climate crisis and the second examined the impact of the age of the group being blamed for the situation. Outcome variables included perceived responsibility and motivation for the current climate situation in study 1 and perceived climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions in study 2. In study 1 (n = 250, Australia), the age of the speaker, a climate activist, varied randomly to test the hypothesis that a younger activist would be more influential and increase motivation and responsibility to act compared to an older activist. In study 2 (n = 179, Israel), the age (young vs. old) of the group identified as being responsible for the climate crisis varied randomly, to test the hypothesis that people would be more willing to identify older people as being responsible for the current climate situation, and this would impact climate change-related attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions. Both studies resulted in null effects. Additionally, there was no interaction between the age of the respondent and the age of the source of the message or the age group being blamed by the message. The present study has failed to show that strategies that emphasize intergenerational conflict and ageism impact people's attitudes, feelings, and behavioral intentions towards the current climate situation. This possibly can serve as an instigator for strategies that emphasize intergenerational solidarity, rather than conflict, as a guiding principle in future campaigns that advocate climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of sea level rise is extremely important for improved future climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study uses a hybrid convolutional neural Network (CNN) and a bidirectional long short-term (BiLSTM) model with successive variational mode decomposition (SVMD) to predict the absolute sea level for two study sites in Australia (Port Kembla and Milner Bay). More importantly, the sea level measurements using a tide gauge were corrected using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements of the vertical land movement (VLM). The SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model was benchmarked by a multi-layer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR) and gradient boosting (GB). The SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model outperformed all the comparative models with high correlation values of more than 0.95 for Port Kembla and Milner Bay. Similarly, the SVMD-CNN-BiLSTM model achieved the highest values for the Willmott index, the Nash–Sutcliffe index and the Legates and McCabe index for both study sites. The projected linear trend showed the expected annual mean sea rise for 2030. Using the current trend, Port Kembla was projected to have an MSL value of 1.03 m with a rate rise of approx. 4.5 mm/year. The rate of the MSL for Milner Bay was comparatively lower with a value of approx. 2.75 mm/year and an expected MSL value of 1.27 m for the year 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Climate change is impacting the health of individuals worldwide. At the same time, the healthcare sector contributes to carbon emissions. In Australia, healthcare contributes 7% of the country's carbon footprint. Research into the environmental impact and mitigation of carbon emissions in primary care is an emerging area. Objective To explore staff perspectives on facilitators and barriers to environmental sustainability in 3 Australian general practices seeking to reduce their environmental impact. Methods We used a qualitative, case-study approach, conducting 23 semistructured interviews with staff across the 3 practices including nurses, administrative staff, and doctors. Observation of systems and staff behaviour relating to environmental sustainability was undertaken at 1 practice. Thematic analysis was conducted to determine themes relating to factors influencing the implementation of environmentally sustainable initiatives within practice settings. Results Climate mitigation efforts raised by participants were largely focussed on energy and waste reduction, rather than prescribing pharmaceuticals and staff and patient transport. Three main factors influencing change towards sustainable practice were identified: "Leadership," "Staff Engagement and Workplace Culture," and "Concomitant Benefits." A leadership team and workplace culture that valued environmental sustainability were found to be important facilitators, as were concomitant benefits, in particular financial savings. Barriers included what interviewees described as a lack of knowledge about initiatives with the highest impact, lack of understanding described by staff of the evidence behind particular initiatives, waning staff engagement and infection control concerns. Conclusions Our research highlights several important factors that contribute to the implementation of intended environmentally sustainable initiatives in these 3 practices. Further education, research and high-level policy guidance on the potential environmental impact of prescribing pharmaceuticals, staff and patient transport and unnecessary tests and treatments are recommended to further promote environmental sustainability in primary care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While an astronomer's job is typically to look out from Earth, the seriousness of the climate crisis has meant a shift in many astronomers' focus. Astronomers are starting to consider how our resource requirements may contribute to this crisis and how we may better conduct our research in a more environmentally sustainable fashion. Astronomers for Planet Earth is an international organisation (more than 1,700 members from over 70 countries as of November 2022) that seeks to answer the call for sustainability to be at the heart of astronomers' practices. In