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Future changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and climate (CC) affect watershed hydrology. Despite past research on estimating such changes, studies on the impacts of both these nonstationary stressors on urban watersheds have been limited. Urban watersheds have several important details such as hydraulic infrastructure that call for fine-scale models to predict the impacts of LULC and CC on watershed hydrology. In this paper, a fine-scale hydrologic model—Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model (PCSWMM)—was applied to predict the individual and joint impacts of LULC changes and CC on surface runoff attributes (peak and volume) in 3800 urban subwatersheds in Midwest Florida. The subwatersheds a range of characteristics in terms of drainage area, surface imperviousness, ground slope and LULC distribution. The PCSWMM also represented several hydraulic structures (e.g., ponds and pipes) across the subwatersheds. We analyzed changes in the runoff attributes to determine which stressor is most responsible for the changes and what subwatersheds are mostly sensitive to such changes. Six 24-h design rainfall events (5- to 200-year recurrence intervals) were studied under historical (2010) and future (year 2070) climate and LULC. We evaluated the response of the subwatersheds in terms of runoff peak and volume to the design rainfall events using the PCSWMM. The results indicated that, overall, CC has a greater impact on the runoff attributes than LULC change. We also found that LULC and climate induced changes in runoff are generally more pronounced in greater recurrence intervals and subwatersheds with smaller drainage areas and milder slopes. However, no relationship was found between the changes in runoff and original subwatershed imperviousness; this can be due to the small increase in urban land cover projected for the study area. This research helps urban planners and floodplain managers identify the required strategies to protect urban watersheds against future LULC change and CC. [Display omitted] • Changes in runoff attributes due to CC and LULC change in 3800 urban watersheds. • Greater changes for runoff peak than volume. • Greater changes in both runoff attributes for milder slope and smaller watersheds. • Dominant impacts of CC over LULC change for both runoff attribute. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uninformed buyers may pay more when purchasing complex assets, such as houses. This paper compares local house buyers who are later foreclosed with those not foreclosed for various buyer-types, namely, owner-occupier households, investor-companies, second-home buyers, and small-scale investors. Data from one of the foreclosure epicenters, Orange County, Florida, reveal that subsequent foreclosures are associated with higher prices for comparable housing at the time of purchase. The premium paid by buyers between 2000 and 2007 who experience foreclosure after 2007 is larger closer to the 2007 market peak, approaching 3 percent. We find considerable heterogeneity across buyer-types. In particular, foreclosed second-home buyers and small-scale investors systematically pay more, while investor-companies and owner-occupiers do not. The pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that the premium paid by foreclosed households reflects poor information or limited financial acumen. • This paper compares buyers who are later foreclosed with those not foreclosed. • Buyer include investor-companies, owner-occupiers, second-home buyers, and small-scale investors. • Data cover one of the foreclosure epicenters, Orange County, Florida. • We find that buyers who experience foreclosure after 2007 pay more for comparable housing. • We find considerable heterogeneity across buyer-types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract High resolution hydrodynamic models are computationally expensive to run – especially if ensemble forecasts are desired. This can be problematic within coastal estuaries which are not well resolved by today's operational meteorological forecast models. As an alternative, this paper evaluates the wind forcing for three setup parameterizations (based on the Zuiderzee, modified Zuiderzee, and long wave equations) using a combination of observed setup from in-situ water level gauges and local wind observations. In addition, three methods are explored for developing hourly time series of wind forcing from 5-min observations: top of the hour, hourly mean, and wind run approach. The wind forcings, which are weighted by the length of two lagoon-oriented axes, are used to drive the setup parameterizations. The observed setup is used to tune each of the parameterizations via a least squares approach. The observation spread, linear model residuals, coefficient of determination (R2), and root mean squared error (RMSE) indicate that the wind run out performs the other two methods. In terms of the three parameterizations, the modified Zuiderzee had consistently higher R2 values, lower RMSE, and narrower 95% confidence intervals than the two other methods. This optimized parameterization is currently being used operationally to generate ensemble setup forecasts for the Indian River Lagoon, a restricted estuary on Florida's east-central coast. These simple ensemble forecasts are designed to guide the National Weather Service (NWS) in identifying potentially significant setup events that warrant high resolution hydrodynamic simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on college dropout has largely addressed early exit from school, even though a large share of students who do not earn degrees leave after their second year. In this paper, we offer new evidence on the scope of college late departure. Using administrative data from Florida and Ohio, we conduct an event history analysis of the dropout process as a function of credit attainment. Our results indicate that late departure is widespread, particularly at two- and open-admission four-year institutions. We estimate that 14 percent of all