this article, we review the organisation's history, summarising the proactive, collaborative efforts and research into astronomy sustainability conducted by its members. We update the state of affairs with respect to the carbon footprint of astronomy research, noting an improvement in renewable energy powering supercomputing facilities in Australia, reducing that component of our footprint by a factor of 2-3. We discuss how, despite accelerated changes made throughout the pandemic, we still must address the format of our meetings. Using recent annual meetings of the Australian and European astronomical societies as examples, we demonstrate that the more online-focussed a meeting is, the greater its attendance and the lower its emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While coral reefs in Australia have historically been a showcase of conventional management informed by research, recent declines in coral cover have triggered efforts to innovate and integrate intervention and restoration actions into management frameworks. Here we outline the multi-faceted intervention approaches that have developed in Australia since 2017, from newly implemented in-water programs, research to enhance coral resilience and investigations into socio-economic perspectives on restoration goals. We describe in-water projects using coral gardening, substrate stabilisation, coral repositioning, macro-algae removal, and larval-based restoration techniques. Three areas of research focus are also presented to illustrate the breadth of Australian research on coral restoration, (1) the transdisciplinary Reef Restoration and Adaptation Program (RRAP), one of the world's largest research and development programs focused on coral reefs, (2) interventions to enhance coral performance under climate change, and (3) research into socio-cultural perspectives. Together, these projects and the recent research focus reflect an increasing urgency for action to confront the coral reef crisis, develop new and additional tools to manage coral reefs, and the consequent increase in funding opportunities and management appetite for implementation. The rapid progress in trialling and deploying coral restoration in Australia builds on decades of overseas experience, and advances in research and development are showing positive signs that coral restoration can be a valuable tool to improve resilience at local scales (i.e., high early survival rates across a variety of methods and coral species, strong community engagement with local stakeholders). RRAP is focused on creating interventions to help coral reefs at multiple scales, from micro scales (i.e., interventions targeting small areas within a specific reef site) to large scales (i.e., interventions targeting core ecosystem function and social-economic values at multiple select sites across the Great Barrier Reef) to resist, adapt to and recover from the impacts of climate change. None of these interventions aim to single-handedly restore the entirety of the Great Barrier Reef, nor do they negate the importance of urgent climate change mitigation action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development and refinement of methods for estimating organic carbon accumulation in biomass and soils during mangrove restoration and rehabilitation can encourage uptake of restoration projects for their ecosystem services, including those of climate change mitigation, or blue carbon. To support the development of a blue carbon method for Australia under the Emission Reduction Fund scheme we investigated; (1) whether carbon accumulation data from natural mangroves could be used to estimate carbon accumulation during restoration; (2) modeling mangrove biomass accumulation; and (3) how modeled carbon accumulation could be achieved over heterogeneous sites. First, we assessed carbon accumulation in soil and biomass pools from the global literature, finding that estimating carbon accumulation using data from natural mangroves provided similar estimates as those for restored or rehabilitated mangroves. We assessed mangrove biomass accumulation from global chronosequence studies, which we used to develop regional models for estimating biomass accumulation with restoration in Australia using values from local natural mangroves. Estimating biomass carbon accumulation using site‐based means of stand biomass provided similar estimates as values estimated through use of regional means values stratified by elevation; and reduced overestimates of biomass carbon accumulation that were based on regional mean values. Modeling soil carbon accumulation over environmentally heterogeneous project sites can apply a similar approach, stratifying over variation in site elevation. Our analysis provides a strategy for modeling blue carbon pools for an Australian blue carbon method that accommodates regional differences and is based on data from natural mangroves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is now clearly recognised as a source of financial risk for private sector actors. In Anglo-American jurisdictions like Australia, corporate law and prudential regulatory frameworks contain obligations to identify, disclose and manage material financial risks that can be applied to climate-related risks. These legal frameworks have served as a foundation for the emergence of a range of private regulatory initiatives which seek to develop and apply best practice standards for climate risk disclosure and management, and which involve a range of different actors in driving the uptake of, and seeking to enforce, these standards. This paper explores the body of emerging private climate risk regulation, focusing particularly on the central organising theme of these initiatives: aligning private climate risk management to the climate mitigation goals of the international Paris Agreement. It outlines the way in which Paris-alignment and net-zero emissions are emerging as new norms guiding private sector approaches to climate change and explores how this interacts with and builds on essentially climateneutral, risk-based corporate law and prudential regulatory frameworks. While there is considerable potential in Australia for Paris-aligned private risk management to contribute meaningfully to achieving international climate mitigation goals, there are also well-founded concerns about the effectiveness of these private measures that require further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The soil security concept has been put forward to maintain and improve soil resources inter alia to provide food, clean water, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and to protect ecosystems. A provisional framework suggested indicators for the soil security dimensions, and a methodology to achieve a quantification. In this study, we illustrate the framework for the function soil carbon storage and the two dimensions of soil capacity and soil condition. The methodology consists of (i) the selection and quantification of a small set of soil indicators for capacity and condition, (ii) the transformation of indicator values to unitless utility values via expert-generated utility graphs, and (iii) a two-level aggregation of the utility values by soil profile and by dimension. For capacity, we used a set of three indicators: total organic and inorganic carbon content and mineral associated organic carbon in the fine fraction (MAOC) estimated via their reference value using existing maps of pedogenons and current landuse to identify areas of remnant genosoils (total organic and inorganic carbon) and the 90th percentile for MAOC. For condition we used the same set of indicators, but this time using the estimated current value and comparing with their reference-state values (calculated for capacity). The methodology was applied to the whole of Australia at a spatial resolution of 90 m × 90 m. The results show that the unitless indicator values supporting the function varied greatly in Australia. Aggregation of the indicators into the two dimensions of capacity and condition revealed that most of Australia has a relatively low capacity to support the function, but that most soils are in a generally good condition relative to that capacity, with some exceptions in agricultural areas, although more sampling of the remnant genosoils is required for corroboration and improvement. The maps of capacity and condition may serve as a basis to estimate a spatially-explicit local index of Australia's soil resilience to the threat of decarbonization. • Methodology based on the soil security assessment framework. • Quantification of the capacity and condition of the soil to store carbon. • Spatial estimation of the utility to support carbon storage for three indicators. • Australia has low capacity, but overall good condition to store carbon. • Intensive up-to-date sampling is required to corroborate the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following a series of mass-bleaching events that have seriously degraded coral reefs, notably the Great Barrier Reef of Australia, a common narrative is now dominating the discourse, according to which "the only sure way to save the world's coral reefs is climate change mitigation". However, climate change is not a sole stressor. Most coral reefs around the world are threatened by a myriad of local stressors, including overfishing, destructive fishing, untreated sewage, agriculture effluents (nutrients and pesticides), and siltation due to deforestation. Reefs will not survive the severe effects of this plethora of stressors while waiting until we mitigate climate change. In order to safeguard reefs, we need to adopt a new narrative—"there are diverse ways in which we can improve the chances of saving coral reefs"—by acting now to: (i) improve their local protection and marine protected area networks, (ii) alleviate their critical local stressors, (iii) restore degraded and damaged reefs, and (iv) promote reef resilience and adaptation (e.g. adaptation networks, assisted evolution) to the changing conditions, notably climate change effects. It is time for us to move on from the impractical goals of the climate change narrative ("interventions beyond our field of expertise") to building up resilience and adaptation of social-ecological systems of coral reefs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Understanding carbon emissions embodied in trade is an important prerequisite for the effective formulation of climate mitigation policies. Based on input–output analysis and panel regression models, this study proposes a multi-step forecasting procedure to simulate carbon emissions embodied in bilateral trade. We calculate carbon emissions embodied in the trade between China and Australia during 2000–2014 and forecast the same for the period 2015–2022 under four different development scenarios. The results show that, during 2000–2014, net carbon outflow from China to Australia increased from 2.2 to 15.5 Mt CO 2 , concentrated in textile and heavy manufacturing sectors. The simulation results show that, the forecasts of "R&D focus" and "GDP focus" scenarios constitute the lower and upper bounds of embodied emissions, and the latter is more than two times of the former in 2022 both for embodied emissions in Australia's exports and China's exports. Finally, conclusions are drawn and policy implications are discussed. Highlights • A multi-step forecasting procedure of carbon emissions embodied in trade is proposed. • Carbon emissions embodied in China–Australia trade during 2000–2014 are analyzed. • A scenario analysis is conducted for emissions embodied in China–Australia trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The