entrants to college and one-third of all dropouts completed at least three-quarters of the credits that are typically required to graduate before leaving without a degree. Our results also indicate that the probability of departure spikes as students near the finish line. Amidst considerable policy attention towards improving student outcomes in college, our findings point to promising new avenues for intervention to increase postsecondary attainment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Thrips chose flush foliage over reproductive tissues. • In the absence of flush foliage, thrips chose reproductive tissues. • Thrips directly damage host reproductive tissues and survive to adulthood. • Tissues differed in their volatile constituents. The biological control agent, Pseudophilothrips ichini, is being released for control of Brazilian peppertree, Schinus terebinthifolia (Anacardiaceae), an invasive weed of natural and agricultural areas of California, Florida, Hawaii, and Texas (USA). The thrips larvae and adults feed on flushed leaves and stems that are produced during the vegetative season of the host. However, during the reproductive season from September to December in Florida, few flushing leaves are available as resources are shunted to plant reproduction. As field releases were being implemented, thrips were found feeding and damaging immature fruits and flowers of their host. We hypothesized that the thrips used volatile organic compounds produced by reproductive tissues to locate and feed on these tissues. When examined under laboratory choice tests, individual thrips or groups of either 20 adults or larvae, chose flushing leaves over all reproductive tissues, female flowers, male flowers, and immature fruit. However, to simulate seasons when few flushing leaves were available, additional choice tests were conducted where flushing leaves were omitted, and only reproductive tissues and a filter paper control were included. Individual thrips or groups of either 20 adults or larvae selected all reproductive tissues over controls. When presented with a choice between immature and mature fruit, thrips chose immature fruit. Thrips caused significant damage to live female flowers, male flowers, and immature fruit, and thrips survival rates were similar when fed flush leaves, female flowers, or male flowers. The thrips responses could be tied to VOC production, which significantly varied among tissue types. Volatile blends from flush leaves that include DMNT, Terpinolene, and δ-Elemene may attract P. ichini whereas those that repel them include α-Thujene, α-Pinene, β-Pinene, Camphene, and β-Phellandrene. These results suggest P. ichini has a flexible feeding strategy and exploits Brazilian peppertree reproductive tissues when few flushing tips were available. Further they suggest thrips feeding will have direct impacts on Brazilian peppertree reproduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impact of hurricanes on housing markets and population turnover using microdata from Florida during 2000–2016. We find that hurricanes cause a temporary increase in home prices and a concurrent decrease in transactions, which together imply a negative transitory shock to the housing supply. Using mortgage application data, we find that incoming homeowners in this period have higher incomes, leading to an overall shift toward wealthier groups. Our findings suggest that market responses to natural disasters can lead to uneven and lasting demographic changes in affected communities, even with a full recovery in physical capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many coastal urban areas are experiencing impacts of accelerated chronic and episodic flooding on the built environment and people's livelihoods and quality of life. These impacts sometimes exceed the households' adaptive and coping capacities to deal with flooding, prompting residents to consider relocation. It is unclear how urban dwellers living in flood-prone locations perceive this adaptation strategy and under what flood-driven circumstances they would consider permanently moving. This paper provides empirical evidence on relocation preferences among urban residents along the U.S. East Coast. It further explores how this decision is influenced by socioeconomic determinants, experiences with flood exposure, comprehensive concerns with flooding, and preferences for relocation destinations. We administered an online survey to 1450 residents living in flood-prone urban areas across multiple states, from New York to Florida, and analyzed the results using descriptive and inferential statistics. Results show that almost half of respondents would consider relocating due to coastal flooding, with only 13 percent declining this option. The results show that age and race, several determinants of place attachment, problem-solving capacity, and flood-related household- and community-level concerns play a significant role in willingness to relocate. • Accelerated flooding in coastal urban areas will increase the need for relocation. • Empirical evidence about coastal relocation drivers is limited. • Survey responses indicate that many urban coastal residents are willing to relocate. • Willingness to relocate is affected by age and race, and other personal concerns. • Crime, future flooding, community support, and living costs predict relocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops and solves a spatiotemporal equilibrium model in which regional wages and house prices are jointly determined with location-to-location migration flows. The agent's optimal location choice and the resultant migration process are shown to be Markovian, with the transition probabilities across all location pairs given as non-linear functions of wage and housing cost differentials, endogenously responding to migration flows. The model can be used for the analysis of spatial distribution of population, income, and house prices, as well as for spatiotemporal impulse response analysis. The model is estimated on a panel of 48 mainland U.S. states and the District of Columbia