study aimed to identify diurnal indoor temperature patterns and quantify the impact of outdoor on indoor temperature as well as of other modifying factors. Indoor and outdoor temperatures of 77 houses in Brisbane, Australia were monitored with temperature sensors for one year (May 2017–2018). A linear mixed effect model predicted that on average, a 1°C increase in outdoor temperature resulted in a 0.41°C increase in indoor temperature during both the cool and warm seasons. The age of the house, building material, roof material and insulation had a moderate influence on indoor temperature. Queenslander houses (a stand-alone timber structure mounted on stumps with an extensive veranda) were, in general, cooler (0.5°C cooler in winter) and reactive (meaning, having a strong association with the outdoor temperature), while slab-on-ground houses were, in general, warmer (0.3°C) and stable (meaning, having less association with the outdoor temperature). From the indoor temperature patterns identified for the heated and cooled houses it was concluded that in this climate, heating and cooling is seldom done for 24 h. This quantitative information is crucial for understanding the influence of temperature on human health and household energy consumption at the time when climate change mitigation approaches are being discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Non-optimal ambient temperature has detrimental impacts on mortality worldwide, but little is known about the difference in population vulnerability to non-optimal temperature and temperature-related morbidity burden between developing and developed countries. Objectives We estimated and compared the associations of emergency department visits (EDV) with non-optimal temperature in terms of risk trigger temperature, the average slope of exposure-risk function and attributable risk in 12 cities from China and Australia. Methods We modelled the associations of EDV with heat during warm season and with cold during cold season, separately, using generalized additive model. Population vulnerability within a given region was quantified with multiple risk trigger points including minimum risk temperature, increasing risk temperature and excessive risk temperature, and average coefficient of exposure-risk function. Fraction of EDV attributable to heat and cold was also calculated. Results We found large between- and within-country contrasts in the identified multiple risk trigger temperatures, with higher heat and cold trigger points, except excessive risk temperature, observed in Australia than in China. Heat was associated with a relative risk (RR) of 1.009 [95% confidence interval (CI):1.007, 1.011] in China, which accounted for 5.9% of EDV. Higher RR of heat was observed in Australia (1.014, 95% CI: 1.010, 1.018), responsible for 4.0% of EDV. For cold effects, the RR was similar between two countries, but the attributable fraction was higher in China (9.6%) than in Australia (1.5%). Conclusions Exposure to heat and cold had adverse but divergent impacts on EDV in China and Australia. Further mitigation policy efforts incorporating region-specific population vulnerability to temperature impacts are necessary in both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although planning and policy instruments are important for climate change adaptation, the implementation of these measures is critical for success. This paper studies different climate change adaptation strategies by analysing the measures adopted by stakeholders in charge of government policy development and implementation to minimise the impacts of climate change in the northern tropical region of Queensland, Australia. Local government organisations are responsible for taking a leading role in climate change adaptation. State and commonwealth government agencies are primarily responsible for developing climate transition policies and guidelines, as well as providing limited financial aid to help support the local government. Interviews were conducted with local government practitioners identified from different local government authorities in the study region. Although all the government bodies made some progress in developing better climate change adaptation policies, the interview participants identified that a lot more needs to be done, especially in implementation, including devising and the application of relevant action plans, economic assessments, stakeholder participations and engagement. From a local government practitioners' viewpoint, both the water sector and local economy will face the highest immediate impacts if climate change adaptation actions are not adequately implemented at local government level in the study region. There are currently no notable legal bindings to address climate change risks in the region. In addition, financial liability assessments due to climate risks and cost-share mechanisms among different levels of stakeholders and government authorities to face and prepare for climate change impacts hardly exist. Although the interview respondents recognise their high importance. As there are uncertainties in the achievements of climate change adaptation plans, from a local government practitioners' standpoint, the local authorities should take appropriate actions to integrate adaptation and mitigation works to face and prepare for climate risks rather than focusing only on adaptation. The respondents informed that some work has been done to identify flood prone areas and a few policy documents exist that accommodate sea level rise in planning practice, but these are done in fragments with no holistic implementation, monitoring or evaluation plans put in place. • Climate change adaptation actions are urgently needed. • The priorities and perceptions of government professionals are key to success. • Stakeholders needs to be engaged