using the training sample (1976–1999), and shown to fit the data well over the evaluation sample (2000–2014). The estimated model is then used to analyze the size and speed of spatial spill-over effects by computing spatiotemporal impulse responses of positive productivity and land-supply shocks to California, Texas, and Florida. Our simulation results show that states with a lower level of land-use regulation can benefit more from positive state-specific productivity shocks; and positive land-supply shocks are much more effective in states, such as California, that are subject to more stringent land-use regulations. • We propose a spatiotemporal equilibrium model of the housing market. • The dynamics of location-to-location migration flows are explicitly modeled. • The estimated model is used to analyze the size and speed of spatial spill-over effects. • States with less land-use regulation benefit more from positive productivity shocks. • Land-supply shocks are more effective in states with stringent land-use regulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Since the Great Recession, single-family rentals have increased as a share of the housing units within America's neighborhoods. • Homeowners are concerned that single-family rentals will lower their neighborhood's quality and have an adverse effect on their property values. • Results show that an increase in single-family rentals as a share of a neighborhood's housing units lower house values. • The negative effects of single-family rentals on a neighborhood's house values vary by type of rental and neighborhood. • Estimated models control for the endogeneity of single-family rentals and sample selection. Since the Great Recession, single-family rentals have increased as a share of the housing units within America's neighborhoods. Homeowners are concerned that this shift in housing tenure will lower their neighborhood's quality and have an adverse effect on their property values. However, no current evidence exists on whether these concerns have any validity. In this paper, we utilize a six-year balanced panel of neighborhoods from the state of Florida's metropolitan areas to study the impacts that single-family rentals have on the values of single-family homes. Our case for causality is buttressed by estimating house value models that include time and neighborhood fixed effects, treat the rentals as endogenous variables, and control for sample selection and changes in neighborhood demographics and land uses. Our results show that share increases in single-family rentals lower house values, but the effects vary between central cities and suburbs, across neighborhoods of different income levels and density, by the price of the rental unit, and whether the owner has a mailing address outside the state of Florida. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some socioeconomically vulnerable groups may experience disproportionately higher risk of extreme heat illness than other groups, but no study has utilized the presence/absence of a social security number (SSN) as a proxy for vulnerable sub-populations. This study focused on the warm season from 2008 to 2012 in Florida, U.S. With a total number of 8,256,171 individual level health outcomes, we devised separate case-crossover models for five heat-sensitive health outcomes (cardiovascular disease, dehydration, heat-related illness, renal disease, and respiratory disease), type of health care visit (emergency department (ED) and hospitalization), and patients reporting/not reporting an SSN. Each stratified model also considered potential effect modification by sex, age, or race/ethnicity. Mean temperature raised the odds of five heat-sensitive health outcomes with the highest odds ratios (ORs) for heat-related illness. Sex significantly modified heat exposure effects for dehydration ED visits (Males: 1.145, 95 % CI: 1.137–1.153; Females: 1.110, 95 % CI: 1.103–1.117) and hospitalization (Males: 1.116, 95 % CI: 1.110–1.121; Females: 1.100, 95 % CI: 1.095–1.105). Patients not reporting an SSN between 25 and 44 years (1.264, 95 % CI: 1.192–1.340) exhibited significantly higher dehydration ED ORs than those reporting an SSN (1.146, 95 % CI: 1.136–1.157). We also observed significantly higher ORs for cardiovascular disease hospitalization from the no SSN group (SSN: 1.089, 95 % CI: 1.088–1.090; no SSN: 1.100, 95 % CI: 1.091–1.110). This paper partially supports the idea that individuals without an SSN could experience higher risks of dehydration (for those 25–45 years), renal disease, and cardiovascular disease than those with an SSN. • The first study with more than 8 million heat-related health outcomes in Florida. • Social security number was used to detect subpopulations vulnerable to extreme heat. • Sex significantly modified heat exposure effects for dehydration health outcomes. • No SSN group had higher risks of dehydration, renal, and cardiovascular disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental regulators often use dynamic enforcement, which bases penalties and enforcement effort on plants' past compliance history, to improve compliance and decrease emissions when enforcement resources are limited. Using plant-level data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), I examine an unexpected shift in the use of traditional enforcement by environmental regulators in Florida, showing that all of the state's plants decreased emissions and improved compliance following an increase in penalties for those with Priority Violations. The largest improvements were observed among plants with the highest expected costs of compliance, which is consistent with the theory of dynamic enforcement. These results are robust to the use of control plants from nearby southern states, as well as control plants selected via a matching algorithm. The paper's findings (1) provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effectiveness of traditional enforcement actions, and (2) suggest that dynamic incentives may matter for plant compliance decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]