to formulate adaptation strategies. • Holistic implementation, monitoring or evaluation plans are important for success. • Climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are suggested to be integrated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prediction of future drought is an effective mitigation tool for assessing adverse consequences of drought events on vital water resources, agriculture, ecosystems and hydrology. Data-driven model predictions using machine learning algorithms are promising tenets for these purposes as they require less developmental time, minimal inputs and are relatively less complex than the dynamic or physical model. This paper authenticates a computationally simple, fast and efficient non-linear algorithm known as extreme learning machine (ELM) for the prediction of Effective Drought Index (EDI) in eastern Australia using input data trained from 1957–2008 and the monthly EDI predicted over the period 2009–2011. The predictive variables for the ELM model were the rainfall and mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures, supplemented by the large-scale climate mode indices of interest as regression covariates, namely the Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and the Indian Ocean Dipole moment. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed data-driven model a performance comparison in terms of the prediction capabilities and learning speeds was conducted between the proposed ELM algorithm and the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm trained with Levenberg–Marquardt back propagation. The prediction metrics certified an excellent performance of the ELM over the ANN model for the overall test sites, thus yielding Mean Absolute Errors, Root-Mean Square Errors, Coefficients of Determination and Willmott's Indices of Agreement of 0.277, 0.008, 0.892 and 0.93 (for ELM) and 0.602, 0.172, 0.578 and 0.92 (for ANN) models. Moreover, the ELM model was executed with learning speed 32 times faster and training speed 6.1 times faster than the ANN model. An improvement in the prediction capability of the drought duration and severity by the ELM model was achieved. Based on these results we aver that out of the two machine learning algorithms tested, the ELM was the more expeditious tool for prediction of drought and its related properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing interest in including blue carbon ecosystems (i.e., mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) in climate mitigation programs in national and sub-national policies, with restoration and conservation of these ecosystems identified as potential activities to increase carbon accumulation through time. However, there is still a gap on the spatial scales needed to produce carbon offsets comparable with terrestrial or agricultural ecosystems. Here, we used the Coastal Blue Carbon InVEST 3.7.0 model to estimate future net carbon sequestration in blue carbon ecosystems along Australia's Great Barrier Reef (hereafter GBR) catchments, considering different management scenarios (i.e., reintroduction of tidal exchange through the removal of barriers, sea level rise, restoring low lying land) at three different spatial scales: whole GBR coastline, regional (14,000–16,300 ha), and local (335–370 ha) scales. The focus of the restoration (i.e., tidal marshes and/or mangroves) was dependent on data availability for each scenario. Furthermore, we also estimated the monetary value of carbon sequestration under each management scenario and spatial scale assessed in the study. We found that large scale restoration of tidal marshes could potentially sequester an additional ∼800,000 tonnes of CO 2 e by 2045 (potentially generating AU$12 million based on the average Australia carbon price), with greater opportunities when sea level rise is accounted for in the modelling. Also, we found that regional and local projects would generate up to 23 tonnes CO 2 e ha−1 by the end of the crediting period. Our results can guide future decisions in the blue carbon market and financing schemes, however, the return on investment is dependent on the carbon price and funding scheme available for project implementation. • Blue carbon farming can help national climate mitigation efforts. • Spatially explicit maps of net carbon sequestration were developed for different management scenarios. • Large-scale restoration of tidal marshes could sequester an additional ∼800,000 tonnes of CO 2 e by 2045. • Future sea level rise could increase the opportunity to 2.2 million tonnes CO 2 e by 2045. • Regional and local projects could generate up to 23 tonnes CO 2 e ha−1 considering a crediting period of 25 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands are one of the most biologically productive ecosystems. Wetland ecosystem services, ranging from provision of food security to climate change mitigation, are enormous, far outweighing those of dryland ecosystems per hectare. However, land use change and water regulation infrastructure have reduced connectivity in many river systems and with floodplain and estuarine wetlands. Mangrove forests are critical communities for carbon uptake and storage, pollution control and detoxification, and regulation of natural hazards. Although the clearing of mangroves in Australia is strictly regulated, Great Barrier Reef catchments have suffered landscape modifications and hydrological alterations that can kill mangroves. We used remote sensing datasets to investigate land cover change and both intra- and inter-annual seasonality in mangrove forests in a large estuarine region of Central Queensland, Australia, which encompasses a national park and Ramsar Wetland, and is adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage site. We built a time series using spectral, auxiliary, and phenology variables with Landsat surface reflectance products, accessed in Google Earth Engine. Two land cover classes were generated (mangrove versus non-mangrove) in a Random Forest classification. Mangroves decreased by 1480 hectares (−2.31%) from 2009 to 2019. The overall classification accuracies and Kappa coefficient for 2008–2010 and 2018–2020 land cover maps were 95% and 95%, respectively. Using an NDVI-based time series we examined intra- and inter-annual seasonality with linear and harmonic regression models, and second with TIMESAT metrics of mangrove forests in three sections of our study region. Our findings suggest a relationship between mangrove growth phenology along with precipitation anomalies and severe tropical cyclone occurrence over the time series. The detection of responses to extreme events is important to improve understanding of the connections between climate, extreme weather events, and biodiversity in estuarine and mangrove ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia offers an interesting case study of climate policy effectiveness as Australia has 'tried' a wide range of policies to mixed effect. Given that more than half of Australia's greenhouse gas emissions typically come from stationary energy generation, most climate policy in Australia has focussed on electricity sector reform, particularly the uptake of variable renewable energy and the decrease of thermal power generation. Electricity supply in Australia has undergone substantial change over recent years, substantially due to these policies, and needs to continue changing in the future to meet climate change mitigation targets and ensure stable, cost-effective electricity supply. This paper is therefore written from the perspective of an electricity planner and seeks to learn from the experiences of climate policies tried over recent decades. We start by reviewing the history of Australian energy policy and a description of how the Australian electricity network is structured to operate. We examine the theory and effects of different policies tried, which range from renewable energy targets, carbon pricing schemes, subsidies for renewable energy and research and development initiatives. We make three key observations from the case analysis: (1) that there has been substantial expense and effort effectively wasted through duplicate effects of different policy mechanisms by both federal and state governments; (2) as various mechanisms enable variable renewable energy generation to increase, the market becomes distorted, increasing total system costs and decreasing system robustness and resilience; and (3) the narrowed focus of climate policy mechanisms on certain variable renewables, such as solar photovoltaic and wind generation, omitted the opportunity for uptake of scale-able low carbon, firm generation options, like nuclear power and carbon capture and storage. • Australia has had a variable approach to emissions reduction to date. • Policy duplication across federal and state levels leads to inefficiency. • Market distortions can impact investment with negative system outcomes. • Narrowing the policy path can discount options too early. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the drivers of soil organic carbon (SOC) change over time and confidence to predict changes in SOC are essential to the development and long-term viability of SOC trading schemes. This study investigated temporal changes in total SOC, total nitrogen (N), and carbon (C) fractions (particulate organic carbon - POC, resistant organic carbon - ROC and humus organic carbon - HOC) over a 16-year period for four contrasting farming systems in a low rainfall environment (424 mm) at Condobolin, Australia. The farming systems were 1) conventional tillage mixed farming (CT); 2) reduced tillage mixed farming (RT); 3) continuous cropping (CC); and 4) perennial pasture (PP). The SOC dynamics were also modelled using APSIM C and N modules, to determine the accuracy of this model. Results are presented in the context of land managers participating in Australian climate change mitigation schemes. There was an increase in SOC for all farming systems over the first 12 years (total organic C, TOC% at 0–10 cm increased from 1.33% to 1.77%), which was predominately in the POC% fraction (POC% at 0–10 cm increased from 0.14% to 0.5%). Between 2012 and 2015, there was a decrease in SOC back to starting levels (TOC = 1.22% POC = 0.12% at 0–10 cm) in all systems. The PP system had higher TOC%, POC% and HOC% levels on average and higher SOC stocks to 30 cm depth at the final measurement in 2015 (PP = 30.43 t C ha−1; cropping systems = 23.71 t C ha−1), compared to the other farming systems. There was a decrease in TN% over time in all farming systems except PP. The average C:N increased from 14.1 in 1999 to 19.7 in 2012, after which time the SOC levels decreased and C:N dropped back to 15.8. The temporal change in SOC was not able to be represented by the AusFarm model. There are three important conclusions for policy development: 1) monitoring temporal changes in SOC over 12 years did not indicate long-term sequestration, required to assure "permanence" in SOC trading (i.e. 25–100 years) due to the susceptibility of POC to degradation; 2) without monitoring SOC in reference land uses (e.g. CT cropping system as a control in this experiment) it is not possible to determine the net carbon sequestration, and therefore the true climate change mitigation value; and 3) modelling SOC using AusFarm/APSIM, does not fully represent the temporal dynamics of SOC in this low rainfall environment. • Short-term increases in soil C may not represent long-term persistence. • POC increases rapidly but is susceptible to degradation. • Monitoring soil C in reference and changed land uses better predicts abatement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]